大嗯BNB

The Ripple Swell 2026 conference opened in New York and runs through October 29.
This is Ripple’s largest industry conference of the year, and the period when major XRP-related announcements have been most concentrated over the past few years— institutional partnerships, payment corridor launches, regulatory progress, and new product releases. Historically, XRP volatility around these three days has been far higher than on ordinary trading days.
Here’s the current backdrop: XRP is trading at around $1.30–$1.31 in October, down about 6% for the month and notably weaker than BTC, which is down 1% over the same period. This relative weakness isn’t due to a problem with XRP’s fundamentals. Rather, the broader market is waiting for the FOMC meeting on October 28 and for a clearer macro direction. Capital is flowing into BTC, putting pressure on altcoins across the board.
But Swell is a catalyst independent of macro conditions.
Here are a few relevant data points: XRP ETFs saw $117.4 million in inflows in September alone, their strongest monthly figure since spot XRP ETF products launched. The market currently puts the probability of the FOMC pausing rate hikes in October at 83.9%. If the macro outlook is confirmed on October 27, that could give XRP a macro tailwind as well. XRP’s spot price is near $1.30, with resistance above at $1.37 and $1.48.
Swell conference announcements typically deliver the most information on the first day of the event. This year, areas to watch include progress on institutional expansion for RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin; new compliance tools for the XRP Ledger; and details of payment corridor partnerships with traditional financial institutions.
I’m not saying XRP will rise to a specific target because of this conference—Swell’s outcomes vary from year to year. Some years bring a sharp rally; in others, the price “drops as soon as the conference ends.”
But one thing is certain: over the next three days, XRP-related news will be far more concentrated than at any other time. This is one of the most important periods to watch this month.
Do you have an XRP position? How are you planning to trade during this period? Let us know.
$XRP
$BTC

POLYX is a compliance-focused blockchain designed specifically for security token issuance, with a core focus on the RWA (real-world asset tokenization) sector. It touched an all-time low of $0.0276 on August 18, then gradually stabilized.
On the 1-hour chart:
The price rebounded from a low of $0.03265 and is currently at $0.03477, up 1.58% on the day. The consolidation range in the green box is roughly $0.0341–$0.0361. The price is now hovering near the top of the range, with a noticeable increase in trading volume—a typical signal ahead of a breakout, though it could also be a false breakout. The key is whether the price can close and hold above this level.
Looking at the moving averages: MA7 and MA25 are converging, with no clear bullish alignment yet. MA99 is still overhead, acting as resistance, which suggests this rebound is still in its early stages.
The RSI is around 47, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for both bulls and bears.
Polymesh launched its v8 mainnet upgrade in July this year, its biggest technical update since going live in 2021. It is also testing Confidential Assets, a feature that lets institutions conduct private securities transactions on-chain. This puts it at the intersection of three narratives—RWA, compliance, and privacy—and there is a fundamental rationale behind it.
But price action and fundamentals are two different things. POLYX is down 95% from its all-time high of $0.75, so there is still a long road to recovery.
My key level to watch: whether it can close above $0.0361 on the daily chart will be crucial in determining whether this rebound has staying power.
Are you building a position in POLYX?
$POLYX #POLYX

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, sent a letter to the parliamentary Committee on Finance. Its wording was cautious, but the message was clear: lawmakers should start preparing the legal framework for the possible introduction of a digital krona.

First, some background. Sweden launched its e-krona research project in 2017, making it one of the world’s earliest central banks to explore a CBDC. But in 2023, a government inquiry concluded that there was not enough need to issue a digital krona at that stage, and the project was effectively put on hold.

Three years later, the Riksbank itself has brought the issue back to the forefront, citing three reasons:

First, the ECB’s digital euro project is moving ahead. EU trilogue negotiations are expected to conclude in 2026. Although Sweden is not in the euro area, if the digital euro becomes widely used across Europe, the Swedish krona payment system could gradually be sidelined in cross-border transactions.

