小小的躺赢

Core CPI 0.3% + PPI 5.4% + Oil price >100 + 10Y yield has already broken 5% + Fed rate hike of 25bp + the dot plot suggesting another possible hike later this year. Most of these negative factors have basically already been priced in, but BTC still hasn’t made an effective break below 75K.

Core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%.

So it didn’t give the Fed a comfortable “inflation re-accelerating lower” signal. Especially against the backdrop of yesterday’s PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, Brent still above $100, and long-end U.S. Treasury yields nearing 5%. This CPI is more like:
Headline was in line with expectations, but underlying inflation is stickier than the market had hoped.

A rate hike remains a high-probability event, but the CPI didn’t push the odds directly to 80%+.

The reason is simple:
-Core MoM at 0.3% is a bit hot;
-But Core YoY eased from 2.5% to 2.4%;
-Headline YoY is still only 3.4%, with no further acceleration;
-So the Fed still has room to discuss whether the energy shock is temporary.

Before the data release, BTC was already trading in the 76K—77K range, not at the 80K+ highs.
The market had already priced in the CPI before it was released.

Expect continued consolidation between 75K and 80K, as we wait for the Fed—early on September 17 Beijing time.

Today, an extremely extreme macro combination has actually emerged:
PPI 5.4%
Brent $106.6
10Y 4.92%
Fed hike odds are highest at about 70%
BTC ETF has had two consecutive days of outflows.

Under normal circumstances, this combination should put very clear pressure on BTC.
But right now BTC:
is still hovering around 77K.
So today, the most important piece of information is actually:

The bearishness hasn’t, for the moment, kept pushing the price down.
This mirrors the previous situation of:
“Big ETF inflows but BTC doesn’t rise.”

So now BTC may be forming a new short-term balance zone between 77K and 80K, waiting for CPI to break it.

For the next step, there are only two scenarios to watch:
If CPI is softer:
79.8K—80.2K → 81K → 82.8K.
After an effective breakout above 82.8K:
88.5K → 93K → 98K.

If CPI runs hot:
77K → 75.5K → 72K—74K.

Especially pay attention to one combination:
CPI is hot + 10Y breaks above 5% + Brent continues to hold above $100 + ETF continues to see outflows on the third day.

If all four happen at the same time, 75K is very likely to no longer be just a tail-end risk, but instead becomes the main trading target.

So over the next 24 hours, don’t let the few-hundred-dollar fluctuations around 78K distract you. What truly determines the next leg of the BTC move is whether CPI can prove that tonight’s PPI-driven inflation re-accelerating is merely an energy-related disturbance—or whether a U.S. “second round” of inflation is really back.

Focus on the CPI data at 20:30 on the 11th.

The real showdown is in the next 48 hours: PPI → CPI → Fed

Today, BTC has no particularly important U.S. top-tier economic data.
What truly matters is the next two days.

The currently published calendar points to:
September 10: U.S. PPI + initial jobless claims
September 11: U.S. CPI.

And the Fed meeting is:
September 15–16.

So the market is essentially waiting for:
If the nonfarm payrolls are strong and oil is near 100, whether U.S. inflation has accelerated again.

This will produce two very clear trading paths.

If CPI/PPI is on the soft side:
→ The probability of a Fed rate hike declines
→ U.S. Treasury yields fall
→ BTC reclaims above 80K
→ The 81K—82.8K zone is tested again.

If CPI/PPI is on the hot side:
→ The probability of a Fed rate hike shifts back toward 70% or even higher
→ U.S. Treasury yields rise
→ BTC retests 77K
→ 75K becomes the main target.

So for now, there’s no need to make an early directional bet at the 79K level.

Farside’s latest complete BTC ETF data is still as follows:
September 1: -$236.5 million
September 2: +$101.1 million
September 3: +$730.8 million
September 4: +$174.6 million
Total for September 1–4:
Approximately +$770 million.

If we add August 31’s +$216.7 million, then the consecutive five trading days total is approximately:
+$987 million.

