刘小伍

$SPCX SpaceX fair value cut to 222.71

Currently $155, down 4.74% in 24 hours

Its strongest week in more than three months, and one bearish candle today wiped out all the gains it had built up.

Volume over the past three days was 1.7 times that of the previous 20 days. Today’s volume was distribution volume.

The pressure came from Tesla: quarterly profits fell, while the company is also discussing a merger with SpaceX. Both stocks slid before the market opened.

Morningstar raised Tesla’s fair value from 450 to 475, citing stronger FSD adoption and lower spending assumptions. That news didn’t lift the stock premarket.

Investors are focused on profits; the story comes second.

For SpaceX, the model price was cut from 227.54 to 222.71. The point of disagreement is growth risk.

Some have calculated that it would take decades for this price to be realized. Morningstar puts the reuse of the upper stage at the end of 2028.

Today’s sell-off wasn’t driven by the investors focused on valuation. It was a combination of the merger story losing steam and traders taking profits after a week of gains.

167 is the high from the past two weeks. The rebound ran out of steam when it reached that level.

Unless it can break above that level, the bounce is just a recovery. If it closes above 167, my bearish view no longer holds.

140 is the low for the month. If it breaks below that, the month’s trading range will be completely invalidated.

The more likely next move is a test of 140. Any rebound will have to wait until the shares bought by those who chased the rally are absorbed.

$SPCX

$IOST Down a third in one day, yet still up 10% net over seven days

Trading at $0.000912, down 33.92% in 24 hours

It’s too early to talk about a bottom.

This drop wiped out the leverage built up over the past seven days. The price is still nearly 30% above its monthly low, so there’s room to fall if it heads lower.

IOST is a public blockchain launched in 2018, focused on high TPS. Its market cap is just over $30 million, and it ranks outside the top 600.

Sequoia invested early on, so its foundations aren’t bad. But the market is tiny, and it doesn’t take much money to push the price up or dump it.

Trading volume over the past three days was more than 100 times that of the previous 20 days, as the price retreated all the way from its monthly high.

This much volume alongside a bearish candle points to distribution.

The funding rate is negative, so crowded shorts are paying to stay in their positions. The more crowded the shorts get, the more likely a bounce comes first—so don’t expect a straight drop.

If the rebound reaches the round-number level of 0.001 but can’t break above it or hold there, don’t expect much upside;

If it does hold above that level, my bearish view is invalidated.

Next, it’ll probably bounce first, get rejected at that level, then head lower to test the lows around the start of the month. Expect some back-and-forth along the way.

#IOST

$SNXX Current price: $9.68 (24h -9.53%)

Super Micro Computer raised its full-year revenue guidance to $18.5–19.5 billion and also said gross margins would expand, yet its stock fell 6.69% today. Earnings expectations went up while the share price went down—the money in this supply chain is cashing out.

Micron, Dell, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise all fell today. Western Digital was the only one to hold up, gaining 0.13%, while semiconductor ETFs fell 2.05% overall.

The drag came from server systems, pulling storage down with them.

All the moving averages are overhead and heading down. The price is hovering not far above its monthly low, and is still more than halfway below its monthly high.

Today's bearish candle left $10.80 overhead.

If it can't reclaim $10.80, the downward grind remains the path;

if it does close above that level, the case for this leg down will have to be reassessed.

As of October 20, VanEck's ETFs still had a combined net inflow of $360 million. Money hasn't left semiconductors—it just didn't flow into storage today.

Yesterday, some people were calling Sandisk cheap at 17.6 times earnings.

After an 851% gain over the past year, a 25.6% pullback is what made it look cheap.

First, it may grind down toward the monthly low. It's still 18% away from that level.

Measured against its range since listing, the price is still more than halfway below its high.

$SNXX

$SOXL Volume doubled, while the price remains 43% below the monthly high

Trading at $96.59, down 8.57% in 24 hours

Even after falling this far, it still hasn’t found a bottom. Volume over the past three days was twice that of the previous 20 days, but even that much trading couldn’t support the price.

The entire semiconductor sector weakened today, and this moved in tandem with it. There was no separate announcement from any of its constituents.

The price is only a little over 10% above the monthly low. The two daily moving averages overhead are still far away; the price hasn’t touched either one during this downturn.

To turn upward, it first needs to break through the round-number level of 100.

If it can’t get above that level, these rebounds along the way are just pauses in the decline.

