Today is the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in December 2025, following similar cuts in September and October. This will lead to the cost of borrowing dropping to its lowest level since 2022.

📉The regulator has completed the reduction of the portfolio of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet. The quantitative tightening (QT) program ended on December 1. With the end of this period, which removed liquidity from the market, a rate cut may act as a catalyst for growth.

👉Given that the market has already partially priced in the expectation of a rate cut, the actual change in rates will not be the main event. I would say there is a 50–60% chance that the price $BTC will either consolidate sideways or correct downwards. True volatility will stem from what Powell says about liquidity and how the Fed assesses the current stress in funding markets.

🎲Globally, a potential easing of monetary policy strengthens expectations for the growth of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, but the market is currently facing liquidity challenges.