I feel like a lot of people around me are hoping to see a repeat of the early-2023 bull market, but I don’t think there’s much chance we’ll break below that 75,000 support level. Here’s what caused things to play out that way in 2023:
- March 3: Silvergate Bank, which had many crypto clients, began winding down, and Coinbase started cutting ties with it;
- March 7: In testimony to Congress, Powell said inflation was still stubborn and interest rates might need to go higher and stay there for longer;
- March 8: Silicon Valley Bank faced a bank run, then regulators took it over, making it one of the largest US bank failures since 2008;
- March 10: Circle disclosed that it had about $3.3 billion deposited at SVB, and the USDC depeg worsened, with USDC briefly falling to around $0.87;
- March 11: Another crypto-related bank, Signature Bank, was also shut down by regulators;
I’m not saying another black swan event like this is completely impossible—just that the odds are very low..... My current view is that if last night wasn’t the bottom, then we’ll probably dip to around 78,000–79,000 sometime in the next day or two.
I think what’s more worth looking back on is how, early in the last bull market, BTC bounced back after a pullback and then surged 45% in just two weeks, despite all those black swan events—from rate-hike fears to major blowups.
Early bull markets always surge amid FUD. Treasure the chance to build a position at these low levels, and don’t get shaken out by a little volatility early in the bull market. #比特币反弹至8.3万美元
- March 3: Silvergate Bank, which had many crypto clients, began winding down, and Coinbase started cutting ties with it;
- March 7: In testimony to Congress, Powell said inflation was still stubborn and interest rates might need to go higher and stay there for longer;
- March 8: Silicon Valley Bank faced a bank run, then regulators took it over, making it one of the largest US bank failures since 2008;
- March 10: Circle disclosed that it had about $3.3 billion deposited at SVB, and the USDC depeg worsened, with USDC briefly falling to around $0.87;
- March 11: Another crypto-related bank, Signature Bank, was also shut down by regulators;
I’m not saying another black swan event like this is completely impossible—just that the odds are very low..... My current view is that if last night wasn’t the bottom, then we’ll probably dip to around 78,000–79,000 sometime in the next day or two.
I think what’s more worth looking back on is how, early in the last bull market, BTC bounced back after a pullback and then surged 45% in just two weeks, despite all those black swan events—from rate-hike fears to major blowups.
Early bull markets always surge amid FUD. Treasure the chance to build a position at these low levels, and don’t get shaken out by a little volatility early in the bull market. #比特币反弹至8.3万美元