Second, the potential threat posed by foreign-currency stablecoins. The letter states directly that if stablecoins pegged to foreign currencies become attractive for everyday transactions, the use of the krona itself within Sweden could come under pressure. That may sound like a distant concern today, but the Riksbank believes it should not be taken lightly.

Third, the question of timing. The Riksbank estimates that even if preparations for legislation began now, it would take at least five years to go from legal amendments to technical implementation. So the point of starting now is not to say “we’re going to issue one,” but to “open the door”—so that it won’t be too late if one is needed in the future.

It is worth noting that the letter makes no decision on issuance and sets no timetable. The Riksbank was clear: whether to issue a digital krona is a political decision, not one the central bank can make unilaterally.

But viewed in the context of the global CBDC landscape, the message is clear: the shift from “there’s no need” to “we can’t afford not to prepare” is itself a statement.

Stablecoins are forcing sovereign currencies to reassess their own digitalization plans, and that pressure is spreading from the dollar to the euro area, the Nordic region, and Asia. Every country is taking a different path, but the direction is becoming increasingly consistent.

Do you think CBDCs will ultimately compete with stablecoins—or replace them?
$USDC
#瑞典央行敦促重新评估电子克朗

Gold (XAUUSDT) fell to $3,994.52, dropping below the $4,000 mark for the first time since July, down 2.36% on the day.
A look at the backdrop explains the logic behind this drop: Gold rallied from around $3,800 in early October, briefly reaching a record high of $4,381 on October 20. It gained nearly 16% in three weeks, and those gains were the “trade tension premium”—the market had priced in the risk of worsening U.S.-China relations.
Now that expectation is starting to ease. At the ASEAN meeting, U.S. and Chinese negotiators reached a provisional working framework. Restrictions on rare earth exports may be eased, and the risk of 100% tariffs has declined. Trump said he “feels very good about making a deal with China,” and a meeting between the two leaders has been added to the APEC agenda.
As the safe-haven rationale weakens, gold prices fall. CPM Group put it plainly: this pullback is unwinding the trade tension premium that built up over those three weeks.
ETFs are selling too—the largest single-day outflow from gold ETFs since May occurred last Friday, with institutional investors actively reducing their holdings.
What this means for crypto: Gold and BTC have not been highly correlated this year, but both fall under the broader “de-dollarization/safe-haven assets” narrative. Gold’s decline suggests improving market risk sentiment and cooling demand for safe havens. Against this backdrop, capital may shift toward risk assets, which could be a short-term positive for BTC.
Keep an eye on two things: the Fed’s rate decision (this week) and the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping. If either sends a dovish signal, gold could remain under pressure, while BTC may benefit in the opposite direction.
With gold falling below $4,000, do you think this is a temporary pullback or a trend reversal?
$BTC $XAUT
#黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元

October 23: A specific event is happening today—BTC options expire, with a notional value of $1.23 billion.
The Max Pain price is $82,000—the price at which options buyers lose the most and sellers gain the most. Historically, around options expiration, prices often gravitate toward the Max Pain price. Bitfinex's implied volatility range is $80,750 to $84,650—today's "fence."
After the options expire, the fence disappears.
Then, within four days, two major events happen at the same time:
October 27–28: FOMC meeting. The market currently prices in about an 87% chance of a pause in rate hikes in October, but a "hawkish pause" is also possible—the Fed holds rates steady but signals a "December rate hike" in its messaging. This outcome would have a neutral-to-bearish impact on the market. A purely dovish outcome (clearly no hike and no mention of December) would be a positive catalyst; an actual rate hike (currently a 13% probability) would clearly be bearish.
October 27–29: XRP Swell conference (New York). This is Ripple's biggest annual industry conference, and historically it has often been the venue for announcements about XRP-related partnerships, regulatory developments, and institutional access. This year, XRP ETFs saw $117.4 million in inflows in September alone, while XRP has clearly underperformed BTC among major coins (XRP is down about 6% for October so far). The Swell conference is the next event that could change that picture.
With both events converging at the same time, either outcome could bring significant price volatility.
As things stand, BTC is around $82,500, with dominance above 60%. On-chain indicators (a record high in whale addresses, a sharp decline in active selling pressure, and a return in ETF demand) are positive. Strategically, Bitfinex believes that if BTC enters FOMC day on a rally (for example, holding above $84,400), the risk of a pullback is actually higher—because selling pressure after the uncertainty has passed could be heavier.
Whether BTC can hold above $84,400 is the clearest indicator to watch heading into next week.
Are you planning to add to your positions before the FOMC, or wait until the outcome is announced? Share your positioning strategy.
$BTC

