老墨爱吃鱼
大家好，我是币圈8年老韭菜李威。交易没有圣杯，作为职业交易员必须修好自己的心性，形成自己的交易系统，仓位管理很重要。
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$CYBER Empty Cash Machine
$POLYX 👌🏻
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$ONT Empty
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Old Mexico has something to say
Macro
1. Yesterday was Christmas, the US stock market was closed, and there were two price fluctuations: one was that the RMB first broke 7 during trading, which will have a significant impact on foreign trade, and domestic foreign trade settlements might actually incur losses.
2. The appreciation of the RMB also affects us, as the price of USDT exchanged for RMB has been falling, meaning that holding BTC and USDT overall this year has resulted in losses.
3. The spot silver has broken through $73/ounce, setting a new historical high. The domestic futures premium rate for UBS silver has exceeded 50%, mainly because there are restrictions on institutional holdings in domestic futures, which cannot exceed 10%, leading to an increase in premiums. If these restrictions were lifted, the price might drop directly.
1. Yesterday was Christmas, the US stock market was closed, and there were two price fluctuations: one was that the RMB first broke 7 during trading, which will have a significant impact on foreign trade, and domestic foreign trade settlements might actually incur losses.
2. The appreciation of the RMB also affects us, as the price of USDT exchanged for RMB has been falling, meaning that holding BTC and USDT overall this year has resulted in losses.
3. The spot silver has broken through $73/ounce, setting a new historical high. The domestic futures premium rate for UBS silver has exceeded 50%, mainly because there are restrictions on institutional holdings in domestic futures, which cannot exceed 10%, leading to an increase in premiums. If these restrictions were lifted, the price might drop directly.
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$TRUTH searched through the final ruins for a few coins that others had not yet picked up🪙.
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Macroeconomic
1. The US stock market shortened its trading day yesterday, with a slight overall increase. The S&P 500 rose by 0.32%, reaching a record closing value increase of 0.6%, also hitting a record high closing position, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.22%.
2. The US dollar briefly fell to a nearly three-month low, fluctuating upward during the day, with a modest increase of 0.23%. The Chinese yuan has risen for three consecutive days, approaching the 7 yuan mark, and the price of USD has generally been declining over the past few days.
3. The cryptocurrency market completely missed the Christmas rally, with Bitcoin's price hovering around 87000. The recent trend has been quite sluggish, with an overall drop of 30% following the decline on October 11, and trading volume has been persistently low, not matching that of the US stock market and gold.
4. The market is not doing well, with overall momentum weakening, indicating that everyone's trading activity is declining. It remains to be seen whether this trend will persist for a long time; it may have reached a point of liquidity and trading volume exhaustion, and opportunities may soon be scarce.
Hotspot 1. The insider whale of BTC continues to hold orders, mainly taking long positions in Ethereum, as he has been increasing his position in Ethereum, currently holding 300 million in Ethereum with a floating loss of 45.03 million. He tweeted yesterday that he might have made a mistake. If he closes his position, it might present a slow buying opportunity.
2. KGST, a stablecoin from Kyrgyzstan, was listed on Binance yesterday, and the price was slightly pushed up due to buying from trading bots at the opening. Kyrgyzstan might also launch a USD stablecoin, USDKG, on the Tron network soon.
3. Binance Alpha will not be launching new projects this week; today is Christmas, and tomorrow is Friday, so this week is generally a holiday.
4. There are two speculative coins in contracts, one is Pippin, which continues to hit new highs, spiking to 0.76 yesterday before directly retracing to 0.45. The daily trading volume of the contract exceeded 1 billion USD. Many short sellers have already been educated, and the market maker controls 80% of the supply, allowing him to do as he pleases.
5. Banana also experienced a short squeeze, with a negative fee rate of -0.16% rising. Currently, these are the only coins in the entire market that can increase; the others are basically stagnant.
6. Binance launched a USD 1 annualized 20% activity yesterday, with a limit of 50,000 USD per account, potentially earning 800 USD in a month, with a possible profit after losses around 500 to 600 USD.
