$PEPE The market value of 100 billion is just around the corner, the king of memes
The recent strong performance is the spontaneous behavior of the market
I have not seen any changes in the fundamentals and news, and I have observed
Everyone will ask why it is still rising and setting new highs
Most people are hesitating whether to chase highs or fantasize about callbacks
A few people are creating anxiety with FOMO because of vested interests
Wait a little longer, wait for ETH to set a new high and aim for $10,000
Wait a little longer, wait for new hot spots to form a sector effect
Wait a little longer, wait for the next meme coin to pick you up at a low price
"After waiting, there is waiting, a more silent waiting.
Finally, grit your teeth and wait for more waiting."

The Crypto market is always full of drama, and it’s no surprise if you have experienced violent market fluctuations caused by fake news. At the same time, the market has the ability to self-correct and return to rationality, and prices will reflect the true fundamental value. In the past few days, just watching BTC perform on the stage, altcoin shed tears silently.

Tonight, there was a callback of #BTC . The circle of friends was unusually calm. Except for media friends who forwarded news updates, no other friends responded. Maybe it was because I was a little unprepared for the sudden waterfall; maybe because I have been in the industry for many years and have experienced many ups and downs, so I am not surprised.

Don't waste every plunge, because every plunge is the best time to observe whether the currency is strong. Mature investors do not have time to invest their emotions in the market situation of panic selling, not to mention that this panic comes from an opinion report rather than actual facts.

Think about it, the worst outcome is that the Bitcoin spot ETF in January is not approved, and BTC will have a major correction to the next support level near $38,000. How? This does not prevent a violent bull market in the coming year.

In the final analysis, the macro conditions of the bull market are the Fed's interest rate cut, and Crypto and US stocks have risen together; the medium conditions are the improvement of industry infrastructure and the emergence of paradigm innovation applications; the micro conditions are the benefits of various projects. After ruling out LUNA and FTX in the past two years, the biggest risk now hanging over the industry lies in the decision-making of the US government.

Crypto is an industry driven by technology, and short-term violent fluctuations in currency prices do not affect the overall upward trend. Combining macro, meso and micro conditions, I feel that we are getting closer to the point where the bull market will explode.

I don’t want to always mention the “bull market”. Because it doesn’t matter whether it’s a bull market or a bear market. In a bull market, some people lose all their money, and in a bear market, some people make millions. The most important thing is DYOR, which requires hard work to judge the market environment, perceive market sentiment, control risks, and study the fundamentals and technical aspects of the project.

The more panic spreads, the more we need to emphasize the above common sense. I always believe that if you make money, you realize your knowledge, and if you lose money, you are willing to admit defeat. Everyone must be responsible for their own judgment.

Every time BTC plummets, it is a good opportunity to test the resilience of altcoin. The less it falls and the faster it rebounds, the stronger it is. SEI is hands down the best. I have a full position in the car and have no chance to buy at the bottom. Tonight's waterfall will not affect my confidence in the market outlook. It will be sooner or later that the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved. The endogenous technologies and products of the industry are about to reach the point of centralized explosion, and they need an out-of-circle international news to detonate everything. We just have to wait and wait for it to happen.

Judging from recent reports from the Binance Launchpad project and Binance Research, it is clear that gaming is the key word. In terms of market conditions, the rotation of sectors in the past week has focused on the public chain ecology and its DeFi sector. The NFT game sector rose slightly yesterday and then fell back.

It is worth observing that $MBOX , a combination of fundamental games + Binance ecology, follows the rise of BNB: Technically, the daily and weekly lines are at low levels, and the price is cheap, which means that the risk of chasing the increase is low; the news is a question mark, and the gap needs to be filled. Last week, DWF strategically invested in MBOX to provide it with liquidity. The implication is that there will be opportunities to pull the market in the future.

During this period, funds were like guerrillas, attacking wherever they went in order to convince people. If you happen to be in a car, you're lucky. It would be really anxious if I wasn't in the car.