$XRP

Trump is invoking the Defense Production Act to expand oil production. This needs to be viewed as a series of actions, not a one-off policy.
On April 20, Trump signed five executive orders formally invoking Section 303 of the Cold War-era Defense Production Act (DPA), designating oil production, refining, and logistics infrastructure as “industrial resources essential to national defense.” This effectively gives the federal government a blank check: it can provide direct financial support, guarantee financing for projects, and bypass local and state approval processes.
In September, Vice President Vance announced that the DPA would be used to support the expansion of a Texas refinery in partnership with the Delek Group. This is the first time in the DPA’s history that it has been used directly for the expansion of a single refinery. Traditionally, the law has been used to address strategic supply-chain shortages, so targeting a refinery itself is a signal.
On October 9, Reuters, citing three sources, reported that Trump was preparing to issue another presidential memorandum directing agencies to find ways to bypass state-level regulatory hurdles and further lower diesel prices. The backdrop is the November 3 midterm elections, with diesel prices near historic highs.
The bigger picture: Rising risks around the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict with Iran, combined with surging electricity demand driven by the AI infrastructure boom, have led the Trump administration to frame energy supply as a national defense issue rather than a market issue.
The transmission path to crypto is straightforward: downward pressure on oil prices → lower inflation expectations → a greater likelihood that the Fed will continue cutting rates → a weaker dollar → gains for risk assets, including BTC. But this is a long-term thesis. The DPA is not an instant fix, and infrastructure projects have long lead times.
In the short term, the policy’s direct impact in putting downward pressure on oil prices is uncertain—the supply shock from the situation in the Middle East cannot be offset immediately by new U.S. refineries. The market is pricing in the signaling value of “Trump continuing to push the energy independence narrative” more than anything else.
Energy prices ultimately affect inflation, inflation affects the Fed, and the Fed affects BTC. Are you keeping an eye on this chain of events?
$BTC
#特朗普援引国防生产法扩大石油产能

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $635 million in net outflows in a single day.
Breakdown across three issuers: BlackRock’s IBIT saw $254 million in outflows, Fidelity’s FBTC $217 million, and ARK’s ARKB $109 million.
This wasn’t the largest single-day outflow of the year—larger outflows occurred in September and at the start of the year—but against the backdrop of a difficult October, the figure stands out.
Ethereum ETFs also saw outflows of $110 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at $75.5 million and ETHB at $17.2 million.
Looking at October as a whole: BTC ETFs have recorded more than $1 billion in net outflows so far this month, while ETH ETFs are nearing $1 billion—making this one of the worst months for outflows this year.
These outflows came against a specific backdrop: in early October, BTC slid from around $80,000 to lower levels, while the Nasdaq was also under pressure. The peak week of earnings season (Meta and Tesla), combined with elevated 10-year Treasury yields, left overall risk sentiment defensive. In this environment, institutional investors trimming their ETF positions makes sense.
But there’s one contradiction worth watching: BTC ETFs are still seeing net inflows year to date; October has simply been quickly eating into the buffer built up over the previous months. If upcoming earnings data improves risk sentiment, the return of capital could also be rapid.
ETF flows are a barometer of institutional sentiment, not a direct driver of prices—but consecutive net outflows often mean that short-term incremental capital is waiting for a better entry point, rather than actually leaving the market.
What do you make of this wave of outflows—is it a shakeout or a real retreat?
$BTC
$ETH

