$IOST Down a third in one day, yet still up 10% net over seven days

Trading at $0.000912, down 33.92% in 24 hours

It’s too early to talk about a bottom.

This drop wiped out the leverage built up over the past seven days. The price is still nearly 30% above its monthly low, so there’s room to fall if it heads lower.

IOST is a public blockchain launched in 2018, focused on high TPS. Its market cap is just over $30 million, and it ranks outside the top 600.

Sequoia invested early on, so its foundations aren’t bad. But the market is tiny, and it doesn’t take much money to push the price up or dump it.

Trading volume over the past three days was more than 100 times that of the previous 20 days, as the price retreated all the way from its monthly high.

This much volume alongside a bearish candle points to distribution.

The funding rate is negative, so crowded shorts are paying to stay in their positions. The more crowded the shorts get, the more likely a bounce comes first—so don’t expect a straight drop.

If the rebound reaches the round-number level of 0.001 but can’t break above it or hold there, don’t expect much upside;

If it does hold above that level, my bearish view is invalidated.

Next, it’ll probably bounce first, get rejected at that level, then head lower to test the lows around the start of the month. Expect some back-and-forth along the way.

#IOST