Umperium
Smartmoney @Umperium
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Mining tokens from a smartphone – part 5
Once a week, I review for you current opportunities on how to get free tokens using only a smartphone.
Let me remind you that some people call this mining, others token farming, but, in fact, this is just one type of activity. Don't worry, no computational processes take place on the smartphone, as in real mining.
Is there no more alt-season?
Spot ETFs are showing the first signs of life after a week of steady outflows, but overall the crypto market is not in the best shape.
Unrealized losses in the crypto ecosystem recently rose to about 350 billion US dollars, including around 85 billion US dollars just in BTC. Given that several indicators on the blockchain are signaling a reduction in liquidity across the market, the market is likely to enter a phase of high volatility in the coming weeks.
Unrealized losses in the crypto ecosystem recently rose to about 350 billion US dollars, including around 85 billion US dollars just in BTC. Given that several indicators on the blockchain are signaling a reduction in liquidity across the market, the market is likely to enter a phase of high volatility in the coming weeks.
Yesterday's forecast came true - buy on expectations, sell on news. After the Fed's rate cut, Bitcoin fell to 89,500$.
📡The nearest inflation risks are trending upwards. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward. Some Fed members believe we should stop and wait for a rate cut. Analysts see the Fed rate at 3.1% by the end of 2026 and believe that at the US Fed meeting on January 28, the agency will keep the interest rate unchanged.
🏦The Fed will launch QE on December 12. The last time the Fed launched a short-term treasury buyback program (minimal QE) was at the end of 2019. Then there was the COVID crash, and after that, normal QE and new highs.
📡The nearest inflation risks are trending upwards. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward. Some Fed members believe we should stop and wait for a rate cut. Analysts see the Fed rate at 3.1% by the end of 2026 and believe that at the US Fed meeting on January 28, the agency will keep the interest rate unchanged.
🏦The Fed will launch QE on December 12. The last time the Fed launched a short-term treasury buyback program (minimal QE) was at the end of 2019. Then there was the COVID crash, and after that, normal QE and new highs.
What to Expect from BTC After the Fed?
Today is the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in December 2025, following similar cuts in September and October. This will lead to the cost of borrowing dropping to its lowest level since 2022.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased by 116%, rising from $1.7 trillion on January 2, 2024, to $3.7 trillion by October 24, 2025. During the same period, the market value of Bitcoin surged by 151%, from $0.88 trillion to $2.21 trillion, and its price increased from $45,000 to $111,000. The value of Ethereum grew by 68%, from $0.28 trillion to $0.47 trillion (the price rose from $2,360 to $3,950).
👉 According to cryptocurrency market cycle indicators, out of 30 peak formation signals, none have triggered yet. Although it has already been 556 days since the Bitcoin halving, historically, peaks form around the 500th day.
👉 According to cryptocurrency market cycle indicators, out of 30 peak formation signals, none have triggered yet. Although it has already been 556 days since the Bitcoin halving, historically, peaks form around the 500th day.
Which tokens to buy in 2025?
Recently analyzed the portfolios of the largest crypto funds, such as VanEck, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, etc. They have already formed altcoin portfolios and are now taking steps for their growth. In particular, they are applying for spot ETFs.
I remind you, $ETH ETFs almost always have a positive impact on the price of cryptocurrencies (and not just crypto assets). Without an ETF: to buy a token, you need to set up a wallet, understand exchanges, storage, taxes. With an ETF: the investor buys the asset through a regular brokerage account. This opens the market to a huge number of traditional investors (pension funds, banks, institutional, etc.). I will go over the tokens that are expecting the implementation of an ETF in 2025:
I remind you, $ETH ETFs almost always have a positive impact on the price of cryptocurrencies (and not just crypto assets). Without an ETF: to buy a token, you need to set up a wallet, understand exchanges, storage, taxes. With an ETF: the investor buys the asset through a regular brokerage account. This opens the market to a huge number of traditional investors (pension funds, banks, institutional, etc.). I will go over the tokens that are expecting the implementation of an ETF in 2025:
How will the Fed's rate affect Bitcoin?
Today is an important day on the calendar for financial markets. The Fed's decision on interest rates and the speech by Fed Chairman Powell. Also, today the data on the US labor market, the GDP of the States for the second quarter, and the quarterly core personal consumption expenditure price index in the US will be released.
Last week, the inflow of funds into digital investment assets amounted to $1.9 billion, bringing the total inflow since the beginning of the month to a record $11.2 billion.
The inflow sharply increased to record monthly highs amid a rally led by Ethereum. The inflow of funds into Ethereum was $1.59 billion, making it the second largest of the week, and since the beginning of the year has exceeded the figures of 2024. Solana and XRP also demonstrated a strong inflow of funds, indicating more of a potential ETF launch than a broad altcoin season. Bitcoin recorded a slight outflow ($175 million).