After a year and a half, ICP reached $10 again, but no relevant news was seen. I believe that this round of rise is not a "flash in the pan" as Dongfang Xiaosun calls it, but a reversal of fundamentals. We need to put aside our prejudices and re-understand ICP and its ecology.
​
I took a look at the ICP-based social project OpenChat, which is similar to telegram. The difference is that OpenChat can send cryptocurrency red envelopes. Share four observations:
​
1. Someone really pledged it for 8 years. You read that right, 8 years! I was browsing YouTube yesterday and a blogger complained about someone staking ICP for 8 years. I didn’t believe it at the time. I saw the speeches of OpenChat group members today, and I believed them, for example: "I bought it for 6.8 last year and pledged it for 8 years." 100 gold dao", "I also pledged thousands of them for eight years, but I bought thousands more this year", "I pledged thousands of them for eight years. I'm not in a hurry."
​
2. Some people believe that the reasons for ICP’s current rise include (1) MORA contributed a lot and Inscription detonated the market; (2) the launch of CKETH attracted people to enter; (3) the existence of CKBTC made the largest BTC market.
​
3. Group friends continue to support, eight reasons for stud ICP, (1) Integration with BTC, ckBTC; (2) Integration with ETH, ckETH, ckUSDT, ckERC20; (3) NNS & SNS; (4) Canister smart contract; ( 5) HTTP OUTCALL; (6) Reverse GAS model; (7) INTERNET IDENTITY; (8) The seed round is about to be released.
​
4. This Friday, ICP evangelist Robert’s group chat came out, “Let’s start with the ICP currency price. First of all, when the mainnet was launched in May 21, its reasonable valuation was not that high. The reasonable price at that time The range should be between 80-200U, but due to the suppression of other public chain capitals (mainly SBF and FTX exchanges), CP was targeted to be shorted before the listing, so before the mainnet was launched, the market was still selling before the token was circulated. Shorting the futures will cause the price to rise. It is not reasonable to buy three or four hundred U when the bull market is at its peak. At that time, the mainnet was launched and all roadmap development had just begun."
​
"Then let's talk about what ICP does. ICP is mainly a full stack. The computing power and storage full stack are designed according to blockchain standards. There is no full-stack public chain in the current currency circle. ETH is not. Other DOT / NEAR / BNB/ATOM is even more different. They are all improved little by little on the basis of ETH, and then capital market marketing."
​
"The meaning of full stack can be understood as a computer room chain. ICP's node vendors have extremely high hardware requirements and require an IDC computer room like Telecom. A single node basically costs US$20,000. Therefore, the design direction of ICP has always been to build a decentralized cloud. Yes, the cloud is these computer room chains, and the communication links must comply with the decentralized and non-evil governance direction of the blockchain.”
​
“When near adopted the Night Shadow protocol and infinite sharding, it operated light nodes without memory storage and computing power. Therefore, near can achieve extremely fast speed and consensus, but it cannot complete the DAPP construction requirements of the ICP full stack.”
​
To sum up, price represents value, and currency price speaks for itself. While many projects are silent, ICP dominates the growth list. This is a signal, reminding us: Should we pay attention to ICP?
​
In addition, in the early stage of the bull market, projects with good fundamentals will chase highs or buy lows, especially in terms of technology, breaking through the box shock zone at the bottom.

ICP, the sky-death project of the year, plummeted immediately after it went online, and since May 2021, it has been consolidating wherever it goes. It has appeared on the gain list in the past two days, which is very rare.
​
When this project was first listed on the exchange, my buying price was $165. Later, the trend went wrong and I stopped losing money. Let’s look at today’s currency price of $7. For ICP, what kind of end point is worthy of this journey of displacement?
​
Recalling the past brings tears. Also in May 2021, CSPR was listed on the exchange. That night I bought 100,000 RMB coins at a cost of US$10. After the transaction was completed, I went to bed. When I woke up the next day, I looked at my account and saw that 100,000 yuan had turned into 3,000 yuan. I was confused for the whole day.
​
I deserved to lose money due to my lack of experience, and I paid for my ignorance and stupidity. When I entered the last bull market, I thought from the beginning that making money was as easy as breathing, and there were opportunities to make money everywhere. The reality is that in a bull market there are many opportunities to make money and many opportunities to lose money.
​
Being emotionally driven, operating frequently, and trusting KOLs gullibly will often end in losses. For novices, it is impossible to experience the dangers of Crypto first-hand without experiencing a few plunges. This is why some old leeks have missed the recent wave of market trends, while new leeks are rushing forward without fear.
​
In the Crypto market, the goal of making money requires both the courage to embrace new things and a reverence for cycles and logic. In some situations, courage and awe are contradictory. I must admit the limitations of personal knowledge and cannot seize all money-making opportunities. Therefore, I feel a pity that I missed this round of SOL and inscription craze, but I do not regret it. I’m really jealous of my friends who have made ten times or a hundred times their income🥺

After the cryptocurrency accounting standards and the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, the BTC market reflected clearly and rebounded by $1,000. The macro-environment is developing in a good direction, and the degree of compliance is getting higher and higher, which will bring more institutional currency holdings and national fund currency holdings, and BTC will increasingly have gold attributes.

