$BTC The hotter-than-expected CPI scenario: TP1 hit, but bears shouldn’t rush to chase—the price has bounced back
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
Core CPI came in at 0.3% last night, above the expected 0.2%, bringing talk of a December rate hike back into the picture.
After the data came out, BTC plunged to 72,643, breaking below the 200-day moving average at around 73,176.
The 4-hour candle that closed at midnight finished around 72,794, below 73,477. The hotter-than-expected scenario was confirmed, and TP1 was hit.
But then the price bounced back: the 4-hour candle at 16:00 closed around 73,685, back above 73,477. This morning, it was around 73,710.
By last night’s rules, a 4-hour close back above the trigger level means the downward momentum is weakening for now. Don’t stubbornly chase it down to 72,000.
U.S. stocks also fell last night: the Nasdaq closed down about 0.7%, the S&P 500 fell around 0.4%, and the Dow dropped roughly 0.3%.
Nvidia was hit hardest, closing down about 5.5%. Micron fell around 1.1%, and SanDisk about 3%.
ETH is around 2,052 and SOL around 83.2. Smaller coins are still falling harder than Bitcoin.
My plan is to wait for direction, not chase.
To the upside: a 4-hour close above 74,000 would signal that this sell-off is easing. First, watch the 75,000 ceiling.
To the downside: if a 4-hour candle closes below 73,477 again, TP2 at 72,000 is back in play. Place the stop-loss above 74,000.
Invalidation: a 4-hour close back above 75,000 completely invalidates the hotter-than-expected scenario. A break below last night’s low of 72,643 puts 72,000 directly in view.
Today is Veterans Day in the U.S. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open as usual. There’s no major data on the calendar; the next thing to watch is Friday’s October PPI.
Do you think 73,477 will hold this time, or will it break again tonight?
This is my personal opinion and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
Core CPI came in at 0.3% last night, above the expected 0.2%, bringing talk of a December rate hike back into the picture.
After the data came out, BTC plunged to 72,643, breaking below the 200-day moving average at around 73,176.
The 4-hour candle that closed at midnight finished around 72,794, below 73,477. The hotter-than-expected scenario was confirmed, and TP1 was hit.
But then the price bounced back: the 4-hour candle at 16:00 closed around 73,685, back above 73,477. This morning, it was around 73,710.
By last night’s rules, a 4-hour close back above the trigger level means the downward momentum is weakening for now. Don’t stubbornly chase it down to 72,000.
U.S. stocks also fell last night: the Nasdaq closed down about 0.7%, the S&P 500 fell around 0.4%, and the Dow dropped roughly 0.3%.
Nvidia was hit hardest, closing down about 5.5%. Micron fell around 1.1%, and SanDisk about 3%.
ETH is around 2,052 and SOL around 83.2. Smaller coins are still falling harder than Bitcoin.
My plan is to wait for direction, not chase.
To the upside: a 4-hour close above 74,000 would signal that this sell-off is easing. First, watch the 75,000 ceiling.
To the downside: if a 4-hour candle closes below 73,477 again, TP2 at 72,000 is back in play. Place the stop-loss above 74,000.
Invalidation: a 4-hour close back above 75,000 completely invalidates the hotter-than-expected scenario. A break below last night’s low of 72,643 puts 72,000 directly in view.
Today is Veterans Day in the U.S. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open as usual. There’s no major data on the calendar; the next thing to watch is Friday’s October PPI.
Do you think 73,477 will hold this time, or will it break again tonight?
This is my personal opinion and not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the data.
