币圈老司机

The results of the U.S. midterm elections are beginning to ripple through the crypto market.

The Democrats have regained control of the House of Representatives, and Robert Garcia is set to chair the House Oversight Committee. His first words on the job were “Lawyer up,” aimed squarely at the Trump family’s business interests.

The main focus this time is the Trump family’s crypto ventures, especially World Liberty Financial.

The Democrats plan to investigate the Trump family’s crypto transactions and Donald Trump Jr.’s business dealings.

A controversial investment of around $500 million in WLFI by a member of the UAE royal family could also become a focus of the investigation.

WLFI is seeking a U.S. national bank charter, and the approval process falls under the U.S. Treasury’s regulatory system.

Starting next February, the Democrats plan to question and subpoena the companies involved and their donors.

What truly matters to the market is not just whether the Trump family will face political pressure, but the relationship between the crypto industry and U.S. regulators.

Trump has long pushed to make the United States a crypto hub, but now the family’s own crypto business could become the subject of a congressional investigation.

If the investigation escalates, it could affect WLFI’s application for a bank charter, its business partnerships, and even market expectations for the entire Trump-affiliated crypto ecosystem.

Your money is safer on an exchange than in a wallet

If an exchange is hacked, you actually get compensated; if your wallet is hacked, you don't

Woke up this morning and saw Lao Xu had posted three rants about Binance.

Looking more closely, his main complaint was

that they always leave the pregnant woman on the front lines.

Lao Xu still has a soft spot for the top girl—she is, after all, his idealized first love 🤣🤣🤣

The U.S. midterm elections are over. What the market will really be trading next is the scope of Trump's policy options over the next two years, and the resulting changes in asset pricing.

I think there are three areas to watch in this election:

1. Fiscal policy and U.S. stocks

If the Democrats take the House, Trump may face more resistance to future tax cuts, fiscal spending, and budget plans.

There are two ways this could affect U.S. stocks:

On the one hand, weaker expectations for fiscal stimulus could weigh on corporate earnings and market risk appetite. On the other hand, if the two parties reach a budget impasse, government financing and Treasury yields could see fresh volatility.

For the Nasdaq and mega-cap tech stocks in particular, don't focus only on rate-cut expectations. Also consider real interest rates, capital expenditure, and whether corporate earnings can support current valuations.

2. BTC: Focus on liquidity and regulatory expectations

The core driver for BTC remains macro liquidity.

If expectations for fiscal policy change, the dollar, Treasury yields, and market risk appetite will all be affected, with knock-on effects for crypto markets.

The progress of the CLARITY Act is also worth watching.

If the U.S. crypto regulatory framework becomes clearer over time, it could improve policy expectations for institutional participation and industry growth. But legislative progress doesn't mean capital will flow in immediately in the short term. Ultimately, it will depend on ETF flows, stablecoin liquidity, and actual market demand.

3. The relationship between U.S. stocks and BTC

These two markets shouldn't be viewed in complete isolation.

When the dollar weakens, real interest rates fall, and liquidity expectations improve, both the Nasdaq and BTC may typically benefit from stronger risk appetite.

But if Treasury yields rise rapidly and the market starts repricing financing costs and valuations, tech stocks and BTC could come under pressure at the same time.

It's worth noting that their volatility patterns and capital flows aren't exactly the same, so you can't simply infer BTC's direction from the Nasdaq's movements.

Here's what I'll be watching next:

Nasdaq: Earnings expectations for tech stocks and real interest rates.
BTC: Net ETF inflows, dollar liquidity, and key price structures.
DXY: Whether the dollar's strength or weakness develops into a sustained trend.
U.S. 10-year Treasury: Whether yield changes begin to weigh on risk assets.

The value of trading around this election isn't in simply betting on Republicans or Democrats, but in watching how policy expectations flow through to capital and valuations.

A Douyin insider revealed: 90% of the top spenders who shell out real money are single men who deliver packages or food.

People with plenty of sexual opportunities don’t send gifts to strange women through a screen.

The lonelier and more sexually frustrated people are, the more likely they are to empty their pockets.

You all think I’m trying to hurt you when I tell you to go to KTV 😆😆😆

AI really is handy—someone in the group has already photoshopped a pretty girl for me

😆😆😆😆

After a whole day of hassle, I finally made it to Binance’s event in Phu Quoc.

Thanks to Binance for the welcome card.

Thanks to the gay guy who appeared on camera, @DeFi8362. Anyone who wants some, send me 500U first.

Filmed an interview with Joye

I'll post it once it's edited 😆😆😆

Hongguo Short Drama has just surpassed Doubao in user numbers

Doubao: 419 million users
Hongguo Short Drama: 430 million users

Is Hongguo Short Drama really that magical?

Am I the only one who hasn't tried Hongguo Short Drama? 😅😅😅

I originally thought it would take a week for Binance's deposits to catch up with its withdrawals.

I didn't expect the deposit records to have already matched the withdrawal records today.

This also indirectly shows that over 3 billion doesn't have much impact on Binance.

So fast—5 days faster than I expected 🤣🤣🤣

Apple reported earnings, and despite beating expectations on every metric, its stock fell.

Let’s start with the numbers. Apple reported results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Note that this is the quarter ended September 26, not the fourth calendar quarter.

Revenue for the quarter was $114.48 billion, up 12% year over year. Net income was $30.71 billion, up about 12%. Diluted EPS was $2.10, up 14%.