Institutional currency holdings in the last bull market were driven by Tesla. Unexpectedly, the plot of this bull market is happening again, but the leader is the US government.

Expected events next year include the presidential election, the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, a new round of Bitcoin halving, endogenous innovation in Cryto, etc., which will help drive up the price of the currency. Next year will be a year when both stocks and currencies rise. Of course, here The stocks refer to US stocks.

The relationship between Crypto and the U.S. dollar is getting closer and closer. We don’t know whether to be sad or happy. If China had not eliminated all virtual currencies back then, but instead vigorously guided compliance, would the gap between the RMB and the U.S. dollar be narrower now? Woolen cloth?

History cannot be changed, we can only explain and predict it. China has always emphasized the real economy, which is understandable, and the rise of the virtual economy is not inconsistent with the real economy. I believe that Crypto is the most important component of the virtual economy and the easiest and fairest way to achieve global financial inclusion.

The current market can be said to be very fickle, and everyone on social media seems to be making money. Looking at my account again, am I the only one who doesn’t make much money?
​
This experience is like watching a short video. The dialogues between the characters in the short video are all expressed in units of millions, tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. In my real life, no one talks like this. The sense of divergence between online and reality brings me some thoughts.
​
Indeed, in a bull market, it is easier to make money than to lose money. All you need is courage. When you encounter a project with good fundamentals, be bold to buy, boldly buy the lows, and boldly chase the highs. Or follow the increase list to chase the increase, and you will always encounter opportunities to make money. At this stage, what we care about is not how much we earn, but whether we earn more than others. The comparison mentality is the most tortured.
​
In order to avoid being impetuous, I plan to close a batch of KOL accounts starting today, reduce the frequency of browsing X and Telegram, read more news and reports, actively search for the required information, and finally form a personal judgment. Whether I make money or lose money, I am responsible for my own judgment.
​
How to seize the opportunity?
​
1. Keep up with the dynamics of Binance, such as .
​
2. The project that is hotly discussed in the community, the most discussed project in
​
3. From a technical perspective, breaking through the consolidation box area, breaking out of a certain chip-intensive price range, and increasing volume at the bottom are all signs of an increase.
​
4. Section rotation, such as the recent inscription and public chain sections. A sector that may explode in the future is chain gaming.
​
5. Observe that after the market plummets, the currency that recovers the decline first is the strongest. The strong will always be strong and are suitable for chasing the rise. What impressed me most was that after the last bull market of 5.19, AXS was the first to rebound, and later the currency price broke through the sky.
​
6. Projects with good fundamentals and expected news in the short term are suitable for ambush.
​
What opportunities cannot be seized?
​
The currency has skyrocketed inexplicably, and there is no news to support it. I can't catch it. Although this coin is on the gainer list and I have a fear of missing out, I know that even if I could go back in time, I would not buy this coin.

Coins in the SOL and AVAX ecosystem are booming, jumping up and down the price list. I guard $BIGTIME and $MEME and never forget my original intention. This week, my personal positions opened high and moved low. I had a good day on Monday, and then went from depressed to calm in the next four days. I woke up early today, hid in bed, and wrote the following emotion.
​
I usually watch YouTube, and there are some YouTubers who are good at chasing new projects. From the bear market to the current early stage of the bull market, every time Bitcoin or other currencies skyrocket, he will remind everyone of the risks, telling everyone not to FOMO, stay rational, and the bookmaker should wave the sickle at a high level. Then list a bunch of potential downsides. I think he is very naughty. On the one hand, he is pursuing new projects and looking for opportunities to make a fortune. On the other hand, he is amplifying his pessimistic tone to prevent the audience from chasing the rise.
​
I don't understand why some people always talk about bankers and cutting leeks. In their investment philosophy, rising prices are disgraceful, and pulling prices means that the market makers are selling, so the currency should not rise. It is normal to fall or consolidate at a low level.
​
In the Crypto industry, whether it is DeFi or NFT projects, the basic principle of making money is early detection and early participation. The advantage is low cost and small gain. We should follow market sentiment and not be smart. for example:
​
When PEPE exploded in the first half of the year, I saw a YouTuber with tens of thousands of fans analyzing the PEPE project and concluded that the project only had emotions and no fundamentals. He remained rational and did not intend to buy PEPE. Unexpectedly, Binance announced the launch of PEPE soon after, and the currency price doubled in 24 hours.
​
When writing or chatting, I rarely use words such as currency speculation, currency circle, banker, and cutting leeks. First, this is a term that has been circulated since the last bull market and is often used in negative reports by Chinese media, giving outsiders a very bad impression of Crypto. In my writing, I try to avoid using these stigmatized words.
​
Second, there is actually no currency circle in China. Since the introduction of the "Further Preventing and Dealing with Speculation Risks of Virtual Currency Transactions" in the second half of 2021, the Crypto WeChat group has been disbanded, Weibo and official accounts have been banned, and everyone has migrated to Twitter and Telegram. or Discord, sector practitioners run to Singapore, Hong Kong or the United States.
​
Third, Crypto is a free and fair market. For projects with large market capitalization such as BTC and ETH, is there really a behavior of bookmakers cutting leeks?I haven't seen any solid evidence, so I don't believe there are bookmakers. In addition, this is a global market, and the costs and risks of manipulation are also extremely high. What kind of bookmaker dares to take risks?
​
At this moment, the sun shines into the window sill. This winter is unusually warm. Get up, take a shower, do housework, and the otaku's weekend has officially begun.

