Cathy Capital

$SOL Yesterday, price touched 85.8 twice, but neither counted as a breakout.

The 4-hour candle that closed at 16:00 yesterday reached a high of 85.29 and closed at 84.75.

The one that closed at 20:00 reached a high of 85.80 and closed at 84.76.

Both times, price touched above 85.05, but both candles closed below it.

A wick touching the level doesn’t count as a breakout; the closing price has to hold above it.

SOL is around 83.1 now, still some distance from 85.05. On the downside, 81.27 is the other key level.

Same story with BTC: yesterday, the 4-hour candle that closed at 20:00 finished at 74,337, above 74,000.

But the next two candles closed at 73,928 at 00:00 and 73,710 at 04:00, turning 74,000 back into a ceiling.

Getting above it once doesn’t count; holding above it on the next candle does.

So my SOL plan is still the same as yesterday—not a single word has changed.

To the upside: if a 4-hour candle closes above 85.05, the entry zone is 85.05–86, with TP1 at 88, TP2 at 90, and a stop-loss below 83.5.

To the downside: if a 4-hour candle closes below 81.27, the entry zone is 81.27–80.5, with TP1 at 80, TP2 around 77.5 based on the range height, and a stop-loss above 83.5.

In the middle, jumping in as soon as price touches a level is just handing money to the wicks.

BTC is around 73,690. This morning’s plan to wait for 75,000 hasn’t changed; if it doesn’t get there, I’m staying put.

Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at around 195,000 tonight at 21:30. Friday at 08:30, October PPI is the next catalyst.

Do you usually enter as soon as price touches a level, or wait for the candle to close for confirmation?

This is my personal opinion and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data comes out.

$BTC Yesterday’s 4-hour candle closed around 74,337, above 74,000, so the short plan for the hot-CPI scenario is off.

#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook

U.S. stocks kept climbing last night: the Nasdaq closed up about 1.6%, the S&P 500 rose about 1.3%, and the Dow gained about 0.5%.

Chip stocks were still the strongest: Micron rose about 11.9%, Sandisk about 13.7%, CoreWeave about 24.7%, and Nvidia about 2.9%.

BTC finally joined the rally this time: it’s now around 74,440, with a 24-hour high of 74,737 and low of 73,110.

ETH is around 2,077, and SOL around 84.8, still within the 81.27–85.05 range and not above 85.05.

The CPI plan is off, in keeping with last night’s rules: half the position was taken off at TP1 and the remaining half is running at breakeven.

I’m shifting my plan to wait for an upside move.

Upside: If the 4-hour candle closes above 75,000, look to enter on a retest of the 75,000–75,300 zone. TP1 at 76,150, TP2 at 77,000, with a stop below 74,000.

Downside: If the 4-hour candle closes back below 74,000, the range chop continues; a further break below 73,477 would reopen the way to TP2 at 72,000.

The 75,000 ceiling has held after two previous attempts to reclaim it. This time, it comes down to the 4-hour close.

Bank of America just said it wouldn’t rule out a 50 bp rate hike in December, though 25 bp is still the base case; the odds of 50 bp are around 11%.

U.S. initial jobless claims are due tonight at 21:30, expected at around 195,000. Friday at 08:30, October PPI is the next catalyst, with headline expected at 0.4% month over month and core at 0.3%.

Do you think 75,000 will hold this time?

Just my personal view, not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the close.

$BTC chip stocks went crazy, and BTC finally joined in, briefly climbing above 74,000 for the first time

The premarket rebound I mentioned this morning fully played out by the close.
Micron rose about 12.8%, SanDisk about 15.5%, CoreWeave about 23.6%, and Nvidia about 4.1%.
The Nasdaq gained about 1.9%, the S&P 500 about 1.4%. For the first time in days, U.S. stocks and crypto rose together.
BTC is now around 74,200, with a 24-hour high of 74,710 and a low of 73,110. It finally broke through the 74,000 ceiling of this range.
ETH is around 2,074 and SOL around 84.5; both have also moved higher.
Don't rush to call it a breakout—the confirmation isn't there yet.
The 4-hour candle at 16:00 closed at 73,917, below 74,000.
The current 4-hour candle closes at 3 p.m. ET. It only counts if it closes above 74,000.
Here's my plan.
If it closes above 74,000: the short plan for the hotter-CPI scenario is off the table; first, watch the 75,000 ceiling.
If it closes back below 74,000: the range-bound chop continues. If it breaks below 73,477, then watch TP2 at 72,000.
Half of the position at TP1, around 73,176, has already been closed. The stop-loss on the remaining half is still around breakeven.
There are no major data releases tonight. The next catalyst is Friday's October PPI.
Do you think this 4-hour candle can close above 74,000?
Personal opinion only; not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the close.