ETF purchases are the bulls’ hope—watch the data tomorrow morning at 8:00.

At present, BTC is still being held down by 80,000.
From the chart, if 82,800 is effectively broken through, the rebound will upgrade into a major-level rebound targeting the previous high of 126,000.
In that case, around 98,000 will serve as the new target.

If the ETF can continue to see large inflows, with the Aug 26 PCE printing softer and the Aug 28 Warsh coming in more dovish, the probability of BTC breaking above 82,800 will increase significantly. Then the bears will need to defend against the bulls’ surprise attack toward 98,000.

BTC started a rebound from around 58K and has now entered the prior high pressure zone of 77.5K—82.8K.

Until 82,800 breaks out effectively, the larger structure can still only be defined as a rebound, not a trend reversal.
The essence of the push higher is constantly searching for liquidity and trade counterparties at higher prices; before a true breakout of the prior high, you should focus on guarding against heavy turnover and profit-taking releases at elevated levels.

Last week, BTC spot ETF flows once again showed large net inflows ($1.9B), making the short-term trend clearly more bullish. But what ultimately determines whether the move can be upgraded from a “rebound” into a “new round of trend” is whether 82,800 can break above and hold.
On the macro front, the PCE around August 26 and the Fed signals related to the end-of-month Jackson Hole will be key catalysts for the next round of price acceleration.
Large capital often drives price first into key liquidity zones, then waits for macro catalysts to clarify direction before using the market’s existing leverage structure to complete the acceleration.

ETF re-flows → falling expectations of a Fed rate hike → the Ministry of Finance expands long-term bond repo operations → easing pressure on U.S. Treasuries → BTC breaks above 65.6K → shorts rush to stop out → $1B+ short liquidations → BTC instantly surges to 69K.

If BTC can continue breaking above 70,000, it may reach around 71,500, completing a concentrated cleanup of the major high-leverage existing short positions from the prior phase.

It’s becoming very difficult for future mid-sized and small platforms to directly challenge the big players:
Binance / OKX / Bybit / Bitget / Gate.

So we can no longer pursue:
“Having everything.”

Instead, we should become:
“In one specific area, I deliver something that others cannot replace.”

For example:
A certain region;
A certain type of trading users;
A certain asset class;
A specific arbitrage ecosystem;
A particular on-chain gateway;
A specialized trading tool.
First build a local moat, then expand outward.
This is more realistic than trying to burn money across the board.

In past bull markets, smaller and mid-sized platforms could conceal operational problems by adding large numbers of new users. Even if some customers were restricted by risk controls and profits were deducted, as long as the platform could keep acquiring new users, the cost of customer attrition was not very noticeable. In some cases, even “just returning the principal” might be seen by the platform as a form of benevolence.

But in a prolonged bear market, incremental growth disappears and customers begin comparing the actual returns across different platforms. If a platform merely limits customer profits through risk controls—so customers can generate trading volume but cannot take profits out smoothly—then, in essence, it is consuming the customers’ time cost, and converting that cost into negative brand impact over time.

Therefore, what platforms truly need to improve in the future is not endlessly increasing the precision of risk controls, but strengthening their market making, hedging, liquidity management, and risk-absorption capabilities.

A truly mature exchange should not view “customers making money” as a risk. Instead, it should be able to enable customers to make money, while continuously generating profit through market making, fees, hedging, and liquidity management.

In the past, it was “risk-controlling customers.” Going forward, it should be “managing risk.”
The former filters out customers; the latter improves the platform’s ability to accommodate customers.

In the past, CEXs selected customers through risk controls; in the future, CEXs will rely on market making and risk management to accommodate customers.
Real competition is not about who can identify customers more precisely—it’s about who can enable customers to make money and take their profits, while the platform can still earn money as well.

Last time I said BTC might go up to 67,000, but it still hasn’t reached that level yet. No matter whether it goes up or not, in the future it will most likely keep dropping. It’s safer to wait for it to move downward first. Just wait patiently and don’t be in a hurry.

