• S&P 500 above 6,800 • Gold hovering around $4,900-5,000 • Dollar Index crashing to ~97 • Crypto fear & greed index at 8.
Every hard asset ripped while fiat collapsed. gold nearly doubled since trump's inauguration. silver went 4x before correcting.
And bitcoin? sitting at ~$67k. down 47% from its $126k october high.
This feels like 2019 all over again. gold ran first, then btc did a 10x. gold broke out in 2019, btc didn't move until late 2020.
The setup might be even better this time:
• Strategic Bitcoin reserve already exists (created march 2025). treasury hasn't even started buying aggressively yet
• Blackrock calculated a 1% allocation from asian institutional investors alone = $2 trillion into crypto
• Stablecoin market cap ratio sitting at 8%, meaning massive dry powder on the sidelines
• Fear & Greed Index hit 5 on feb 6. that's lower than the FTX collapse. lower than luna. lower than covid
Every single time the index has gone to extreme fear like this, a massive rally followed within 6-18 months.
The world is literally screaming "we don't trust the system anymore." the dollar is getting sold, gold is getting hoarded, and equities are being propped up by liquidity injections.
You think the hardest, most portable, most divisible, most verifiable store of value won't catch that bid eventually?
JPMorgan says $266k. Motley Fool says $150k this year. Even Standard Chartered, who just slashed their target, still sees $100k by December.
Bitcoin isn't failing the digital gold narrative. It's just the last one to move. like it always is.
$8.7 billion in realized losses last week alone. That's textbook capitulation. weak hands out, conviction buyers in.
Zoom out. Every time uncertainty peaks, BTC follows with a monster move 12-18 months later.
My overall outlook for gold (from March to April) is bullish. The recent lack of upward momentum is mainly due to the Lunar New Year holidays in China, Vietnam, and a few other countries.
I expect gold to slowly begin to rise with increasing volume next week (starting February 23rd). You can clearly see that the narrow trading range for gold is constantly narrowing.
The time for an upward move is getting closer. #GOLD
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed that several officials were open to raising interest rates if inflation continues above target. 📊
The tone was moderately hawkish, with some members favoring a “two-way” approach — balancing language between the possibilities of a rate cut and a hike.
The result?
The probability of a March rate cut has fallen to its lowest level in over a month. ⏳
Markets are reassessing expectations… and monetary policy flexibility remains on the table. 👀💵
Liquid is leaving the market at the fastest pace since the last peer-to-peer market 📉
Bitcoin and Ethereum positions are shrinking, and stablecoin growth has virtually ground to a halt — meaning a lack of significant new capital inflows 💰
A cautious environment and tight liquidity…
The next moves could be sharp with any sudden shift in sentiment 👀⚡
This is a clean set of charts! the 4-hour (4h) timeframe across some major players: Solana ($SOL ), Ethereum ($ETH ), Avalanche ($AVAX ), and Sui (SUI).
What stands out immediately is the high degree of correlation between these assets right now. They are all testing critical inflection points simultaneously.
SOL/USDT : $82.10 Testing the lower boundary of a long-term ascending trendline.
ETH/USDT : $1,959.52 Sitting right at the "golden" support zone (orange block) near $1,940.
AVAX/USDT : $8.98 Breaking slightly below the diagonal trendline; looking for support in the $8.80 zone.
SUI/USDT : $0.9483 Consolidating just above the $0.90 support block after a rejected retest of $1.00.
Key Technical Themes Diagonal Support Tests: Almost every chart shows price interacting with a rising support line. If these candles close decisively below these yellow lines, we could see a shift from a "buy the dip" environment to a short-term bearish trend.
The "Orange Zones": Your highlighted demand zones are the "line in the sand." As long as price stays above these shaded areas (especially on ETH and SOL), the macro bullish structure remains intact.
Volume Profile (VPVR): The horizontal bars on the left of each chart show significant "Value Areas." Most of these assets are trading right at their high-volume nodes—meaning this is where the market "agrees" on the price. A move away from here usually happens with high volatility.
What to Watch For The next 4 to 8 hours are pivotal. If the current 4h candles close with long "wick" rejections (buying pressure) at these trendlines, it sets up a potential bounce. If they close as full-bodied red candles through the support, the next stop is likely the bottom of your orange demand zones.
