鸡父

《Dad's Shady Spot Trading Plan》
Check out the small image for specifics. Initially, I was going to write a detailed piece, but then I thought, if I write a few hundred words for every coin, first off, you guys won't have time to read it, and secondly, I won't have time to write it. Most importantly, since late April, I've been waiting for Bitcoin to pull back and break the previous low before executing my spot buying plan. Currently, $BTC has hit a low of 64000, close to breaking that previous low, so I’ll keep it relatively brief.

Summary:
1. I'm not too bullish on Ethereum's future, so I don't recommend coins too heavily tied to Ethereum (like $LDO , ENS, etc.). Sure, some projects are on the ERC chain, but coins that don't have a strong correlation with Ethereum itself (like Virtual) remain unaffected. Some tokens (like SAFE) have intricate ties with Ethereum, but the projects can completely detach from Ethereum in the future, so I’m listing those as well.

2. Investment has its phases. For instance, US stocks are still riding the AI wave, and tech stocks are relatively high, so bottom-fishing in 2026 shouldn't focus on the AI sector. The only exception is $VVV , which has revenue-generating capabilities and continues to buy back and burn tokens. For meme coins, aside from the early movers (the '土狗'), investing in memes should primarily be done in 2027; 2026 isn't a good year to invest heavily. As for platform tokens, aside from monsters like hype that use 90% of profits for buybacks and burns, most platform tokens should be focused on in 2028/29 since they typically surge during the final dance of a bull market. As a bonus, considering the high possibility of a DEX explosion in the next bull market, platform tokens in that cycle should mainly be DEX-related.

3. With institutions getting involved, the wealth-generating capability of memes may diminish, giving way to projects that can truly bring wealth effects. Among these, the clear revenue-generating capabilities lie within DeFi and exchanges, so investment should focus on these two sectors. Additionally, LINK’s income is actually decent, though the correlation between the token and the project is a bit weak.

Crypto market monthly review and analysis (07.22)
Summary:
1. The pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
2. The stock market being overbought and the precarious situation of leveraged traders.
3. The essence of leveraged ETFs is a mathematical problem.
4. Gold: long-term bearish and short-term bullish.
5. Let’s talk about the real estate market.
6. The rebound isn’t over yet—go short first.

In terms of operations:
1) $BTC : build short positions in batches in the 66,000–71,000 range. Liquidation price above 80,000; take profit at 56,000.
2) $ETH : build short positions in batches in the 1,950–2,150 range. Liquidation price above 2,400; take profit at 1,350.
3) $SOL : build short positions in batches in the 78.5–85 range. Stop loss above 95; take profit at 55.
4) Monthly: DCA 3wu worth of BTC and 1wu worth of SOL at the end of each month.

Because I really don’t believe that BTC at 66,800 is the peak of this rebound, and the altcoin season index is currently around 55 and hasn’t touched above 75. So the altcoin spot I bought earlier will still be held a bit longer, but at the latest by mid-August I will sell the altcoins and wait for a lower level to buy back.

For ETH and SOL, their exact price points are somewhat unclear. It’s not out of the question that 0.025 and 0.001 are the lowest points of their respective BTC exchange rates during this bear market. In trading, overall ETH and SOL should still follow BTC—don’t overthink the precise levels.

There are many reasons why I think there will be a high point, yet I set up short positions early. First, for coin-denominated shorts: a 1x short will not be liquidated, so going short early is effectively just hedging; you can earn funding fees too—no matter how you look at it, it’s not a losing trade. Also during a bear market, try not to guess the top—sometimes the market can suddenly drop big on you. And for the U.S. stock market, August is generally not a great month, so the chance that BTC tops in August is relatively high as well. So it makes sense to establish a bottom-position early and then gradually add over the next 2–3 weeks, from a time-cycle perspective.

I will continue holding the U.S. stock shorts—at least until the Nasdaq reaches around 22,000. From the timing perspective, it’s roughly near the MA125 on the weekly chart. At that point, I’ll close half of the U.S. stock short positions and secure it at break-even. Until then, just be patient and hold. In fact, the funding fees for my individual shorts have already exceeded my margin; so regardless, it won’t turn into a loss.