When I write a post recently, there are always sarcastic voices in the comment area, and there are many sarcastic people (I saw the term sarcastic people from a Taiwanese Youtuber, which means netizens who speak sarcastically). In the past, I would refer to DOTA2 anchor YYF and selectively ignore negative comments. I wanted to respond to this after get off work today.
​
1. The Crypto circle is multi-faceted. On one side is Low. As can be seen from the hype about Liangxi, Low has huge traffic. On the other side, there are also many people who have confidence in Crypto and have a positive attitude. I prefer to be with the latter. The industry is constantly developing, and I must work hard to make my knowledge worthy of the progress of the industry.
​
2. As the market conditions turned warmer, I felt inspired and wrote a lot of content related to investment psychology. The content has no practical significance and is more about self-expression.
​
3. The biggest gain this year is learning to use framework thinking, and the same is true for currency speculation. There is a book called "The Four Pillars of Investment: The Key to Building a Long-Winning Investment Portfolio". The four pillars (framework) are investment theory + investment history + investment psychology + investment industry. Theory refers to technical and fundamental analysis, history refers to what has happened in the market, psychology refers to common human laws, and industry refers to various market participants.
​
4. Continuing on, I am interested in psychology. I have read and written a lot, including "The Psychology of Money," "Financial Psychology," "The Investment Magic Book," "Narrative Economics," and "Ten Core Principles of Value Investment." It is a good book, especially "Narrative Economics", written by Robert Shiller (Nobel Prize winner in economics). The first chapter of the book studies the narrative economy of Bitcoin.
​
5. After experiencing the bear market for the past two years, I find it difficult to make money. In the last bull market, I just entered the market to speculate in contracts and woke up with a profit of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan. Making money is really as easy as breathing. Later, the "5.19 tragedy" occurred, and the position was liquidated instantly. It was too late to stop the loss because the exchange was down. Only by experiencing this kind of pain can you understand that currency speculation is not a simple matter.
​
6. In the past six months, I have become obsessed with short videos. People in these short videos talk about money in units of millions, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions. This is far from my actual life. I am a migrant worker and graduated in 2016. For a year and a half after graduation, my monthly salary did not exceed 5,000 yuan. It was only after I changed careers that my income improved.In the financial information services company where I work now, I heard that some of my colleagues are second-generation rich. They are transitioning in the company, gaining experience in stock trading, and will return to inherit the family business in the future. To this day, no one around me speaks a million words.
​
7. Whether it’s short videos or Crypto, when I see others saying they’ve made millions, I’m both envious and doubtful of their authenticity. Then I thought about it, it’s none of my business if other people make money. Instead of being envious or questioning, learn the skills. Learn technical analysis, learn to research fundamentals, learn investment psychology, and learn industry history. If you make money, you realize your knowledge. If you lose money, you are willing to admit defeat.
​
8. Regarding the KOL perspective, let me talk about my personal experience. In the past two years, I paid to join a mustard circle whose leader was a professional Crypto analyst. His analysis was logical and data-driven, but the reality was that I didn’t make any money during that half-year period. The main reason is that the market changes rapidly, and sudden good or bad news can directly reverse the market, and all previous analyzes are turned into cannon fodder. Who can predict breaking news? Therefore, you must think independently and trust your own judgment.
​
9. Since I started writing posts on Square on October 5, I wanted to write something every day, but I had no intention of chatting and flirting with girls, so I uninstalled the social software. Anyway, I hope to achieve satisfactory returns in the 2024 bull market. As the saying goes, men become confident when they have money, and women become beautiful when they have money.
​
10. Do you find it difficult to make money? Join the poll or see you in the comments section.

Today's market has become extremely sensitive and dangerous. A word from a Bitcoin developer can cause ORDI to plummet by 40%, and can also cause it to rebound to a new high. This kind of thing has never been seen in a bear market and is a typical feature of a bull market.

