ShengmoETH
Crypto since 2013, master in crypto mining, like technical, long term crypto investor, bull in BTC, ETH, NFTs collector.
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2023: Can be considered the explosive phase of layer2 in vertical segments (only 1 segment), too many vertical segments to meet the demand x10 x100 of the bull season while most of you still see the market is not yet bull. So the fragmented layer2 is at risk of falling into a deadlock of lack of users, lack of liquidity, lack of costs, pressure from investors. There are also many solutions such as cross-chain bridges to transfer assets, modular to separate functions, or restaking to add liquidity,... but Ethereum itself or someone else will build the so-called unified web3 world. Some parties currently add blockchain associated with AI to have a bit of a trendy flavor. Also in 2023: Bitcoin's leader rises to give birth to children who compete directly with the group of disciples with products such as BRC20, Ordinals, Runes and currently there is layer2 Bitcoin, sidechain, Fractal is also worth noting, ... the idea of restaking is also the basis for adding liquidity to the layer2 Bitcoin group.
=> This year is 2024, the precursor of wave 2025 is the year of unification of the layer2 group, layer2 AI, or the biological child group of Bitcoin.
Do you have any ideas about the upcoming competition?
=> This year is 2024, the precursor of wave 2025 is the year of unification of the layer2 group, layer2 AI, or the biological child group of Bitcoin.
Do you have any ideas about the upcoming competition?
What trend will the crypto world race in 2025?
2011: Litecoin appeared to prepare for the Bitcoin clone wave and Litecoin was the first successful clone. Bitcoin is Gold, Litecoin is Silver, in addition, there will be copper, iron, zinc, titanium, rare earth mines, etc. -> in general, the trend of miners exploded 2 years later in 2013.
2015: Ethereum appeared to prepare for the ICO wave, Ethereum can be seen as the ancestor of ICO on crypto successfully raising capital and promoting other brothers to compete to raise capital to build the so-called Ethereum killer -> the trend of layer1, the blockchain layer1 killer exploded 2 years later in 2017.
2019: Can be seen as the explosive phase of building layer2 after the Ethereum killer group did not operate effectively, even could not kill any skin of Ethereum, so brothers decided to surrender and build around Ethereum (Polygon, ARB) or clone Ethereum without having to do anything hard (BSC) -> 2021, the trend of layer2 later appeared in series and the problem is that too many layer2 will be fragmented and have poor liquidity, building a layer2 smartchain but nothing runs on it (for example, NFT boss blur built Blast specializing in NFT but it also failed). ARB and Base always attract users by using ETH so that users from Ethereum can easily access it.
2011: Litecoin appeared to prepare for the Bitcoin clone wave and Litecoin was the first successful clone. Bitcoin is Gold, Litecoin is Silver, in addition, there will be copper, iron, zinc, titanium, rare earth mines, etc. -> in general, the trend of miners exploded 2 years later in 2013.
2015: Ethereum appeared to prepare for the ICO wave, Ethereum can be seen as the ancestor of ICO on crypto successfully raising capital and promoting other brothers to compete to raise capital to build the so-called Ethereum killer -> the trend of layer1, the blockchain layer1 killer exploded 2 years later in 2017.
2019: Can be seen as the explosive phase of building layer2 after the Ethereum killer group did not operate effectively, even could not kill any skin of Ethereum, so brothers decided to surrender and build around Ethereum (Polygon, ARB) or clone Ethereum without having to do anything hard (BSC) -> 2021, the trend of layer2 later appeared in series and the problem is that too many layer2 will be fragmented and have poor liquidity, building a layer2 smartchain but nothing runs on it (for example, NFT boss blur built Blast specializing in NFT but it also failed). ARB and Base always attract users by using ETH so that users from Ethereum can easily access it.
The current market seems to be cooling down, most of those who have been there for a long time predict that this cooling down is to prepare for an upcoming period of strong fluctuations (welcoming the storm):
- Currently, it can be seen that the capital flow into Bitcoin has decreased significantly, many investors are no longer afraid of running out of Bitcoin, including the newbie ETF group that has many people chasing the peak.
- There are only a few cries from short-term investors when the price drops, but very few. Long-term investors have already found their favorite coins and even if the market shakes them, they will not release their goods, and even fill them up.
- Because long-term investors hold tight, short-term investors with weak hands hold very little goods, so the market is unlikely to decrease too much because the supply is no longer large.
- Looking at more data, it can be seen that the lending interest rate of speculative activities has also decreased, the decrease in speculation means the game is resetting to prepare for a new game.
=> This article is to note that the market is bland, sideways, trying to decrease but can't, increasing but can't, plus signs that the game is resetting to prepare for the volatile season. Hopefully it's a price increase storm, not a price decrease storm.
After the 2020 halving, the market is also lacking salt like now, the new trend is also unclear.
Then suddenly gamefi and defi exploded while before these two trends looked very stupid. It only has a little more high APR, people immediately mistake it for a super innovation, a trend of the universe, replacing outdated entertainment games and stupid banks.