Celestia has launched Eden, an EVM-compatible chain designed specifically for AI Agents. TIA jumped 16% that day, reaching a new price high for 2026.
Eden’s concept isn’t complicated, but it fits the 2026 AI narrative perfectly: enabling AI agents to trade, make payments, and issue tokens onchain autonomously, without human intervention. Eden uses the Celestia mainnet as its data availability layer, and TIA is Eden’s native gas token—every transaction on Eden directly drives demand for TIA.
Block times are 100 milliseconds, or 10 blocks per second. Eden’s first testnet project is called Botfun—AI Agents issue and trade tokens based on narratives they generate themselves. It looks like a pretty wild experiment.
Celestia’s official positioning is measured: it calls Eden “a tool for measuring how much blockspace demand autonomous Agents can create.” Not a promise—just a measurement.
But one data point is worth noting: from September 18 to October 15, the daily volume of data rollup projects submitted to Celestia fell by about 26%. Before Eden launched, Celestia’s actual usage was already shrinking.
So the underlying logic behind this rally is that the AI Agent narrative and expectations of demand for TIA as a gas token have gotten ahead of real usage data.
TIA climbed from $0.47 on October 10 to a high of $0.769, before facing resistance at $0.80. The RSI is nearing 74, suggesting it’s overbought in the short term.
Whether Eden can genuinely drive onchain transaction volume is what will determine if TIA can keep rising. The narrative is already priced in; now it’s time to watch the data.
Can Eden generate real onchain demand from AI Agents? What do you think?
$TIA
#celestia涨16%创2026年新高

#BinancePick
The next day, Ben was still there

Twice a year, the crypto market gets “held hostage” by U.S. stocks: during Q1 and Q3 earnings season. And right now, we’re in the busiest stretch of the latter.
This week (October 19–23) is the peak of the entire Q3 earnings season, with 70 S&P 500 companies reporting results. The main events: SpaceX (Tuesday), Netflix (Tuesday), and Meta and Tesla (both after the market closes on Wednesday).
Why does this matter to crypto?
The short-term correlation between the Nasdaq and BTC has stayed between 0.5 and 0.7 this year. Last week (October 13–17), the Nasdaq fell about 2.5% for the week, and BTC also pulled back to the $80,000 range. The mechanism is simple: when risk appetite rises, institutions add to both BTC and tech stocks; when it falls, they reduce exposure to both.
There are several key points of divergence in this week’s earnings to watch:
Meta: Q2 EPS came in well below expectations ($6.18 vs. the expected $7.19), due to a one-off tax expense—not a deterioration in the business. Ad revenue actually beat expectations. Q3 revenue is expected to be $6.1–6.4 billion, with AI-driven ad efficiency in the market’s spotlight. Its full-year capex guidance of $130–145 billion will also face repeated scrutiny.
Tesla: Q3 deliveries came in at 486,500 vehicles, about 5% above expectations. But revenue is expected to be down roughly 2% year over year, with margins under pressure from pricing. What Musk says on the earnings call often has a bigger impact on the stock’s direction than the numbers themselves.
SpaceX (already reported): It posted its first-ever quarterly profit, while its AI computing rental business grew about ninefold year over year—directly boosting market sentiment toward the AI infrastructure sector.
The structural logic is this: if Meta and Tesla can reassure the market about AI spending, the Nasdaq could recover, increasing the odds that BTC rises alongside it. On the other hand, if guidance is cautious or capex gets out of control, risk appetite could weaken further, and $80,000 may remain a resistance level.
Earnings season isn’t just about individual companies; it’s about the market repricing its consensus on whether “AI spending is still worth it.”
Once this week’s earnings are out, do you think their impact on BTC’s direction will be more bullish or bearish?
$BTC $SPCXB
#股票财报季