$BTC U.S. chip stocks are rebounding across the board premarket, while crypto is still grinding between 73,477–74,000

CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year, with a backlog of $132.5 billion. Its shares are up about 16% premarket.
Chips are rallying too: Nasdaq futures are up about 1.9%, and S&P 500 futures about 1.0%.
Nvidia is around 174.5 premarket, up about 3.3%; Micron is around 774, up about 6.7%; and SanDisk is around 933, up about 8.6%.
U.S. stocks still closed lower yesterday: the Nasdaq fell about 0.7%, and the S&P 500 about 0.4%.
BTC is now around 73,590, with a 24-hour high of 74,753 and low of 72,643. It still hasn’t broken out of this 73,477–74,000 range.
ETH is around 2,048, and SOL around 83.9. The 81.27–85.05 range I mentioned last night is also still intact.
In last night’s more aggressive setup, TP1 around 73,176 was reached, so half the position was closed. The stop-loss on the remaining half is around breakeven while we wait for a direction.
My plan hasn’t changed: I’m only watching the 4-hour close on either side.
To the upside: a close above 74,000 invalidates the more aggressive setup; first, watch the 75,000 ceiling.
To the downside: another close below 73,477 reopens TP2 at 72,000, with the stop-loss above 74,000.
I’m staying out in the middle of the range. Chasing rallies or selling off is the easiest way to get caught on both sides.
Today is Veterans Day in the U.S. The bond market is closed, but stocks are open as usual. There are no major data releases; the next event to watch is Friday’s October PPI.
Do you think a big jump in U.S. stocks at today’s open will lift crypto, or will crypto keep grinding within its range?
These are my personal views and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data.

$SOL fell from 103.77 at the end of October to 81.27, a drop of about 22%. It’s now stuck in the middle at 83.7.

Today is Veterans Day in the U.S., so there are no major data releases.

SOL has moved only between 81.27 and 85.05 over the past 24 hours, a range of less than $4.

There’s no point guessing the direction in such a narrow range. Wait for it to pick a side.

My plan is to watch just two trigger points.

To the upside: If the 4-hour candle closes above 85.05, the entry zone is 85.05–86. TP1 is 88, and TP2 is 90.

90 is around where it traded sideways on November 6–7. Place the stop below 83.5; if it falls back to the middle of the range, admit the trade was wrong.

To the downside: If the 4-hour candle closes below 81.27, the entry zone is 81.27–80.5. TP1 is 80, and TP2 is around 77.5, measured based on the range height.

Place the stop above 83.5; if it moves back to the middle of the range, admit the trade was wrong.

Why these two prices? 85.05 is the 24-hour high, and 81.27 is the low from CPI night.

Until either level breaks, stay out. Chasing rallies or selling off within the range is the easiest way to get caught on both sides.

One more correlation to watch: BTC is around 73,900 and is still grinding between 73,477 and 74,000.

If BTC breaks below 72,643 first, SOL’s downside trigger becomes more likely.

ETH is around 2,053 and is also going nowhere.

October PPI on Friday is the next catalyst. Until then, we’ll most likely stay in a range.

Do you think SOL will break 85 first, or 81?

Just my personal view—not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data comes out.

$BTC TP1 was hit on last night's slightly bullish setup.

Entry zone: 73,400–73,000, with TP1 at 73,176.

The 4-hour candle that closed at noon finished at 72,794. TP1 was hit, with a low of 72,643.

But then it bounced back. It's now around 73,500, back above 73,477.

The easiest mistake to make here is to do nothing after TP1 is hit and wait for price to drop again on its own.

I handle it in two steps.

First, take half off at TP1, locking in profits around 73,176.

Second, move the stop loss on the remaining half to around the entry price.

That way, there's no need to worry if it bounces back. The remaining half is basically around breakeven, so you can let it run risk-free.

If it moves lower, a 4-hour close below 73,477 would bring TP2 at 72,000 back into play.

