David-1

周末的加密玩家：

每次嘴上说着长期持有

手却每隔五分钟就打开一次行情📈

囤的币动一下
心跳就跟着动一下🦭

I feel like a lot of people around me are hoping to see a repeat of the early-2023 bull market, but I don’t think there’s much chance we’ll break below that 75,000 support level. Here’s what caused things to play out that way in 2023:
- March 3: Silvergate Bank, which had many crypto clients, began winding down, and Coinbase started cutting ties with it;
- March 7: In testimony to Congress, Powell said inflation was still stubborn and interest rates might need to go higher and stay there for longer;
- March 8: Silicon Valley Bank faced a bank run, then regulators took it over, making it one of the largest US bank failures since 2008;
- March 10: Circle disclosed that it had about $3.3 billion deposited at SVB, and the USDC depeg worsened, with USDC briefly falling to around $0.87;
- March 11: Another crypto-related bank, Signature Bank, was also shut down by regulators;

I’m not saying another black swan event like this is completely impossible—just that the odds are very low..... My current view is that if last night wasn’t the bottom, then we’ll probably dip to around 78,000–79,000 sometime in the next day or two.

I think what’s more worth looking back on is how, early in the last bull market, BTC bounced back after a pullback and then surged 45% in just two weeks, despite all those black swan events—from rate-hike fears to major blowups.

Early bull markets always surge amid FUD. Treasure the chance to build a position at these low levels, and don’t get shaken out by a little volatility early in the bull market. #比特币反弹至8.3万美元

David’s Trading Notes

October 9, 2026
#比特币跌破8.1万美元
#IMF称代币化市场仍小且碎片化
1. Technical Analysis

Yesterday’s correction played out. I think this move looks a lot like the previous bottom at 50k: several layers of macro headwinds piled up, yet the price didn’t fall much.

Structurally, I think Bitcoin’s correction this time has been fairly thorough. It dipped to around 80k and quickly reclaimed the range.

(Chart 1) Two possible paths from here: turn around and continue the trend, or keep consolidating. Either way, it depends on how oil prices behave.

Looking at the longer-term timeline, I think oil prices are in a downtrend. Bitcoin and Ethereum can only make moves in a strong trend when oil prices weaken.

2. Intraday $ETH

(Chart 2) Focus on long-side rebounds, with shorts as a secondary play.

1. Keep holding the 2414 long mentioned yesterday for now. A favorable entry = a better holding experience = more room to choose how to manage the position.

2. Go long｜Watch for: a bullish engulfing candle on the 5-minute chart at 2459 before entering.

3. Go short｜Watch two levels: 2538 and 2591. Short if momentum stalls on a lower timeframe.

So today, I’ll look to catch the rebound first and won’t treat yesterday’s correction as the start of a new downtrend.

These posts are just a record of my personal trades, not investment advice.

David’s Trading Notes

October 8, 2026
$BTC
1. Bitcoin

Bitcoin has returned to the lower edge of the range for the third time. The most fearful point is also where the risk-reward ratio is highest.

Let’s first see how it plays out this time. If there’s a correction, a 2–5% pullback in BTC could mean a 6–8% drop in altcoins.

2. Ethereum

Ethereum is currently ranging near the bottom. It’s time to put the intraday tactical position to work; there’s a potential entry setup.
1. Go long around 2565: wait for a volume-backed breakout on a lower time frame before going long.

2. Two major targets: 2613 and 2639. Reduce the position or take profit when it gets there.

3. If price stalls at 2639, there may also be an opportunity to go short.

3. The Psychological Game

BTC is at the lower edge for the third time. Don’t assume it has broken down yet. The third test is often when sentiment is worst and the price is most attractive, but the lower edge is also where stops are most likely to get swept. Ethereum is still ranging near the bottom; only use the tactical position to follow through on a volume-backed move.

The lower edge is where it’s easiest to panic—and also easiest to buy in too early. Go long only after a volume-backed breakout above 2565. If there’s no volume, just watch. Practice what you preach.

These posts are just my personal trading notes, not investment advice.
#美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息

I think the moats around crypto businesses are actually much deeper than people think. After all these years, when people think of lending, they still think of Aave; for DEXs, it’s still Uni and Ray; in Asia, it’s USDT for stablecoins, while in the West and on-chain, it’s USDC; for CEXs outside the West, it’s Binance, while in the West, it’s Coinbase; for perp DEXs, it’s Hype. Even in launchpads—the business with the most challengers and the shallowest moat—people still use Pump to play memecoins.

All of these businesses have faced challenges from newcomers, many of them formidable competitors. Some were short-lived; others could only capture a tiny slice of the pie or carve out a niche on a new chain.

For most businesses in crypto: product strength defines user habits > user habits determine liquidity > liquidity, in turn, determines product competitiveness.

Trying to predict how low or how high Bitcoin will go in the short to medium term is one of the most pointless things you can do. It’s enough to have a rough, general idea in mind;

What matters is knowing what you should do when it gets there—and being able to take the right actions you believe you should take.

