A few days ago, Powell showed quite determined to control inflation, meaning he could be more aggressive in raising interest rates.
However, with the rapid departure of SVB, the reason for SVB's death, in addition to its own risk management, also arose from the management of monetary policy (changing from cheap money to too expensive money). fast).
Today it is predicted that CPI will still decrease, but the interest rate decision on March 23 is the most important thing that shows the management of monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs has bet on the possibility that the FED will not raise interest rates next time. It bet so because it thought the FED would be afraid of causing a few more SVBs to leave.
So, my strategy is as follows:
- If the FED stops raising interest rates -> the market will have complicated fluctuations, meaning the short term is exciting, the long term is uncertain.
- If the FED continues to raise interest rates a lot -> the market runs like before. The management team seems to be able to control the risks, of course from now on there must be nothing more.
- If the FED increases but less -> this is a reasonable scenario, the FED is more cautious and the market will run like before, and we need to listen to a few statements.
- If the FED pumps money (actually starts to mortgage bonds) -> depending on the scale to determine, of course the market will be excited.
=> Currently, the traditional segment focuses on gold, the crypto segment focuses on BTC. Usually the cash flow that runs like this doesn't come out immediately, but it stays there for a while. But it's still hot cash flow. -> The idea is that the price #bitcoin will not fall but gradually increase.