CME officially launches UNI futures contracts: standard contracts for 10,000 UNI and micro contracts for 1,000 UNI. Cash-settled, with no on-chain wallet required, and fully compliant with CFTC filing requirements.
The first regulated-channel block trade was completed shortly afterward.
This news may not seem significant on its own, but it looks different when viewed on a timeline.
On February 11 this year, BlackRock connected its $2.2 billion BUIDL tokenized money market fund to UniswapX—the first compliant institutional product to trade on-chain directly through a decentralized exchange. It also bought a batch of UNI governance tokens.
On July 23, Uniswap v4 introduced Permissioned Pools, allowing tokenized funds and securities to make markets on-chain while enforcing investor eligibility checks. Superstate, Securitize, and Dowgo were the first to join.
On September 22, CME announced UNI futures, the 11th single-asset crypto contract, following Cardano, Chainlink, Stellar, Avalanche, and Sui, which had already been listed earlier this year.
They launched on October 19, and the first block trade was completed.
This timeline points to one thing: UNI is gradually shifting from a “DeFi governance token” to an asset that institutions can allocate to compliantly. BlackRock can buy it, CME can trade it, and compliant funds can use Permissioned Pools—the door is open.
On the day UNI futures began trading, the price was around $7.49, down about 25% from its post-announcement peak of $9.70–$10.10 on September 22. A classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” move.
But the real question after the futures launch is: can trading volume pick up? BTC futures also took time to gain traction after they launched.
Do you think UNI futures will follow the same institutional accumulation path that BTC and ETH did after launching on CME?
$UNI #UNI

#uni首笔受监管渠道大宗交易完成

I was looking into ENA recently and came across an interesting timeline.
After ENA peaked last October, its price plunged to an all-time low near $0.09. During the decline, early seed investors kept receiving monthly token unlocks and selling as they unlocked—so the supply pressure never let up.
On August 27, the Ethena Foundation dealt with all of these issues at once. It pushed through four things:
First, it bought out all the locked tokens held by seed investors who had been selling as soon as their tokens unlocked, and sent them on their way. Investors who hadn’t sold were given the opportunity to sell at their original purchase price, but nobody took it—which suggests they’re still bullish.
Second, all remaining investor tokens fully unlocked at once on October 5, bringing the monthly unlock schedule to an end. The ticking time bomb that had been weighing on the price for a year was defused.
Third, the fee switch proposal passed a vote on September 8: 95% of the Foundation’s net revenue will be used to buy back ENA on the open market once USDe’s circulating supply reaches $7.5 billion. It’s currently around $5 billion, so there’s still a $2.5 billion gap—but the direction is clear.
Fourth, the framework for ownership of the protocol’s intellectual property and economic interests (the Master Framework Agreement) is expected to be released this month, firmly directing the value of the protocol to token holders rather than Ethena Labs’ equity holders.
Standard Chartered has picked up on this thesis and set a $2 target price for ENA—about 7x from the reference price of $0.28—with a year-end 2028 time horizon, drawing a comparison to UNI’s price performance after its fee switch.
ENA trending now probably isn’t random—it’s the market repricing the token after all these events came together.
The fee switch won’t actually activate until USDe rebounds to $7.5 billion. That progress is worth watching.
Do you think USDe can surpass $7.5 billion by the end of this year?
$ENA #ENA