David's Trading Notes

October 7, 2026
$ETH

I. Intraday Plan
Today's intraday strategy: prioritize selling rallies, with buying dips as a secondary strategy.

1. ETH has now broken out of its consolidation range and bounced to 2639. Look to short on a lower-timeframe bearish engulfing pattern.

2. Price came just short of 2581 this morning; that level remains valid.

3. Keep a limit order at 2529.

II. Outlook

The lower boundary of the range has broken, so treat this as a correction for now. Don't look for longs inside the range. Watch how price reacts to 2639 on a rebound; if a bearish engulfing pattern forms, look to short.

For now, keep a close eye on BTC. If BTC doesn't dump, don't treat this ETH correction as a larger-degree move. Remember: until BTC dumps, this is just an intraday correction. Be patient and wait for the right levels—don't confuse yourself. David is here to be your guiding light: #币安推出BinanceIntelligence

The purest relationship in this world is the one based on money, and the noblest thing you can do is make a fair deal.

Picture this: It’s the middle of the night—just before dawn. It’s pouring rain (or snowing heavily), and you have a fever. You need some fever-reducing medicine.

All you have to do is open Meituan, JD.com, or Taobao. For less than 10 yuan in delivery fees, the delivery guy will bring the medicine right to your door in half an hour.

Now imagine asking your boyfriend or girlfriend to bring it. Or your best friend. Or even your parents or your son.

Think about it.

David's Trading Notes

$ETH
October 6, 2026

I. Ethereum

The market is still mostly range-bound today. It’s been trading sideways in a range for nearly two weeks.

1. Intraday price is still fluctuating between 2636 and 2730. Don’t trade except at key levels. If you’re an M and want to trade recklessly, then pretend I never said that.
2. Long: watch 2690–2695; go long only after a bullish engulfing candle. Go long at 2666 if a bullish candle forms.

3. Short: keep an eye on 2742; go short if a bearish engulfing candle forms on the five-minute chart.

4. Once price breaks out, you can aggressively follow the move on a retest of either boundary. (Chart 2)

5. For a long-term long: watch 2581 and enter; place a limit order to enter on the left side at 2530, with a 1% stop loss. This is a long-term position, not an intraday trade. (Chart 3)
8. No signal, no trade.

II. U.S. stocks

Remarkable: U.S. stocks and Treasury bonds have both hit new highs. Will Treasury yields break above 6, or stay elevated and move sideways? I don’t know—we can only watch and wait. I see this as both a risk and an opportunity.

III. The psychology of trading

Two weeks of sideways movement can easily eat away at the profits made earlier. Stay patient and sit tight; don’t budge. Wait for a signal before getting back in. Don’t chase before a breakout, and don’t hesitate once the breakout happens.

#币安推出BinanceIntelligence
#Drift黑客受害者启动索赔

Why is the crypto primary market dying so fast? We were once one of the most active investment firms, and over the past decade, we’ve seen the problems become increasingly clear. First, the narratives have collapsed: from white papers and institutional endorsements to inflated TVL, the market basically no longer buys it. Second, supply is out of balance. There are now tens of thousands of projects, making it extremely difficult for excellent ones to stand out. Third, the 1➕3 vesting mechanism is essentially designed to kill VCs, letting projects, market makers, and exchanges exit first. Fourth, there’s the cost of getting listed. Why do primary-market projects now need high valuations and large funding rounds? Mainly because listing on several leading exchanges costs an average of tens of millions of dollars. VCs have plenty of problems too, but without substantial VC support for the primary market, all that’s left is active token-launching syndicates and MEME coins. The primary market is a vital source of crypto innovation, and industry leaders need to genuinely focus on building. For example, Binance should improve its listing criteria; under its current model, even Vitalik’s ETH wouldn’t have been listed on Binance back then. Next, the 1➕3 vesting mechanism should be abolished altogether. VCs take on the greatest risk and shouldn’t be saddled with the worst vesting terms. Whether a project succeeds or fails is fundamentally not up to VCs. Finally, crypto projects need to return to generating real revenue and buying back tokens. The most important factors behind the U.S. stock market’s sustained prosperity over so many years have been earnings growth and a commitment to returning value to shareholders. That’s what industry leaders should be doing, so that secondary-market investors can find genuinely high-quality projects.

I grew up in Shenzhen.

Hot dry noodles, zhajiangmian, rapeseed oil, stir-fried dishes drenched in oil, and chili peppers.

The brain fog never went away. I felt chronically inflamed, weak, and exhausted.

No discipline. No ambition. No sense of control over my own life.

Then I discovered the “Thin Muscle” diet—and it gave me a new life.

$ETH David's Trading Notes

October 5, 2026
#ETH

I. ETH

Intraday: Focus mainly on buying dips, with selling rallies as a secondary strategy.

1. If price retests the 2690–95 range, go long when a signal appears. Unless a large bearish candle breaks through the range, go long when price touches it.

