CryptoLatino

El oro finalmente romperá al alza, pero no será tan fácil. La volatilidad por la guerra en el Medio Oriente, la alta inflación debido a los precios del petróleo, entre otros factores, se mantendrá durante un tiempo.
Los mercados financieros rara vez se mueven en línea recta. Sin embargo, a pesar de las preocupaciones persistentes sobre la inflación, la geopolítica y el enfriamiento del crecimiento económico, existe un argumento alcista convincente para los activos de riesgo durante los próximos dos a tres meses. Aunque la incertidumbre sigue elevada, varios factores macroeconómicos y del mercado se están alineando de una manera que podría respaldar la continuación de la actual subida.

If the dollar collapses to 2,800 pesos in 2026, the carry trade — a speculative strategy that has supported the Colombian peso this year — could become a source of financial instability, with cascading effects on exports, remittances, and monetary policy.
The colombian carry trade is based on the anomalies that the dollar would cause to exporting companies in Colombia among others. This thesis is not about the opportunities for travel and shopping, which I will address in a different article.
The other day I was talking to a couple of neighbors that are in the business of selling used cars, they had made a comfortable livelyhood for a couple decades, now they're worried, their sales are down due to crashing prices of new vehicles being imported into the country. Nonetheless, I told them that when dollar rises against the peso, many people who bought those vehicles through credit will be crying because many of those owners signed those letters of credit...on dollars, not pesos. New car owners will see their car-payments increase 10-20% in just matter of months.
What is the carry trade and why does it matter in Colombia?
The carry trade is an investment strategy that involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates (like the US dollar) to invest in assets denominated in another currency with higher yields (like the Colombian peso). Its profitability depends on two factors: the interest rate differential and the exchange rate movement.
In 2026, Colombia has been one of the most attractive emerging markets for this strategy thanks to its high local interest rates combined with a weak global dollar. This has driven an appreciation of the peso of around 14% in the last year, making it one of the strongest currencies in the region.
The risk scenario: dollar at $2,800
A fall in the dollar to 2,800 pesos would represent a significant additional depreciation compared to current levels (which fluctuate between 3,600 and 3,800 pesos). Although extreme, this scenario would expose several vulnerabilities:
1. Abrupt unwinding of speculative positions
The carry trade is highly sensitive to episodes of higher global risk aversion. When investors perceive signs of fiscal unsustainability, political uncertainty, or a deterioration in external conditions, they tend to unwind positions simultaneously, which amplifies currency swings.
The critical feature of these strategies is their asymmetry: gains accumulate gradually, but losses, when they materialize, are abrupt and larger in magnitude. As financial literature puts it: "exchange rates go up the stairs and down the elevator."
2. Impact on exports and productive sectors
Excessive peso appreciation (a cheaper dollar) reduces the competitiveness of Colombian exports. Sectors such as agriculture, mining, and manufacturing would see their peso revenues decline, which could affect the trade balance and employment in regions dependent on these sectors.
3. Hit to remittances and household consumption
Remittances represent about 3% of Colombia's GDP and 3.6% of household spending. In 2025, the country received USD 13,098 million in remittances, an 11% increase from 2024.
If the dollar falls to 2,800 pesos, recipient families would get fewer pesos for every dollar sent, reducing their purchasing power to cover daily expenses like food, rent, and utilities. This effect is concentrated in departments like Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, and Cundinamarca, which receive more than half of the inflows.
4. Pressure on monetary policy
An extremely cheap dollar could complicate management at the Banco de la República. On one hand, it would reduce imported inflationary pressures. On the other, excessive appreciation could force more aggressive rate cuts to curb speculative capital inflows, with risks of overheating in other assets.
Warning signs already on the radar
Analysts like Corficolombiana have warned that the current strength of the peso hides vulnerabilities. The firm projects that without credible signals of commitment to fiscal sustainability, the sovereign risk premium could rise, deflating foreign investor enthusiasm.
In addition, the electoral calendar and country risk perception represent sources of uncertainty. A shock of political distrust could trigger a depreciation of more than 20%, pushing the exchange rate above 4,500 pesos, as happened after the 2022 crisis.
Ideas for investors and policymakers
- For investors: Prepare for a possible reversal of the trend. Some analysts suggest that the peso's appreciation streak could be running out in the coming weeks.
- For the government: Maintain credible signals of fiscal commitment to prevent "hot money" from pulling out abruptly.
- For families: Strengthen precautionary savings and maintain financial planning, given that exchange rate volatility will remain a determining factor.
In short, a dollar at 2,800 pesos in 2026 would not just be an exchange rate figure: it would be the symptom of a massive unwinding of the carry trade, with real consequences for the productive economy, families, and Colombia's macroeconomic stability.
#USDTfree #Colombia

Según Odaily, la capitalización de mercado de la plata tokenizada ha superado recientemente los $300 millones, alcanzando un nuevo pico. Los datos de CoinGecko indican que el valor actual ha disminuido ligeramente a $296,468,235. En los últimos siete días, el mercado ha experimentado un crecimiento de aproximadamente 15%, coincidiendo con el aumento continuo en los precios al contado de la plata.

He estado luchando contra un resfriado, 38.9C hace un par de horas. Primera vez que me enfermo después de la prisión. Este problema ha mantenido su espacio aéreo en mi cabeza durante los últimos días, incluso a través de la fiebre.
Nuestra industria debería ser capaz de erradicar completamente este tipo de ataques venenosos y proteger a nuestros usuarios.

Todos los monederos deberían simplemente verificar si una dirección de recepción es una "dirección venenosa", y bloquear al usuario. Esta es una consulta de blockchain.
Además, las alianzas de seguridad en la industria deberían mantener una lista negra en tiempo real de estas direcciones, para que los monederos puedan verificar antes de enviar una transacción.

Según Cointelegraph, Brasil está contemplando la implementación de un impuesto sobre el uso de criptomonedas para pagos internacionales. Este desarrollo es parte de la estrategia más amplia del país para integrar un marco de intercambio de datos de informes fiscales sobre criptomonedas a nivel global. Un informe de Reuters, citando a funcionarios con conocimiento directo de las discusiones, indica que el gobierno brasileño está interesado en extender el impuesto sobre operaciones financieras (IOF) para abarcar ciertas transacciones transfronterizas basadas en activos digitales.