JohnZzz

Wishing everyone prosperity
$ETH

In the medium to long term, the core influences on ETH investment come from three main lines: the release of liquidity from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, the compliance and entry of institutional funds, and the demand for on-chain ecology and RWA tokenization; at the same time, we must be wary of three major risks: inflation rebound/policy shift, regulatory uncertainty, and liquidity traps.

1. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Liquidity and Yield Anchoring

Key Conclusion: The interest rate cut cycle is favorable for ETH. If the federal funds rate drops below 3.5% in 2025-2026, the annualized yield of ETH staking at 3.0%-3.5% will be more attractive, with funds shifting from low-yield fixed income to high-β risk assets.

Risk Points: Repeated inflation or an overheated economy may delay interest rate cuts/restart rate hikes, and a rebound in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will suppress risk appetite, triggering outflows from ETH.

Tracking Indicators: FOMC decisions, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, CPI/PCE inflation data. When interest rate cut expectations are ≥80%, positions can be gradually increased; below 50%, positions should be reduced.

2. Compliance Process: The “Valve” for Institutional Funds

Positive Signals: The return of funds to U.S. spot/staked ETH ETFs (e.g., BlackRock's Staked ETH ETF saw $620 million inflow in the first 10 days), with a clearer regulatory stance lowering the entry threshold for institutions.

Concerns: The EU's MiCA and the SEC's detailed rules may increase compliance costs, putting pressure on some DeFi protocols to adjust their business.

Tracking Indicators: ETF fund flows, changes in whale holdings, exchange ETH inventory (currently low, with little risk of sell-off).

3. On-Chain Ecology and RWA: The “Engine” of Long-Term Value

Core Increment: RWA tokenization (stocks, bonds, commodities on-chain) with ETH as the primary underlying asset. The layout by institutions like BlackRock will drive up ETH demand and burning volume.

Technical Dividends: After the Fusaka upgrade, blob fee burning increases, and the active L2 ecosystem promotes ETH deflation, supporting long-term value.

Tracking Indicators: ETH staking volume (over 32.4 million), on-chain transaction volume, RWA protocol locked value (TVL).

4. Global Liquidity and Geopolitics: Amplifier of Risk Appetite

Positive Catalyst: The ECB's easing, the Bank of Japan's policy shift, and coordinated liquidity easing between China and the U.S. enhance global risk appetite, benefiting ETH and other risk assets.

Negative Shock: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts and worsening trade frictions may lead to risk aversion, with funds shifting to gold/U.S. Treasuries, making ETH more likely to be sold off.
Wishing everyone good luck
$ETH

#短线交易 ETH's short to medium-term strategy focuses on range-bound trading, with a core focus on the $2880-3000 range and a breakthrough at the $3000 level. Strictly control positions and stop losses while dynamically adjusting based on on-chain/macroeconomic signals, suitable for a holding period of 1-4 weeks.

1. Core Strategy Overview (as of December 21)

• Short-term (1-7 days): Light position range trading, high sell and low buy, single position ≤20%, stop loss $30-50, take profit $50-80, quick in and out.

• Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Gradual positioning + increased positions on breakthroughs, total position ≤40%, with 2800-2870 as the core support zone and 3000-3050 as the breakthrough confirmation zone.

• Core Anchors: $2880 (strong short-term support), $3000 (key resistance/breakthrough point), switch direction if it falls below 2800 or stabilizes above 3000.

2. Short-term Operation Plan (1-7 days)

1. Long Position: Enter lightly at 2870-2900, stop loss below 2800, target 2950-2980, reduce position/exit near 3000.

2. Short Position: Enter lightly at 3030-3060, stop loss above 3000, target 2950-2920, if it breaks below 2900, consider a moderate downward look at 2870.

3. Breakthrough Response:

◦ If it stabilizes above 3000 with increased volume: Add to long positions at 2980-3000, target 3050-3080, move stop loss up to 2950.

◦ If it breaks below 2870: Lightly short on a rebound at 2880-2900, target 2830-2800, stop loss above 2920.

4. Risk Control: The liquidity is thin during the Christmas holidays, making it easy to have "spikes"; do not over-leverage, do not chase highs or lows, close positions or reduce size within the day to avoid overnight risks.

3. Medium-term Layout Plan (1-4 weeks)

1. Gradual Positioning:

◦ First batch: 2830-2870, position 15%, stop loss below 2800, hold until **2950+** to reduce half.

◦ Second batch: After breaking 3000 with volume, add 15% at 2980-3000 on a pullback, target 3080-3100, stop loss 2950.

2. Key Signal Tracking:

◦ On-chain: Increase in holdings by whales, decrease in ETH supply on exchanges → bullish; large concentrated sell-offs → wait and see/reduce position.

◦ Technical: Daily RSI > 50, MACD golden cross → bullish; break below 2800 with volume → reduce position to ≤10%.

◦ Macroeconomic: Federal Reserve policies, CPI data, ETF fund flows, if bearish then reduce position to within **20%**.

3. Take Profit: Medium-term target 3050-3100, take profit in batches, reserve 30% position for a breakthrough at 3200 (needs volume confirmation).
Wishing everyone prosperity
$ETH

Christmas and New Year are approaching, and some "tricks" can be noted.
1. Must focus on core operational signals (deciding bullish or bearish direction)

1. Institutional trends (key barometer): Whether BlackRock ETHA resumes continuous net inflows. On December 15, they sold off $139 million in a single day, leading to total outflows of $225 million from ETH ETFs. A depletion of institutional buying pressure is the biggest short-term constraint. If funds flow back, the bullish probability increases; continued outflows still present a risk of decline.

