David-1

David's Trading Notes

$ETH
October 6, 2026

I. Ethereum

The market is still mostly range-bound today. It’s been trading sideways in a range for nearly two weeks.

1. Intraday price is still fluctuating between 2636 and 2730. Don’t trade except at key levels. If you’re an M and want to trade recklessly, then pretend I never said that.
2. Long: watch 2690–2695; go long only after a bullish engulfing candle. Go long at 2666 if a bullish candle forms.

3. Short: keep an eye on 2742; go short if a bearish engulfing candle forms on the five-minute chart.

4. Once price breaks out, you can aggressively follow the move on a retest of either boundary. (Chart 2)

5. For a long-term long: watch 2581 and enter; place a limit order to enter on the left side at 2530, with a 1% stop loss. This is a long-term position, not an intraday trade. (Chart 3)
8. No signal, no trade.

II. U.S. stocks

Remarkable: U.S. stocks and Treasury bonds have both hit new highs. Will Treasury yields break above 6, or stay elevated and move sideways? I don’t know—we can only watch and wait. I see this as both a risk and an opportunity.

III. The psychology of trading

Two weeks of sideways movement can easily eat away at the profits made earlier. Stay patient and sit tight; don’t budge. Wait for a signal before getting back in. Don’t chase before a breakout, and don’t hesitate once the breakout happens.

#币安推出BinanceIntelligence
#Drift黑客受害者启动索赔

Why is the crypto primary market dying so fast? We were once one of the most active investment firms, and over the past decade, we’ve seen the problems become increasingly clear. First, the narratives have collapsed: from white papers and institutional endorsements to inflated TVL, the market basically no longer buys it. Second, supply is out of balance. There are now tens of thousands of projects, making it extremely difficult for excellent ones to stand out. Third, the 1➕3 vesting mechanism is essentially designed to kill VCs, letting projects, market makers, and exchanges exit first. Fourth, there’s the cost of getting listed. Why do primary-market projects now need high valuations and large funding rounds? Mainly because listing on several leading exchanges costs an average of tens of millions of dollars. VCs have plenty of problems too, but without substantial VC support for the primary market, all that’s left is active token-launching syndicates and MEME coins. The primary market is a vital source of crypto innovation, and industry leaders need to genuinely focus on building. For example, Binance should improve its listing criteria; under its current model, even Vitalik’s ETH wouldn’t have been listed on Binance back then. Next, the 1➕3 vesting mechanism should be abolished altogether. VCs take on the greatest risk and shouldn’t be saddled with the worst vesting terms. Whether a project succeeds or fails is fundamentally not up to VCs. Finally, crypto projects need to return to generating real revenue and buying back tokens. The most important factors behind the U.S. stock market’s sustained prosperity over so many years have been earnings growth and a commitment to returning value to shareholders. That’s what industry leaders should be doing, so that secondary-market investors can find genuinely high-quality projects.

I grew up in Shenzhen.

Hot dry noodles, zhajiangmian, rapeseed oil, stir-fried dishes drenched in oil, and chili peppers.

The brain fog never went away. I felt chronically inflamed, weak, and exhausted.

No discipline. No ambition. No sense of control over my own life.

Then I discovered the “Thin Muscle” diet—and it gave me a new life.

$ETH David's Trading Notes

October 5, 2026
#ETH

I. ETH

Intraday: Focus mainly on buying dips, with selling rallies as a secondary strategy.

1. If price retests the 2690–95 range, go long when a signal appears. Unless a large bearish candle breaks through the range, go long when price touches it.

2. There are two levels to watch for shorts: at 2742, a bearish candle could offer a chance for a quick short; at the 2826 resistance zone, wait for an opportunity to short again. If the bulls push price up to 2826, wait for a signal before trading—don't provide early liquidity.

II. Macro catalysts and volatility

The bulls are somewhat stronger at the moment. It’s quite fitting that just as the market starts to see volatility fall, or has been range-bound for a while, bullish news comes along. Maybe the whole world really is just a ramshackle operation. Volatility has come down now. Be patient, be patient, be patient—important things are worth repeating three times.