The total market capitalization of USDT is already $163.6 billion. July is undoubtedly leading in USDT "printing" volumes in 2025, with already $8 billion. The closest in volume are April and May, each with $6 billion.
The inflow sharply increased to record monthly highs amid a rally led by Ethereum. The inflow of funds into Ethereum was $1.59 billion, making it the second largest of the week, and since the beginning of the year has exceeded the figures of 2024. Solana and XRP also demonstrated a strong inflow of funds, indicating more of a potential ETF launch than a broad altcoin season. Bitcoin recorded a slight outflow ($175 million).
The total market capitalization of USDT is already $163.6 billion. July is undoubtedly leading in USDT "printing" volumes in 2025, with already $8 billion. The closest in volume are April and May, each with $6 billion.
🦾Token $FUN has found its niche in the growing gaming and betting industry. Over 100,000 people already hold FUN in the network!
🔥Just a reminder, 12 million FUN have been permanently burned and have disappeared forever. This means that the token could very well soar upwards.
I'm waiting for a pump! I hope my expectations will be met.
🔥Just a reminder, 12 million FUN have been permanently burned and have disappeared forever. This means that the token could very well soar upwards.
I'm waiting for a pump! I hope my expectations will be met.
The flows and dynamics of Bitcoin are heating up. After the breakout, the price entered the overbought zone. Glassnode notes a significant decrease in the ratio between the supply held by long-term and short-term holders, which is a sign of profit-taking and a shift from accumulation to distribution.
Today, U.S. President Trump wished for a "happy crypto week" and urged Congress to support the digital asset legislation.
As part of Crypto Week, the House of Representatives will consider two key bills for the crypto market — GENIUS and CLARITY, which could determine the future of the crypto industry in the country. GENIUS tightens the requirements for backing stablecoins and introduces audits for large issuers, while Clarity establishes clear rules for the entire crypto market for the first time.
Both documents have sparked heated debates: Republicans insist on innovation, while Democrats focus on the risks of corruption and insufficient consumer protection. If Trump signs GENIUS, it will be a landmark step towards the legalization of digital assets in the U.S. Voting on CLARITY is expected on Wednesday, and on GENIUS — on Thursday.
Today, U.S. President Trump wished for a "happy crypto week" and urged Congress to support the digital asset legislation.
As part of Crypto Week, the House of Representatives will consider two key bills for the crypto market — GENIUS and CLARITY, which could determine the future of the crypto industry in the country. GENIUS tightens the requirements for backing stablecoins and introduces audits for large issuers, while Clarity establishes clear rules for the entire crypto market for the first time.
Both documents have sparked heated debates: Republicans insist on innovation, while Democrats focus on the risks of corruption and insufficient consumer protection. If Trump signs GENIUS, it will be a landmark step towards the legalization of digital assets in the U.S. Voting on CLARITY is expected on Wednesday, and on GENIUS — on Thursday.
Bitcoin has updated its price maximum at the level of 112.600$ and continues to rise. Meanwhile, corporate interest in Bitcoin reached new highs in the second quarter of 2025: companies added a record 159,107 BTC to their balances, which at current prices amounts to over $17.6 billion.
📈Overall, BTC is rising amid global liquidity. In July, BTC may experience the seasonal pattern "Bitcoin Bastille Day Rally," which has repeated for many years in a row. According to this pattern, Bitcoin actively rises in the second half of July, with the peak growth occurring on July 30; after which the 10 worst weeks of the year for BTC begin.
📈Overall, BTC is rising amid global liquidity. In July, BTC may experience the seasonal pattern "Bitcoin Bastille Day Rally," which has repeated for many years in a row. According to this pattern, Bitcoin actively rises in the second half of July, with the peak growth occurring on July 30; after which the 10 worst weeks of the year for BTC begin.
Which altcoins to buy in July?
🔥Friends often ask which altcoins to buy? In my opinion, Bitcoin should occupy the main part of the portfolio (60%). As for altcoins, it's worth paying attention to the portfolio of the largest crypto fund Grayscale, which invests billions in crypto.
🦾Moreover, the Grayscale fund makes adjustments to its portfolio every quarter. For example, in July, Grayscale gets rid of Polkadot $DOT and adds Hedera $HBAR to its smart contracts fund. Grayscale has also filed an application with the SEC to create an exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the Hedera (HBAR) asset, and the SEC has officially launched a comment period. Against this backdrop, HBAR has risen by 2–7%, and the market notes increasing institutional interest. That is, they are not only buying tokens but also filing for the creation of an exchange-traded fund, which positively affects the price – brilliant...
🦾Moreover, the Grayscale fund makes adjustments to its portfolio every quarter. For example, in July, Grayscale gets rid of Polkadot $DOT and adds Hedera $HBAR to its smart contracts fund. Grayscale has also filed an application with the SEC to create an exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the Hedera (HBAR) asset, and the SEC has officially launched a comment period. Against this backdrop, HBAR has risen by 2–7%, and the market notes increasing institutional interest. That is, they are not only buying tokens but also filing for the creation of an exchange-traded fund, which positively affects the price – brilliant...