The index it tracks is heavily weighted toward a few major companies. When they all weaken together, this fund has nowhere to hide.

This has nothing to do with any one company’s earnings; the entire semiconductor chain is moving lower.

I think it will go on to test the monthly low. I don’t see the rebounds along the way as a reversal.

$SOXL

SPCX up 13% in a day: Are profits or the merger driving the rally?

Price at $166 (24h +13.58%)

The profit numbers are real, but the merger story is still up in the air. Today, the stock jumped 13 points on the story alone.

Musk himself first floated the idea, saying “a merger is a good idea.” Shareholders ran with it, putting the math for combining Tesla, SpaceXAI, and X into one group on the table.

Neither company has confirmed anything. The news is still at the “possible” stage, and the less concrete it gets, the more people try to get in early.

The third-quarter books are out: revenue of $14.58 billion, profit of $4.4 billion, and AI revenue up ninefold.

But the $19.6 billion in expenses really stands out, and institutions immediately started picking at the cost issue.

Profits look good, costs put people off, and money is being pulled in both directions.

All the daily moving averages are below the price, so they aren’t acting as resistance. The issue is that the previous high is close overhead.

Volume is up 1.7x, but the stock still hasn’t broken through the previous high. The move looks weak, so chasing it doesn’t seem worthwhile.

My expectation is that it consolidates here first. If it can’t reach the previous high, it may pull back to around 140.

140 was the platform where this move began. A drop back there would put the structure to the test; if it breaks below, this entire rally will have been for nothing.

I’m bearish on this move and won’t chase it before it breaks above the previous high.

$SPCX

$SOXL , still 48.8% below its listing high

At $105, up 10.44% in 24 hours

Volume over three days reached 2.6 times the total for the previous 20 days, while the net gain over seven days was less than 1%.

Money is changing hands back and forth, but the price is standing still. That tells you what this rebound is really worth.

The price is still below the halfway point.

Earnings season is approaching, and the semiconductor reports will be a major focus.

Leveraged ETFs don’t wait for earnings to come out; they rebalance their positions every day. A week of sideways trading, and decay comes straight out of the fund’s net asset value.

On the daily chart, the price is still a long way from those two moving averages above. This rebound hasn’t even reached the threshold.

Those two lines are sloping downward, and every inch of this rebound is giving trapped holders room to get out.

86.37 was where this bounce started, and it was also the month’s low. If it breaks below that level, everyone who jumped in today and those who bought the dip earlier will have to rethink their positions. There aren’t many orders waiting below.

This is just a technical bounce after being oversold. Don’t mistake it for a trend reversal.

Until the underlying stock turns around, this rebound is just giving sellers time to unload.

For now, I’m inclined to think it will move up to test those two moving averages. If it can’t reach them, it’ll get pushed back down, then turn around and test 86.37 again.

If it truly gets back above the moving averages, the bearish thesis is no longer valid.

$SOXL

$WLD Up 17% in two days!!!

Price at $0.589 (24h +9.32%)

I’d say today’s buying in WLD is genuine.

The bears are feeling the pressure overhead. Since the dip to last Sunday’s low, it’s rallied 17%. Buying volume only started coming in Monday night, and today’s move is basically a continuation of that buying.

Analysts are weighing in too: they like the chart, they like the coin, and they think there may be an announcement coming. Public endorsements like these usually don’t happen at the bottom, but the price hasn’t fallen, so the people making these calls are effectively going along with the buying.

Those who bought near Sunday night’s low have the most confidence now; the bears can only grit their teeth.

Funding is only slightly positive, so today’s rally isn’t overcrowded;

Open interest is still elevated. If $0.55 gives way, these positions could all rush for the exits.

My level to watch is also $0.55. That’s where Sunday’s move started. If it breaks, both today’s buyers and those who bought the dip will have to rethink their positions.

I’m still treating this as a strong market tonight.

#WLD

$MSTR $2.8 billion in passive selling hangs over Strategy’s index eligibility

Current price: $143 (24h: +2.92%)

This rebound doesn’t have staying power; volume hasn’t followed through.

Average volume over the past three days is about the same as over the prior twenty. Today’s green candle formed without any fresh money coming in. The buyers were probably mostly short-covering from those who had reduced their positions earlier; real buyers haven’t shown up yet.

The price is still below both daily moving averages, and those two lines continue to slope downward overhead.