III. My view

Here's a spooky story: whenever market volatility keeps dipping, the real ride is about to take off. Everyone stay safe 😎 “The big one is coming.”

The crypto market has been bearish since October 2025 for half a year; although Bitcoin has only fallen by a bit over 50%, 99% of altcoins have been in such a sorry state that it's hard to watch—many are even worse than in previous bear markets.

Now

Things are looking better

A bull market is here

And the most efficient way to make money in a bull market is to trade seriously

So, based on all of the above, it can be concluded: at a time like this, putting your energy anywhere other than trading is disrespectful to the bull market, disrespectful to opportunities, and disrespectful to yourself for having endured the bear market.

Messing around, wasting emotions—what’s the point? #Zcash现货ETF首现周度净流出9360万美元

What your fortune is like after National Day, belike:

People in the comment section saying “Take it 💸”
#ETH

🚨 Nonfarm payroll released
This 2.9w number is extremely favorable—everything is so good the market is going to panic

Wow, director is awesome. All the talkers today, come and show off for me. Historical data revised downward, and the rate-hike probability is dropping again

The non-farm payrolls report is landing tonight, and what’s really worth watching may not be the jobs data itself, but whether it can keep pushing down expectations for a rate hike in October.

Right now, the market has already priced in about a 23% chance of an October hike. A few days ago it was still around 70%, so expectations have clearly eased.

So if this NFP report only keeps the probability around 20%, or even if the data comes out and pushes it back up again, risk assets may very likely lose momentum.

What I’m hoping for more is this scenario:
NFP deals another blow, pushing the odds of a rate hike down to around 10%.

That would create another stretch of expectation vacuum in the market, allowing risk assets to keep climbing for a few more days, and maybe even carry this week’s rally through.

As for the later rebound in rate-hike expectations, there’s really no need to worry. What truly needs to be avoided is the market just beginning to relax, only for the NFP release to immediately yank those expectations back up.

The data is only the surface. The real game tonight is how pricing moves.
#非农就业数据

David’s Trading Notes

October 2, 2026
$ETH

Tonight is the Non-Farm Payrolls. After a week of moving sideways, we’re waiting for this to trigger the move. The market has already broken out of the range; if the pullback to 2720 does not hold, then there will be room to move.

1. Two key levels: 2771 and 2826. A signal shows up with 5-minute probe spikes; you can use that for short positions.
2. As mentioned in earlier posts: the trend has already formed, and it will continue. Hold your positions, David’s troops!!

Before the data is released, make sure your existing trades have breakeven stop-losses. Hold the lower-position trades first; intraday, only trade based on the signals at these two short levels. The data night is most likely to reveal the direction early. We’ve waited through a week of sideways action—don’t go all-in on shorts just because a release is coming. Only take signals at 2771 and 2826; once you’ve traded, exit. Don’t go head-to-head against trend positions.
#比特币升至8.5万美元附近
#以太坊三季度涨70.9%

Today, BTC’s rise is closely related to the new SEC custody rules.

The CLARITY Act didn’t pass, and the crypto-market-structure bill in Congress is still being held up. But the U.S. hasn’t stopped pushing forward with crypto development—it’s still doing its best to address the issue of getting large funds and institutions to enter.

For institutions to allocate to BTC, the key prerequisite is that assets can be held in compliant custody. Previously, custody came with certain thresholds. Now, if you can’t find a suitable custodian and the conditions are met, institutions and funds can self-custody. Also, state-chartered trust companies that meet the requirements can become custodians for crypto assets.

There are more custody pathways now, and the rules are clearer as well. So the friction for $BTC to enter funds, institutions, and regulated accounts should decrease. That’s certainly positive for Bitcoin’s own holdings.

Moreover, when BTC pulled back a few days ago, part of the contract positions had already been cleared, and open interest has clearly dropped. Some of the leveraged chasing-the-rally has exited, and overall market positioning isn’t that heavy right now.

