U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls decreased by 23,000 jobs, even though the market had originally expected an increase of about 80,000. On the surface, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but this isn’t because the labor market is strengthening. Instead, about 264,000 people left the labor force, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, the lowest level in about five and a half years.
This directly changes the logic of Federal Reserve market pricing. Before the Non-Farm Payrolls report, the market estimated the probability of a September rate hike at around 55%. After the data came out, it quickly fell to about 40%–44%. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar dropped in tandem, and U.S. stocks rose.
In the near term, BTC is helped by the news. Weak buy-side demand allows BTC to break through short-term pressure and begin a rebound.
This directly changes the logic of Federal Reserve market pricing. Before the Non-Farm Payrolls report, the market estimated the probability of a September rate hike at around 55%. After the data came out, it quickly fell to about 40%–44%. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar dropped in tandem, and U.S. stocks rose.
In the near term, BTC is helped by the news. Weak buy-side demand allows BTC to break through short-term pressure and begin a rebound.