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Large institutions have allocations in their portfolios to bonds, stocks, and other assets. If they increase their bond allocation to overweight, they inevitably have to sell some of their other holdings. Most of what they sell may well be stocks!

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How brutal was that wick last night? It plunged straight down to a low of 80,622, wiping out countless leveraged longs in an instant. The price has now bounced back in a V-shape to around 82,350. It may look lively, but I’d advise you not to rush in and become exit liquidity just yet!

The bulls have been thoroughly shaken out. Look at the 4-hour large-trader long/short ratio: it plunged from 1.96 to 1.51. The ratio of long to short accounts also fell from 1.87 to 1.41. What does that tell us? Last night’s sharp drop liquidated leveraged longs held by retail traders and some large traders. The market has just been through a major flush-out.

The upside momentum is questionable. Although the price has recovered, the 1-hour and 4-hour charts show clear resistance around 83,000–83,150. Look at taker buy/sell volume and the funding rate, too: the rate is only a slight 0.01%, which shows there’s no major capital aggressively chasing longs. This rally is mostly a passive bounce caused by short covering.

My view: after a deep V-shaped bounce, the market often retests the lows. The price is right in the middle of the range now, and chasing longs could easily get you pushed back down by overhead supply. My plan is simple: sit tight and wait for a pullback! If it revisits the 81,000–80,500 range on declining volume and holds steady, I may consider opening a small position. If it breaks below last night’s low of 80,622, the downside will open up completely, and a drop to 79,000 is possible.

Don’t be fooled by a single green candle. The bulls have just been shaken out, and the market needs time to consolidate.

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