BTC is trading around 84,500–84,875, reaching its highest level in the past week.
First, an on-chain data point: the number of whale addresses holding more than 100 BTC has hit an all-time high of 20,338.
What does this number mean? It doesn’t mean that a single whale is buying. It means the total number of addresses with “whale-level” holdings has reached a record high. While BTC was pulling back from 87,000 to 79,676, a large number of addresses holding 100 BTC or more emerged, suggesting that beyond institutions, a considerable number of high-net-worth individuals and small-to-medium-sized institutions continued to accumulate during this period.
Meanwhile, a single whale withdrew 1,162 BTC from market maker Wintermute on October 14 and another 1,090 BTC on October 21, for a total of 2,252 BTC (about $187 million). These coins didn’t go to an exchange; they went to new addresses, effectively being quietly stashed away.
On the price front, BTC has rebounded about 6.2% from its October 15 low of 79,732, and the daily RSI is nearing 90 in the short term.
One thing needs to be made clear here: an RSI near 90 is a signal of extremely strong momentum, not a signal to “short immediately.”
An RSI above 90 means buying pressure is far outstripping selling pressure in the short term. Historically, this has usually corresponded to an accelerating trend phase. In October 2020, for example, BTC rose from 13,000 to 20,000 with its RSI around 90. An RSI of 90 doesn’t mean the top is in; it means “bulls are in control during this period, and momentum is very strong.”
But it also means the price has moved quite quickly in the short term, increasing the likelihood of a pullback to test the area around 83,000.
Key figures right now: 84,540 is the resistance at the one-month moving average, as well as the average cost basis for ETF holders (around 84,340). BTC needs to hold above this level to challenge the October high of 87,300. With five days to go until the October 27 FOMC meeting, any unexpectedly hawkish signals during this period could disrupt the current momentum.
But the all-time high in the number of whale addresses is a structural signal—not noise for today, but an indication of the medium-term direction.
Whether BTC can hold above 84,500 before the FOMC is crucial over these next five days.
How are your positions looking right now—have you added or reduced? Let us know.
$BTC

After market close on October 20, SpaceX released its Q3 earnings report—its first quarterly profit since going public, with net income of about ¥700 billion (approximately $4.7 billion).
That figure needs some context to understand why it matters.
SpaceX went public this June at an IPO price of $135, raising about $85.7 billion in the largest IPO in history. Its market cap briefly topped $2 trillion on the first day of trading, but then fell by nearly half over the next two months. The reason was simple: Q2 revenue beat expectations ($7.8 billion, up 92% year over year), but the company still posted a net loss of $541 million and spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditures in a single quarter, most of it on AI infrastructure.
The market’s thinking at the time: the company was burning through cash too quickly, and profitability was nowhere in sight.
Q3 broke that assumption.
The main driver of SpaceX’s first-ever profit was its AI business. In Q2, the AI division generated $2.6 billion in revenue, up 247% year over year. Analysts’ Q3 estimate then jumped straight to $6 billion, as the contract for Anthropic to rent the Colossus data center for $1.25 billion a month began to be fully reflected in the results in July, alongside new contracts with customers like Google. The description “AI business revenue 9x” refers to this growth curve.
The business model is straightforward: buy Nvidia GPUs, build data centers, then rent them to companies like Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. It’s the same logic as Starlink—build capital-intensive infrastructure and recoup the investment through rental income.
But one detail is worth noting: these AI computing contracts have 90-day termination clauses, so customers can choose not to renew at any time. The revenue surge is real, but whether it can continue will depend on future renewals.
One other variable: about 1.3 billion shares will be unlocked after the Q3 earnings release—more than the entire IPO offering. Even with strong earnings, that potential selling pressure shouldn’t be ignored.
What position is SPCX holding now?
$SPCXB

Is today the first day? How should I play?
Which track has the highest chance of winning?