On top of that, after the PCE came in below expectations, market concerns about further rate hikes decreased. Citi also raised its BTC target price, making it easier for the price to move higher.

Of course, there’s also the Non-Farm Payrolls data today, which could affect the market. But it’s already pretty clear to see that although Trump hasn’t done much in terms of personnel appointments, the SEC and CFTC leadership he appointed really can still move crypto forward for a stretch.
#SEC拟放宽投顾加密托管规则

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Victoria Harbour—Wishing everyone a Happy National Day🎉

Fireworks🎆—From the view of the Kimpton Suite

The taste of money💸

Happy to see that the bosses who see this post will get rich

October 1, 2026

Last night, the PCE definition was revised, and the result was quite good. BTC, Ethereum, and gold all surged immediately, and the probability of further rate hikes was once again pushed down

Hold on to spot and low-entry orders! Hold on! Hold on!

$BTC
The price is still consolidating within a range. Only do trades on reversals at the upper and lower edges; don’t touch anything in the middle. Patience is what matters—who can wait longer, and who is less likely to end up “stepping in shit.”

Macro fundamentals assessment:
On Friday—i.e., tomorrow night’s “big nonfarm”—I expect the data to be positive, further reducing the rate-hike odds;

Even if there’s a pullback, the part that should rise still hasn’t finished rising. The trend has formed—it won’t flip on you as easily as a woman’s mood

3. Psychological game of give-and-take

When news drives prices up, it’s easiest to chase. Keep holding spot and low-position orders. During the day, still wait at the upper and lower ends of the range; don’t fill your positions completely before Friday’s data.
#股票财报季

Sometimes the weaker side can make the stronger side’s head hurt—not because the weaker side has already grown stronger, but because the stronger side hasn’t yet treated this matter as something that must be settled.

But! This kind of bargain has an expiration date!

While the other side is still keeping score, still measuring things carefully, and hasn’t decided to respond at the scale of a full-on major battle, you can buy yourself a bit of breathing room. But once you treat this “cheap advantage” as everyday fare and have it brought back to the table again and again, the other side will change the algorithm: no longer calling it harassment, but provocation.

When it gets to that point, your unconventional means stop being a lever and become an exposed trump card—on the table.

The trouble for Iran is right here: agents, missiles, and regional troublemakers. What was originally at most a tool for delay and pressure has been turned into capital for a long-term standoff with the United States. Take a little advantage and then add to the bet—read the other side’s restraint as your own weight. You overestimate how long you can hold out, and you underestimate how much the other side will change once they take it seriously.

Turning a one-time cheap deal into a long-term posture will, in the end, not be paid for by the mover—it will be paid for by the onlookers who got pulled into it.#IranUS

After Williams’ remarks, the CME’s probability for the Fed to raise rates in October has dropped to 47%.

Don’t rush to assume risk assets will take off just because oil prices have fallen.

Now the market is being quite realistic:
You can look at positive news first, but the money won’t immediately re-bet just because of a single day’s change.

There have been too many swings in macro expectations ahead of this.
What investors care about now is—whether this is really a turning point, not just another brief fluctuation.

If oil prices continue to fall, the $90 area is decisively broken and held there, and the subsequent data do not push inflation expectations back up again, then it will be different.

That would mean the line the market is worried about is starting to loosen.

Only then might these “seemingly ineffective” positive developments from today slowly begin to show up in prices.

As for the stock market and the crypto market, their current positions, valuations, and capital structures are different.
So even if the macro logic is the same, the final performance will definitely be different #股票财报季

David's Trading Notes

September 30, 2026

Yesterday, when 2718 broke through, I went long. The target was 2750—just one point short, it hit 2749, and then it dropped and swept to breakeven. The experience of holding the position can be summed up in one word: “Awesome.” So awesome.

Today’s intraday plan: mainly range trading, with trades at the higher end as a secondary focus.

1. I’m still within the 2636–2718 box-ranging zone. I only do reversals at the upper and lower ends; I don’t take trades in the middle.