The unresolved issue is on the index front.

MSCI is reviewing Strategy’s index eligibility. If the company is removed, passive funds that track the rules would have to sell about $2.8 billion worth of shares.

That money won’t all hit the market in a single day, but it’s part of the valuation’s foundation: passive funds care about index constituents, not the story.

The company is still buying, too. It added $22 million worth of Bitcoin over seven days, marking its fifth consecutive week of purchases. Against the company’s size, that amount looks more like a statement than enough to support the stock price.

To the downside, I’m watching $133.47, the low from the past twelve days. If the price gets there, I’ll look to see whether there’s real support. If it doesn’t hold, this daily-chart downswing isn’t over.

Unless the price moves back above both moving averages on strong volume, nothing else matters.

My view is that this rebound will probably reach the moving averages at most before getting pushed back down. We’ll likely have to revisit the area around this month’s lows.

$MSTR

$CRCL Expanded into 40 markets, but the stock fell 5 points

Price at $80.88 (24h -5.07%)

Down 5 points, but volume hasn't picked up. The volume of the last three 4-hour candles is about equal to the average of the previous twenty.

Sellers aren't piling in. The problem is on the buying side: nobody's showing up. This is the most painful kind of drop—it never gives you a panic-driven low.

Circle plans to bring USDC to 40 markets, focusing on making cross-border payments cheaper. Its confidence comes from USDC's sizable share of stablecoin transfer volume.

Expanding into new markets costs money and won't bring profits in the short term. Investors are doing a different kind of math right now.

Last week's figures: $36 trillion in annual settlement volume, and $1.4 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026. Nearly 60% went to ecosystem partners like Coinbase and Binance, leaving a net margin of just 7%.

No matter how large the transaction volume gets, only a sliver reaches shareholders. Against this kind of income statement, expansion news isn't enough to support the valuation.

The moving averages look bearish too: the short-term lines are stacked one below another, all sloping downward overhead.

There's not much in the way of buy orders waiting below to catch the fall.

$CRCL

MSCI is reviewing Strategy’s index eligibility, as it added another 267 BTC

$BTC Current price: $81,346 (24h: -1.51%)

Strategy added another 267 BTC today, but the price is still languishing around 81,345.

Institutions are buying, but the market isn’t following suit. That kind of disconnect in sentiment is worth unpacking.

Funding rates are still positive, but longs are barely putting any money down;

open interest hasn’t built up either, with both bulls and bears waiting on the sidelines.

The Strategy news becomes clearer when you break it down: it bought 267 BTC, while MSCI is reviewing its index eligibility.

The former is routine buying; the latter is the uncertainty hanging over the market. Until there’s a decision, investors would rather stay cautious.

Over on ONDO, the two timeframes are at odds, and some are warning to watch out for a liquidity sweep. That naturally makes traders more reluctant to chase.

Above, the people who got caught out around 83120 a couple of days ago are waiting to break even. If the price gets there and nobody steps in to buy, the rally is still on shaky ground;

below, 80637 is the low from the past couple of days. If the price drops there, we’ll see whether anyone is willing to buy in earnest. Volatility has already narrowed considerably, and volume is shrinking too. This kind of market wears you down.

I think the price is more likely to test the 80637 area first. Until it gets above 83120 and holds, don’t read too much into any bounce.

#BTC #币圈日常 #盘面观察

BlackRock adds protection to $BTC : is this bounce a rebound or the start of another leg down?

Currently $81,640, down 0.84% in 24h

BlackRock filed for its third Bitcoin fund today, with downside protection while retaining upside exposure to IBIT.

This structure suggests institutions are insuring their Bitcoin positions—protecting themselves while keeping some upside potential.

That’s what the market is trading today: risk assets are focused on survival, not rushing to go on the offensive.

Hyperliquid was more direct: it says the SEC’s new crypto framework has serious flaws that could devastate Web3 developers, and is calling for five changes immediately.

Regulatory friction hasn’t let up, and development costs and compliance expectations continue to pile up.

South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service chief also came out to apologize, admitting that regulators had badly miscalculated when they aggressively promoted leveraged ETFs focused on a single stock to bring money back home.

That signals a retreat from policies favoring risky products, and retail investors are even less likely to rush back into crypto in the short term.

BTC is hovering near its two-day low today, with volume flat.