If we draw analogies with other cycles, we are now approaching the finale. By October, we should see the long-awaited altseason and a peak in BTC.
It is worth noting that ETH has always been a precursor to altseason. The inflow of ETH spot ETFs has remained strong for eight consecutive weeks. The mass of stablecoins is also growing. Binance's reserves in USDT and USDC reached a historical maximum in June 2025 — 31 billion dollars.
This is a historical maximum and a clear signal that crypto capital is taking a wait-and-see approach. If stablecoins flow into altcoins, we may be on the brink of a sharp and sudden rally.
As for the current situation, while trading in BTC is above the mark of 105.000$ , the chances for continued growth and a new historical maximum will be quite high.
It is worth noting that ETH has always been a precursor to altseason. The inflow of ETH spot ETFs has remained strong for eight consecutive weeks. The mass of stablecoins is also growing. Binance's reserves in USDT and USDC reached a historical maximum in June 2025 — 31 billion dollars.
This is a historical maximum and a clear signal that crypto capital is taking a wait-and-see approach. If stablecoins flow into altcoins, we may be on the brink of a sharp and sudden rally.
As for the current situation, while trading in BTC is above the mark of 105.000$ , the chances for continued growth and a new historical maximum will be quite high.
Bitcoin is slowing down...
Bitcoin finished June with a return of +2.49%. A rather modest result, in April and May 2025, Bitcoin showed +14.08% and +10.99% respectively.
👨💻 It is worth noting that since 2013, in July the asset has risen 8 times and there have been only 4 instances of decline.
🚀 The current bull market has lasted for 952 days (calculated from the minimum of $15,504 on November 21, 2022) and has so far provided investors with 6.2x from the cycle bottom.
Due to the growth in capitalization, the returns of cycles are decreasing:
- The 2018-2022 cycle lasted 1060 days and gave 22x
- The 2015-2017 cycle lasted 850 days and gave 100x
Bitcoin finished June with a return of +2.49%. A rather modest result, in April and May 2025, Bitcoin showed +14.08% and +10.99% respectively.
👨💻 It is worth noting that since 2013, in July the asset has risen 8 times and there have been only 4 instances of decline.
🚀 The current bull market has lasted for 952 days (calculated from the minimum of $15,504 on November 21, 2022) and has so far provided investors with 6.2x from the cycle bottom.
Due to the growth in capitalization, the returns of cycles are decreasing:
- The 2018-2022 cycle lasted 1060 days and gave 22x
- The 2015-2017 cycle lasted 850 days and gave 100x
When to sell Bitcoin in 2025?
Want to know the exact date to sell $BTC this year? As is known, if following the global trends of the four-year cycle, this year you should sell bitcoin, and next year you should buy...
The Bitcoin H-Clock model indicates a peak 542 days after the last halving, with a bottom 521 days before the next one.
The Bitcoin H-Clock model indicates a peak 542 days after the last halving, with a bottom 521 days before the next one.
🎯Intriguing statistics against the backdrop of the Iran-Israel confrontation.
🪙 It turns out that Bitcoin reacts better to major geopolitical events than gold and stocks, both over 10-day and 60-day timeframes.
📈In the last 20 major geopolitical risk events, it has on average increased by +64.6% on average 50 days after the risk event (+17.3% median). Therefore, this summer we may well see 120.000$ and above for $BTC.
🪙 It turns out that Bitcoin reacts better to major geopolitical events than gold and stocks, both over 10-day and 60-day timeframes.
📈In the last 20 major geopolitical risk events, it has on average increased by +64.6% on average 50 days after the risk event (+17.3% median). Therefore, this summer we may well see 120.000$ and above for $BTC.
Stablecoins Indicate Upcoming Growth
The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $3 trillion, and to be honest, that’s quite an inflated figure. What matters much more is the market capitalization of stablecoins, which reached a record $228 billion, increasing by $33 billion (+17%) in 2025. And this is real fuel for the market.
Let me remind you, the U.S. is currently expecting the adoption of a stablecoin law, after which they will acquire an official status of maximum protection and guarantees from the government.
Let me remind you, the U.S. is currently expecting the adoption of a stablecoin law, after which they will acquire an official status of maximum protection and guarantees from the government.
Checklist: Signs of the Start of Altseason
1. Bitcoin dominance starts to fall Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) drops below key levels (for example, 50–48%). This means that capital is moving into altcoins.
2. BTC starts to flatline or grows sluggishly If BTC is rising too quickly - it "eats up" attention and liquidity. Altseason more often starts when BTC is stable or moderately correcting.
2. BTC starts to flatline or grows sluggishly If BTC is rising too quickly - it "eats up" attention and liquidity. Altseason more often starts when BTC is stable or moderately correcting.
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