7. ZEC has seen a slight increase, primarily due to Messari publishing an in-depth report on ZEC, coupled with a resurgence in privacy demand.
1. The US stock market shortened its trading day yesterday, with a slight overall increase. The S&P 500 rose by 0.32%, reaching a record closing value increase of 0.6%, also hitting a record high closing position, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.22%.
2. The US dollar briefly fell to a nearly three-month low, fluctuating upward during the day, with a modest increase of 0.23%. The Chinese yuan has risen for three consecutive days, approaching the 7 yuan mark, and the price of USD has generally been declining over the past few days.
3. The cryptocurrency market completely missed the Christmas rally, with Bitcoin's price hovering around 87000. The recent trend has been quite sluggish, with an overall drop of 30% following the decline on October 11, and trading volume has been persistently low, not matching that of the US stock market and gold.
4. The market is not doing well, with overall momentum weakening, indicating that everyone's trading activity is declining. It remains to be seen whether this trend will persist for a long time; it may have reached a point of liquidity and trading volume exhaustion, and opportunities may soon be scarce.
Hotspot 1. The insider whale of BTC continues to hold orders, mainly taking long positions in Ethereum, as he has been increasing his position in Ethereum, currently holding 300 million in Ethereum with a floating loss of 45.03 million. He tweeted yesterday that he might have made a mistake. If he closes his position, it might present a slow buying opportunity.
2. KGST, a stablecoin from Kyrgyzstan, was listed on Binance yesterday, and the price was slightly pushed up due to buying from trading bots at the opening. Kyrgyzstan might also launch a USD stablecoin, USDKG, on the Tron network soon.
3. Binance Alpha will not be launching new projects this week; today is Christmas, and tomorrow is Friday, so this week is generally a holiday.
4. There are two speculative coins in contracts, one is Pippin, which continues to hit new highs, spiking to 0.76 yesterday before directly retracing to 0.45. The daily trading volume of the contract exceeded 1 billion USD. Many short sellers have already been educated, and the market maker controls 80% of the supply, allowing him to do as he pleases.
5. Banana also experienced a short squeeze, with a negative fee rate of -0.16% rising. Currently, these are the only coins in the entire market that can increase; the others are basically stagnant.
6. Binance launched a USD 1 annualized 20% activity yesterday, with a limit of 50,000 USD per account, potentially earning 800 USD in a month, with a possible profit after losses around 500 to 600 USD.
7. ZEC has seen a slight increase, primarily due to Messari publishing an in-depth report on ZEC, coupled with a resurgence in privacy demand.
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Better to miss out than to make a mistake
Do you know what the eight most ruthless and precious words in trading are? Better to miss out than to make a mistake. This is an iron rule that countless people have exchanged with real money. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is your qualification to stay at the table for the long term. If you observe carefully, you will find that out of ten people, nine eventually fall, not because their skills are too poor, but because their discipline collapses—hesitating when it’s time to cut losses and running away after making a little profit, leading to losses far greater than profits. The surface win rate may seem high, but the profit and loss ratio of the account starkly reveals the truth of making small gains and large losses. Not to mention those who impulsively go all in, dreaming of a turnaround overnight, often find themselves leaving the market in droves within days. To be honest, is trading difficult? The market itself is not complicated; what is complicated is human nature. If you can overcome your human weaknesses—fear, greed, luck, and restlessness—and extend the time frame to six months or a year, you will find yourself in a position that most people cannot reach. Some people spend ten years honing a skill, some spend ten years running a business; similarly, some spend ten years stubbornly pursuing trading, and ten years later, their realms and results are worlds apart. Too many people are eager to turn things around, eager to get rich, as if life is over if they don’t get rich tomorrow. But the old saying is profound: ten years for a fortune, what truly matters is never the initial enthusiasm at the starting line. Rather, it is the confidence and strength to reach the finish line. It's like a relationship; dining, watching movies, and walking during dates are all good, but what often touches people the most is that last phrase when parting, 'Be safe and let me know when you get home.' The last sentence can define the temperature of the entire process, and trading is exactly the same. If you have won 10 trades in a row, but then lose everything on the last one, your mindset will collapse instantly. However, if you have experienced losses earlier but manage to recover with a few successful trades at the end, you can peacefully turn off your computer and sleep. What people can remember is always the feeling of the last moment; this is the recency effect. Life is like this, and trading is even more so. True masters never rely on luck; they rely on one complete trading cycle after another. They slowly refine themselves over time. Please remember, in this protracted battle, what is contested is never who runs the fastest but who can live the longest and survive until the end.