There are buy orders and stop-loss orders clustered around 80637, where buyers stepped in near the lows over the past two days. If the price breaks below that level, those buyers will have to admit they were wrong and exit, leaving little support below.

I’m leaning toward a test of this level next. Until BTC gets back above the resistance zone, I’ll treat any bounce as weak.

#BTC

$ETH Currently trading at $2,387, down 1.45% over 24 hours.

$955 million—October isn’t even over yet, and that’s how much has already been pulled from Ethereum ETFs.

Price is hovering just above the two-day low, grinding lower on thin volume.

At its core, support and resistance are simply levels created by clusters of orders.

The 2,446 level above is the high of the rebound over the past two days. The institutional money that pulled out of ETFs won’t be in a hurry to buy back above 2,446, so some holders are likely to sell as soon as the price bounces up to that level.

Near 2,327, BitMine added another 12,535 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 6.04 million ETH, or 4.9% of the total supply. Long-term holders like this are more likely to buy in stages after a break below support than to push the price down from here.

JPMorgan has launched its deposit token, JPM Coin, on Ethereum. Backed by dollar deposits and settling in seconds, it’s a long-term development that adds another use case to the chain—not something that has much to do with today’s half-hour of low-volume drift lower.

Bulls don’t have much conviction right now. Funding rates are only slightly positive, and open interest is unremarkable, so buying support near 2,327 probably won’t be very strong.

I’m leaning bearish for now. I won’t step in until volume picks up.

Let’s see if price can get above 2,446.

#ETH

$BTC Current price: $82,368 (24h +0.47%)

October isn’t even over yet, and U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have already seen net outflows pile up to $955 million—$1 billion has flowed out in three weeks.

With buyers not stepping in and traders still facing liquidation risks, these outflows aren’t likely to stop in a day or two.

The U.S. spot XRP ETF’s record 13 consecutive weeks of net inflows has also come to an end, with its first weekly net outflow.

Today, the market isn’t focused on individual coins. It’s deleveraging risk assets across the board.

The figures in the Wall Street morning briefing are even more telling: CoreWeave plunged 25% last week, the Nasdaq fell 4.48% for the week, and Goldman Sachs says major cloud stocks still have about 15% further downside.

Money is flowing out of both AI-related investments and crypto ETFs, and shifting into U.S. Treasuries.

The Treasury market just posted its best weekly performance since February—that’s part of the same story as the ETF outflows.

The market outlook hinges on BTC at 83,150. If it can get back above 83,150, that would show spot buyers haven’t been shaken out by this sell-off, and the rebound could have more room to run;

if it stays below 83,150, the outflows from Ethereum ETFs are unlikely to stop, and any move up would just be a relief rally.

I’d rather not chase the rebound.

#BTC #加密货币 #币圈日常

The old 2,746-coin $ZEC position is stuck between 1048 and 1190

1048 has been tested twice this month, and both times the price bounced right back.

Levels matter, and today’s ZEC chart is a perfect example.

Orders from the same groups of people often pile up around the same price: buy orders from bargain hunters, stop-losses from those afraid of losing money, and orders from people who got caught earlier and are waiting to break even.

When the price reaches that level, all those orders kick in at once, and the line holds on its own.

On the other hand, 1190 is the high from the past two days. Above that, a medium-term moving average is sitting in the way. People who bought in around there recently may be seeing the price bounce back near their entry point, and their first instinct is to get out.

So when picking levels, don’t worry about whether the line looks perfectly straight. Look for signs that people are actually trading there.

When the price gets near 1048, watch whether the buying support is firmer than the previous times.

If it really breaks below, that means those orders have been fully absorbed, leaving a vacuum below.

If it edges up toward 1190, see whether it can hold there and push higher. If it can’t, it’ll have to turn back down.

The price has barely moved this week, and volume hasn’t picked up either. On the 4-hour chart, the two moving averages are pinching it from above and below. Funding rates are still positive, so some people are willing to pay a small fee to hold their positions, but it’s not an overcrowded trade.

Without anyone rushing in, the price will keep grinding within the range.

For now, I’ll watch for it to edge up and test 1190. If it fails, it’ll fall back to 1048 and grind around there again.

If it breaks above 1190 on strong volume, then this range-bound outlook is invalidated.

#zec

$Q This bearish candle isn’t enough to shake people out—don’t rush to call the top

Price at $0.111 (24h -20.22%)

Everyone’s calling the top today. I’m taking the other side.

