At a Reuters NEXT news conference in Washington, Fed Governor Waller said the following:
"If the next two weeks of data continues to move toward the 2% target, I am inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting."
The market’s reaction was immediate. The probability of a rate hike in September fell straight from 70% to 43%. The US Dollar Index slipped below 99 to a two-week low, while the yen surged 2.1%.
BTC rose 6.8% to $82,240, the highest level since May. XRP gained 8.8% to $1.45, SOL rose 5.9% to $104, and ETH jumped 4.42% to $2,486. Total crypto market capitalization climbed to $2.81 trillion. $415 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated—short positions built up by last week’s Warsh hawkish speech were wiped out by Waller’s single line.
This is worth thinking about seriously: Warsh is the Fed chair, and Waller is a Fed governor—both belong to the same central bank, yet in less than a week they issued signals pointing in opposite directions. A hawkish Warsh and a dovish Waller—this isn’t a coincidence; it’s the public airing of internal disagreement within the Fed.
Waller’s wording was conditional: "if the data continues to be good"—and that condition hangs over today’s August jobs report. At 8:30 p.m. ET, the final major data point before the September 16 FOMC meeting is released.
July’s payrolls were -23,000. If August’s jobs report continues to come in soft, Waller’s "inclination to pause" will get support from the data. That would push the probability of a September rate hike even lower—BTC holds 82,000 and could even press higher. If the data beats expectations, then Waller’s condition won’t hold, and today’s gains could face pressure to unwind.
Over the past three months, BTC fell from 126,000 to 58,000. It then spent three months grinding at a bottom around 64,000, before rising 25% in August. Waller said one sentence last night, and it climbed another 6.8%—now at 82,240.
Standard Chartered’s target price by year-end is $100,000. From today’s level, that’s still 17.5% away.
Have you already positioned yourselves before this Waller signal? Share your entry logic.
$ETH
$SOL
$XRP
"If the next two weeks of data continues to move toward the 2% target, I am inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting."
The market’s reaction was immediate. The probability of a rate hike in September fell straight from 70% to 43%. The US Dollar Index slipped below 99 to a two-week low, while the yen surged 2.1%.
BTC rose 6.8% to $82,240, the highest level since May. XRP gained 8.8% to $1.45, SOL rose 5.9% to $104, and ETH jumped 4.42% to $2,486. Total crypto market capitalization climbed to $2.81 trillion. $415 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated—short positions built up by last week’s Warsh hawkish speech were wiped out by Waller’s single line.
This is worth thinking about seriously: Warsh is the Fed chair, and Waller is a Fed governor—both belong to the same central bank, yet in less than a week they issued signals pointing in opposite directions. A hawkish Warsh and a dovish Waller—this isn’t a coincidence; it’s the public airing of internal disagreement within the Fed.
Waller’s wording was conditional: "if the data continues to be good"—and that condition hangs over today’s August jobs report. At 8:30 p.m. ET, the final major data point before the September 16 FOMC meeting is released.
July’s payrolls were -23,000. If August’s jobs report continues to come in soft, Waller’s "inclination to pause" will get support from the data. That would push the probability of a September rate hike even lower—BTC holds 82,000 and could even press higher. If the data beats expectations, then Waller’s condition won’t hold, and today’s gains could face pressure to unwind.
Over the past three months, BTC fell from 126,000 to 58,000. It then spent three months grinding at a bottom around 64,000, before rising 25% in August. Waller said one sentence last night, and it climbed another 6.8%—now at 82,240.
Standard Chartered’s target price by year-end is $100,000. From today’s level, that’s still 17.5% away.
Have you already positioned yourselves before this Waller signal? Share your entry logic.
$ETH
$SOL
$XRP