If it moves higher, a 4-hour close above 74,000 invalidates this setup. The remaining half exits at breakeven, for no gain or loss.

Profits from TP1 that you don't take are just on paper—they disappear if price bounces back.

Closing everything means giving up TP2 for nothing.

Taking half off and letting the other half run risk-free—that's what a good plan looks like.

ETH is around 2,058, SOL around 82.9. Altcoins are still weaker than Bitcoin.

It's Veterans Day in the U.S. today, so there are no major data releases. The next thing to watch is October PPI on Friday.

When TP1 is hit, do you usually close everything or leave half running?

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data comes out.

$BTC The hotter-than-expected CPI scenario: TP1 hit, but bears shouldn’t rush to chase—the price has bounced back

#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook

Core CPI came in at 0.3% last night, above the expected 0.2%, bringing talk of a December rate hike back into the picture.

After the data came out, BTC plunged to 72,643, breaking below the 200-day moving average at around 73,176.

The 4-hour candle that closed at midnight finished around 72,794, below 73,477. The hotter-than-expected scenario was confirmed, and TP1 was hit.

But then the price bounced back: the 4-hour candle at 16:00 closed around 73,685, back above 73,477. This morning, it was around 73,710.

By last night’s rules, a 4-hour close back above the trigger level means the downward momentum is weakening for now. Don’t stubbornly chase it down to 72,000.

U.S. stocks also fell last night: the Nasdaq closed down about 0.7%, the S&P 500 fell around 0.4%, and the Dow dropped roughly 0.3%.

Nvidia was hit hardest, closing down about 5.5%. Micron fell around 1.1%, and SanDisk about 3%.

ETH is around 2,052 and SOL around 83.2. Smaller coins are still falling harder than Bitcoin.

My plan is to wait for direction, not chase.

To the upside: a 4-hour close above 74,000 would signal that this sell-off is easing. First, watch the 75,000 ceiling.

To the downside: if a 4-hour candle closes below 73,477 again, TP2 at 72,000 is back in play. Place the stop-loss above 74,000.

Invalidation: a 4-hour close back above 75,000 completely invalidates the hotter-than-expected scenario. A break below last night’s low of 72,643 puts 72,000 directly in view.

Today is Veterans Day in the U.S. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open as usual. There’s no major data on the calendar; the next thing to watch is Friday’s October PPI.

Do you think 73,477 will hold this time, or will it break again tonight?

This is my personal opinion and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data.

$BTC The 4-hour candle we were waiting to close this morning confirmed it at noon: it closed around 72,794

#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook

CPI came in hot, with core at 0.3%. After the data, that morning spike hit 73,400.
At 10 a.m., it surged once more to 74,753, but that was just a 15-minute wick.
The 4-hour candle that closed at noon finished around 72,794, firmly below 73,477.
The trigger conditions I mentioned this morning are now all in place.
TP1 was hit too: the morning low reached around 72,643, breaking below the 200-day moving average at around 73,176.
Anyone who took partial profits at TP1 as planned has already locked in gains from this move.
Price is now around 73,320, caught between TP1 and the 73,477 trigger level.
My plan hasn’t changed: TP2 is still at 72,000, and the stop-loss remains above 74,000.
If a 4-hour candle closes back above 73,477, the downward momentum will have weakened for now, so don’t chase it.
This morning I asked whether U.S. stocks would follow the decline, and they did: the Nasdaq was down around 1.1%, the S&P 500 around 0.6%, and the Dow around 0.4%.
Nvidia was hit hardest, down around 5.9%; Micron fell around 2.9%, and SanDisk around 4.1%. All the memory stocks that rose yesterday gave back their gains today.
ETH is around 2,040, SOL around 82.7, and smaller coins are falling harder than Bitcoin.
75,000 is still the ceiling, but nobody’s talking about it anymore today.
Do you think the 72,000 level will hold tonight?
These are my personal views and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data.

$BTC CPI came in hot, with core at 0.3% versus expectations of 0.2%. Last night’s hotter-than-expected scenario has triggered its first step.

