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既寿永昌
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既寿永昌

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There's Nothing New on Wall Street: Re-reading Livermore, Four Key Points for Retail Investors to Turn the TablesPoint One: Don't be a 'prophet', be a follower of 'structure' Many people are afraid to buy 'facts' because they feel: 'The good news is already out, the stock price has already risen, what else can I buy? Should I be the one to take over?' Here you must understand the difference between two concepts: State and Structure. State Change: Just like throwing a stone into the stream, after the ripples, the water flow returns to its original state. This kind of sudden positive news, when it rises, indeed cannot be chased. Structural Change: Just like building a dam on a stream, the path of the water flow and the ecosystem are fundamentally altered. This change is irreversible and long-term.

There's Nothing New on Wall Street: Re-reading Livermore, Four Key Points for Retail Investors to Turn the Tables

Point One: Don't be a 'prophet', be a follower of 'structure'
Many people are afraid to buy 'facts' because they feel: 'The good news is already out, the stock price has already risen, what else can I buy? Should I be the one to take over?'
Here you must understand the difference between two concepts: State and Structure.
State Change: Just like throwing a stone into the stream, after the ripples, the water flow returns to its original state. This kind of sudden positive news, when it rises, indeed cannot be chased.
Structural Change: Just like building a dam on a stream, the path of the water flow and the ecosystem are fundamentally altered. This change is irreversible and long-term.
Article
There is no truth in the stock market—only 'reflexivity': Re-reading Livermore and uncovering the bottom line of trading profitsI have been struggling in the market for many years, and have seen countless so-called insider information, predictions, and expert opinions. But I am increasingly convinced of Soros's words. “Economic history is an endless performance of falsehoods and lies, not of truth.” Many retail investors lose money because they are always trying to find the 'truth' of the market—how much is this company really worth? Is this positive news really true? There is no truth in the market, only 'reflexivity'. Today, I want to borrow the wisdom of stock trader Livermore, combined with my own practical experience, to talk about how to establish a trading system that can survive and make big profits in a market filled with illusions.

There is no truth in the stock market—only 'reflexivity': Re-reading Livermore and uncovering the bottom line of trading profits

I have been struggling in the market for many years, and have seen countless so-called insider information, predictions, and expert opinions. But I am increasingly convinced of Soros's words.
“Economic history is an endless performance of falsehoods and lies, not of truth.”
Many retail investors lose money because they are always trying to find the 'truth' of the market—how much is this company really worth? Is this positive news really true?
There is no truth in the market, only 'reflexivity'.
Today, I want to borrow the wisdom of stock trader Livermore, combined with my own practical experience, to talk about how to establish a trading system that can survive and make big profits in a market filled with illusions.
Article
There is nothing new on Wall Street; speculation is as ancient as the mountains. Ordinary people seize the once-in-a-lifetime 'era dividend'.Wall Street legend Jesse Livermore once said a stunning remark: 'Bad news cannot stop a bull market, not even a world war can.' At first glance absurd, but if you pull up the S&P or Dow Jones index from the past hundred years and overlay it with the timelines of previous wars, you will find that the direction of the candlestick is only one: northeast (long-term upward). Why? Because the only thing traders need to do is not to panic over the news, but to assess the general trend. What is the general trend? How can one make big money in a noisy market? Today, combining Livermore's wisdom with my twenty years of practical experience, let's talk about how ordinary people can grasp the five key points to 'change their destiny.'

There is nothing new on Wall Street; speculation is as ancient as the mountains. Ordinary people seize the once-in-a-lifetime 'era dividend'.

Wall Street legend Jesse Livermore once said a stunning remark: 'Bad news cannot stop a bull market, not even a world war can.'
At first glance absurd, but if you pull up the S&P or Dow Jones index from the past hundred years and overlay it with the timelines of previous wars, you will find that the direction of the candlestick is only one: northeast (long-term upward).
Why? Because the only thing traders need to do is not to panic over the news, but to assess the general trend.
What is the general trend? How can one make big money in a noisy market? Today, combining Livermore's wisdom with my twenty years of practical experience, let's talk about how ordinary people can grasp the five key points to 'change their destiny.'
Article
There is nothing new on Wall Street, only the human nature you have not understood: Re-reading Livermore, I have comprehended these 5 truths of trading (Part One)There are countless stock books on the market, and the vast majority teach you how to 'succeed'. But if you ask me which book truly counts as the trader's 'Bible', I would unhesitatingly recommend (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator). Why? Because success studies often only sell results, while this book talks about human nature, about thinking, and most importantly, it analyzes failure without reservation. Today, I want to combine Livermore's classic quotes to talk about the 5 truths I have earned with real money in my trading career. Truth one: Don't ask 'why', only ask 'how'.