2. The trading experience when you act in the middle is no different from eating dirt: if the stop loss is small, it gets swept out; if the stop loss is large, it only runs a short way and still gets swept out.

“Knowing and doing in unity” is simple, but doing it is hard. When things get difficult, maybe taking a break to play some games and relax is also a good choice 👍🏻$ETH #股票财报季

David's Trading Notes

$ETH September 29, 2026

I. Intraday Plan

Today intraday: mainly ranging/sideways, with reversals as secondary

1. For Figure 1, in the purple area (the ranging box). Only when reversal signals appear at the upper and lower edges of the smaller timeframe do you go long or short.
2. At the two edges: 2718 and 2638 on the smaller timeframe provide signals—then do the reversal.
3. If you want to chase a long: watch for a breakout above 2718, then enter long only after a pullback that holds (doesn't break). Target: 2750.
4. 2750 is a pressure wall with very thick stacked liquidity. You must first eat through this supply; only then can the bulls really ignite.

Wait for the signal! Wait for the signal! Wait for the signal!
In the ranging zone, if you don't wait for the signal, are you M?

II. View

During the adjustment phase, sideways movement indicates strength. Be patient and wait for opportunities at key levels. The data on Wednesday and Friday will become the fuel that ignites the market.

What ranging fears most is chasing in the middle of the mountain. Either wait for the edges, or wait for 2718 to pull back and hold. If it hasn’t reached the edge and hasn’t given the reversal signal, then be patient and wait for the key level.
#黄金跌至4144美元
#eth

$ETH People say the crypto market is all about cycles—“one cycle every four years.” But I’m increasingly feeling that this one really is different.

What’s different isn’t the pattern, but the rhythm of time and space has changed.

Historically, whether it’s the transition from a bear to a bull market, or a major-level rebound within a bear market, when ETH enters a deep correction from its high, the decline often reaches around 80%.

Remember this number.

Now look at this round:

In terms of space, the correction hasn’t fully played out yet. If we estimate it using the historical 80% retracement level, ETH’s corresponding position should be around 2430.

That’s what I mean by “different.”

Looking at the time * space* dimension of this correction: in the past, corrections of this scale often lasted a long time. But this time, the correction cycle is being shortened again and again.

Now look at the chart:

1. The major-level correction has already played out. Now we’re entering the most grinding “tail-end行情” — not necessarily the steepest decline, but usually the most torturous: repeated tug-of-war, repeated shakeouts.

2. The position where the correction has retraced 80% is roughly around 2430. Unless there’s a macro-level black swan event, this is likely to serve as the end point of the correction.

Cycles haven’t disappeared. It’s just that this time, the timing and magnitude of the cycle may be getting repriced.

David’s Trading Notes

$ETH September 28, 2026

During the Mid-Autumn Festival period, this pushed through to the final defensive line of the shorts at 2742, but it failed to break through and carry on—so adjustments are here.

I. Short-term

Today intraday: mainly focus on shorting at higher levels, with long positions as a secondary.
1. Rebound into the 2660–2667 zone; when a five-minute candle forms a bearish engulfing (yin within yang), then short again.

2. If the 2660–2667 zone is not broken, don’t look for a bullish reversal. If it does break through, I’ll update in real time 👗.

3. Below, major-level support: 2582 and 2564—shorts are likely to see a reversal around here. Enter long again after a five-minute bullish engulfing (yang covering yin). If you place orders, use a 1% stop loss.

4. Adjustments have arrived; don’t chase or place long positions recklessly without reaching the key levels. There are too many bear traps and fake signals.

II. Scenario Planning

2742 is the watershed level from the previous phase. After the breakout failed, the main storyline is the adjustment. Above 2500 is the adjustment area I consider more favorable. Once it reaches 2500, consider adding positions (medium/long-term) and holding. In this bull market cycle, the big target of 6000–7000 is something that’s quite visible #Bitwise提交NEAR现货ETF最终招股书 #eth

Seeing a picture, hahaha, I have to say, Big A is still unbeatable. We’ve been professionally trained; normally we wouldn’t laugh…#BigA