#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook

October CPI: headline rose 0.4% month over month, versus expectations of 0.3%; core rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%.
Core CPI has come in at 0.3% for three consecutive months. Waller just said that a 0.3% reading could prompt consideration of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December.
After the data, BTC plunged in a single wick to 73,400, breaking below the 73,477 trigger level I mentioned last night and just touching the upper end of the 73,400–73,000 entry zone.
But the price didn’t close below that level and has now bounced back to around 73,700. We still don’t have confirmation from a 4-hour close.
My plan is unchanged: if you haven’t entered, don’t chase. Wait for a 4-hour close below 73,477 before following through, or watch for a retest around 73,400.
TP1 is the 200-day moving average, around 73,176; TP2 is 72,000. Place the stop-loss above 74,000.
If the 4-hour candle closes back above 74,000, the hotter-than-expected scenario is off the table for now.
ETH is around 2,062 and SOL around 83.8; smaller coins are falling harder than BTC.
Before the U.S. market open, Nasdaq futures are down about 1%, the S&P 500 is down about 0.6%, and Dow futures are down about 0.2%.
Nvidia is around 175 in premarket trading, down about 2%; Micron is around 713 and SanDisk around 857. The memory stocks that rose yesterday are giving back some of those gains in premarket trading today.
75,000 remains the ceiling. CPI has first set the crypto market ablaze; we’ll see at the open whether U.S. stocks follow suit.
Do you think U.S. stocks will follow the decline at tonight’s open, or treat CPI as the last bad news and move on?
These are my personal views and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data.

$BTC Tonight at 21:30: October CPI. Core month-over-month is expected at 0.2%, versus 0.3% previously.

#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook

This is the final CPI report before the December rate meeting. Tonight, I’m not guessing the direction—just watching for trigger points.

Cooler than expected, with core month-over-month at ≤0.1%: Wait for the 4-hour candle to close back above 75,000 before making a move.

Entry zone: 75,000–75,300 on a pullback. TP1 around 76,150; TP2 around 77,000.

Place the stop below 74,600. Exit immediately on a false breakout.

Hotter than expected, with core month-over-month at ≥0.3%: Fed Governor Waller just said that a 0.3% reading could prompt consideration of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December.

The trigger is a break below 73,477. Entry zone: 73,400–73,000. TP1 at the 200-day moving average, around 73,176; TP2 at 72,000.

Place the stop above 74,000.

In line with expectations at 0.2%: Stay on the sidelines and wait for the first 4-hour candle to close before reassessing.

BTC is currently around 74,305, with a 24-hour high of 75,477 and low of 74,014. 75,000 remains the ceiling.

Do you think tonight’s CPI will come in hot or cool?

These are my personal views and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data is released.

$BTC Morning: around 74,940; midday: around 74,490. It climbed back to 75,000, then fell again—that’s not stability.

This morning it was around 74,940, briefly reclaiming 75,000 and peaking at around 75,259.
It didn’t hold: by midday it was back around 74,490, down about $450 in half a day.
Repeatedly battling around 75,000, climbing above it only to fall back—that’s weakness.
ETH is around 2,113 and SOL around 85.8; over 24 hours, one is down about 1.5% and the other about 2%.
Smaller coins are falling harder than Bitcoin, showing that the market has little appetite for risk.
Moving sideways below resistance isn’t stability—it’s weakness. Every failed bounce wears down buying pressure.
October CPI is out tonight at 21:30. Core month-over-month inflation is expected to be around 0.2%, compared with 0.3% previously.
Don’t guess the direction ahead of the data tonight. Wait for the first 4-hour candle to close, then take a look.
A 4-hour close back above 75,000 would offer some relief. If it falls below 73,477, the next level to watch is the 200-day moving average, around 73,176.
These are my personal views and not investment advice. Follow me for the CPI results.

$BTC U.S. stocks rose about 2.7% at Monday’s close, but crypto still hasn’t caught up

The Nasdaq closed up about 2.7%, the S&P 500 rose about 2.3%, and the Dow gained about 2.2%.
Storage stocks led the gains: Micron rose about 6.3%, and SanDisk gained about 6.2%.
Nvidia was still down, closing about 4.3% lower.
BTC is now around 74,940, with 75,000 still acting as a ceiling.
It moved about $2,000 in 24 hours, with a high of around 75,640 and a low of around 73,636.
ETH is around 2,125 and SOL around 86.4—both basically holding steady.
The weekly candle has closed: last week ended around 74,754, down about 4.4% for the week and below the 50-week moving average near 75,733. That makes five consecutive down weeks.
October CPI is due tonight at 21:30. Core CPI is expected to rise about 0.2% month over month, versus 0.3% previously.
This is the last CPI report before the December rate-setting meeting. I’m not betting on a direction the night before the data.
BTC needs to get back above 75,000 for some breathing room. If it falls below 73,477, the next level to watch is the 200-day moving average near 73,176.
These are my personal views and not investment advice. Follow me for the CPI results.