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$BTC 12.24 Market Analysis
Tonight is Christmas Eve, wishing everyone a Merry Christmas. During these festive days, liquidity is bound to be a bit tight, and the market is also retracing. However, after Christmas, perhaps the rebound we anticipate will come. Even in a bear market cycle, the market cannot keep falling indefinitely; there will also be intermediate rallies. Everyone just needs to be more patient and reduce the erosion of principal in their operations.
Recently, there has been a noticeable buzz about prediction markets. Major platforms are preparing to launch prediction markets, and the media has also caught up with the trend, featuring specialized content on prediction markets. This is the next fiercely competitive track following the PERPs derivatives. On one hand, the market is in a narrative vacuum and urgently needs a significant track to emerge. On the other hand, there are numerous major global events next year, including the World Cup, Super Bowl, and NBA games. The biggest macro event is the midterm elections, with many gaming events worth looking forward to, so everyone can start learning in advance.
BTC Market: Yesterday, it rebounded to 90,000 and then fell back. There was no surprise with the retracement. I will wait to position some long orders in batches around 85,000 to 86,000, prioritizing Bitcoin. Let's enjoy the holiday and rest these few days while patiently waiting.
BTC Resistance Level: 88,000, Support Level: 85,000~86,000
Tonight is Christmas Eve, wishing everyone a Merry Christmas. During these festive days, liquidity is bound to be a bit tight, and the market is also retracing. However, after Christmas, perhaps the rebound we anticipate will come. Even in a bear market cycle, the market cannot keep falling indefinitely; there will also be intermediate rallies. Everyone just needs to be more patient and reduce the erosion of principal in their operations.
Recently, there has been a noticeable buzz about prediction markets. Major platforms are preparing to launch prediction markets, and the media has also caught up with the trend, featuring specialized content on prediction markets. This is the next fiercely competitive track following the PERPs derivatives. On one hand, the market is in a narrative vacuum and urgently needs a significant track to emerge. On the other hand, there are numerous major global events next year, including the World Cup, Super Bowl, and NBA games. The biggest macro event is the midterm elections, with many gaming events worth looking forward to, so everyone can start learning in advance.
BTC Market: Yesterday, it rebounded to 90,000 and then fell back. There was no surprise with the retracement. I will wait to position some long orders in batches around 85,000 to 86,000, prioritizing Bitcoin. Let's enjoy the holiday and rest these few days while patiently waiting.
BTC Resistance Level: 88,000, Support Level: 85,000~86,000
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$BTC eth sol 12.22 Market Analysis
The market is moving quite confusingly, with constant up and down spikes, indicating that market liquidity is relatively exhausted. I have previously mentioned that retail investors often lose money by betting on "reversal points." If you bet on reversals over the past month, you would likely lose around 10 times, which greatly undermines one's confidence. This is why the more you gamble, the more it becomes an obsession. Therefore, one must learn to be a hunter rather than being prey.
Currently, there is much discussion about whether there will be a Christmas rally. Looking at the trends before and after Christmas in the last cycle, there was one instance that initiated a main upward trend, two corrections, and one that was almost flat. The reason the first Christmas rally occurred was that it was still in the early stages of a bull market. When the market is in a topping structure or a downward cycle, there is no such thing as a "Christmas rally," as this is a holiday period for European and American funds, resulting in naturally thin liquidity. In 2020, the main funds in the bull market were primarily from Asia, not Europe and America.