I was unhappy all day yesterday because my profits were retracted and my currency holdings ranked among the top three in the decline list. I was so depressed that I didn’t want to talk. When I woke up in the morning and saw the considerable rebound, I felt the desire to express myself and write down my personal thoughts.

BTC rose to US$44,000. I had the idea of ​​​​shorting, but I did not take any action. Indeed, being bearish but not shorting is tantamount to taking off your pants and farting, which is meaningless. At work yesterday, all my colleagues in the office who were stock traders but not currency traders were discussing Bitcoin. Obviously this was a sign that Bitcoin was overheating.

As we often hear, the reason why a certain tycoon was able to escape the financial crisis was because when he was enjoying a shoe shine service on the roadside, the child who shined shoes said that he had made money by stock trading. The tycoon realized that something was wrong and immediately cleared his position when he returned. , thus avoiding the crisis.

I choose not to go short for three reasons:

1. I have a small amount of personal funds, so holding low-priced spot goods is a stable happiness;

2. The contract is based on a small profit, but it is very painful. I can’t help but keep watching the market and calculating the profit or loss. My emotions change with the fluctuation of the K-line, which is not good for the health of the brain and heart;

3. Bitcoin has overheating signals, but it does not mean an immediate correction. As the first sentence of the post says, "The market has become extremely sensitive," and the market will react more strongly to bad or good news than in a bear market. The problem is, there doesn't seem to be any downside in the near term.

Damn it, before publishing the post, I took a look at the market and it fell back again😭 I wore a Binance sweatshirt to work today. I asked for the clothes from my former colleague. He got them from doing activities. He couldn’t fit into the big size. Hope there will be a good market today!

Today I woke up at around five o'clock again, turned on the market, and was confused, with a black question mark on my face. BTC is still sucking blood. I opened the circle of friends again and found that before the old leeks got on the bus (waiting for 15,000 US dollars), BTC had risen to 44,000 US dollars. Yesterday I was thinking about whether to short a small position. Fortunately, I didn't do it, otherwise my position would have been liquidated.

I think the main reason for this violent rise is the expectation of Bitcoin spot ETF, followed by Bitcoin inscription. The former has an out-of-circle effect, which will be an epic benefit after its implementation and is a milestone in the history of Bitcoin development. The latter has stimulated the community's interest in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Just looking at the price of ORDI is incredible. Inside and outside the circle, two good things resonate.

Here’s a little story: I worked the morning shift this week. I arrived at my desk before 7 o’clock yesterday and handed over to my colleague next door who works the night shift. He is responsible for editing overseas financial markets. I said, (we haven’t seen each other for many days), BTC has risen to 42,000 US dollars. He said it wasn't many days, just a weekend. I said that now everyone is speculating on expectations, and there is still room for ETH to make up for its growth. He said that he would wait until the news about spot ETFs actually comes out before entering the market.

Time did not wait for us. After only 24 hours, BTC did not pull back and rose all the way to 44,000 US dollars. At around 6 o'clock, I got ready to get up and go to work, and finally wrote down a few conclusions:

1. With BTC rising like this, it is basically certain that the Bitcoin spot ETF will pass. Because the market is dominated by institutions, institutions have information advantages.

2. When will there be a callback? I don't know either. Looking at the high position now, I feel panicked. Market confidence is constantly accumulating and there is no negative news. I think the high level is supported. In theory, a wave of correction is needed to bring about the carnival of copycats.

3. The next bull market will be crazy beyond imagination. Retail investors + institutions + state funds enter the market and resonate. The fundamentals of the encryption industry are not what they used to be. Both infrastructure and product applications are more solid than in previous years. In the next 1-2 years, there will definitely be more things in the industry that exceed the upper limit of our knowledge, so when you encounter a good project, don’t get off easily.

4. Beware of "Death of Heaven" projects, and buy projects from the four major exchanges at the same time, especially Layer 1 public chains. Either don't buy them, or wait for a sharp drop before entering the market. I have suffered losses in FLOW, ICP and CSPR, and I never want to suffer losses again.