#BinancePick

Japan was one of the earliest countries to take action on stablecoins, but progress was slow—until it began to accelerate over the past couple of years.
It all started in 2023. That year, Japan amended its Funds Settlement Act, separating stablecoins from crypto assets and defining them as “electronic payment instruments.” Only banks, money transfer service providers, and trust companies are allowed to issue them, and they must be backed 100% by yen deposits or government bonds.
Once the legislation was in place, things started heating up. In October 2025, Japan’s first compliant yen stablecoin, JPYC, went live. Issued by JPYC Inc., it is pegged at 1 yen = 1 JPYC, settles in seconds, and costs less than 1 yen in fees. The country’s three megabanks—MUFG, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho—have also announced plans to jointly issue a stablecoin by March 2027, with the Financial Services Agency officially backing the initiative.
The Digital Agency is now discussing an even bigger idea: using stablecoins for public benefit payments.
The logic is straightforward. In July 2026, the Japanese government’s “Priority Plan” set out a clear direction: use My Number (the personal identification number system) to create a system for the government to pay citizens directly. Integrating stablecoins into this system would solve the last mile of benefit payments: programmable on-chain payments that are traceable, arrive 24/7, and incur almost no fees.
Compared with traditional bank transfers, the efficiency gains from using stablecoins for benefit payments are clear. The challenge lies with users: cash and credit cards are still the norm in Japan, and stablecoin wallet adoption remains extremely low. In January 2026, SMBC ran a pilot that enabled direct JPYC payments using My Number cards, without requiring users to install a separate wallet app. This approach aims to overcome that final hurdle.
Yen stablecoins are still at an early stage, but the Japanese government is now discussing them as part of its public infrastructure framework. That sends a very different kind of signal.
Do you think yen stablecoins can become a mainstream payment method in Japan within five years?
$USDC

#日本国交相将研究稳定币退税

Last October, NEAR cut its annual issuance rate from 5% to 2.5%. The way it was carried out was interesting: the community vote failed to reach the 66.67% threshold, but the core team pushed the code into an upgrade package anyway, leaving validators 30 days to decide whether to accept it.
It passed in the end. But validators including Chorus One publicly criticized the move: If the vote didn’t pass, what do you call it when you push it through anyway? Governance?
This history matters because the same scenario is now unfolding for a second time.
On September 30, Sal Ternullo, CEO of NEAR treasury company SVRN, proposed a new plan on the governance forum: cut the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6%, phased in over 24 months, while lowering the annualized staking rate from about 5.4% to 3.5%.
The reasoning behind the numbers: NEAR issues about $140 million worth of new tokens each year, while its TVL is only about $157 million and annual transaction fees are under $3.2 million. Put simply, the network is using high inflation to subsidize security costs, even though there isn’t enough usage to justify those costs. Halving issuance would mean issuing about 970,000 fewer NEAR each year.
But this proposal signals something more far-reaching: SVRN also mentioned the idea of a “fixed supply” on the forum. It’s not part of this vote, but co-founder Illia Polosukhin has already publicly endorsed similar ideas. If NEAR really moves toward a fixed supply, that would mean a completely different valuation model.
The vote is still underway. Clearing the 66.67% threshold is the first hurdle; if it passes, validators will still need to go through another round of the upgrade process.
History tells us that even if the vote fails, the core team might still push it through—but that would provoke a backlash over governance.
The outcome of this contest is worth watching more closely than the “inflation cut” itself.
If you hold NEAR, what impact do you think this vote will have on the price?
$NEAR

#near投票拟将年增发率降至1.6%

On October 21, BTC is hovering around $82,500–$83,000, with the FOMC meeting just six days away.
I dug through the ETF flow data from the past week, and one number made me take a second look:
On October 20, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net inflow of $665 million in a single day—the largest daily inflow since October 2025.
Pay attention to the timing: BTC had just pulled back from $87,000 to $79,676, both CPI and PPI came in above expectations, and market sentiment dropped from a high of 74 on the “Fear and Greed Index” to 59. Retail traders were asking, “Can $80,000 hold?”
And right then, institutions came in with $665 million in buying in a single day.
What does this tell us? While retail traders are pricing in macro risks—rate-hike odds, inflation data, and FOMC uncertainty—institutional investors are working from a different set of assumptions. In their eyes, prices around $80,000 are worth investing heavily in.
Looking at other figures along the same lines: Strategy currently holds around 848,000 BTC, more than 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply; whale addresses accumulated 85,000 BTC over the past three weeks; and the average cost basis for BTC ETF investors is about $84,340. At $82,500–$83,000, the current price is roughly $1,500 below that level.
Put these four data points together, and they paint a picture of institutional holdings with a lot of cost basis concentrated between $82,000 and $85,000. These investors aren’t likely to sell out quickly after making just 1%–2%—their exit prices should be much higher than today’s.
Of course, the FOMC decision six days from now is the biggest single variable of the year, and any structural analysis should treat the outcome with due caution.
But based on the data we’ve seen so far, it’s already clear who has been buying the dip: not retail traders, but institutions.
Anyone here add to their positions during this pullback, or are you waiting until after the FOMC meeting? Let us know.
$BTC

