老K的比特币行情洞察

🚨I am Lao K, a user of naked K technology for 7 years, and I have witnessed how institutions cut leeks for 3 years. Now I will use the on-chain microscope to help you see through the dealer's cards:
⚠Do you remember the Filecoin battle royale of the century? I warned miners of a death spiral 153 days in advance, but the project team dumped the market and 98% of the mining industry was wiped out - the people who scolded me at that time now have two-meter-high grass on their graves!
💎Last November, when everyone was laughing at AI Coin as a bubble, my on-chain scanner captured unusual movements in the a16z wallet, leading subscribers to take advantage of 30 times the market value of AI16Z and other targets - many Twitter KOLs directly copied my analysis framework!

Against the backdrop of frequent recent fluctuations in the macroeconomy and capital markets, the contest between bullish and bearish forces in the market has been intense. On the morning of August 4, U.S. stocks surged: the Nasdaq Composite jumped sharply, and Google rallied more than 4%, hitting a record high, becoming the world’s second-largest company by market capitalization. In the face of the strong performance of U.S. equities alongside sideways consolidation in the cryptocurrency market, how should investors seize the current market rhythm and trading opportunities? The following provides an in-depth analysis of major core underlying assets.
Macroeconomic conditions and the U.S. Dollar Index: the underlying logic behind the U.S. stock rebound
From the perspective of macro interest-rate expectations, market-implied probabilities for the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points in September have edged down slightly—from 80% previously to about 67%. Against this backdrop, even though the U.S. Dollar Index has seen a modest rebound after breaking below a key support level, it is still broadly in a weak, breakdown-downward posture. This provides an extremely favorable macro environment for risk assets to strengthen.

Middle East situation cools down and the evolution of macro-asset linkage
In the near term, signs have emerged that the Middle East situation is easing. The two sides of the Iran-U.S. will hold talks on Monday. Geopolitical risk has rapidly cooled, causing international crude oil prices to plunge sharply. In the macro transmission chain, the drop in crude weakens inflation expectations; meanwhile, the funds that had previously flowed into dollar-denominated assets for safe-haven purposes have started to return. Both U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index fall at the same time. The sharp rise in dollar assets previously was mainly based on safe-haven demand triggered by the geopolitical crisis. However, the current stage of easing in the geopolitical situation breaks this one-way logic. The dollar index’s stage-by-stage weakening and the retreat of its safe-haven attributes tilt the contest for flows between gold and the U.S. dollar. After multiple tests of key support levels without breaking them, gold has shown remarkable resilience. For medium- to long-term investors, placing some spot gold around the key support area near $4,000 offers a relatively high risk-reward ratio.

I. Misinterpretation of the market and the main logic: the overall “high short” tone of Bitcoin under the so-called market-support signal
Recently, the crypto market has seen a bout of choppy rebound, prompting some investors to wonder: “Is someone propping up the market? Has the bull market returned?” However, based on Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term technical formations and the macro environment, Old K believes the current行情 is by no means a signal of a bull market coming back. Bitcoin’s previous uptrend line has already been clearly broken, and the structural upside expansion room above is quite limited. Although, from a theoretical chart perspective, the price action is not ruled out from pushing upward toward the large technical gap between $68,000 and $70,000—after completing a bout of long-side liquidity hunting—only to then unfold a “final flush” kind of selloff to sweep the market, this path is merely an extreme rebound assumption. Overall, the market currently lacks the momentum to sustain a bull run. Therefore, finding opportunities to short at high levels (high short) remains the absolute operational main storyline for the near term.

I. Crude oil and Bitcoin show unusual linkage: the evolution of the underlying macro transmission logic
Recently, the cryptocurrency and commodities markets have exhibited a noteworthy phenomenon: crude oil and Bitcoin, which had previously often moved in a negative correlation, suddenly both declined in sync; afterward, on a daily chart basis, both also showed signs of a “bottom-breaking reversal” rebound. This shift from negative correlation to synchronized rises and falls has sparked widespread market discussion about their relationship and the subsequent trend.
From a historical transmission-chain perspective, the negative correlation between crude oil and Bitcoin mainly stems from geopolitical risk. When the situation in the Middle East escalates or there are threats of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil—considered a strategic commodity—surges sharply, which in turn intensifies global inflation concerns. A rise in inflation expectations prompts central banks such as the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy (including rate hikes or delaying rate cuts). This causes high-risk assets such as Bitcoin to be sold off, manifesting as “crude oil up, Bitcoin down.”

1. Trend Reversal: Sudden Changes in the Macrosituation and the Establishment of a Bearish Outlook for the Main Board
Against the backdrop of easing signals in the Middle East conflict, global financial markets did not see the expected broad-based rally. Instead, an abnormal pattern emerged: U.S. stocks suffered a sharp plunge, while the cryptocurrency market simultaneously shifted to a bearish stance. Looking at Bitcoin (BTC)’s chart, the previously sustained red ascending trendline has been fully broken. At present, the overall candlestick structure is trading below the Vegas Channel and multiple key moving averages. A clear descending trendline has formed overhead, exerting pressure. The breakdown of this technical pattern marks the disintegration of the long (bullish) structure and the official establishment of a bearish trend. Accordingly, the overall trading strategy must fully shift from the prior long-biased mindset to a main logic led by “selling on rallies.”

Pause announcement and disciplined self-governance: AI-assisted litigation and restraint without clear signals
I temporarily paused updates for a few days recently. First of all, I’d like to apologize to all my friends. This week, I’ll be putting most of my effort into several complex litigation cases. What’s worth mentioning is that I didn’t hire a professional lawyer for this; instead, I used AI tools throughout to organize the litigation materials and build the legal reasoning. Even though I spent a great deal of time on this in my day job, the attempt also helped me save a fairly substantial amount of cost—its value is comparable to earning several thousand dollars more in contract trading. During this period, I also kept a close eye on the price movements of cryptocurrencies and US stocks. However, since the market has not presented any solid opportunities that fully meet my personal trading rules, I chose to stay restrained and did not rush to share my views. In trading, keeping silent when there are no clear signals is, in itself, a form of risk control.

I. Sudden shift in the macro backdrop: expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have been completely shattered
Recently, the global macroeconomic landscape has undergone a dramatic shift. The Fed’s hawkish stance has virtually dashed hopes for rate cuts in 2026. Although earlier CPI data provided some short-term encouragement and many bloggers and analysts are eagerly declaring that a “bull market is back” and that a “bear market is over,” the actual market pricing and capital flows have quickly poured cold water on these optimistic sentiments. In the face of major positive news, asset prices have still been unable to break through key resistance levels effectively—this in itself is an extremely dangerous warning sign.

A Rational Examination Amid Market Confusion
At present, the Bitcoin market is moving sideways, and many investors feel uncertain about the direction. Looking back to last night, not only was there fierce action in the European Cup between France and Spain, but the financial markets also experienced a “reverse” kind of volatility. Just as when we expected the French team to perform well but they lost control of the game, when the market broadly turned bearish on the CPI data, Bitcoin instead staged a reversal overnight. However, once this reversal appeared, the market also showed signs of another potential plunge. This interweaving of bullish and bearish forces, with repeated back-and-forth battles, is exactly the core characteristic of the current行情.