Wang Jianlin’s restriction measures have been lifted recently.

Previously, due to an enforcement case involving approximately RMB 186 million, Dalian Wanda Group, Wanda Properties Group Co., Ltd., and Wang Jianlin, among others, were subject to restrictions on high-consumption. Subsequently, the related restriction measures were lifted.

At the same time, photos of Wang Jianlin appearing in public recently drew attention; many netizens noted that he has become noticeably thinner compared with the past.

But what is truly worth paying attention to behind the “looking thinner” is not the personal state change, but:

Wanda and Wang Jianlin, to a certain extent, have become a microcosm of China’s real estate industry transitioning through a new cycle from the golden era.

Wanda: moving from an asset-expansion era to a cash-flow era

During the period of rapid real-estate growth, Wanda represented a highly successful business model:

Buy land → build a plaza → hold and operate → asset appreciation

In that era:

  • Land kept appreciating;

  • The financing environment was loose;

  • Urban expansion was rapid;

  • Demand for commercial real estate grew.

Scale itself is a competitive advantage.

Therefore, a high-leverage expansion model can rapidly amplify enterprise value.

But once it enters the new real-estate cycle:

  • Deleveraging in real estate;

  • Changes in the financing environment;

  • Slower consumption growth;

  • Intensifying competition in commercial real estate;

The model that used to rely on asset expansion has started to face pressure.

Therefore, Wanda chose:

  • Sell part of the assets;

  • Reduce liabilities;

  • Scale back overseas expansion;

  • Focus on core business.

This differs from some real-estate companies heading toward crisis due to a broken capital chain.

Wanda is more like:

After the old growth model becomes ineffective, proactively adjust the business model.

BitMEX: a comparable case in the crypto industry

This brings to mind BitMEX.

BitMEX once pioneered the perpetual contract model.

In the early crypto market:

Perpetual contracts mean:

  • High trading volume;

  • High demand for leverage;

  • Professional trading users;

  • Huge fee revenue.

Perpetual contracts created a batch of exchanges’ past glory.

But then:

  • Binance;

  • Bybit;

  • OKX;

Scale perpetual products and further expand:

  • Spot;

  • Wallet;

  • Web3 ecosystem;

  • A global user system.

The logic of competition changed:

In the past:

Who creates trading products, who leads.

Now:

Whoever owns a complete financial ecosystem has the advantage.

The problem with BitMEX isn’t a lack of creativity, but:

It created an era, but didn’t fully complete the transition to the next one.

The common pattern behind the two cases

Wanda’s past advantages:

  • Asset scale;

  • Land resources;

  • Expansion speed.

BitMEX’s past advantages:

  • Product innovation;

  • First-mover advantage;

  • Professional users.

But after the times changed:

Past advantages don’t necessarily automatically become future competitive strengths.

What truly determines whether a company can survive a cycle is:

Can we complete the new-model transition before the old mode becomes ineffective?

Extending to the CEX industry: the next round of eliminations may come from pattern lag

Current crypto exchanges are also going through a similar transition.

Past CEX competition:

  • Rebate ratio;

  • High leverage;

  • Large number of listed coins;

  • Quickly acquire trading volume.

This model is very effective in a bull market.

But in the future, competition may change.

Because it relies solely on:

  • Fee revenue;

  • Derivatives trading;

  • The hype around sh*tcoins;

Growth headroom is declining.

In the future, exchanges need to build a new moat:

1. Ecosystem capability

Including:

  • Wallet;

  • On-chain ecosystem;

  • DeFi entry point;

  • User asset management.

2. Compliance capability

Especially with the development of RWA:

  • Stock tokens;

  • Gold tokens;

  • Commodity tokens;

Exchanges are getting closer to traditional finance.

In the future, regulatory capability itself will be a competitive advantage.

3. Asset entry capability

In the future, competition won’t be just:

“Where do users trade BTC?”

But it’s:

“Where do users manage all digital assets?”

Including:

  • BTC;

  • US stocks;

  • Gold;

  • Treasury bonds;

  • RWA assets.

Final conclusion

What might be eliminated in the future isn’t necessarily small exchanges, but rather those platforms that stay in old growth models and are unable to complete an upgrade to a financial ecosystem.

In the past:

Trading volume, leverage, and rebates determine growth.

In the future:

The ecosystem, compliance, and asset entry points determine long-term survivability.

Wang Jianlin and BitMEX represent the turning points of two different cycles—traditional business and the crypto industry, respectively.

The shared problems are:

When the advantages an era gives you gradually disappear, do you have the ability to create the next era’s advantages?