There wasn’t much real selling volume in this bearish candle.

On the 4-hour chart, the last three candles have only 40% of the volume of the previous twenty. Price is pulling back, but volume is drying up as it does.

If people were dumping, it wouldn’t be this quiet.

Funding rates are still slightly negative. Shorts are paying longs, which suggests the traders who pushed the price up over the past ten days haven’t piled on enough leverage to trigger a cascade of liquidations. The drop hasn’t set off a chain reaction of forced closures.

There are plenty of shorts crowded in here. If the price turns back up, they may be the first to get squeezed.

That article about Quack AI said it had risen more than 80% in ten days, and even its author thinks this rally is nearing its end.

That take came after the run-up. The market is trading the “we’ve topped” story right now, but no new negative news has actually hit.

The same goes for Google’s quantum computing update a few days ago: it brought the error rate down to one-fortieth and achieved 99.9% accuracy, but explicitly said no machine is close to cracking Bitcoin signatures. That’s a distant concern affecting sentiment, not something related to today’s drop. Don’t force a causal link.

0.09 below is a round-number level. Watch for buyers if price retests it;

if it breaks below and can’t reclaim it, the bullish thesis is invalidated.

Above, at 0.13, price needs to completely fill in today’s bearish candle for it to count. If it can’t get back above that level, it’s still just a bounce.

Most likely, price will chop sideways for a couple of days, wearing down the latecomers who bought in today, then try another move up. The real challenge is reclaiming 0.13 and holding above it.

#q #行情观察 #币圈日常

$INJ Up 27.68% in a single day, now at $9.13

INJ surged nearly 30% in one day, but is still below its year-to-date high of 9.48. The closest point is actually the hardest place to make a move.

For those already holding, the biggest dilemma is this: the 4-hour moving averages are still aligned upward, funding rates are slightly positive, and open interest is fairly average. This suggests bulls haven’t placed big bets, and the momentum isn’t overheated.

In this situation, holders worry that INJ will fail to break through 9.48 after a couple of attempts and then get knocked back down.

Those on the sidelines worry about chasing near the monthly high. A report today said long-term investors want to wait until 13.575 before considering a trend trade. In other words, in the eyes of long-term money, this bullish candle doesn’t yet signal a reversal; the rise is driven by sentiment and a catch-up rally from lower levels.

So those on the sidelines can only watch two levels: if there’s support on a pullback near 7.31, that shows the buying pressure below is real; only a high-volume break above 9.48 would open the way for another leg up. At this point, I lean bullish, but only conditionally. The most likely path is for price to consolidate between 9.0 and 9.48 first, absorbing the short-term positions opened by today’s buyers, and then make another attempt at 9.48;

#INJ #加密货币

$ETH A low-volume rebound with no follow-through; negative funding rates show the bulls haven’t returned

Price at $2,455 (24h +3.53%)

Volume has shrunk to 40%, yet the price has still bounced more than 3%. This kind of rebound has no one backing it up.

Funding rates just turned negative today. Shorts are paying a small amount, but the rate is barely negative—nowhere near enough to force a short squeeze.

In other words, the bulls haven’t made any big bets. The price is still rising mainly because shorts are covering, with no one following through.

There are two things in yesterday’s news that need to be viewed together. First, a large number of long positions were liquidated, just as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data came out, and ETH briefly fell below its previous support.

Second, the entire crypto market shed $100 billion that same day. BTC, ETH, and XRP all plunged, while PUMP, CC, ENA, LIT, and ZEC took the hardest hits.

A bounce after a sell-off like that looks more like a rebound after selling pressure has been exhausted than a move driven by buyers actively stepping in.

Looking at key levels, if the price holds around 2314, that would suggest there are still buyers below, and we can view this as range-bound trading. If it breaks above 2520 on rising volume, then this move would have real substance. Otherwise, any rebound is likely to be pushed back down by the moving averages overhead.

I think this move is more likely to be a relief bounce. I’ll reconsider that view if the price reclaims 2520 with strong volume.

For now, I expect it to retest 2314 first. I’m not in a hurry to look for 2520.

#ETH #加密货币 #盘面观察

$ZEC rebounded 8% on declining volume, currently at $1,232, 24h +8.36%

I dug through the news, and there isn't much fresh money coming in. It looks more like some buyers are covering after the oversold drop.