My long short position of $BTC was closed at 57777 this morning, and then I bought 50000u of spot. The long short position of $SOL was closed last night, and then I bought 20000u of spot.

My plan for my spot holdings next is: over the next 6 months, buy 30000u of BTC at the end of every month, and buy 10000u of SOL at the end of every month. In addition, for altcoins (including shitcoins), I’ve allocated a total budget of 50000u (of which 15000u will be placed in a copy-trading account, and the money in that account will not be withdrawn for the next 3 years). In short, the capital I’m using to bottom-pick this bear cycle is about 360,000u.

As for contracts: after I closed my SOL short position yesterday, I also同步（did in parallel） set up a small position in a coin-margined long. But unfortunately, after my BTC short position was closed this morning, I only ended up buying spot, and I didn’t enter the long position before it pumped. That’s on me—I previously had a tiny leftover BTC amount in my coin-margined account, so this morning I thought it had already transferred in, but in reality it hadn’t. I only realized once I opened the long, and by then it was already too late. The position was too small.

Anyway, I’ve currently placed an order around 58000 and I’ll see if I can get filled and benefit from it over the next couple of days.

There are a lot of new followers, so I’ll mention it again: in every trend order of mine, I always reserve at least two opportunities for averaging down—don’t come in and YOLO everything right away.

Monthly Market Analysis in Crypto (2026.06)
Summary:
1. CPI, crude oil inventories, and unemployment rates reflect the fundamentals.
2. The financial tsunami is expected to occur around July 29 after the FOMC meeting.
3. From SanDisk to U.S. stocks.
4. Major expenditures from tech companies have yet to be priced in.
5. Structural risks in U.S. equities.
6. The certainties and uncertainties of Bitcoin.
7. Reasons for bullish sentiment in July but not going long in late June.
8. How to view the 59000 level?
9. Some personal thoughts.

Operations:
1. Holding a short position on $BTC with a take profit at 58000 (can take half profit at 61000);
2. Holding a short position on $SOL with a take profit at 60;
3. Gradually accumulating longs in the 58000-53000 range, stop loss at 49000, take profit at 73000;
4. Looking at short-term, there's a long opportunity at 61000 for $BTC (needs a stop loss at 59000).

Adding to altcoin positions gradually, there's a good chance for a small altcoin season in July/August, but in case it doesn't happen, be prepared to hold spot until 2027.

Historically, gold tops have lasted over six months, so the probability of gold rising in July/August is also high. While holding high-position shorts, it's still possible to enter longs. However, after August, avoid going long on gold as it could enter a prolonged downtrend at any time, making it more rational to add to shorts at highs, potentially holding them until the end of Bitcoin's bull market (Q3 2029).

I opened a spot trading signal, and this isn't something for you all to follow blindly; it's more for you to observe.
A few days ago, I posted a list of altcoin spot trades (see pinned post), and some friends told me that just looking at this list doesn't really help them understand how to buy specifically. There were also friends in the chatroom who mentioned they didn't know the exact position ratios for each altcoin or the entry prices.
So, I came up with this idea. In this signal, I will share the position ratios of my personal spot account (excluding $BTC , $ETH , $SOL , and BNB). In short, all information will be public, which can provide you with some reference.
The main issue is that currently, there are only contract trades available, no spot trades, so we have to take a roundabout way for now. Please bear with me.

Of course, following along is fine too. Let me briefly explain how I plan to execute this signal.
Bull Market Period:
The cryptocurrencies will primarily be those listed in my list. I will buy when market sentiment is fearful + altcoin season index < 25, go full position when extreme fear + altcoin season index < 20, sell half when greedy + altcoin season index > 75, and go all out when extreme greed + altcoin season index > 80. The data will be taken from the average values of coinmarketcap and coinglass.
Bear Market Period:
Conditions will be slightly relaxed (it's tough to be greedy in a bear market), but the overall trading logic remains the same.

It's worth mentioning, either don't follow or if you do, try to stick to 1000u or more. My funds are spread out, so I might not be able to buy into some coins.

My $ETH just hit take profit, bagging around 750 points. Back on May 18th in the market analysis (the article was written on the 17th), I clearly mentioned that $BTC would see 58000, and Ethereum would hit 1600, while Bitcoin was still hovering around 77000.
Including in my June 1st post (written on May 31st), I also stressed that from June 1st to June 7th, we would kick off the main downtrend.