In my previous post on ZEC, I analyzed the NU7 upgrade and the controversy over 22,000–25,000 coins frozen in the Sprout pool. I initially thought this would create bearish pressure.
Unexpectedly, it surged 8.5% in just 24 hours on October 21.
Looking back at this rally, there are a few clues worth piecing together.
First, the broader privacy narrative is still alive. Naval Ravikant kicked off the first wave last year when he called “ZEC insurance for BTC.” Arthur Hayes later followed with a $10,000 price target, and ZEC climbed from just over $20 in October 2025 to an eight-year high. That narrative hasn’t faded.
Second, Grayscale has already renamed its ZEC trust “The Zcash ETF,” and its NYSE Arca listing application is still awaiting SEC effectiveness. Expectations of institutional investment have continued to build.
Digging further back, ZEC gained 16% in a single day on July 26—the catalyst was Binance announcing its support for the NU7 upgrade and hard fork. Then, just a day later, we saw the same recipe: news of a network upgrade paired with a technical-breakthrough narrative, and ZEC took off.
After the 30% crash in June triggered by the vulnerability scare, the mainnet was fixed within eight weeks, and the price soon reached an eight-year high. The market has been more forgiving of ZEC than expected.
Today’s 8.5% gain was most likely driven by the same combination: the privacy narrative, upgrade expectations, and progress on the Grayscale ETF. It wasn’t a single catalyst—several factors were playing out at once.
Now around $480, with a year-to-date low of $34 and a high of nearly $700—do you think it can hold this level this time?
$ZEC
#zcash24小时上涨8.5%

JPMorgan has made a clear shift in its stance on BTC this year.
In February 2026, JPMorgan Chief Strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou published a report setting BTC’s long-term target at **$266,000**.
The reasoning isn’t bullish sentiment; it’s a very specific quantitative framework: the volatility ratio of BTC to gold has fallen to a historic low of 1.5, suggesting that BTC is maturing as an asset class—its volatility is approaching gold’s, while the gap in market capitalization remains substantial.
Gold’s current market cap is around $28 trillion, while BTC’s is under $2 trillion.
If this volatility gap continues to narrow and institutional investors keep adding BTC to their portfolios, BTC’s theoretical upside is a linear extrapolation based on gold’s market cap—with $266,000 as the figure produced by this model.
Following this line of thinking, in September JPMorgan updated its outlook again: Bitcoin ETFs still have a large amount of open downside-hedging positions (put options), while similar hedges in gold ETFs have largely been unwound. Once this “insurance” weighing on BTC’s price eases, the odds of BTC outperforming gold could rise significantly.
BTC is now trading around $80,000, leaving 230% upside to $266,000.
Of course, this is a long-term target, not a prediction for tomorrow. JPMorgan itself has made that clear: this isn’t a forecast for the next 12 months, but a theoretical value “once volatility has converged,” and the time horizon could be several years.
But what’s interesting is the shift in the underlying logic: from “BTC is a speculative asset” to “BTC is an undervalued store of value.” This change in perspective is more noteworthy than the price target itself.
At the current price of $80,000, do you think this is a chance to get in, or is there still room to fall?
$BTC

#摩根大通预测比特币十年领跑