Wall Street had expected revenue of around $113.4 billion and EPS of about $1.99. Apple beat expectations on both.

Full-year revenue was $478.8 billion, up 15% year over year, and net income was $132.2 billion.

Taken at face value, Apple delivered an impressive set of results.

But seasoned investors know there’s more to an earnings report than total revenue.

First, the iPhone is still Apple’s biggest cash cow.

iPhone revenue was $57.58 billion this quarter, up about 17.5% year over year.

Mac revenue was $10.79 billion, up 23.7% year over year.

Services revenue was $31.57 billion, up 9.8% year over year and reaching a new record.

However, iPad revenue was $6.23 billion, down 10.4% year over year, while revenue from Wearables, Home and Accessories was $8.3 billion, down 7.9%.

This points to an important issue: Apple’s growth isn’t coming from a surge across all of its businesses. It’s being driven mainly by the iPhone, Mac and Services.

Services is especially important, with a gross margin of around 76%.

Hardware brings users into the ecosystem; Services keeps generating revenue from them. That’s what makes Apple so formidable.

Second, the biggest risk in the earnings report is actually rising memory prices.

Apple’s gross margin was 47.9% this quarter, which looks solid.

But one detail is easy to miss: tariff refunds added about one percentage point to Apple’s gross margin and $0.05 to EPS.

In other words, excluding this one-time benefit, Apple’s underlying operating margins bear closer watching.

More concerning, AI data centers are consuming huge amounts of memory capacity, driving up memory chip prices and putting cost pressure on smartphone makers.

Apple has considerable bargaining power with its suppliers, but it can’t be completely insulated from the impact.

Management guided to a gross margin of just 45%–46% for next quarter, a clear drop from this quarter’s 47.9%.

That’s what’s really making the market uneasy.

Third, AI could be key to Apple’s next phase of growth, but that potential hasn’t fully materialized yet.

Microsoft, Google and Meta are all pouring money into AI infrastructure.

Apple is taking a different approach: it wants to integrate AI into the iPhone, Mac and its broader ecosystem.

That strategy has advantages. Apple doesn’t need to simply copy other tech companies’ capital-intensive investment model.

But the practical questions remain: Will AI persuade users to upgrade their phones? Will it make them willing to pay more for higher-end hardware?

If AI merely adds a few features without meaningfully boosting upgrade cycles or Services revenue, the market won’t keep paying for the AI story indefinitely.

Finally, why did the stock fall despite results beating expectations?

I think the key reason is that the market is looking ahead to next quarter, not back at the quarter that just ended.

Apple expects December-quarter revenue to grow 7%–10% year over year, with Services growth projected at 8%–9% and gross margin potentially falling to 45%–46%.

Add rising memory costs, investment in AI servers and supply constraints affecting some new products, and it’s natural for investors to reassess the profit potential of the next few quarters.

There’s another noteworthy change: this is the first earnings report since new CEO John Ternus took over.

Apple is at a turning point between one cycle and the next.

Its biggest strengths remain its enormous global base of active devices, powerful brand premium and Services ecosystem.

But the challenges are clear: Can hardware growth continue? Can AI create a new reason for customers to upgrade? And will rising memory costs eat into profits?

A great company isn’t necessarily a great buy at any price.

This earnings report shows that Apple is still highly profitable, but it hasn’t yet proved that it has found a second growth engine for the AI era.

Next quarter, keep an eye on two figures: first, the impact of memory prices on gross margin; second, actual iPhone sales in the December quarter.

These two metrics matter more than simply watching revenue hit another record.

Binance’s outflow has slowed down

Yesterday, outflows were still as high as 7 billion; today they’re down to 3 billion

Tomorrow, they’re expected to be around 1.5 billion

Add to that Binance’s large-scale wealth management campaign today

It’ll probably take about a week for outflows to return to a net balance

Binance saw net outflows of $3.64 billion on the first day it opened withdrawals yesterday, just 2.1% of its total assets under management

The Binance platform processed $4.649 billion in withdrawals and $1.01 billion in deposits, resulting in net outflows of about $3.64 billion

I’ve seen a lot of exchanges competing for big clients, but there’s really no need

No exchange can match Binance’s liquidity

The big clients you spend a fortune trying to poach will probably be back on Binance a month later

In October, Seres announced it was no longer working with Huawei

Sales fell by 50%

Monthly sales plunged from 40,000 to just 20,000

The car hasn’t changed—it’s still the same car. It’s just that the company selling it isn’t patriotic anymore

Now they can’t sell them at all 😆😆😆😆

Binance will gradually resume withdrawals starting at 14:00 today, with the first batch covering assets such as BTC, ETH, and BNB

Binance is very likely to face the biggest liquidity test in history today

Most people will withdraw their funds, then realize nothing happened and deposit them back

Last night’s scariest Halloween cosplay

I cosplayed your crashing stocks

Send me 50 to buy the dip

What the hell?

Trump might meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un next month

And help Binance get its stolen funds back

America’s toughest old guy meeting North Korea’s toughest ’80s kid?

If he really gets the funds back, won’t the crypto market take off?

Binance just issued an announcement saying it has completed 90% of the recovery of affected assets

It has also completed a snapshot of its proof of reserves

More than 3 billion in just one day—Binance really is loaded

If your money is on-chain and gets stolen, will anyone compensate you?