BTC has made a slight correction. My mood is the same as that of the market, and I am finally calmer! The pullback is a healthy signal, which means that the blood-sucking phase of BTC is coming to an end, the market has sufficient confidence, and the next 1-2 months will be a carnival opportunity for Altcoin.
​
I admit, I am very impetuous. I couldn't sleep at 11 o'clock last night. I used my mobile phone to type out my plans for getting rich suddenly, such as withdrawing cash to pay off debts, writing a resignation letter, retiring in place, taking my parents to Japan in first class, and so on. I am a Leo who loves fantasy. After a good sleep, I woke up naturally at 5 a.m., picked up my phone and opened Binance to check the market.
​
My position has been switched from MEME to FTT, then to MASK in the past two days, and then to MEME again this morning. Why change positions frequently? Because I observed that the technical aspects of FTT and MASK had left the box shock zone and were unable to rise, so I sold them. Frequent operations are taboo. Fortunately, I did not lose money. My current positions are BIGTIME (OK) and MEME (Binance).
​
Combining knowledge with action, my posts in the past week have all been bullish on the GameFi and MEME sectors, as well as my personal positions. Next, I consider when to stop profit. The plan is to combine news and technical aspects. On the news side, wait for Binance to list BIGTIME spot and wait for the memeland project to announce new progress. Technically, the daily level is out of the main rising wave pattern, and it is sold when there is stagflation or large-scale pull-up.

This week, I worked from 7 to 16 o'clock in the morning shift. On the way to work, I saw BTC surpassing 40,000 US dollars. I felt an indescribable feeling in my heart😳. Why?
​
1. I believe that the current bull market is starting. The expected plot is: the SEC approves the Bitcoin spot ETF in January next year. By then, BTC will violently rise to 45,000 US dollars (a chip-intensive area), and then fall back to 20-30% after stagflation at the high level. The rebound officially started a new round of bull market. Unexpectedly, it reached $40,000 on December 4th and was approaching $42,000. It was like a home invasion and robbery, everything was caught off guard.
​
2. BTC is fierce, but I don’t hold it. In the bull market, the most anxious thing is not whether you can make money, but that others make more than you. The coins I bought did not rise much, but the coins of my friends dominated the gain list. I’m so confused, should I chase the rise? If the market pulls back in two days, won't I cry until dawn?
​
3. Excitement, nervousness and panic. To be honest, whether I am browsing Moments, X or telegram, I will blush and my heart will beat faster. It seems that the ground is full of opportunities to pick up money. I don’t want to sleep, I just want to sit in front of the computer all the time, stare at the K-line fluctuations, and check all the information about my holding projects, so as to convince myself that I can usher in a sudden rise.
​
In order to stay calm, I put on my headphones and played Taylor Swift's "Style" on a loop. My signature song is "We never go out of style" adapted from this song.
​
The bull market has arrived. With the improvement of Crypto infrastructure and the enrichment of products, I believe that this bull market will be more exciting and crazier than in previous years. How to survive a bull market smoothly? I have summarized my personal principles (below) to remind myself of them all the time.
​
1. If you make money, you realize your cognition; if you lose money, you are willing to admit defeat. Look less at KOL’s opinions and trust your own judgment more. The market is always right, but people make mistakes and have emotional impulses. I don’t believe that every operation of the person who posted the order is correct.
​
2. Reduce the frequency of operations. Shortage and short selling are the norm in life. No one can guarantee to make all the money. Crypto is an infinite game. As long as you have confidence, you will always encounter opportunities that belong to you.
​
3. A bear market depends on fundamentals, and a bull market depends on sentiment. Let go of personal biases and money will flow where emotions flow.We must take advantage of community sentiment and combine technical and fundamental factors to chase the rise, and not be exploited by personal sentiment to kill the fall.
​
4. In the bear market, some people make a lot of money, while in the bull market, some people lose everything. In fact, it doesn't matter whether it is a bear market or a bull market. The key lies in whether you can find opportunities and have the confidence to hold them. Large positions are invested in spot and small positions are traded in contracts.
​
5. Speculate the new rather than the old, and the strong will always be strong. I am very optimistic about the GameFi and MEME sectors because they are interesting, easy to understand, have low unit prices, and more importantly, they are out of the circle. DeFi has a future, but it is difficult to understand. People in the industry seem to understand it, let alone outsiders.
​
6. Keep reading Crypto-related news, papers, reports and books to improve your understanding of the market. By insisting on writing posts on Binance Square, I need to sort out the logic of investment through words, take responsibility for my own judgment, and at the same time strengthen my belief in holding currency. Once I achieve financial freedom and my confidence increases, I will start my own channel on YouTube.
​
7. I believe in basic common sense and principles, keep an open mind, and adjust principles according to the actual situation.

I was panicking because of the rise. BTC was approaching US$40,000, ORDI exceeded US$34, and TIA reached a new high.

