Eric SJ

Attention all traders:

From now on, before making any trades, especially in the morning, I will post an intraday trend analysis for the assets we're targeting, usually BTC, ETH, and SOL.

The trading direction and analysis for the day will primarily follow this note, and the trend must remain consistent unless I explicitly indicate a direction change.

If there's a violation, I'll be sending out red envelopes for each infraction!

$BTC has really almost sixty-three thousand, brothers

Sixty-four thousand is support; hanging a long order here is no problem. If you don’t get filled, that’s that.

In short, hang a long order at sixty-four thousand—the risk-reward ratio is incredibly solid!

First, let's pull out the Intel $INTC earnings report data

This quarter’s revenue figures set the fastest year-over-year quarterly growth in fifteen years

And the gross margin has also seen a tangible recovery

But this earnings report isn’t all good news—we still need to further break down the business lines and revenue sources

I’ll send the full take a bit later 😉

Big pancake $BTC : within the day, if it can't break above 65,000 and stays stuck, it's possible to return to 63,000 today—not that it’s impossible.

Big pancake $BTC The ecosystem has been quiet for a long time without any market buzz.

Previously, the leading Bitcoin ecosystem project Babylon

Its narrative is shifting from the easily understood “BTC staking” to “BTC collateral infrastructure.”

That means that what Babylon mainly solved in the past was:

Can BTC provide economic security to PoS chains, L2s, and other networks?

But the Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) it launched are not just about using native Bitcoin as collateral.

They also allow users, without wrapping BTC, without using cross-chain bridges, and without needing to trust intermediary institutions, to use native Bitcoin as collateral in any chain and any application.

Applications integrating TBV can build a variety of financial products based on native Bitcoin collateral.

It sounds like it’s still BTC staking, but at the base layer it solves:

Can BTC become collateral for on-chain finance without leaving the Bitcoin network?

Both seem like “activating BTC,” but the business models are completely different:

Bitcoin staking is more about security services.
TBV is more about financial infrastructure.
The former earns from network security demand.
The latter connects to demand for lending, stablecoins, fixed-rate credit, insurance, and derivatives.

Plainly put:

Previously, Babylon wanted to use dormant BTC to “defend other networks.”
Now it wants BTC to enter a protocol’s balance sheet, becoming the underlying collateral that can be used to borrow, finance, and build financial products.

This narrative needs to be bigger: @BabylonLabs_io

#baby $BABY

“This time the key stretch sprint failed. This year maybe you really can see BTC starting with 4”

Whether the BTC ETF’s capital flows will turn into sustained net inflows in the short term is very important—rather than entering today and exiting tomorrow, then entering the day after tomorrow and exiting the next day.

Sustained net inflows into the big coin $BTC is what provides the basis to retest the upper range.

So the place we’re currently in is still very critical.

(This time the sprint failed; this year maybe you really can see BTC starting with 4.)

I rarely zoom out to use a larger time-frame chart to elaborate my view, but this time it’s necessary, because in recent days, as the big coin has rebounded, many friends have already started to fall into extremely optimistic sentiment about the outlook.

But if you take a bigger perspective, this portion of the rebound right now doesn’t have much strength, while resistance overhead is getting layer upon layer.

However, based on all the factors, it’s still a bit hard to imagine BTC starting with 4. In the short term, it feels clear that the bill will still land, and that in turn can push a breakout of this range.

In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin fell from about $88,800 on January 1 to about $58,600 on June 30 (according to Binance data), a drop of roughly 34% over six months.

As shown in the chart, other major traditional assets during the same period performed as follows.

Bitcoin <c-1> $BTC </c-1> clearly underperformed the major U.S. stock indexes and gold, and even crude oil.

Is there a chance it can outperform in the second half?....