You could say anyone who listened to me should have made some gains (including myself).

I’m not posting this to pat myself on the back; if I wanted to do that, I’d be day trading every day and telling you all how I made 800 points on longs today and 1000 points on shorts yesterday, pocketing your commissions.
But something not-so-pleasant happened in the chat today, and I won’t get into details. I just want to say that I acknowledge both right and wrong; since joining bn, I’ve written three self-reflective notes. But the reality is, overall, I’ve made the right calls more often, which is why I’m profitable in real trading. If you have your own ideas, don’t blame your wrong trades on others, thanks.

If we absolutely have to buy, what should we get?
Summary:
1. Why is the US stock market at its peak right now?
2. The predictability of global inflation.
3. Wealth-making opportunities with sugar and rubber.
4. If you must buy US stocks, focus on defensive sectors first.
5. Is the main downtrend starting next week? $BTC ?
6. Strategies for the World Cup.

(I saw someone asking in the comments before. Don’t rush for the altcoin spot list, I’ll drop it soon. I’m currently on a road trip with my partner, so time is tight. Many coins might have already missed the good entry points.)

Monthly Crypto Market Review (05.18)
Summary:
1. What does the surge in long-term U.S. Treasury rates mean?
2. U.S. stocks are soaring, inflation is skyrocketing, and Treasury yields are at new highs; one of these must be wrong.
3. Detailed analysis of U.S. stocks.
4. The leading trend of XLF.
5. Bitcoin's sustained strength is due to the bullish U.S. stock market.
6. Bitcoin's options during U.S. stock pullbacks.

Trading Strategy:
1. Holding short position for $BTC , take profit at 58000;
2. Holding short position for $ETH , take profit at 1610;
3. Holding short position for $SOL , take profit at 55.5;
4. On the short term, there’s a clear long opportunity for Bitcoin in the 74500-75000 range; to maintain an uptrend, the 74000 level cannot be breached on a daily candlestick. The current short-term pressure is around 79300, and this resistance will likely decrease over time.
5. For the day, 76300 is a high-probability support level.

In the U.S. stock market, I've built three layers of shorts (NASDAQ 24500, 25000, 26000). For every 1000-point increase in the NASDAQ, I plan to add another layer of shorts. The current holding period for these shorts is about 12-13 months. Many are anticipating the NASDAQ to break above 30000; if it does, a significant drop is highly probable afterward. However, there is also a chance that around 26500 could be a top for NASDAQ, considering the short-term outlook for a pullback. Historically, after the change of Fed chairs, the stock market tends to see double-digit declines within six months. This implies that the NASDAQ should pull back below 24000 before the year ends. From a cyclical perspective, the strength of the U.S. stock market is unlikely to persist until 2027.

I've maintained my gold position for a long time; historically (whether in 2011, 1996, or 1980), each peak in gold has lasted over six months. This means if gold is set to experience a significant drop, we’ll likely have to wait until at least August, as prior to that, it will be in a high-range consolidation phase. I’ve made several trades in gold; if we see a clear drop before August, theoretically, I could still capture 1-2 more long trades; however, if my long orders don’t get filled before then, I’ll have to cancel the pending orders. The holding period for my shorts has been around 2.5 years, and it appears I’ll need to hold for another 26 months.

In the cryptocurrency space, the probability of a small altcoin season is significantly higher in July-August. If Bitcoin indeed experiences a major drop in May-June, accumulating altcoins is essential.

I took a look, and in the comments section with over 300 people, not a single person noticed that this picture is edited, which shows that there are really very few people doing trend trades in the square.

If he really used 800u to open a position, after the price of the coin multiplied by 30, his margin would become 24000u, and the liquidation price would also change (even if he has no other positions, the liquidation price is dynamic, because there are also fees, not to mention he has other positions). But if you look at his past posts, you will find that when the price of $RAVE was over 2 and over 8, his liquidation price was exactly the same to four decimal places.

To put it bluntly, he doesn't even bother to deceive!

He also said he would draw 20 people to give each 100u, which definitely requires editing the picture again. Don't you believe it? @东链大超哥 If anyone dares to post their trading card in the post (not asking for public real trading, just posting the trading card in the post). I will publicly apologize and transfer him 100u.

