$BTC Yesterday’s 4-hour candle closed around 74,337, above 74,000, so the short plan for the hot-CPI scenario is off.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
U.S. stocks kept climbing last night: the Nasdaq closed up about 1.6%, the S&P 500 rose about 1.3%, and the Dow gained about 0.5%.
Chip stocks were still the strongest: Micron rose about 11.9%, Sandisk about 13.7%, CoreWeave about 24.7%, and Nvidia about 2.9%.
BTC finally joined the rally this time: it’s now around 74,440, with a 24-hour high of 74,737 and low of 73,110.
ETH is around 2,077, and SOL around 84.8, still within the 81.27–85.05 range and not above 85.05.
The CPI plan is off, in keeping with last night’s rules: half the position was taken off at TP1 and the remaining half is running at breakeven.
I’m shifting my plan to wait for an upside move.
Upside: If the 4-hour candle closes above 75,000, look to enter on a retest of the 75,000–75,300 zone. TP1 at 76,150, TP2 at 77,000, with a stop below 74,000.
Downside: If the 4-hour candle closes back below 74,000, the range chop continues; a further break below 73,477 would reopen the way to TP2 at 72,000.
The 75,000 ceiling has held after two previous attempts to reclaim it. This time, it comes down to the 4-hour close.
Bank of America just said it wouldn’t rule out a 50 bp rate hike in December, though 25 bp is still the base case; the odds of 50 bp are around 11%.
U.S. initial jobless claims are due tonight at 21:30, expected at around 195,000. Friday at 08:30, October PPI is the next catalyst, with headline expected at 0.4% month over month and core at 0.3%.
Do you think 75,000 will hold this time?
Just my personal view, not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the close.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
U.S. stocks kept climbing last night: the Nasdaq closed up about 1.6%, the S&P 500 rose about 1.3%, and the Dow gained about 0.5%.
Chip stocks were still the strongest: Micron rose about 11.9%, Sandisk about 13.7%, CoreWeave about 24.7%, and Nvidia about 2.9%.
BTC finally joined the rally this time: it’s now around 74,440, with a 24-hour high of 74,737 and low of 73,110.
ETH is around 2,077, and SOL around 84.8, still within the 81.27–85.05 range and not above 85.05.
The CPI plan is off, in keeping with last night’s rules: half the position was taken off at TP1 and the remaining half is running at breakeven.
I’m shifting my plan to wait for an upside move.
Upside: If the 4-hour candle closes above 75,000, look to enter on a retest of the 75,000–75,300 zone. TP1 at 76,150, TP2 at 77,000, with a stop below 74,000.
Downside: If the 4-hour candle closes back below 74,000, the range chop continues; a further break below 73,477 would reopen the way to TP2 at 72,000.
The 75,000 ceiling has held after two previous attempts to reclaim it. This time, it comes down to the 4-hour close.
Bank of America just said it wouldn’t rule out a 50 bp rate hike in December, though 25 bp is still the base case; the odds of 50 bp are around 11%.
U.S. initial jobless claims are due tonight at 21:30, expected at around 195,000. Friday at 08:30, October PPI is the next catalyst, with headline expected at 0.4% month over month and core at 0.3%.
Do you think 75,000 will hold this time?
Just my personal view, not investment advice. Follow me for my first take after the close.