There is nothing new on Wall Street, only the human nature you have not understood: Re-reading Livermore, I have comprehended these 5 truths of trading (Part One)

There are countless stock books on the market, and the vast majority teach you how to 'succeed'. But if you ask me which book truly counts as the trader's 'Bible', I would unhesitatingly recommend (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator).
Why? Because success studies often only sell results, while this book talks about human nature, about thinking, and most importantly, it analyzes failure without reservation.
Today, I want to combine Livermore's classic quotes to talk about the 5 truths I have earned with real money in my trading career.
Truth one: Don't ask 'why', only ask 'how'.
Article
Is this time different? The last chance to escape is only ninety days.Time: January 27, 2026 Coordinates: Crypto Circle ICU ward Current situation: Bitcoin $88,000, your account halved, panic index 20. Right now, the entire market is filled with an atmosphere of 'lost dog'. The big shots on Twitter are playing dead, and retail investors in the group are comparing their misfortunes. Everyone is asking the same question: 'Is the bull market over?' If you are now nervously preparing to cut your losses, please stop your hand and take a deep breath. You are making a typical, fatal retail investor mistake: committing suicide on the eve of dawn. In this damn market, making money has never relied on luck; it depends on understanding the 'underlying cards that most people cannot see.'

Is this time different? The last chance to escape is only ninety days.

Time: January 27, 2026
Coordinates: Crypto Circle ICU ward
Current situation: Bitcoin $88,000, your account halved, panic index 20.
Right now, the entire market is filled with an atmosphere of 'lost dog'. The big shots on Twitter are playing dead, and retail investors in the group are comparing their misfortunes. Everyone is asking the same question: 'Is the bull market over?'
If you are now nervously preparing to cut your losses, please stop your hand and take a deep breath.
You are making a typical, fatal retail investor mistake: committing suicide on the eve of dawn.
In this damn market, making money has never relied on luck; it depends on understanding the 'underlying cards that most people cannot see.'
When will BTC rise? Possible low point opportunities this week $btc $eth
When will BTC rise?

Possible low point opportunities this week

$btc
$eth
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Bullish
My view on Bitcoin remains unchanged. In my opinion, the top has already appeared at $126,000. From here, I expect the price to consolidate, fluctuating between $74,000 and $112,000, just like it has since my last post and for the past 4 months, possibly touching the previous all-time high but not sustaining new all-time highs. If (this is a big assumption) Bitcoin can regain strength, break the all-time high, and surprise everyone, then my predicted peak price is $136,000/$144,000. This price level is enough to fully validate the prediction of $200,000, trapping the bulls... and then directly entering the distribution phase. Now, whether we break the high timeframe structure first or create a small all-time high first does not change anything. This will not change any timelines. The real market will start in the second quarter of 2026. I expect that between mid-May and mid-June 2026, the cryptocurrency and stock markets will crash in sync, marking the true beginning of the bear market. Before that, I am optimistic about the strong performance of Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins (ALTS), while Bitcoin (BTC) will consolidate or maintain strong momentum above $100,000, providing space for my predictions. Remember, everything should be gradual. Nothing is absolutely certain. We will periodically reassess, adjust, and execute strategies. That is my perspective. $BTC $ETH $DOGE $ADA #比特币2026年价格预测
My view on Bitcoin remains unchanged.

In my opinion, the top has already appeared at $126,000.

From here, I expect the price to consolidate, fluctuating between $74,000 and $112,000, just like it has since my last post and for the past 4 months, possibly touching the previous all-time high but not sustaining new all-time highs.

If (this is a big assumption) Bitcoin can regain strength, break the all-time high, and surprise everyone, then my predicted peak price is $136,000/$144,000.

This price level is enough to fully validate the prediction of $200,000, trapping the bulls... and then directly entering the distribution phase.

Now, whether we break the high timeframe structure first or create a small all-time high first does not change anything.

This will not change any timelines.

The real market will start in the second quarter of 2026.
I expect that between mid-May and mid-June 2026, the cryptocurrency and stock markets will crash in sync, marking the true beginning of the bear market.