@Old九歌 Old Nine, don't @ me anymore, I just want to silently like, really don't want to post. Always saying we should gather but haven't yet, it's really a pity. If there's an opportunity this year, we must gather once.

Everyone, don't expect my analysis anymore, the analysis will not be updated, at most I will occasionally share some of my "insights".
I actually organize every day and can share with everyone:

1. The essence of going with the trend is to chase highs and cut losses, which is the biggest scam in the crypto world. Those who recognize "going with the trend" essentially lack the ability to anchor value. Moreover, most of the time in the crypto market is in turbulence, and the probability of false breakouts and false breakdowns is greater than that of true breakouts and true breakdowns, so discussing going with the trend from a trading strategy perspective is also very poor.
2. In the next cycle, the growth space for DEX and RWA will be very large.
3. If the monthly line shows 6 consecutive bearish candles, then in April, we can only maintain a buying strategy. The entry of short positions must wait until the monthly line closes with a bullish candle before looking for positions.
4. The Nasdaq performed better than the S&P last week, indicating a short-term overselling of tech stocks.
5. Last Thursday, the short positions of the US-listed ETFs increased by 10% in a single day, the second-largest single-day increase on record, only behind the 16% increase in early April 2025. After April 2025, a period of violent rise occurred in the market.
6. The reason a rebound is not a reversal: After the tariff hammer in April 2025, retail investors went crazy buying the dip. However, last week, the weekly purchase scale of retail investors suddenly dropped by 30%, and the net inflow of ETFs decreased by 22%. Combined with the bullish leverage situation mentioned in my last article, it can be confirmed that retail investors no longer have extra bullets.
7. The biggest pain point on March 27 is 75000.
8. $RIVER This project is limited by the upper limit of the chain abstraction track, and the coin price should not exceed 50. However, the project team is still reliable; many people have forgotten the activities from 2 years ago, but after 2 years, the project team has still distributed the activity rewards. Such a project team is at least not bad people.
9. $HYPE The current market value is a bit high. But just for the fact that it almost uses all its income for buybacks and has destroyed most of the buybacks, you know this is a good project, and you can feel the determination of the project team.
10. In the past month, the only way to profit from shorting is to do it without losses and without a big picture. And such a trading strategy has a very low cost-performance ratio when viewed in the long run.
11. There have been 20 military conflicts after World War II, and from the start of the conflict to the lowest point, the S&P has averaged a decline of 6%, recovering the decline in an average of 28 days in 19 of the incidents.

Weekly Market Analysis in the Crypto Sphere (01.31)
Summary:
1. Strategies and techniques for the long cycles of gold and silver.
2. Current fundamentals of gold and silver.
3. Why did the USD index crash and then surge? — The news side needs to be viewed in reverse.
4. U.S. government shutdown, Chinese New Year, and the metaphysical indicators of the new moon.
5. The core issue is whether 80600 is the bottom of a weekly line.
6. Historical phase one of bear markets.

Operations:
1. Bitcoin long positions are held, take profit at 98500.
2. ETH long positions are held, take profit at 3233.
3. SOL long positions are held, take profit at 143.6.

In fact, specific ideas have already been written in detail in the analysis; I would like to add a few more words here. If everyone has time, I still hope you can open the small chart to take a look, rather than just focusing on my operations. The small chart contains my relatively complete thoughts.
The current drop, even if it hits a lower low at the beginning of next week (Monday to Tuesday), I still believe it does not have continuity.
You can see that the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are still in a widely opened state. In this situation, I feel it is a bit excessive to continue a one-sided downward trend; the time is not sufficient. So it will probably be similar to the double top from December 24 to January 25, or the triple top from July 25 to October 25, where a relatively complex bottom structure forms, followed by a significant rebound before continuing a new weekly downtrend.
It should be noted that the occurrence of 97900 was in mid-January, a full month before the Spring Festival. I am not saying that I cannot accept the breaking of cyclical patterns, but it cannot be too outrageous. Even if it says mid-February, starting a new weekly downtrend before the Spring Festival would still be acceptable to me.