The news stories are still going back and forth about the double-digit decline a couple of days ago. Some analysts blame a buildup of leverage, along with fears that AI could crack crypto;

another report is more concrete: long liquidations are increasing, funding rates are flattening, and spot inflows are also slowing. Those are signs the downtrend may not be over yet.

Today's 8% move looks more like a bounce after being pushed too far down.

Don't rush to call for higher prices on a low-volume rebound like this. The support level below is 1065, the low from the past couple of days.

Watch how it holds on a retest. If it breaks, we'll have to look lower for a bottom;

The trigger level above is 1269. Only a move above it that holds would justify talking about a reversal. Otherwise, this rebound is just giving those who got trapped at higher prices a chance to break even.

The 4-hour moving averages are still bearishly aligned, and the daily moving average is still overhead. With volume this low, the rally lacks conviction;

funding rates are only slightly positive, and bulls aren't willing to place big bets.

Most people see +8% and call it a reversal. I think this looks more like a breather in the middle of a downtrend.

Next, I expect it to make a run at 1269. If it can't get there, it'll likely drift back toward 1065. If it really breaks below 1065, we can forget that 8% gain ever happened.

This market is up for a day, then takes three days off. That's about as far as I'm willing to go with it.

#ZEC #盘面观察

$SOXL Current price: $97.09 (24h: -18.58%)

From its year-to-date high, SOXL has already fallen nearly 68%, yet the funding rate is still positive.

The position is deep in the red, and you still have to pay out every eight hours just to hold it. That’s the worst part today.

Those holding inverse products are feeling good; the ones who thought it was cheap and added to their positions a few days ago are feeling the most miserable.

Let’s explain the broader backdrop.

CPI came in hotter than expected, bringing rate-hike fears back. The market has raised the odds of a rate hike in October to 43.7%. When data like this hits, money pulls out of high-volatility semiconductor stocks first;

U.S. chip stocks have fallen for six straight sessions;

The entire market saw $476 million in liquidations over the past hour, with longs accounting for most of those forced out.

These are the market conditions, not the direct reason SOXL is down today. But it comes with three-times leverage and tracks the semiconductor sector, so when the sector moves one step, SOXL moves three.

On the chart, the price is less than 1% above its 30-day low. 96.43 was both the low for the past two days and the low for this month.

The four-hour chart is genuinely deeply oversold, but oversold doesn’t guarantee a reversal. All the short-term moving averages are above the price, so any bounce could easily get pushed back down.

I’m more convinced the direction is down. Most people are watching the oversold conditions and trying to grab a rebound. I’m not joining them.

The funding rate is still positive, which shows longs are still crowded and haven’t fully cleared out. When a rebound comes, more will leave than enter.

If the funding rate turns negative and the price can decisively reclaim 96.43 and hold above it, then today was a wick, not a change in direction—and the basis for the bearish view will be gone.

For now, I think it will keep grinding lower. It’s only a matter of time before this level breaks.

#SOXL

BTC is hugging the $80K line, and today’s moves are mostly down to CPI

Current price: $81,187 (24h: -3.08%)

Bitcoin ETFs have seen $151 million in net outflows since Monday. The week before that, the figure was $681 million.

There’s another half of the story worth chewing on: XRP funds saw inflows that bucked the trend.

The money that left hasn’t exited crypto; it’s just moved from Bitcoin into other assets.

Last night’s US CPI came in hotter than expected. BTC fell 3.3% over 24 hours, reviving concerns that rate cuts could be pushed back. Crypto slid along with tech stocks.

Right now, the market is trading the price of money, not the story of crypto.

A quick word on what it means for moving averages to act as resistance.

Put simply, a moving average is the average cost over a period of time. When the price sits below it, most people who entered during that period are underwater. When the price rebounds to around that level, some will want to break even and get out, so sell orders naturally appear.

Both moving averages on the 4-hour chart are hanging above the price, and the daily one is even higher. That’s why today’s drop has left the rebound with no real strength.

Money is flowing out, all the cost levels are overhead, and open interest hasn’t increased either. There’s no new money coming in.

If $80K really breaks, that’s when there’ll be room to fall further;

if BTC holds firmly above $80K and bounces back after two retests, my bearish view is invalidated.

My take is that price will grind around $80K until trading volume picks up. Right now, volume on the 4-hour chart is still flat.

#BTC #行情观察 #比特币