#短线交易 ETH's short to medium-term strategy focuses on range-bound trading, with a core focus on the $2880-3000 range and a breakthrough at the $3000 level. Strictly control positions and stop losses while dynamically adjusting based on on-chain/macroeconomic signals, suitable for a holding period of 1-4 weeks.
1. Core Strategy Overview (as of December 21)
• Short-term (1-7 days): Light position range trading, high sell and low buy, single position ≤20%, stop loss $30-50, take profit $50-80, quick in and out.
• Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Gradual positioning + increased positions on breakthroughs, total position ≤40%, with 2800-2870 as the core support zone and 3000-3050 as the breakthrough confirmation zone.
• Core Anchors: $2880 (strong short-term support), $3000 (key resistance/breakthrough point), switch direction if it falls below 2800 or stabilizes above 3000.
2. Short-term Operation Plan (1-7 days)
1. Long Position: Enter lightly at 2870-2900, stop loss below 2800, target 2950-2980, reduce position/exit near 3000.
2. Short Position: Enter lightly at 3030-3060, stop loss above 3000, target 2950-2920, if it breaks below 2900, consider a moderate downward look at 2870.
3. Breakthrough Response:
◦ If it stabilizes above 3000 with increased volume: Add to long positions at 2980-3000, target 3050-3080, move stop loss up to 2950.
◦ If it breaks below 2870: Lightly short on a rebound at 2880-2900, target 2830-2800, stop loss above 2920.
4. Risk Control: The liquidity is thin during the Christmas holidays, making it easy to have "spikes"; do not over-leverage, do not chase highs or lows, close positions or reduce size within the day to avoid overnight risks.
3. Medium-term Layout Plan (1-4 weeks)
1. Gradual Positioning:
◦ First batch: 2830-2870, position 15%, stop loss below 2800, hold until **2950+** to reduce half.
◦ Second batch: After breaking 3000 with volume, add 15% at 2980-3000 on a pullback, target 3080-3100, stop loss 2950.
2. Key Signal Tracking:
◦ On-chain: Increase in holdings by whales, decrease in ETH supply on exchanges → bullish; large concentrated sell-offs → wait and see/reduce position.
◦ Technical: Daily RSI > 50, MACD golden cross → bullish; break below 2800 with volume → reduce position to ≤10%.
◦ Macroeconomic: Federal Reserve policies, CPI data, ETF fund flows, if bearish then reduce position to within **20%**.
3. Take Profit: Medium-term target 3050-3100, take profit in batches, reserve 30% position for a breakthrough at 3200 (needs volume confirmation).
Wishing everyone prosperity