$BTC U.S. stocks rebounded across the board, but crypto still didn't catch up.

Nasdaq rose about 2.6%, the S&P 500 about 2.3%, and the Dow about 2.2%.
Chip and memory stocks led the gains: Micron rose about 5.5%, and SanDisk about 5.6%.
Nvidia was still down, by about 5.6%; it had fallen even more in premarket trading this morning.
BTC is around 74,600, versus about 74,500 this morning—basically unchanged all day.
75,000 is still the ceiling; the 24-hour high was only about 75,848.
ETH is around 2,122, down about 4.9% over 24 hours; SOL is around 86.5, down about 3.1%.
The rebound in U.S. stocks didn't lift crypto, which suggests this rally hasn't reached the crypto market yet.
October CPI is tomorrow at 08:30. That's the real test.
BTC needs to get back above 75,000 for some breathing room; below 73,477, the next level to watch is the 200-day moving average at around 73,176.
These are my personal views, not investment advice. Follow me for the CPI results.

$BTC Futures are all in the green, but Nvidia is down more than 6% premarket

Monday morning, BTC is around 74,500.
Futures are green: the Nasdaq is up about 0.8%, the S&P 500 about 0.8%, and the Dow about 1.2%.
Crypto hasn’t followed futures and is still struggling below 75,000.
Nvidia is around 174.65 premarket, down about 6.4%.
OpenAI and Anthropic called for a slowdown in AI development, and AI stocks took the first hit.
Micron and SanDisk initially fell along with them in early trading, hitting premarket lows of around 680 and 817 before recovering.
Micron is around 699 premarket, up about 1.3%; SanDisk is around 837, up about 0.2%.
TSMC played down plans to enter the memory market, giving storage stocks some relief.
BTC briefly fell to around 73,770 overnight. The 07:45 15-minute candle this morning reached a high of 75,012 before being pushed back down.
ETH is around 2,118, down about 5.3% over 24 hours; SOL is around 86.8, down about 2.7%.
There are no major U.S. economic releases today. The real test is October’s CPI tomorrow at 08:30.
At the open, watch one thing: can the Nasdaq withstand the drag from Nvidia?
BTC needs to get back above 75,000 for some relief; if it falls below 73,477, the next level to watch is the 200-day moving average around 73,176.
These are my personal views and not investment advice. Follow me for the opening update.

$BTC 75,000 wasn't reclaimed, and by evening it was back around 74,430.

It popped to around 74,890 at midday, about $100 short of 75,000.

In the afternoon, every 15-minute candle closed below 75,000, with the highest close around 74,837.

It’s now around 74,430. The day’s high-low range is about $2,600, and the low is still that overnight wick at 73,477.

ETH is around 2,116 and SOL around 86.3; neither kept up with the rebound.

The 50-week moving average, around 75,733, is still hanging overhead. 75,000 has turned from a floor into a ceiling.

U.S. markets open at 21:30 tonight, with Nasdaq futures up around 0.5%. First, let’s see if sentiment can help bring it back.

Tomorrow night at 21:30, October CPI is due. Core month-over-month is expected to be around 0.2%, versus 0.3% previously.

This is the last CPI report before the December rate decision, so I’m not betting on a direction the night before the data.

A move back above 75,000 would offer some short-term relief. If 73,477 breaks, the next level to watch is the 200-day moving average, around 73,176.

This is my personal opinion, not investment advice. Follow me, and tomorrow morning we’ll see how the CPI plays out.

$BTC 75,000 broke, then bounced back to around 74,900 midday. Does that count as a reclaim?

No.

Broken support turns into resistance. A reclaim depends on the closing price, not just an intraday touch.

The price is still about $100 below 75,000, and the 50-week moving average, around 75,733, is still overhead.

This bounce is a retest, not a reclaim.

The conditions for a reclaim are specific: a 4-hour close back above 75,000, preferably also reclaiming 75,733. Only then would this wick count as a false breakdown.

If it can’t reclaim those levels, the next downside target is around 74,000, followed by the 200-day moving average at about 73,176.

