懂币猫

#美股 #BTC

In the last two months, I’ve barely made any gains from crypto contracts
But I'm still sitting at the top of the annual profit leaderboard
What does that indicate?

It’s pretty straightforward; it shows that making money in crypto is tough right now
Other crypto traders aren’t raking it in either, or else I wouldn't still be in first place

For half a year, I've been urging everyone in my streams to trade U.S. stocks
I spend almost half of each stream discussing U.S. stocks, gold, and silver
When I first started streaming, I even shared my returns from U.S. stocks, and they were on par with my crypto performance

Through my streams and trading teachings, I’ve always hoped everyone could earn more and walk the right trading path with solid trading principles. Recently, I’ve noticed there are hardly any discussions about U.S. stocks in the plaza; such a great market is getting little attention, and it honestly feels disheartening

As traders, when the conditions are right, we must avoid being dogmatic and be more adaptable
I often say that traders should be like water: flexible and variable, not like an old pigeon
At the same time, we need to learn to allocate our funds wisely, pursuing the easier profits in more active markets

Here's how I allocate my positions and time:
Crypto 40%
U.S. Stocks 40%
A-shares 5%
Gold 5%
Some treasure fund 4% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Wealth management 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Others 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)

Now, all major platforms have U.S. stock contracts available, just fire up your exchange app
Head into the contract section
In the dropdown menu, find #TradFi , which is filled with recently popular U.S. stock contracts

Brothers, explore more and don’t let yourselves get trapped in an information cocoon

Back on top of the annual leaderboard

#BTC #ETH #sol

Every bull market’s first week begins with a savage surge, leaving most people unable to get on board. This is how it was in 2023, and it was the same in 2019.

Compared with previous times bull markets were kicked off, after a major weekly-level rally, there has always been a long period—lasting a month or two—of chaotic, disorderly consolidation. In such times, only a small number of low-cap altcoins and on-chain hotspots have a chance. And precisely during these one or two months of chaotic consolidation, many people can’t hold on; their low-price holdings get shaken out. This is the brutal story that happens in every bull market. If only I’d held back then...

Looking back at each cycle of bull-market conditions: over the course of as long as three years, every upward move has been traceable. Rally—consolidate and shake out positions—then rise again. We are currently in the consolidation and position-shaking phase. At this point, wait patiently for the opportunity for the next upswing.

For now, I don’t plan to move my core holdings. Why is it that we always want to trade the range? Because we’re too greedy—we always want to sell high and buy low, right?

#BTC #ETH #SOL

This 30% surge has already been fully realized. This year’s fourth doubling rally is also already done. The market moved faster than I expected. There are a lot of people out there who missed the move.

Here, Bitcoin’s shorter-term cycles are starting to enter a period of consolidation. It definitely isn’t a good opportunity to “roll over” positions. My core holdings won’t move for now. I’ll keep holding, and I don’t plan to go short. Even if there’s an excellent shorting opportunity, strategically I’ll still stick with the approach I’ve used over the past few months—looking for chances to go long.

The market develops in stages, and trading happens in waves. Protect your profits; when there are fewer opportunities to make money, participate with a smaller position size. When Bitcoin is in a strong sideways range, altcoins often have opportunities. Pay more attention to large-cap altcoins with high market rankings and popular “hot dog” tokens.

What considerations are there when setting a cost line after you’re in profit?

It comes down to how much drawdown you’re willing to take—that’s your subjective choice when selecting the market’s size.

The reason you urgently raise the stop-loss line is because you’re afraid the profits you’ve already got will fly away. But after you change the stop-loss line, the drawdown you assume becomes smaller—your ability to stay in the trade and catch the move also decreases. In a big market move, it’s easy to get shaken out by small fluctuations.

Therefore, there’s really no such thing as the “best” way to take profit or set a stop-loss. It all depends on your choices—on what you want. If you want to secure this profit first, then you set it at break-even. That’s a method that effectively reduces the trading scale.

If you want not to be knocked out frequently during a ranging market, then you don’t set it that way. Then you have a higher chance of holding the position—especially in an epic-level bull market. But in exchange, it means you often can’t make much money from smaller market moves.

In trading, there must always be trade-offs—there’s no “wanting both.” You can’t simultaneously keep drawdown low and seek high, explosive returns. In a fully priced financial market, that’s almost impossible.

The best psychologist in the world is just a wealthy version of yourself

#BTC

The bull market is here. Now more people need to think: if Bitcoin rises 5x over the next three years, where is the main rally—and where will the pullbacks be?

Bitcoin’s weekly chart surged 23.69% last week. It’s a very strong and full-bodied bullish candlestick pattern. Every bull market has started rising amid doubt—so it was in 2020, in 2023, and it will be the same in 2026.

In a bull market, the strategic choice is to look for opportunities to enter long, not to keep thinking about shorting and betting on a pullback. That’s not the same as “joining the National Army in 1949,” is it?

