Crypto market monthly review and analysis (07.22)
Summary:
1. The pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
2. The stock market being overbought and the precarious situation of leveraged traders.
3. The essence of leveraged ETFs is a mathematical problem.
4. Gold: long-term bearish and short-term bullish.
5. Let’s talk about the real estate market.
6. The rebound isn’t over yet—go short first.
In terms of operations:
1) $BTC : build short positions in batches in the 66,000–71,000 range. Liquidation price above 80,000; take profit at 56,000.
2) $ETH : build short positions in batches in the 1,950–2,150 range. Liquidation price above 2,400; take profit at 1,350.
3) $SOL : build short positions in batches in the 78.5–85 range. Stop loss above 95; take profit at 55.
4) Monthly: DCA 3wu worth of BTC and 1wu worth of SOL at the end of each month.
Because I really don’t believe that BTC at 66,800 is the peak of this rebound, and the altcoin season index is currently around 55 and hasn’t touched above 75. So the altcoin spot I bought earlier will still be held a bit longer, but at the latest by mid-August I will sell the altcoins and wait for a lower level to buy back.
For ETH and SOL, their exact price points are somewhat unclear. It’s not out of the question that 0.025 and 0.001 are the lowest points of their respective BTC exchange rates during this bear market. In trading, overall ETH and SOL should still follow BTC—don’t overthink the precise levels.
There are many reasons why I think there will be a high point, yet I set up short positions early. First, for coin-denominated shorts: a 1x short will not be liquidated, so going short early is effectively just hedging; you can earn funding fees too—no matter how you look at it, it’s not a losing trade. Also during a bear market, try not to guess the top—sometimes the market can suddenly drop big on you. And for the U.S. stock market, August is generally not a great month, so the chance that BTC tops in August is relatively high as well. So it makes sense to establish a bottom-position early and then gradually add over the next 2–3 weeks, from a time-cycle perspective.
I will continue holding the U.S. stock shorts—at least until the Nasdaq reaches around 22,000. From the timing perspective, it’s roughly near the MA125 on the weekly chart. At that point, I’ll close half of the U.S. stock short positions and secure it at break-even. Until then, just be patient and hold. In fact, the funding fees for my individual shorts have already exceeded my margin; so regardless, it won’t turn into a loss.
Summary:
1. The pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
2. The stock market being overbought and the precarious situation of leveraged traders.
3. The essence of leveraged ETFs is a mathematical problem.
4. Gold: long-term bearish and short-term bullish.
5. Let’s talk about the real estate market.
6. The rebound isn’t over yet—go short first.
In terms of operations:
1) $BTC : build short positions in batches in the 66,000–71,000 range. Liquidation price above 80,000; take profit at 56,000.
2) $ETH : build short positions in batches in the 1,950–2,150 range. Liquidation price above 2,400; take profit at 1,350.
3) $SOL : build short positions in batches in the 78.5–85 range. Stop loss above 95; take profit at 55.
4) Monthly: DCA 3wu worth of BTC and 1wu worth of SOL at the end of each month.
Because I really don’t believe that BTC at 66,800 is the peak of this rebound, and the altcoin season index is currently around 55 and hasn’t touched above 75. So the altcoin spot I bought earlier will still be held a bit longer, but at the latest by mid-August I will sell the altcoins and wait for a lower level to buy back.
For ETH and SOL, their exact price points are somewhat unclear. It’s not out of the question that 0.025 and 0.001 are the lowest points of their respective BTC exchange rates during this bear market. In trading, overall ETH and SOL should still follow BTC—don’t overthink the precise levels.
There are many reasons why I think there will be a high point, yet I set up short positions early. First, for coin-denominated shorts: a 1x short will not be liquidated, so going short early is effectively just hedging; you can earn funding fees too—no matter how you look at it, it’s not a losing trade. Also during a bear market, try not to guess the top—sometimes the market can suddenly drop big on you. And for the U.S. stock market, August is generally not a great month, so the chance that BTC tops in August is relatively high as well. So it makes sense to establish a bottom-position early and then gradually add over the next 2–3 weeks, from a time-cycle perspective.
I will continue holding the U.S. stock shorts—at least until the Nasdaq reaches around 22,000. From the timing perspective, it’s roughly near the MA125 on the weekly chart. At that point, I’ll close half of the U.S. stock short positions and secure it at break-even. Until then, just be patient and hold. In fact, the funding fees for my individual shorts have already exceeded my margin; so regardless, it won’t turn into a loss.