Recently, Bitget has seen situations with bidirectional pinning, which has caused retail traders to get liquidated (blown up). This reflects that in a prolonged bearish market over the long term, a platform’s experience and risk-management will become increasingly difficult. In the past bull market, it was possible to list a large number of coins; while charging listing fees, the platform could also attract new capital and require projects to make markets, thereby increasing the overall trading volume of the platform. However, as bearish-market capital gradually exits, the trading volumes of altcoins decline and market-making willingness drops. Many projects then enter a “zombie state.” Their market caps may remain, but real liquidity has disappeared.

In a bear market, altcoin liquidity declines and many low-quality assets are gradually pushed to the margins. Some capital may use low-liquidity, high-leverage markets to create extreme volatility, which leads to retail traders getting liquidated. This, in turn, triggers risks to user trust, regulatory risks, and business-model risks. Going forward, exchange competition will no longer be just about who can list more coins and offer higher leverage, but rather about who has stronger asset-selection capabilities, liquidity management capabilities, and risk-control capabilities.

CEX will increasingly resemble traditional financial institutions. In the past, “the bigger the casino, the more profitable it is.” In the future, “the stronger the risk-management ability, the more likely it is to become a long-term entry point.”

BitMEX and BitMart represent two completely different kinds of exchange risk.

BitMEX’s exit, at its core, means that the first generation of derivatives platforms lost their competitive edge and were replaced by ecosystem-style exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX.

BitMart is different. After the platform announced an orderly shutdown, many users reported that withdrawals were delayed. Founder Sheldon Xia responded publicly today in a rare move, but he still hasn’t provided a clear timeline for when withdrawals will resume or detailed information about asset arrangements.

BitMEX and BitMart both appearing in succession actually reflects two trends:
1) Platforms without ecosystems are becoming increasingly hard to survive.
2) Transparency has become the lifeline during the exit phase.

BitMEX was once a pioneer of the crypto derivatives era, but it ultimately exited—not because its cash flow collapsed, but because its business model was outcompeted by the times.

BitMEX hoped to achieve a valuation of around $1 billion by leveraging the value of its “historic brand + pioneer of derivatives.” However, buyers cared more about current trading volume, profitability, and growth potential.

Coupled with the long-term brand impact from the 2020 regulatory incident, BitMEX gradually lost its advantages in competing with second-generation综合 exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX.

This event shows that in the future, exchange competition won’t be about who creates products, but about who controls traffic entry points, builds an ecosystem closed loop, demonstrates compliance capability, has strong capital strength, and earns user trust.

BitMEX’s exit as the leading king of first-generation crypto derivatives marks a turning point for the industry as it shifts from the “product innovation era” to the “ecosystem competition era.”

On February 21, 2025, Bybit suffered an incident in which approximately $1.5 billion worth of crypto assets were stolen. Recently, Bybit has initiated legal proceedings, pointing responsibility toward the North Korea-linked hacker group Lazarus Group and related entities.

The U.S. Senate did not move forward with a vote on the CLARITY Act before its August recess. It is expected to wait until after Congress reconvenes in mid-September.

If passed, the CLARITY Act would further clarify:
SEC and CFTC regulatory boundaries;
cryptocurrency asset classification;
the regulatory framework for trading platforms;
the legal framework for U.S. institutions to enter the crypto market.

The likelihood of rapid implementation in 2026 has clearly decreased.
The impact on BTC is relatively neutral, while the impact is greater for Coinbase, Circle, and U.S. crypto infrastructure companies.

U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls decreased by 23,000 jobs, even though the market had originally expected an increase of about 80,000. On the surface, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but this isn’t because the labor market is strengthening. Instead, about 264,000 people left the labor force, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, the lowest level in about five and a half years.

This directly changes the logic of Federal Reserve market pricing. Before the Non-Farm Payrolls report, the market estimated the probability of a September rate hike at around 55%. After the data came out, it quickly fell to about 40%–44%. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar dropped in tandem, and U.S. stocks rose.

In the near term, BTC is helped by the news. Weak buy-side demand allows BTC to break through short-term pressure and begin a rebound.