Will there be a pullback? Of course there will. But switching to a short mindset at this time is about using a small loss to welcome the big gains over the following years. A stop-loss is like the cost of doing business: to make big money, you must pay a cost—whether that cost is money or your health.

Trading rules have always been very simple:
In a bull market, go long on dips.
In a bear market, go short on rallies.

#BTC #纳指

Back in July, during a live stream where I discussed converting Bitcoin and the Nasdaq exchange rate, I shared a chart: it’s a long-term comparison chart of the BTCUSD/NAS100 exchange rate.

1.
At the time, BTCUSD/NAS100 was around 2, and now it’s around 3.
In the previous Bitcoin cycle, the exchange rate dropped by 72%.
At the start of July, in this bear-market cycle, Bitcoin had already fallen 65% relative to the Nasdaq.

2.
This chart is very interesting. Anyone familiar with Bitcoin cycles can clearly see that the 4-year cycle is still working.
From 2021 to 2025, the exchange rate’s peak has stayed around 5.
In the most recent bull run, the exchange-rate high didn’t break upward by much.
Also, the drop in the exchange rate in each Bitcoin cycle has been diminishing, and volatility has been getting lower.

3.
Based on the above signs, I concluded that
in July and August, the exchange rate would start rebounding.
The probability of Bitcoin putting in a bottom would increase significantly.
There would be a fairly smooth uptrend.
Bitcoin already showed signs of a bottom reversal, so I increased my regular investing (DCA) and actively tried to go long Bitcoin from the bottom.

Now looking back, all the judgments I made at the time came true.
If you don’t understand the capital flows across different markets, or all the complicated institutional data, you can simply look at this Bitcoin exchange-rate chart, and you’ll basically understand where Bitcoin and the Nasdaq are right now.

Understand-Coin Cat community automatically returns 20%: invite code: CATBTC88

#BTC #ETH #sol

Bitcoin has broken 80,000
This is the fourth chance of the year—an opportunity to 10x; opportunities for dozens of times have already come true

Bitcoin up 30%
Ethereum up 33%
Solana up 31%

When the livestream first started, many friends said the capital was small, so you can’t make big moves—you can only gamble, use high leverage, and go all-in to bet on low-cap coins. But none of those bets turned out. Trading really is “gambling,” but you need “gambler’s skill.” This time, before Bitcoin kicked off, a huge amount of time and effort was spent promoting and building the community for friends. Now that we’re already sitting on massive profits, it’s time to start thinking about slowly taking profits and locking in gains bit by bit

There’s likely to be a fifth chance this year to grow small capital. Friends who missed the move—don’t be anxious. Stay patient and wait. Good opportunities are always waited for.

#BTC

Lying down and doing nothing, waiting for the money to come.

#BTC #ETH

Back to being number one on the yearly leaderboard

This time it’s really not easy. This live-trading account is specifically for crypto—almost all Bitcoin, with occasional Ethereum, altcoins, and US stocks.

Since Bitcoin fell to 60,000 in February this year, after going flat, strategically I’ve always chosen to go long on Bitcoin. Along the way there were a few opportunities to short, but I consistently abandoned them on principle. It’s a pity, but if I had made money by shorting from this position, I think I’d feel even worse. I don’t think this should be money I earn—it feels too hot to hold.

In the past few months, I’ve kept going long and it’s caused severe wear. My win rate even dropped to over 20%, and my total drawdown quickly approached the safety line I set for myself—20%. If it reaches that drawdown, I will force myself into a contract cooldown period. This is a “trade death rule” I set for myself long ago.

Many friends say Bitcoin will drop to 40,000 or even 30,000. There’s only one last drop left before it hits the bottom. The bottom will definitely form by the end of the year. Looking around the market, the opinions are shockingly unanimous! That makes me extremely alert. 18/11/14, 20/3/12, 21/5/19, last year 10/11—every time I managed to dodge it, but almost every time the market’s expectations produced the exact opposite result. Trading is about making money from uncertainty. When an event has extremely high certainty across the entire market, it also means there’s basically no profit to be had.

Also, I think for ordinary people, don’t care too much about what others think or see. No matter how much others earn, for you it’s just a moon reflected in water and a flower in a mirror. When trading, whether you go long or short—once the direction is determined, it’s best to only do one direction. Avoid fighting between your left and right brains. In a bull market, find ways to go long at every pullback entry point. In a bear market, short at the highs of every rebound.

This time I don’t even know how high it will go. I only know I was right. I’m just lucky. If I have any advantages, I think my biggest one is that I can “hang in there” and survive—I can control drawdown, I know the boundaries of my abilities, I only make money within my knowledge. And I stick to my trading system: range-bound action and consecutive losing trades are good things. They validate my loyalty to my beliefs and separate me from everyone else.

#BTC #ETH

This short-cycle rolling-over market trend for Bitcoin and Ethereum has come to an end

Now entering a period of consolidation

#BTC

Another single trade A8, already 20 million

Thanks to the fuel from the shorts