- Currently, it can be seen that the capital flow into Bitcoin has decreased significantly, many investors are no longer afraid of running out of Bitcoin, including the newbie ETF group that has many people chasing the peak.
- There are only a few cries from short-term investors when the price drops, but very few. Long-term investors have already found their favorite coins and even if the market shakes them, they will not release their goods, and even fill them up.
- Because long-term investors hold tight, short-term investors with weak hands hold very little goods, so the market is unlikely to decrease too much because the supply is no longer large.
- Looking at more data, it can be seen that the lending interest rate of speculative activities has also decreased, the decrease in speculation means the game is resetting to prepare for a new game.
=> This article is to note that the market is bland, sideways, trying to decrease but can't, increasing but can't, plus signs that the game is resetting to prepare for the volatile season. Hopefully it's a price increase storm, not a price decrease storm.
After the 2020 halving, the market is also lacking salt like now, the new trend is also unclear.
Then suddenly gamefi and defi exploded while before these two trends looked very stupid. It only has a little more high APR, people immediately mistake it for a super innovation, a trend of the universe, replacing outdated entertainment games and stupid banks.
Updated Bitcoin chart on August 19
Bitcoin corrects in wave II (red) around 25k;
The shorter wave is in wave v (blue) heading near the 25k level.
Bitcoin's support is strong around the 25k area (blue area), falling below 25k Bitcoin may enter a medium-term sideways trend, otherwise it will still be in an uptrend.
The shorter wave is in wave v (blue) heading near the 25k level.
Bitcoin's support is strong around the 25k area (blue area), falling below 25k Bitcoin may enter a medium-term sideways trend, otherwise it will still be in an uptrend.
3 rules when participating in the crypto market
- If you and your friends both see the odds falling from the sky, and you depend entirely on it (all-in), it usually doesn't turn out like that. If too many people come in to airdrop, you may not get much left.
- If you depend on the betting actions of kols without having political opinions or understanding the nature. Those bet calls will often not be what you expect, because your money flow and short/long views may not be the same as the kols, not to mention the opinion that the kols will collide.
- If you depend on the betting actions of kols without having political opinions or understanding the nature. Those bet calls will often not be what you expect, because your money flow and short/long views may not be the same as the kols, not to mention the opinion that the kols will collide.
Summary of the financial market (including crypto) last week for you to evaluate future trends.
Fud not only targets crypto but also targets the entire international financial market. If you read this article, you will have a general view.
On August 25, Fed Chairman Powell will post gossip about monetary policy. Currently, there are many expectations about being more hawkish and of course causing the USD to increase in value.
- Like my previous post, capital mobilization boss Cathie Wood's article exposed the fact that the Fed may still raise interest rates or at least maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time.
On August 25, Fed Chairman Powell will post gossip about monetary policy. Currently, there are many expectations about being more hawkish and of course causing the USD to increase in value.
- Like my previous post, capital mobilization boss Cathie Wood's article exposed the fact that the Fed may still raise interest rates or at least maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time.
Some logic to evaluate when#CAKEincreases and why you can refer to:
Why do we hold cake?
– Hug#caketo stake for profit, surely many people hug cake for this reason.
– Embracing#caketo win the IFO bet, there was a period when IFO on pancakes also had a lot of xxx.
So when will $cake fly?
– When altcoins in bsc are trending again, most altcoins still pair LP on pancake, and want pancake marketing help.
– When staking#cakehas a very high APR, because there are many farming and listing products.
==> So the opportunity for#CAKEto fly again is still there, that is when the altcoin trend in BSC returns, at that time you just close your eyes and scoop $cake, it's not the season yet so you should still wait.
– Hug#caketo stake for profit, surely many people hug cake for this reason.
– Embracing#caketo win the IFO bet, there was a period when IFO on pancakes also had a lot of xxx.
So when will $cake fly?
– When altcoins in bsc are trending again, most altcoins still pair LP on pancake, and want pancake marketing help.
– When staking#cakehas a very high APR, because there are many farming and listing products.
==> So the opportunity for#CAKEto fly again is still there, that is when the altcoin trend in BSC returns, at that time you just close your eyes and scoop $cake, it's not the season yet so you should still wait.
Update BTC wave expectations in the coming days.
Wave number 2-green is a long-term wave, it is possible that this wave will correspond to some bulls:
- Sell in May -> Change it to Sell in April.
- America punches crypto for real, not pretending.
- The rising wave from the beginning of the year is currently not specific.
- Do Quan said something.
- Shanghai ETH.
- Sell BTC to prepare for mining season.
Note that this chart is not for shorting.
- Sell in May -> Change it to Sell in April.
- America punches crypto for real, not pretending.
- The rising wave from the beginning of the year is currently not specific.
- Do Quan said something.
- Shanghai ETH.
- Sell BTC to prepare for mining season.
Note that this chart is not for shorting.
The logic is that hot money flows into Gold and Bitcoin but will not come out immediately, the price will still be boosted.
A few days ago, Powell showed quite determined to control inflation, meaning he could be more aggressive in raising interest rates.
