BTC has been trading sideways around 77,000 to 78,000. Global bond markets are facing selloffs, and the market is waiting for one thing: whether this week’s data can reset the pricing for the September 16 FOMC.
This week has the highest information density since September—a cluster of five key data points compressed into five days: September 2 ADP employment, September 3 JOLTS job openings, September 4 ISM Services PMI plus Fed Governor Waller’s remarks, September 5 ADP Beige Book, and September 6 the official August nonfarm payrolls report.
With these five data releases, any direction they point to will reprice the probability of a September rate hike. Current market pricing is close to a 60% chance of a rate hike—up after Warsh’s hawkish speech, but July’s nonfarm payrolls came in weak at -23,000. If August nonfarm payrolls remain soft, the 60% hike probability will be quickly corrected, easing the macro pressure on BTC.
At the same time, the CLARITY Act’s official September 15 voting date has been confirmed. CFTC Chair Selig has expressed confidence in its passage—this is the first time, among supporters of this year’s bill, that a positive stance has been taken at the level of officials responsible for regulation. This isn’t a political statement by legislators; it’s the judgment of the head of the executive agency—on a very different signal scale.
Put these two together: macro data determines September 16’s FOMC pricing, and the CLARITY Act determines the September 15 regulatory framework. The two milestones are a day apart. Today’s ADP employment data is the first datapoint that can help gauge the direction in advance.
ADP’s private employment numbers were only 44,000 in July. If August remains lackluster, the “soft landing + no rate hike” narrative will regain dominance, strengthening the buy-side logic around BTC near 77,000. If ADP beats expectations, nonfarm expectations will likely rise as well, giving the rate-hike camp fresh ammunition.
This number today is worth watching closely.
What’s your plan for these five data releases this week—are you going to wait for the results before acting, or position early? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
#BTC
This week has the highest information density since September—a cluster of five key data points compressed into five days: September 2 ADP employment, September 3 JOLTS job openings, September 4 ISM Services PMI plus Fed Governor Waller’s remarks, September 5 ADP Beige Book, and September 6 the official August nonfarm payrolls report.
With these five data releases, any direction they point to will reprice the probability of a September rate hike. Current market pricing is close to a 60% chance of a rate hike—up after Warsh’s hawkish speech, but July’s nonfarm payrolls came in weak at -23,000. If August nonfarm payrolls remain soft, the 60% hike probability will be quickly corrected, easing the macro pressure on BTC.
At the same time, the CLARITY Act’s official September 15 voting date has been confirmed. CFTC Chair Selig has expressed confidence in its passage—this is the first time, among supporters of this year’s bill, that a positive stance has been taken at the level of officials responsible for regulation. This isn’t a political statement by legislators; it’s the judgment of the head of the executive agency—on a very different signal scale.
Put these two together: macro data determines September 16’s FOMC pricing, and the CLARITY Act determines the September 15 regulatory framework. The two milestones are a day apart. Today’s ADP employment data is the first datapoint that can help gauge the direction in advance.
ADP’s private employment numbers were only 44,000 in July. If August remains lackluster, the “soft landing + no rate hike” narrative will regain dominance, strengthening the buy-side logic around BTC near 77,000. If ADP beats expectations, nonfarm expectations will likely rise as well, giving the rate-hike camp fresh ammunition.
This number today is worth watching closely.
What’s your plan for these five data releases this week—are you going to wait for the results before acting, or position early? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
#BTC