2. There are two levels to watch for shorts: at 2742, a bearish candle could offer a chance for a quick short; at the 2826 resistance zone, wait for an opportunity to short again. If the bulls push price up to 2826, wait for a signal before trading—don't provide early liquidity.

II. Macro catalysts and volatility

The bulls are somewhat stronger at the moment. It’s quite fitting that just as the market starts to see volatility fall, or has been range-bound for a while, bullish news comes along. Maybe the whole world really is just a ramshackle operation. Volatility has come down now. Be patient, be patient, be patient—important things are worth repeating three times.

III. My view

Here's a spooky story: whenever market volatility keeps dipping, the real ride is about to take off. Everyone stay safe 😎 “The big one is coming.”

The crypto market has been bearish since October 2025 for half a year; although Bitcoin has only fallen by a bit over 50%, 99% of altcoins have been in such a sorry state that it's hard to watch—many are even worse than in previous bear markets.

Now

Things are looking better

A bull market is here

And the most efficient way to make money in a bull market is to trade seriously

So, based on all of the above, it can be concluded: at a time like this, putting your energy anywhere other than trading is disrespectful to the bull market, disrespectful to opportunities, and disrespectful to yourself for having endured the bear market.

Messing around, wasting emotions—what’s the point? #Zcash现货ETF首现周度净流出9360万美元

What your fortune is like after National Day, belike:

People in the comment section saying “Take it 💸”
#ETH

🚨 Nonfarm payroll released
This 2.9w number is extremely favorable—everything is so good the market is going to panic

Wow, director is awesome. All the talkers today, come and show off for me. Historical data revised downward, and the rate-hike probability is dropping again

The non-farm payrolls report is landing tonight, and what’s really worth watching may not be the jobs data itself, but whether it can keep pushing down expectations for a rate hike in October.

Right now, the market has already priced in about a 23% chance of an October hike. A few days ago it was still around 70%, so expectations have clearly eased.

So if this NFP report only keeps the probability around 20%, or even if the data comes out and pushes it back up again, risk assets may very likely lose momentum.

What I’m hoping for more is this scenario:
NFP deals another blow, pushing the odds of a rate hike down to around 10%.

That would create another stretch of expectation vacuum in the market, allowing risk assets to keep climbing for a few more days, and maybe even carry this week’s rally through.

As for the later rebound in rate-hike expectations, there’s really no need to worry. What truly needs to be avoided is the market just beginning to relax, only for the NFP release to immediately yank those expectations back up.

The data is only the surface. The real game tonight is how pricing moves.
#非农就业数据

David’s Trading Notes

October 2, 2026
$ETH

Tonight is the Non-Farm Payrolls. After a week of moving sideways, we’re waiting for this to trigger the move. The market has already broken out of the range; if the pullback to 2720 does not hold, then there will be room to move.

1. Two key levels: 2771 and 2826. A signal shows up with 5-minute probe spikes; you can use that for short positions.
2. As mentioned in earlier posts: the trend has already formed, and it will continue. Hold your positions, David’s troops!!

Before the data is released, make sure your existing trades have breakeven stop-losses. Hold the lower-position trades first; intraday, only trade based on the signals at these two short levels. The data night is most likely to reveal the direction early. We’ve waited through a week of sideways action—don’t go all-in on shorts just because a release is coming. Only take signals at 2771 and 2826; once you’ve traded, exit. Don’t go head-to-head against trend positions.
#比特币升至8.5万美元附近
#以太坊三季度涨70.9%

Today, BTC’s rise is closely related to the new SEC custody rules.

The CLARITY Act didn’t pass, and the crypto-market-structure bill in Congress is still being held up. But the U.S. hasn’t stopped pushing forward with crypto development—it’s still doing its best to address the issue of getting large funds and institutions to enter.

For institutions to allocate to BTC, the key prerequisite is that assets can be held in compliant custody. Previously, custody came with certain thresholds. Now, if you can’t find a suitable custodian and the conditions are met, institutions and funds can self-custody. Also, state-chartered trust companies that meet the requirements can become custodians for crypto assets.

There are more custody pathways now, and the rules are clearer as well. So the friction for $BTC to enter funds, institutions, and regulated accounts should decrease. That’s certainly positive for Bitcoin’s own holdings.

Moreover, when BTC pulled back a few days ago, part of the contract positions had already been cleared, and open interest has clearly dropped. Some of the leveraged chasing-the-rally has exited, and overall market positioning isn’t that heavy right now.

On top of that, after the PCE came in below expectations, market concerns about further rate hikes decreased. Citi also raised its BTC target price, making it easier for the price to move higher.

Of course, there’s also the Non-Farm Payrolls data today, which could affect the market. But it’s already pretty clear to see that although Trump hasn’t done much in terms of personnel appointments, the SEC and CFTC leadership he appointed really can still move crypto forward for a stretch.
#SEC拟放宽投顾加密托管规则

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Victoria Harbour—Wishing everyone a Happy National Day🎉

Fireworks🎆—From the view of the Kimpton Suite

The taste of money💸