Crypto Market Monthly Analysis (09.30)
Summary:
1. Under October rate hikes and the risk-asset price patterns during the rate-hike cycle.
2. U.S. Treasury liquidity extraction, with the unemployment rate at a cyclical low. The conditions for the U.S. stock market to top are almost already in place.
3. The Korean composite index that nobody cares about anymore.
4. Big BTC is very likely in the early stage of a bull market, but it’s still missing a daily-level pullback.
5. Be patient and wait for the first weekly-level “second buy” to emerge during the bull market.
6. The probability of making new lows is extremely low, but it’s still not recommended to use too much leverage—always watch out for downside.
Trading plan:
1) $BTC short position is being held; close the short at 69333 and open a long.
2) $ETH short position is being held; close the short at 2050 and open a long.
3) $SOL short position is being held; close the short at 90 and open a long.
4) Every month do DCA: 3wu worth of BTC and 1wu worth of SOL at month-end.
My main spot portfolio is currently in a “buy only, never sell” state. For the altcoin spot: half was sold on August 30th, and the other half was sold on September 29th—so my altcoin holdings are fully cleared right now.
My spot that I manage was created in June. In three months it only grew by about 35%, which is relatively low. But that’s also reasonable—altcoin booms usually concentrate in the latter half of the bull market, meaning from late 2027 through end of 2028, when altcoins will finally see a broad-based surge.
By then, it will be common to see gains of 10x or 20x. Before that, getting an overall doubling would already be pretty good.
As for time cycles: if the 4-year cycle truly doesn’t exist anymore, is that good news or bad news for retail investors? Specifically, if a bear market that normally takes a year only finishes in 8 months, then would a bull market that normally takes three years finish in two years? Or would the bull market extend to 3.5 years?
No one can say for sure. For the “coin hoarders,” that means days won’t be easy.
Similarly, the bull-market tops were: 2013 at 1240, 2017 at 19000, 2021 at 69000, and 2025 at 126000. The multiples were 15x, 3.6x, and 1.8x respectively—each cycle’s rally amplitude keeps shrinking. If we assume this cycle’s peak is 1.5 times the previous cycle’s peak, then the top of this bull market would be only 189000 (in reality, reaching 180k would already be quite difficult).
Then if the 4-year cycle still holds: if BTC reaches around 180k by 2029, what do you think the highs in 2028 and 2027 would be?
In short, try not to buy at the beginning-of-8 positions. Of course, DCA is a different logic.
Summary:
1. Under October rate hikes and the risk-asset price patterns during the rate-hike cycle.
2. U.S. Treasury liquidity extraction, with the unemployment rate at a cyclical low. The conditions for the U.S. stock market to top are almost already in place.
3. The Korean composite index that nobody cares about anymore.
4. Big BTC is very likely in the early stage of a bull market, but it’s still missing a daily-level pullback.
5. Be patient and wait for the first weekly-level “second buy” to emerge during the bull market.
6. The probability of making new lows is extremely low, but it’s still not recommended to use too much leverage—always watch out for downside.
Trading plan:
1) $BTC short position is being held; close the short at 69333 and open a long.
2) $ETH short position is being held; close the short at 2050 and open a long.
3) $SOL short position is being held; close the short at 90 and open a long.
4) Every month do DCA: 3wu worth of BTC and 1wu worth of SOL at month-end.
My main spot portfolio is currently in a “buy only, never sell” state. For the altcoin spot: half was sold on August 30th, and the other half was sold on September 29th—so my altcoin holdings are fully cleared right now.
My spot that I manage was created in June. In three months it only grew by about 35%, which is relatively low. But that’s also reasonable—altcoin booms usually concentrate in the latter half of the bull market, meaning from late 2027 through end of 2028, when altcoins will finally see a broad-based surge.
By then, it will be common to see gains of 10x or 20x. Before that, getting an overall doubling would already be pretty good.
As for time cycles: if the 4-year cycle truly doesn’t exist anymore, is that good news or bad news for retail investors? Specifically, if a bear market that normally takes a year only finishes in 8 months, then would a bull market that normally takes three years finish in two years? Or would the bull market extend to 3.5 years?
No one can say for sure. For the “coin hoarders,” that means days won’t be easy.
Similarly, the bull-market tops were: 2013 at 1240, 2017 at 19000, 2021 at 69000, and 2025 at 126000. The multiples were 15x, 3.6x, and 1.8x respectively—each cycle’s rally amplitude keeps shrinking. If we assume this cycle’s peak is 1.5 times the previous cycle’s peak, then the top of this bull market would be only 189000 (in reality, reaching 180k would already be quite difficult).
Then if the 4-year cycle still holds: if BTC reaches around 180k by 2029, what do you think the highs in 2028 and 2027 would be?
In short, try not to buy at the beginning-of-8 positions. Of course, DCA is a different logic.