$BTC down 1000 points

A Quick Aside

Before, many “Old Era L1s” were packed together to build Ethereum L2s, because at the time the market was more willing to buy into that idea

In essence, it’s the second surrender of the old era

Back then, I really liked writing and sharing certain projects that had been developed for years but hadn’t received much attention from the market (Web3 niche guys)

Later I realized that trying to get “an eighty-something old man to get on a horse and imitate Napoleon to conquer Europe” just isn’t realistic

It was also when large numbers of L1s and old projects started joining the Ethereum ecosystem, yet still saw not a hint of improvement, that I realized it

That’s why the discussion about “trading the new but not the old” has a real basis

Many old projects have always thought:

If the market won’t buy it, the market just didn’t understand it

In the end, out of sheer helplessness, they first chose to be compatible with EVM and then build L2

As a result, the deployment and access barriers dropped, but the users never came

Only then did they finally understand:

The issue was never whether it was L1 or L2

It was simply that it never had real demand, the ability to distribute effectively, or the capability to reorganize the market

$SUI 試一試: Open a short position on the left side of the current price, wait for a pullback; the risk-reward ratio is still acceptable

Some indicators on the 15-minute and 1-hour cycles are currently at elevated levels, so there is a possibility of a reversal

Wait for the 5-minute cycle to transmit upward

No need to post the chart

This Sui Dollar promotion from SUI has garnered hundreds of millions in views

It keeps getting pushed to my timeline every day

So I checked the scale—turns out it’s only about $65 million

What does that mean?

On Defillama’s stablecoin ranking, it’s #60, making up about 0.02% of the entire stablecoin market

I had Grok calculate the approximate promotion cost for this Sui post:
$600,000 - $2.5 million

Are you kidding me?

$AVAX Need to rebound; indicators are all at low levels

On the smaller timeframe, a pin bar pattern has formed

Target around 6.49

Zoom in to look at the 15-minute chart of $BTC —does it look like a bearish continuation triangle?

You can see the highs are continuously getting lower and there are repeated upper wicks.

This large pancake $BTC looks like it might not make it, and a temporary pullback may be coming. There are still some long positions here, and I think it’s a good idea to take partial profits.

Don’t chase short positions casually, because the current price is too close to the next support—there aren’t enough pullback points to justify it 🥲

I discovered something quite counterintuitive

As everyone (probably) knows: Hyperliquid’s on-chain application revenue has been consistently #1, while Pump.fun has been trailing not far behind for the most part

But when I was整理 Q2 on-chain operational data, I found that:

In Pump.fun’s most recent two quarters, the protocol revenue actually surpassed Hyperliquid

This result is definitely a bit unexpected

➠ For now, I’ll set aside costs and won’t discuss them first (I’ll get to it later)

Every time I open DefiLLama, Pump.fun is always behind Hyperliquid
I didn’t expect that, when summed quarterly, #2 would end up being more aggressive than #1

_____________________________________

I compared the revenue mix further:

Pump.fun has as many as 8 revenue components, and none of them individually contributes more than 35%

But for Hyperliquid, a single transaction fee accounts for over 80%

So in terms of overall revenue scale, Pump.fun might be the 👍 (this is the most counterintuitive part of the data)
But when it comes to profit quality, Hyperliquid is the 👍 (which makes sense)

And this is just based on these two data points

📍 Quick teaser: later I’ll break down the Q2 “on-chain financial report” data

TSMC $TSMB This earnings report is strong enough

Yet the stock price isn’t celebrating—it’s under pressure instead

Master Shi, please translate it for me. What exactly counts as a “surprise”?

The issues TSMC faces now are no longer about whether “revenue can grow.” Instead, it’s about whether growth can continue to beat market expectations that are already extremely high.

What the market wants is no longer just a surprise.

It wants one surprise after another—

just like ASML, which delivered its results the day before, and this time TSMC also put out an earnings report where it’s almost impossible to find any obvious fundamental flaws:

➠ 2026 Q2 net profit of about $22.36 billion, up 23.4% quarter-over-quarter, and up about 74.3% year-over-year—clearly above market expectations
➠ Revenue of $40.2 billion, also at the upper end of the company’s prior guidance range of $39.0 billion–$40.2 billion

More importantly, as a heavy-asset manufacturing company—while building the world’s most expensive fabs, continuing to invest in the most advanced processes, and also bearing equipment depreciation, energy, labor, and overseas expansion costs—yet it still managed to deliver profit margins close to those of a software company.

That’s where TSMC is truly outrageous.

But for these AI-sector giants, the situation is actually a bit awkward:

They’ve already reached a position where everyone agrees they’re excellent.

And once “excellent” becomes a consensus, the ultimate investment returns depend less on whether it’s excellent, and more on how much it can surpass the consensus…

📍 So: when a company’s excellence has become an overwhelming consensus, is it still a good enough investment?