The Market Updates

Labor demand is now weaker than levels seen during the 2001 recession.

US job openings just dropped to 6.5 million, falling 386,000 in December alone, the lowest level since September 2020 while over the last 2 months, openings have collapsed by 907,000.

From the March 2022 peak, job openings are now down 5.6 million, showing how fast labor demand has cooled.

Openings are now sitting below pre pandemic levels seen in 2018–2019.

This is not a good labor market anymore. It is weakening quickly. The vacancy to unemployed ratio has fallen to 0.87. That means there are fewer than 1 job available per unemployed worker.

This ratio is now:
• Below the pre pandemic high of 1.24
• Near 2021 stress levels
• Even weaker than readings seen during the 2001 recession

Challenger layoff data confirms the same trend. US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January.

That is:
• +118% higher YOY
• +205% higher MOM
• The highest January layoff total since 2009 recession

Layoffs are no longer concentrated in one sector. They are spreading. Transportation led cuts with over 31,000 layoffs. Technology followed with 22,000.

Healthcare announced 17,000, one of the most concerning signals since healthcare was the last strong hiring pillar.

Even more worrying is that companies are not planning to replace these jobs. Hiring plans announced in January were just 5,306, the lowest January hiring total on record going back to 2009 tracking.

So companies are doing two things at once: Cutting more jobs, Planning fewer hires.

JOLTS data shows hiring rates are flat. Quit rates are stuck near 2.0%, meaning workers are not confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily. When quits fall while openings fall, it shows workers are defensive and firms are cautious.

This creates a frozen labor market. Low hiring. Low mobility. Rising layoff risk.

Putting all the data together:

• Job openings → falling sharply
• Vacancy ratio → below recession thresholds
• Layoffs → surging to post-GFC levels
• Hiring plans → record lows
• Quit rates → weak

The labor market has moved from cooling → contracting.

If this trend continues, it increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease faster.

But historically, the first phase of labor deterioration is risk off for markets. Only later does liquidity support arrive. For now, the signal is simple:

US labor market weakness is accelerating and recession risks are rising.

U.S. crypto market structure bill.

The White House wants both sides to reach compromise language by the end of Feb 2026, with stablecoin yield being the main issue blocking the bill.

The House already passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. Since then, the bill has been stuck because the Senate cannot agree on one question:

Should stablecoin holders be allowed to earn yield?

THE CORE FIGHT IS STABLECOIN YIELD

Banks see yield bearing stablecoins as a direct threat to deposits. Bank trade groups warned that up to $6.6 trillion in community bank deposits could be at risk if the yield loophole stays open.

Their logic is simple: Bank accounts pay very low interest. Crypto platforms can offer 3% or more. So money could move out of banks.

Crypto firms see a yield ban very differently. They say banning yield protects banks and hurts competition. For companies like Coinbase, stablecoins are a major business line.

They made $355M in stablecoin revenue in Q3 2025 alone, and the yearly run rate is heading above $1B. That’s why Brian Armstrong pulled support when the Senate draft tried to tighten yield rules.

The GENIUS Act already banned stablecoin issuers from paying interest. But the real fight now is this: Can exchanges and platforms still share reserve income through rewards and incentives?

Banking groups flagged this loophole back in Aug 2025, and it has now become the single biggest blocker for the full market structure bill.

Here’s where things stand legislatively:

The House passed CLARITY in July 2025.

Senate Banking released its amendment in Jan 2026, but the process stalled after yield language changed and Coinbase pushed back.

Senate Agriculture moved its version forward on Jan 29, 2026 but only along party lines.

So the Senate still does not have one unified bill. Why is the White House stepping in?

Because the Senate is divided and the bill is stuck. So the White House is trying to force a compromise by focusing only on the yield issue, locking final wording, and moving the process forward before election politics take over the calendar.

Without a yield deal, nothing moves. No committee markup. No Senate progress.

Even if it passes committee, it still needs enough votes on the Senate floor and 60 votes if debate gets blocked..The House bill is broader than the Senate versions.

So even if the Senate passes something, both chambers still need to merge texts, most likely through a conference negotiation.

Signing the bill is the easy step. Agreeing on one final version is the hard part.

This is why Feb 10 is not a routine meeting.

The White House is trying to force a deal on the single issue blocking U.S. crypto regulation.

If compromise language is ready by end February, the bill can move forward. If not, delays continue and the market remains stuck in policy uncertainty.

Truflation is showing US inflation near 0.68% while layoffs, credit defaults, and bankruptcies are all rising, yet the Fed still says the economy is strong.

If you look at the economy right now and compare it with what the Fed is saying publicly, there is a very clear disconnect building.

The Fed keeps repeating that the job market is still strong. But real data coming out from layoffs, hiring slowdowns, and wage trends is telling a different story.

We are already seeing cracks forming beneath the surface. The labor market is not collapsing overnight, but it is clearly weakening faster than what official statements suggest.

The same disconnect shows up in inflation data.

The Fed continues to say inflation is still sticky and not fully under control. But real time inflation trackers like Truflation are now showing inflation running close to 0.68%.

That level is not signaling overheating.

It is signaling that price pressures are cooling rapidly and the economy is moving closer toward disinflation and potentially deflation if the trend continues.

And deflation is a much bigger risk than inflation. Inflation slows spending but deflation stops spending. When consumers expect prices to fall, they delay purchases, businesses cut production, margins shrink, and layoffs accelerate.

That is when economic slowdowns turn into deeper recessions.

Another area flashing warning signs is credit stress. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Auto loan defaults are rising. Corporate credit stress is rising.

These are late cycle signals that usually appear when households and businesses are already struggling with higher rates.

Bankruptcies are also moving higher across sectors.

This shows that the cost of capital is starting to break weaker balance sheets. Small businesses and over-leveraged companies are feeling the pressure first but that pressure spreads if policy stays tight for too long.

So the bigger question becomes policy timing.

If inflation is already cooling…
If the labor market is already weakening…
If credit stress is already rising…

Then holding rates restrictive for too long can amplify the slowdown instead of stabilizing it.

Monetary policy works with a lag. Which means by the time the Fed reacts to confirmed weakness in lagging data, the damage is often already done.

That is the risk the market is starting to price in now. This is no longer just about inflation control.

It is about whether policy is now overtight relative to real-time economic conditions.

And if that is the case, then the next phase of the cycle will not be driven by inflation fears… It will be driven by growth fears and policy reversal expectations.

That is why the Is the Fed too late? question is starting to matter more for markets going into the next few months.