WAIL SAMI

Tomorrow, Bitcoin options worth approximately $23.6 billion will expire, marking the largest options expiry in Bitcoin’s history. Once market makers unwind their related hedging positions, the support and resistance levels previously formed by the options structure will temporarily lose effectiveness. This could amplify BTC’s volatility in the short term until all participants place new bets and the market establishes a new capital structure.
If BTC retraces to the vicinity of its previous lows (around $80,000–$82,000) during this period, it would present an opportunity to position for a short-term rebound. Volatility during this capital structure vacuum period does not necessarily signal the start of a new leg down.
Moreover, a bullish divergence signal has currently appeared on the smaller timeframe in the “Price vs. Capital Inflow Gradient.” This metric measures the relative momentum change between BTC’s price momentum and actual capital inflows. When the rate of capital outflows slows relative to the rate of BTC price decline, it can be interpreted as a correction to the downtrend, indicating demand for a rebound.
During the 2024–2025 and 2021–2022 periods, all four instances of this bullish divergence signal were followed by rebounds of varying magnitudes, and in some cases even trend reversals. However, given that overall market sentiment remains in a bearish repair phase, the probability of the former outcome (a short-term rebound) is currently higher.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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