BTC Market: Although there is a trend of bottom divergence on the daily chart, there is no significant trading volume following it, and it remains blocked by the trend line and strong resistance at 90,000. The strategy is quite simple: do not trade in between. Either wait for a pullback down to around 85,000 to attempt a long position, or wait for a breakout of the trend line and stabilize at 90,000. Sometimes, earning a little less is acceptable; maintain caution and wait for a reliable opportunity to enter the market.
BTC Resistance: 90000, Support: 87000/85000
The market is moving quite confusingly, with constant up and down spikes, indicating that market liquidity is relatively exhausted. I have previously mentioned that retail investors often lose money by betting on "reversal points." If you bet on reversals over the past month, you would likely lose around 10 times, which greatly undermines one's confidence. This is why the more you gamble, the more it becomes an obsession. Therefore, one must learn to be a hunter rather than being prey.
Currently, there is much discussion about whether there will be a Christmas rally. Looking at the trends before and after Christmas in the last cycle, there was one instance that initiated a main upward trend, two corrections, and one that was almost flat. The reason the first Christmas rally occurred was that it was still in the early stages of a bull market. When the market is in a topping structure or a downward cycle, there is no such thing as a "Christmas rally," as this is a holiday period for European and American funds, resulting in naturally thin liquidity. In 2020, the main funds in the bull market were primarily from Asia, not Europe and America.
BTC Market: Although there is a trend of bottom divergence on the daily chart, there is no significant trading volume following it, and it remains blocked by the trend line and strong resistance at 90,000. The strategy is quite simple: do not trade in between. Either wait for a pullback down to around 85,000 to attempt a long position, or wait for a breakout of the trend line and stabilize at 90,000. Sometimes, earning a little less is acceptable; maintain caution and wait for a reliable opportunity to enter the market.
BTC Resistance: 90000, Support: 87000/85000
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$LIGHT At 4:15 AM, everyone is sound asleep. 🐶 Zhuang took advantage and cleared the long positions in one go. Taking long positions in a counterfeit is risky; looking for opportunities to short is more cost-effective.
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$BTC Unordered Zhen Dan Market Buy on Dips, Sell on High 🈳.
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$ALCH btc empty
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$BLUAI Just finished, and then I watered it in a while.
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$HYPE together happy
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$COMMON Count it up
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$B2 Closed the position and left
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$STRK from small to large
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$STRK Yesterday I said to buy on dips
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$STRK Buy on dips
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Recent Hot Topics Summary
Hot topics
1. Stable KYC certification just ended yesterday, announcement made, mainnet launch coming soon.
2. ZK nation has started public IC0, this project currently seems to come for ⭕money, be cautious.
3. Infinex will raise funds on Sonar, a project similar to MegaETH; the mentioned ARC is a project of Circle, and if Circle opens deposit activities, it basically requires participation to fill cash.
4. Uni has released another positive news, launching a continuous liquidation auction protocol CCA, which means Uni has entered the token issuance market, similar to Pump.
6. DYDX and Magic Eden both announced similar protocols, DYDX will use 75% of fees for buybacks, Magic announced 30% for buybacks, but their own profit income is not much, making buybacks somewhat meaningless.
1. Stable KYC certification just ended yesterday, announcement made, mainnet launch coming soon.
2. ZK nation has started public IC0, this project currently seems to come for ⭕money, be cautious.
3. Infinex will raise funds on Sonar, a project similar to MegaETH; the mentioned ARC is a project of Circle, and if Circle opens deposit activities, it basically requires participation to fill cash.
4. Uni has released another positive news, launching a continuous liquidation auction protocol CCA, which means Uni has entered the token issuance market, similar to Pump.
6. DYDX and Magic Eden both announced similar protocols, DYDX will use 75% of fees for buybacks, Magic announced 30% for buybacks, but their own profit income is not much, making buybacks somewhat meaningless.
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