2. Key price level breakthrough: The short-term core range is $2950-$3150. If it stabilizes above $3100 with volume, there is a high probability of pushing towards $3200-$3500 (AI predicts a 45% chance of reaching $3200-$3600 before Christmas); if it breaks below the $3000 support, it may drop to $2780-$2500.

3. Technical upgrade catalyst: The December Fusaka upgrade focuses on Layer 2 optimization, which can improve efficiency by 8 times and reduce costs by 95%. Historical upgrades are often accompanied by price fluctuations, so attention should be paid to whether the market is speculating in advance or if there is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.

2. Historical patterns & current contradictions

• Christmas market characteristics: Only appear in bull markets/recovery periods, with a 21% increase in December 2020 and an 11% increase in 2023; bear markets/weak periods must fall, with a 15% drop in 2019, a 20% drop in 2021, and an 8% drop in 2024.

• Current core contradiction: Institutions selling off weak assets at year-end to "paint earnings" (ETH underperforming BTC and Solana) + low liquidity during the holidays for risk aversion, vs. expectations of technical upgrades + some whales increasing holdings at low prices, leading to intense long-short competition.

3. Practical suggestions (risk control priority)

• Conservative: Mainly wait and see, wait for stabilization above $3100 or ETH/BTC exchange rate recovery (signal of funds flowing back) before making small layouts, with stop loss set below $3000.

• Aggressive: Can test with light positions, increase holdings upon breaking $3100, targeting $3200-$3500; immediately stop loss if it drops below $2950 to avoid deep losses.

• Pitfall reminder: Stay away from faith-based bottom fishing; low liquidity during the holidays can amplify volatility, do not hold significant positions over the holiday.

Wishing everyone prosperity
$ETH

2025 is about to pass, do friends holding ETH have confidence in seeing a good end to 2025?
In the last ten days of 2025, there is a possibility of a significant increase in ETH, but it needs to break through key resistance levels and be accompanied by market momentum. The following are the core judgments and basis:
1. Core conditions for a short-term surge
Break through the upper Bollinger Band resistance (currently $2939): As of December 17, ETH has been fluctuating in the range of $2912-$2939 for more than 12 hours, with the Bollinger Band narrowing to a space of $54 (upper band $2939.49, lower band $2912.15), and volatility dropping to freezing point. If it breaks through $2939 with volume, it may trigger a technical rebound, targeting $2966 (middle band) and the psychological level of $3000.
Capital inflow and market sentiment warming:
Spot ETF funds have resumed growth of 28% since November 21 (total scale reached $21.5 billion), and institutional demand is gradually recovering.
The on-chain net taker volume improved from -$500 million in October to -$138 million, indicating weakened selling pressure and a slow recovery of buying power.
Institutional accumulation trend: In 2025, several listed companies (such as Bit Digital, Gamesquare) initiated ETH treasury plans, accumulating more than 1.1 million ETH (average price $3584), solidifying bottom support with long-term locked chips.
Technological upgrade expectations: In 2026, the Fusaka upgrade (including Verkle Trees, etc.) will be promoted to continuously optimize network performance and inject confidence into ecological development.

Conclusion: Whether ETH can surge significantly in the last ten days of the year depends on whether it can effectively break through $2939 and stand firm, while also requiring ETF capital inflow and alignment with the U.S. stock market trends. The current market is at a critical point of change, and it is recommended to closely track the direction of the Bollinger Band breakout and changes in trading volume to respond flexibly to fluctuations.
Wishing everyone prosperity
$ETH

Wishing everyone prosperity

#每日eth Current Trend Core Characteristics

Extreme Narrow Range Fluctuation

Prices continue to fluctuate in the range of $2912-$2939 (Bollinger Band lower and upper limits), with a channel width of only $54, the lowest level of recent volatility, indicating that a severe one-sided market is approaching.

Long and Short Forces Stalemate

The MACD indicator shows a potential bottom divergence formation (green momentum bar contraction), but the futures premium is only 3%, reflecting that overall market sentiment remains cautious.

On-chain Data Weakness

Ethereum's on-chain monthly fees have decreased by 45%, and long-term holders have sold 847,000 ETH in the past 30 days, creating the largest reduction since 2021, increasing the risk of selling pressure.

Key Operational Reference

Long and Short Watershed

Breaking above $2939 (Bollinger Band upper limit): Expected to open up rebound space, target $2966 (mid-line).

Breaking below $2912 (Bollinger Band lower limit): May trigger panic selling, with short-term support looking at the $2880-$2900 area; if lost, it will test the strong support at $2800.

Strategy Recommendations

Short-term Traders: Light positions at $2912-$2915 to try going long (stop-loss below $2905), or $2938-$2942 to try going short (stop-loss above $2950), strict stop-loss is required.

Long-term Holders: Avoid panic selling before a significant drop below $2880, observe the $2900-$2920 range, waiting for right-side signals to increase positions.

Risk Warning

Technical Change Signal
Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the extreme, historical experience indicates that subsequent fluctuations may exceed 10%, and position risk must be guarded against.

Insufficient On-chain Demand
Network fees and active addresses have declined, and if sustained weakness continues, it may hinder price breakthrough momentum.

Macroeconomic Support Level
$2800 is the convergence zone of multiple cycle moving averages; if broken, it may accelerate the decline to the $2620-$2716 range.

$ETH