📉 Altcoin Sell Pressure Just Hit a 5-Year Extreme.
Retail is out. Smart money rotated. No institutional alt accumulation in sight. This is not a dip. It's 13 months of continuous net selling on CEX spot.
📊Breaking: Fed Minutes signal hold for now, but path still conditional.
The Minutes from the January 27–28 meeting showed that almost all participants favoured holding rates steady, with only a couple preferring a cut. The pause, however, did not close the door on easing.
Several policymakers reportedly commented that further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation declined in line with their expectations.
At the same time, the Committee made clear it is not operating with a one-way bias.
Several participants said they would have supported describing future decisions in more two-sided terms, reflecting the possibility that hikes could be appropriate if inflation remained above target. In other words, the reaction function remains flexible.
Today, crypto doesn't need new projects, especially L1 networks.
Literally, every new L1 project has failed in the last year.
This is because the market has reached saturation; what's already there is enough and needs only development.
A network and coin like SOL has literally reached a major milestone, captured a huge market share, and crushed all the competitors who tried to emerge.
Choose your coins wisely. Today, the market has matured and changed; what's already there is enough, and new ones have no value.
The price of PEPE is gradually declining towards the FVG 4h zone in the range of $0.0003980 - $0.0004170. If the price reaches this zone and shows a reaction, it will be an excellent entry point for a long position. The main target for price growth is liquidity at current highs above the $0.005100 level.
How XRP Price Will React as Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ ETF Gains Momentum.
XRP price struggles around $1.47, with bullish sentiment eyeing a breakout above $1.50. Despite pressure, XRP holds above $1.40, recovering recent losses. Franklin Templeton's XRPZ ETF gains traction, with its inaugural quarterly report pending. This development could influence XRP's price trajectory and market sentiment. Investors are closely monitoring how the ETF's performance impacts XRP's value and broader market trends. The ETF's momentum may provide insights into XRP's future price movements and overall market sentiment, making it a significant development for the crypto space.
Markets don't react to news… they react to the risk profile.
With escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, markets didn't wait for official data or statements. They moved immediately according to their fundamental logic: risk repricing.
In just one session:
• Gold rose 1.6% • Silver rose 4.3% • Oil climbed 2.66% • Bitcoin fell 1%
These movements don't reflect short-term speculation, but rather a rapid shift of capital from risk-sensitive assets to those historically used as safe havens.
Gold and silver aren't rising because the economy is strong, but because uncertainty is widening.
Oil isn't rising solely due to demand, but because the market is beginning to price in supply risks. And cryptocurrencies, despite the “hedging” rhetoric, are still treated as high-risk assets at the first real geopolitical test.
More important than the numbers is the message: Markets sense that the level of geopolitical risk has entered a new phase, even if it hasn't yet made headlines.
📊Tesla Inc: The electric vehicle maker will avoid a 30-day suspension of its dealer and manufacturer licenses in California after the company stopped using the term "autopilot" in marketing of its vehicles in the state, a regulator said on Tuesday.
Traders, no distraction today. The calendar presents us with a deadly sequence of events that will shake up the EUR, GBP, and USD.
🕓 The Volatility Timeline:
1:00 PM: 🇬🇧 BOE Rate Decision: The Bank of England decides on rates (expected 3.75%). 1:30 PM: 🇬🇧 BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks: Pay attention to the Governor's words. 2:15 PM: 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate: It's Europe's turn. Rates expected at 2.15%. 2:45 PM: 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference: Lagarde will speak live. The euro will really move here.
🇺🇸 The US Wildcard at 2:30 PM: Exactly between the two European events, the US Unemployment Benefits (Claims) are released. It's an explosive mix.
The price of XLM continues to be in an upward trend. If, during its movement, the price tests the FVG 4h zone in the range of $0.1580 - $0.1610, this will be the optimal entry point for a long position. The main target for growth is the current maximum at $0.1850.
Stablecoin supply has remained flat since October, ETF inflows have turned negative, DAT inflows have stalled, and the volume of funds raised has returned to bear market levels. When inflows from all major sources simultaneously slow, price movement typically follows.
The only real factors that could be driving this are the accumulation of RWAs, the gradual return of major players to DeFi, and the potential positive impact of the CLARITY Act.
If these three factors don't lead to real capital inflows, the situation will remain devoid of liquidity.