Before that, I am optimistic about the strong performance of Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins (ALTS), while Bitcoin (BTC) will consolidate or maintain strong momentum above $100,000, providing space for my predictions.

Remember, everything should be gradual.
Nothing is absolutely certain.
We will periodically reassess, adjust, and execute strategies.
That is my perspective.

$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE
$ADA

#比特币2026年价格预测
Will altcoins rise again in March 2-3? Just as I started saying back in November last year. The altcoin market has already experienced two distinctly different growth periods in 2024. First Growth: Peaked in March 2024, this was the strongest and clearest rise so far, directly coming out of the bear market of 2022/2023. Second Growth: Peaked in December 2024, after enduring a brutal summer sell-off, with Bitcoin prices plummeting to 49/51000 USD. So what happened since then? Altcoins have been silent for 14 months, trapped in a quiet bear market. Meanwhile, all other assets are expanding: Bitcoin, Ethereum, stocks, precious metals... all are rising. Even when Ethereum hit a record high of 4900 USD in August 2025, the altcoin market barely reacted, except for a few exceptions. This indicates one thing: Altcoins have been completely forgotten. Abandoned. Considered dead. Historically, this is precisely when they tend to come back into play. It doesn’t feel like a bear market, and the reason is simple, just as I mentioned before… everything else is continuing to expand aside from them. This expansion has given people hope, making them feel that things are not over yet. People once thought a new round of rise was “guaranteed,” until the massive liquidation event on October 10 completely shattered that hope. This is something we have never experienced in any previous cycle. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of altcoins rising again after enduring such a long period of neglect. February to March 2026 is worth keeping a close eye on👁️ $btc $eth #How to layout altcoin spot positions
Will altcoins rise again in March 2-3?

Just as I started saying back in November last year.
The altcoin market has already experienced two distinctly different growth periods in 2024.

First Growth: Peaked in March 2024, this was the strongest and clearest rise so far, directly coming out of the bear market of 2022/2023.

Second Growth: Peaked in December 2024, after enduring a brutal summer sell-off, with Bitcoin prices plummeting to 49/51000 USD.

So what happened since then?
Altcoins have been silent for 14 months, trapped in a quiet bear market.
Meanwhile, all other assets are expanding:
Bitcoin, Ethereum, stocks, precious metals... all are rising.

Even when Ethereum hit a record high of 4900 USD in August 2025, the altcoin market barely reacted, except for a few exceptions.

This indicates one thing:
Altcoins have been completely forgotten. Abandoned. Considered dead.
Historically, this is precisely when they tend to come back into play.
It doesn’t feel like a bear market, and the reason is simple, just as I mentioned before… everything else is continuing to expand aside from them.

This expansion has given people hope, making them feel that things are not over yet.
People once thought a new round of rise was “guaranteed,” until the massive liquidation event on October 10 completely shattered that hope.

This is something we have never experienced in any previous cycle.
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of altcoins rising again after enduring such a long period of neglect.
February to March 2026 is worth keeping a close eye on👁️

$btc
$eth

#How to layout altcoin spot positions
既寿永昌
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Bullish
I am asked this question every day... 'When will the altcoin season come?'

Let's take a look at one of the most important indicators: BTC.D.
2017: BTC.D dropped from 96% in early March to 60% in mid-May.
2021: BTC.D dropped from 60% in early April to 40% in mid-May.

You see... in just 1-2 months, you can see a complete altcoin season. It just takes a little patience. You've been waiting for 3-4 years, and giving up now could become one of your biggest regrets.

$IWM, gold, and silver have all hit historical highs, and various factors point towards risk assets.

This year's situation is similar, with a key time point around mid-May, where BTC.D may bottom out and rebound. (Though there will be some changes)

I am doing a lot of research on $BTC because that is the most important thing right now. As I said before, Bitcoin hit an all-time high last October when retail participation was almost zero.

If Bitcoin does not hit a new all-time high, believe me, your altcoins will only see a brief rebound.

If Bitcoin sets a new all-time high, retail investors will buy in out of fear of missing out, and your altcoins will soar.

Moreover, I am 100% confident that we will soon see Bitcoin set a new all-time high. I feel like I have found the exact date.