I don’t hold any of these coins. Looking at the price increase list, I shed a tear of envy. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $133 million in positions, and there have been many short sellers recently.
​
From last night to today, I spent some time browsing the Telegram group and made a few observations:
​
1. Everyone is discussing TIA. Even in non-TIA project party groups, there are still people discussing TIA.
​
2. Coins related to Bitcoin inscriptions, such as ORDI, SATS, etc., are also under hot discussion. On the news, Binance’s official
​
3. The mood of the community can be described in one word - thousands of people, thousands of faces. Some are short, "The best time to short this month is today", "It's going to fall soon, I'm afraid of heights", "There will definitely be a correction now"; some are short, "It's so uncomfortable when the bull market is coming" "It's so uncomfortable to be short" "The pie is all gone, but my coins are still lying here"; some people called for orders, "100 is not a big problem in the sol bull market" and "Meme: 1u, let me show you".
​
Of course, there are also those from Versailles, such as "I'm more than ten times older, and you still dare to come up." When I see other people doing Versailles, I will just ignore it, because it makes me feel bad when I see other people making money.
​
Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in doubt, mature in optimism, and die in carnival. Does anyone still doubt that this is not a bull market? Refer to the image below and think about where you are now.

On the evening shift on December 1st, I was chatting with my colleagues about the topic of Moments. I said that my circle of friends is a news filter, only retaining friends who have news or useful opinions, and blocking those who post selfies, post babies, or express negative emotions.
​
I gave an example to my colleagues. In early December last year, a programmer in my circle of friends talked about ChatGPT. At that time, no one in the department group discussed this, so I sent the link to the group.
​
Since then, ChatGPT has been increasingly discussed at home and abroad. The hype of the AI ​​concept has spread from US stocks and A-shares to Crypto. AI saved the potential financial crisis caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley banks, and also led the technology trend throughout 2023.
​
A colleague next door who has experience studying in the United States said that he looked down on ChatGPT at first and felt mentally retarded, so he didn’t use it much. I was not surprised by his reaction, because I used to have such a prejudice against Crypto.
​
Whether it is spinach Dapp, avatar NFT, or chain games, the gameplay of early projects is brainless and retarded. However, this does not affect the market FOMO, the craziness is unprecedented. Personally, I missed these speculative opportunities because of my bias.
​
Prejudice makes people regress, and rationality makes people unable to make money. As my experience has grown and I look back now, I think it doesn’t matter whether the project is weak or not. What matters is whether there has been such a project in the history of the industry.
​
Any new technology, new product and new project, from 0 to 1, a milestone breakthrough, can become a hot spot that detonates the market. What about being mentally retarded? The market only cares about whether there are opportunities to make money!
​
We should abandon personal biases, follow market trends, and view changes in the Crypto industry from a development perspective. From 2017 to 2023, the progress in the fundamentals of the project can be seen with the naked eye. I believe in the power of progress. When the bull market comes, we must seize the opportunity.

On December 1, continue to track the dynamics of Bitcoin spot ETFs:

1. The SEC met with Grayscale on Thursday to discuss the potential conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. SEC officials also met with representatives from BlackRock and Nasdaq.​

2. Grayscale recently hired longtime Invesco ETF executive John Hoffman as managing director. Hoffman will serve as Grayscale’s head of distribution and strategic partnerships, suggesting the crypto asset manager is preparing to launch the fund upon approval.

3. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said, “From everything I have read publicly, I feel like we are getting closer to approval.” 10 out of 13 potential Bitcoin ETF issuers chose Coinbase Custody as their custody parties, including new entrant Pando Asset.

4. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said that the approval window for spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected to be between January 5 and 10, 2024. According to the SEC filing, the comment period ends on January 5 for Franklin/Hashdex and on January 10 for Ark/21.

5. The U.S. SEC confirmed that Cboe submitted documents for Fidelity’s Ethereum spot ETF application.

6. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said that ARK/21Shares may be in the lead in the initial stage of the spot Bitcoin ETF race by selling $130 million in GBTC to inject capital into its own spot Bitcoin ETF.​
​
The BTC market situation is just like the weather in Hangzhou. It is clearly winter, with the temperature dropping from 20℃ to 10℃, and will return to 20℃ next week. The sun shines through the glass window and even warms the sheets.
​
Last night, my colleague next door asked me if there would be a correction. He had newly registered on Binance the day before yesterday and was very interested in Crypto. I said a correction is possible. If BTC stagflates at a high level, then funds will choose the direction of least resistance. Of course, it is also possible to consolidate for a month and wait until the SEC’s decision in January next year before deciding on a direction.
​
Predicting the market will always be criticized. I think the process is more important than the result. We cannot control the result. Only by focusing on the research process can we have the best chance of obtaining a good return on investment.
​
Good process + good results = deserved success
Good process + bad result = bad luck
Bad process + good results = luck
Bad process + bad results = karma
​
We often judge previous decisions based on the results rather than the situation at the time. This is called "outcome bias." The reality is that the market changes at any time, and today's judgment may be correct today, but it may be wrong tomorrow.
​
I wrote in yesterday's 帖子, "Making money means realizing your knowledge, losing money means you are willing to admit defeat." Write it again today to motivate yourself. No matter whether your opinion is offensive or not, you must express it bravely.