However, with the rapid departure of SVB, the reason for SVB's death, in addition to its own risk management, also arose from the management of monetary policy (changing from cheap money to too expensive money). fast).
Today it is predicted that CPI will still decrease, but the interest rate decision on March 23 is the most important thing that shows the management of monetary policy.
However, with the rapid departure of SVB, the reason for SVB's death, in addition to its own risk management, also arose from the management of monetary policy (changing from cheap money to too expensive money). fast).
Today it is predicted that CPI will still decrease, but the interest rate decision on March 23 is the most important thing that shows the management of monetary policy.
Update BTC trends and logic to confirm BTC target 28-32k
According to the previous logic, #bitcoin may have ended wave 2, entering wave 3, the long wave 3 update is on this chart, the immediate area is 28-32k to end wave 3.
However, to completely confirm this, the price should surpass the red zone, enough strength to overcome it. We will wait for developments in the US opening session today. The reason to wait is that the reduction problem lies in the US, so it depends on the reaction of this market.
However, to completely confirm this, the price should surpass the red zone, enough strength to overcome it. We will wait for developments in the US opening session today. The reason to wait is that the reduction problem lies in the US, so it depends on the reaction of this market.
Scenario for catching Bitcoin dip, logic Realized Price 19.7k
I updated the dip capture script #bitcoin yesterday, March 10.
- The upper block of the blue box is 19.8k (fibo61.8 calculated from 16.3k);
- The lower block of the blue box is 19.2k (61.8 from the bottom of 15.5k);
If it falls, from a long-term investment perspective, don't worry because BTC is not a down trend. If it falls, it will move sideways according to some adjustment pattern.
There is also an indicator that can be referenced to evaluate the annual support zone at the 19.7k area, which is the Realized Price indicator, currently at 19.7k.
- The upper block of the blue box is 19.8k (fibo61.8 calculated from 16.3k);
- The lower block of the blue box is 19.2k (61.8 from the bottom of 15.5k);
If it falls, from a long-term investment perspective, don't worry because BTC is not a down trend. If it falls, it will move sideways according to some adjustment pattern.
There is also an indicator that can be referenced to evaluate the annual support zone at the 19.7k area, which is the Realized Price indicator, currently at 19.7k.
Score some potential long-term POW coins
Some POW coins may grow in the near future (I am holding BTC, Doge, LTC, ETC (and ETHW), BCH.)
1. #Bitcoin: Applying the POW consensus mechanism, which is the focus of the crypto world. Currently, Bitcoin's circulation is about 92%, and it is expected that Bitcoin will be halved in early May 2024, which is the basis to boost Bitcoin's price.
2. #Dogecoin: Also applies POW consensus mechanism, promoted by Elon Musk, currently ranked in the top10 group. Dogecoin is mined together with Litecoin.
1. #Bitcoin: Applying the POW consensus mechanism, which is the focus of the crypto world. Currently, Bitcoin's circulation is about 92%, and it is expected that Bitcoin will be halved in early May 2024, which is the basis to boost Bitcoin's price.
2. #Dogecoin: Also applies POW consensus mechanism, promoted by Elon Musk, currently ranked in the top10 group. Dogecoin is mined together with Litecoin.
Powell hawk, refer to USDX chart
Powell still shows a hawkish attitude in operating monetary policy, which is not new. Last night's statement made the market worry that the next interest rate increase on March 23 will be large. However, we still have to look at the CPI on March 14.
Please note that Powell is still hawkish. From a basic perspective, if Powell is too hawkish and pushes the Fed fund rate up, a short time later other economies will follow suit.
Please note that Powell is still hawkish. From a basic perspective, if Powell is too hawkish and pushes the Fed fund rate up, a short time later other economies will follow suit.
Alpaca has just updated and will launch the beta version of the perp platform, which seems to be a trendy product at the present time.
This is the price chart of #Alpaca. Note that this chart is drawn a bit early. You need to confirm whether the force to break out of the box is strong or weak.
This is the price chart of #Alpaca. Note that this chart is drawn a bit early. You need to confirm whether the force to break out of the box is strong or weak.
Check out Polygonm's zkEVM, and here's MATIC's chart.
People are very interested in zkEVM as the holy grail of Ethereum scalability, and Polygon Matic is one of the leading experience systems in this space that it is about to launch soon.
Polygon zkEVM is a decentralized scaling solution using ZKP, which is an EVM compatible scaling solution.
Contract agreement
zkNode synchronizes
zk Prover
zk Bridge
There is a lot of information out there, but Polygon's zkEVM is a promising solution to improve many of Ethereum's scalability problems. This experience will make both Ethereum and Matic highly appreciated by the crypto community.
Polygon zkEVM is a decentralized scaling solution using ZKP, which is an EVM compatible scaling solution.
Contract agreement
zkNode synchronizes
zk Prover
zk Bridge
There is a lot of information out there, but Polygon's zkEVM is a promising solution to improve many of Ethereum's scalability problems. This experience will make both Ethereum and Matic highly appreciated by the crypto community.
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