$BTC
$ETH
$ASTER
$DOGE
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Bullish
1. Excess Returns 2. Altcoins + Season 3. The Season of Altcoins Example 1 Late October 2023 → March/April 2024 Our first altcoin season. The market cap of $OTHERS skyrocketed from $100 billion to $475 billion… a nearly 5-fold increase in market cap This means that the market cap of most altcoins increased by 3 to 50 times (yes, I can list over 100 examples, but you should understand my point) The price of $BTC surged from $26,000 to $73,000 While it was only a 3-fold increase, 80% of altcoins outperformed $BTC. That is the definition of altcoin season. Example 2 August/September 2024 → December 2024/January 2025 Altcoin Season #2 Bitcoin price: $49,000-$51,000 → $111,000 (local peak) The price doubled, but altcoins rose again by over 3/4 times (relative to Bitcoin) Once again Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin. Altcoin season is back. Unless the definition of altcoins suddenly changes… please advise. Now fast forward to today If altcoins rise by over 2/3/4 times, while Bitcoin only has a drop of 20-30%... Then it is still altcoin season Example Bitcoin price: up 20/30% Altcoins: up 100% to over 300% That is excess returns. Most of you misunderstand There is no rule stating: #Altseason must rise 50 to 100 times across the board, or $OTHERS must reach an all-time high That is your fantasy, not the fact. Thinking you are entitled to a 100x return is exactly why you are always getting wrecked. Because you refuse to accept this simple fact: 3/4/5 times, or even over 10 times, all belong to #Altseason You do not need a 100x return. What you need is excess returns. And misunderstanding this is what most of you 1- Hold positions too long 2- Miss the best selling opportunities, causing all funds to drop back. $btc $eth $ada $xrp
1. Excess Returns
2. Altcoins + Season
3. The Season of Altcoins

Example 1
Late October 2023 → March/April 2024
Our first altcoin season.
The market cap of $OTHERS skyrocketed from $100 billion to $475 billion… a nearly 5-fold increase in market cap

This means that the market cap of most altcoins increased by 3 to 50 times (yes, I can list over 100 examples, but you should understand my point)

The price of $BTC surged from $26,000 to $73,000
While it was only a 3-fold increase, 80% of altcoins outperformed $BTC.
That is the definition of altcoin season.

Example 2
August/September 2024 → December 2024/January 2025
Altcoin Season #2
Bitcoin price: $49,000-$51,000 → $111,000 (local peak)
The price doubled, but altcoins rose again by over 3/4 times (relative to Bitcoin)
Once again
Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin.
Altcoin season is back.
Unless the definition of altcoins suddenly changes… please advise.

Now fast forward to today
If altcoins rise by over 2/3/4 times, while Bitcoin only has a drop of 20-30%...

Then it is still altcoin season
Example
Bitcoin price: up 20/30%

Altcoins: up 100% to over 300%
That is excess returns.
Most of you misunderstand

There is no rule stating:
#Altseason must rise 50 to 100 times across the board, or $OTHERS must reach an all-time high

That is your fantasy, not the fact.
Thinking you are entitled to a 100x return is exactly why you are always getting wrecked.

Because you refuse to accept this simple fact:
3/4/5 times, or even over 10 times, all belong to #Altseason

You do not need a 100x return.
What you need is excess returns.

And misunderstanding this is what most of you

1- Hold positions too long

2- Miss the best selling opportunities, causing all funds to drop back.

$btc
$eth
$ada
$xrp
Attention to the BTC weekly line! Deciding whether the future will rise or continue to fall $btc $eth $doge $aster
Attention to the BTC weekly line!

Deciding whether the future will rise or continue to fall

$btc
$eth
$doge
$aster
Most people fall from unemployment into despair, ultimately ending up on the streets. The three key elements of poor decisions👁️ Because most people never find the right positioning... they follow the wrong people, are fed scams and lies by algorithms, while the maximum exploitation occurs behind the scenes. Falling into traps and false narratives🪤 Only the strong and seasoned can survive, while most people remain oblivious to the fact that they are merely fuel for maximum exploitation.
Most people fall from unemployment into despair, ultimately ending up on the streets.

The three key elements of poor decisions👁️

Because most people never find the right positioning... they follow the wrong people, are fed scams and lies by algorithms, while the maximum exploitation occurs behind the scenes.

Falling into traps and false narratives🪤

Only the strong and seasoned can survive, while most people remain oblivious to the fact that they are merely fuel for maximum exploitation.
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