The more details about the Bitcoin spot ETF, the closer it is to the expected implementation, which is a positive sign. Staying optimistic about the market outlook, BTC is expected to reach $45,000.
​
1. U.S. SEC Chairman: Will not "prejudge" whether the spot Bitcoin ETF application will be approved.
2. Swiss asset management company Pando Asset has submitted Form S-1 to the U.S. SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF application.
3. The U.S. SEC has met with Hashdex regarding the spot Bitcoin ETF.
4. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that BlackRock will meet with the U.S. SEC again to demonstrate the "revised" physical model design of the spot Bitcoin ETF.
5. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said that the hype of Bitcoin spot ETF has pushed the total assets of ProShares’ BITO (Bitcoin Futures ETF) to a record high, close to $1.5 billion.
​
Everyone is waiting for January 2024 to arrive, but actually, this idea is wrong. The SEC’s decision on whether to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF could come to fruition any day between today and January next year.
​
This week’s altcoins have collectively misfired, and funds are calm and hesitant during the correction period. The fundamentals of the GameFi project are improving, and the progress of cooperation officially announced by each project can be seen with the naked eye.
​
I believe that in the upcoming bull market, the GameFi and MEME sectors will burst out with even crazier energy than the previous bull market. The prerequisite for an outbreak, in addition to fundamental progress, also requires news hype with world influence, which is essentially getting out of the circle. The principle of currency selection is to speculate on the new rather than the old + the strong will always be strong.
​
With the rising market sentiment, many KOLs and bloggers are predicting ten times or one hundred times the currency in 2024 on platforms such as X and YouTube recently.

When I clicked on the post or video, I was a little surprised. I didn’t expect that the coins recommended by these people were all old DeFi or Layer2. Although the prices of these old coins are cheap, you can definitely make money by buying them, but the potential for speculation is limited, and most of them follow the market's rise. I don't think they can rise hundreds of times.
​
Bear markets look at fundamentals, bull markets look at community sentiment. Any project with innovative gameplay, whether it is GameFi, X to earn, or MEME memes, or other concepts that have not yet appeared, the market will definitely be FOMO and crazy hype. As for what these projects are, I don’t know, so I’ll take it step by step.
​
Do your own research and trust your own judgment. If you make money, you will realize your knowledge. If you lose, you will admit defeat. I basically don’t look at other people’s predictions and currency recommendations. The industry is ever-changing and no one can accurately predict the market.
​
You know, "BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF" was news that directly reversed the market, and no one could predict it. If there was no news a few months ago and liquidity dried up, BTC today might still be around $20,000. However, there is no such thing as reality.
​
In short, take it one step at a time, give up your illusions, live in the present, and follow the market trend. Crypto is an infinite game, with many opportunities to make money and many possibilities to lose money. Excluding the interference of KOL, DYOR.

BTC returned to $38,000, with repeated highs and sideways jumps, which is a characteristic of the recent market fluctuations. At the same time, altcoins that were popular last week generally experienced a correction this week. A healthy pullback to prepare for a violent rise in the future.
​
The market remains optimistic about the market outlook, and many news are releasing positive signals, such as:
1. The U.S. SEC seeks public feedback on Franklin Templeton and Hashdex Bitcoin spot ETFs.
2. Franklin Templeton updates its spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus to SEC.
3. People familiar with the matter: Coinbase is working with the CFTC to determine the scope of transaction data sharing.
4. A U.S. judge approves a $1.65 billion settlement agreement between Voyager Digital and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
5. The U.S. dollar index DXY fell below 103 for the first time since the end of August.
​
In the past, regulatory uncertainty in the United States was the biggest potential negative. Now that the regulatory results have been implemented, the negative effects caused by the uncertainty have also been resolved.

What are the benefits of regulatory certainty? The first is to reduce financing obstacles in the Crypto industry, the second is to promote more innovative Crypto businesses to enter the market, and the third is to reduce the time and cost for innovative businesses to enter the market.
​
Crypto innovation is bottom-up and regulation is top-down. We are currently at the most critical point in the history of Crypto when it comes to balancing innovation and regulation. We will be honored to witness this iconic event take place.