I thought carefully about it all night, and I feel that this week's weekly chart seems unable to determine how to operate; I need to observe for another week. This is primarily because 17 days have passed since the daily line drop starting from 97900, and it could end at any time and begin a daily line-level rebound. Therefore, the most important thing right now should be to observe the strength of this daily line-level rebound. Secondly, if the price drops first in early February, perhaps the probability of a rebound in February will actually be greater. So even if it breaks key levels, one should not draw too effective conclusions, as the likelihood of a pullback in February still exists. Thirdly, if there are new lows next week but it rises afterward, in fact...

It was originally said to wait until the weekly close to see how to operate, but today many people came to ask me throughout the day. I guess it's because of the sharp drop in the morning, which made many people panic again.

My usual posting frequency is not high, but in the past few days, I will try to persist in posting more, hoping to bring a bit of confidence to the bulls.

Today, I provide an indicator of the long-short ratio. Normally, the ratio of long to short positions is inversely related to the price trend (for example, as the price rises, the long-short ratio decreases). However, if the long-short ratio and the price move in the same direction (for instance, the price is lower, but more people are shorting), it indicates a high probability turning point.

As shown in Figure 1, on January 20, 25, the price reached a new high of 110000, and as a result, more people went long, but later it dropped all the way to 74500.
As shown in Figure 2, on April 7, 25, the price reached a new low of 74500, and as a result, more people shorted.
Again, as shown in Figure 3, on November 21 of this year, it plummeted to 80600, and as a result, more people shorted.
There are many such examples, but due to space limitations, I won't list them all.

Today (Figure 4), the price created a lower low, but at the same time, we also saw more people shorting rather than going long. Besides, a stronger supporting evidence is that the fees have also turned negative simultaneously, which indicates that many people are really chasing shorts at positions like 82500-83000, meaning that Bitcoin may currently be at a stage turning point.

As a trader, unless I have set positions in advance, I will not make unnecessary operations during a trend, whether it's an upward or downward trend. I tend to wait until the market stabilizes before deciding whether to close my positions based on indicators and macro background.
Especially when the market movement exceeds my expectations, I need more time to think and judge, rather than shouting 'Brothers, hurry up and close or add positions,' which is too emotional and not my style.
In short, this is my habit, and this habit is formed based on good position management. Without the risk of liquidation, I can wait longer, think through more dimensions of information, and strive to come up with a relatively reasonable operation plan.

Based on the current situation, everyone (especially those who are stuck in long positions) is quite anxious, so I will try to write out the market analysis tomorrow. Many people have also been asking me about precious metals these days, and I will write a bit more about that.

Starting around 12 o'clock, many friends have been asking me about my views on the market, and I have been responding one after another until now. Then I will share my thoughts in the square:
1. I completed my last round of buying at the positions of $BTC 85555, $ETH 2814, $SOL 118.1.
2. How to deal with the orders in hand is indeed a problem. According to the original plan, it should be to exit at 86000 during the rebound. However, I personally feel that I need to observe a few more indicators.
1- Will there be a new low before and after the US stock market closes (3-5 PM) until noon tomorrow? If so, what will the position be?
2- Where will the weekly closing be?
3- Where will the monthly closing be?

The reason for further observation is also many
1- I noticed that when Bitcoin hits a new low on a small scale, Ethereum and SOL have some resistance to a certain extent.
2- According to historical experience, after a government shutdown in the United States, the US stock market will rise for at least a week.
3- The monthly line will close on Saturday, the weekly line will close on Monday, and February 2 is a full moon; these critical time points are all overlapping.
3.1- Regarding the full moon, the periods before and after a new full moon have always been relatively valuable turning points. For example, 10.07, 10.21, 11.05, 11.20.
4- A very critical question is whether the 97900 on January 14 is the starting point of a weekly drop? If so, will it drop further for 3 months from 97900? I think that is unrealistic.
4.1- I reviewed all bear markets in history, and the start of a weekly drop has occurred after the Spring Festival.
2022 Spring Festival: February 1, weekly drop started on: March 28
2018 Spring Festival: February 16, weekly drop started on: March 5
2014 Spring Festival: January 31, weekly drop started on: February 1
This year's Spring Festival: February 14, weekly drop started on: ?
5- For friends with high leverage, if you want to reduce leverage, the reference positions I provide are 89400/91000.