Over 24 hours, the price moved about $2,600, with a high of 76,095 and a low of 73,477. ETH is around 2,141 and SOL around 87.4.

Tuesday at 08:30 ET, October CPI is the next catalyst. After a breakdown, don’t rush to call the bottom.

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Follow me to see whether this level can be reclaimed.

$BTC $ETH $SOL
75,000 held for a week. About an hour and a half before the close, it broke.

The 16:45 15-minute candle wicked down to around 73,477.

It’s now around 74,400, down about $1,370 from the U.S. afternoon level.

The 50-week moving average, around 75,733, is back overhead, and 75,000 has turned from a floor into a ceiling.

ETH at around 2,126 and SOL at around 86.5 slid along with it, down about 4.5% and 2.9% respectively over 24 hours.

This isn’t a minor weekend wobble: 75,000 is the level we’ve been watching all week, and breaking it means another step down in weakness.

First, watch the area around 74,000, then the 200-day moving average at around 73,176.

But the closing price isn’t set yet: the weekly candle closes at 19:00. If it gets back above 75,000, this wick can be treated as a false breakdown for now.

Futures open first at 18:00. Tonight, we’ll see whether Asia steps in.

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice. I’m watching the weekly close—follow me to see the next level.

$BTC $ETH $SOL
Now around 75,773, with the 50-week moving average at about 75,733—a difference of just around $40.
Price is sitting right on the moving average, with about four and a half hours until the weekly close.
It was around 75,855 this morning and has moved only about $80 since then.
The 24-hour high was around 76,095 and the low around 75,453, a range of about $640.
The week opened around 78,232, and the price is now down about 3.1%.
A fifth straight weekly decline looks all but certain. The only question is whether it closes above or below the moving average.
A close above it would offer some short-term relief; a close below it would mean weakness continues.
Futures open first at 18:00, and the weekly candle closes at 19:00. We’ll know tonight.
ETH is around 2,230 and SOL around 89.3—both just moving sideways.
These are my personal views, not investment advice. I’m watching the weekly close—follow me to see the next update.

$BTC Just touched 76,000 at 8 a.m., then got pushed back down

Sunday morning, BTC is around 75,855.
The 8 a.m. hourly candle peaked at 76,095, then closed back at 75,822.
The 76,000 level has been tested and rejected again today.
Saturday’s high was 76,152, and it couldn’t hold there either.
Honestly, prices have been stuck in a $700 range between 75,450 and 76,150 all weekend.
The 50-week moving average, around 75,733, is overhead, with 75,000 below.
There are two key times tonight: 18:00 ET, when futures open, and 19:00, when the weekly candle closes.
From Monday’s open of around 78,232 to now, the weekly candle is down about 3.1%, making a fifth consecutive weekly decline all but certain.
There’s just one thing to watch: will it close above the 50-week moving average, around 75,733?
A close above it would offer some short-term relief; a close below would mean weakness continues.
ETH is around 2,237, and SOL around 89.2—both similarly stuck in place.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 28, in fear territory.
The next catalyst is October’s CPI data, due Tuesday at 08:30 ET.
Just my personal opinion—not investment advice. Follow me for the weekly close results.

$BTC $ETH $SOL
It moved only about $410 in 24 hours, and Saturday’s daily candle was still the narrowest of the month.
BTC is now around 75,863, ETH around 2,238, and SOL around 89.6—all going nowhere.
And it’s not just been flat for a day: price has been grinding around the 50-week moving average near 75,733 for four days now, and it hasn’t touched 75,000 again today.
This weekly candle closes tonight at 19:00 Eastern Time, or 8:00 Monday morning Beijing time.
Whether it closes above or below the moving average will determine whether this is a small down candle in a five-week losing streak, or a chance to catch its footing first.
Two things to watch tonight: futures open at 18:00 Eastern, followed by the Asian markets.
On Monday, Strategy will disclose whether it made its weekly purchase, and Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. brings October’s CPI.
CPI is the last report before the December rate decision. Core month-over-month inflation is expected to be around 0.2%, versus 0.3% previously.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 28, in fear territory. That’s a little less fearful than yesterday’s 25, but still fearful.
So I’m not guessing the direction tonight: a weekly close above 75,733 would offer some short-term relief; a break below 75,000 would take weakness down another notch.
Just my personal view, not investment advice. I’ll be watching the weekly close and CPI when the data comes out. Follow me for the next update.