Still watching the bounce today. The direction is to stay long, but don’t chase above 64,000.
Macro hasn’t fully turned暖. US 10-year yields are still above 4.5%, which remains pressure on risk assets.
However, the US Dollar Index has already fallen to around 100.77, and oil prices have also pulled back from their highs. The market’s panic about the US-Iran situation has not continued to escalate, which gives BTC a brief breather.
But the US-Iran risk hasn’t ended. Both sides are still discussing the Hormuz issue. Ceasefire has also been prone to reversals, and geopolitical headlines could bring another sharp drop and rebound at any time.
For ETFs, there were outflows in the past two days: on July 8, outflows totaled $84.90 million; on July 9, $95.30 million; but on July 10, it returned to net inflow of $90.40 million.
This rebound in flows is basically IBIT buying—single-day net inflow of $86.80 million—indicating institutional funds haven’t fully left; they’re just probing back and forth.
Be a bit mindful of on-chain liquidity. Over the past month, the total supply of USDT and USDC has decreased by roughly $13.9 billion. Incremental capital still isn’t sufficient, so even if there’s a bounce, it can’t be taken as a full-fledged rebound.
Tether’s Q2 BTC reserves still haven’t shown any新增 on-chain deposits so far. The market will be watching whether it’s slowing its coin-buying pace—this news is mildly negative/neutral.
Today, capital is also running into high-volatility meme plays. CASHCAT briefly surged to a market cap of $200 million, and Hyperliquid has listed its perpetuals/contracts. This suggests risk appetite has warmed up, but funds haven’t fully returned to BTC or major coins yet.
On the technicals: BTC is currently around 64.1k. The 1-hour RSI is 56, the 4-hour RSI is 60, and the daily RSI is 54. In the short term it’s not overheated, and 4-hour strength is still holding.
Price has moved back above the 20-EMA and 60-EMA on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. The 4-hour MACD continues to expand above the zero line, and the rebound structure hasn’t broken down.
The funding rate is only around 0.00013%. Open interest is about $1.96 billion, and longs aren’t crowded. At this level, the upside doesn’t face much pressure.
For resistance: the first level is 64.45k. After a breakout, look for 64.67k. Strong resistance remains at 65k.
For support: the first level is 64.0k to 63.7k. Strong support is at 63.5k.
My conclusion is to go long.
If you pull back to 64.0k–63.7k and it doesn’t break, you can continue to enter longs, with a stop-loss placed below 63.3k.
For targets: first look at 64.45k and 64.67k. If 65k can hold, then this bounce has a chance to continue higher.
Macro hasn’t fully turned暖. US 10-year yields are still above 4.5%, which remains pressure on risk assets.
However, the US Dollar Index has already fallen to around 100.77, and oil prices have also pulled back from their highs. The market’s panic about the US-Iran situation has not continued to escalate, which gives BTC a brief breather.
But the US-Iran risk hasn’t ended. Both sides are still discussing the Hormuz issue. Ceasefire has also been prone to reversals, and geopolitical headlines could bring another sharp drop and rebound at any time.
For ETFs, there were outflows in the past two days: on July 8, outflows totaled $84.90 million; on July 9, $95.30 million; but on July 10, it returned to net inflow of $90.40 million.
This rebound in flows is basically IBIT buying—single-day net inflow of $86.80 million—indicating institutional funds haven’t fully left; they’re just probing back and forth.
Be a bit mindful of on-chain liquidity. Over the past month, the total supply of USDT and USDC has decreased by roughly $13.9 billion. Incremental capital still isn’t sufficient, so even if there’s a bounce, it can’t be taken as a full-fledged rebound.
Tether’s Q2 BTC reserves still haven’t shown any新增 on-chain deposits so far. The market will be watching whether it’s slowing its coin-buying pace—this news is mildly negative/neutral.
Today, capital is also running into high-volatility meme plays. CASHCAT briefly surged to a market cap of $200 million, and Hyperliquid has listed its perpetuals/contracts. This suggests risk appetite has warmed up, but funds haven’t fully returned to BTC or major coins yet.
On the technicals: BTC is currently around 64.1k. The 1-hour RSI is 56, the 4-hour RSI is 60, and the daily RSI is 54. In the short term it’s not overheated, and 4-hour strength is still holding.
Price has moved back above the 20-EMA and 60-EMA on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. The 4-hour MACD continues to expand above the zero line, and the rebound structure hasn’t broken down.
The funding rate is only around 0.00013%. Open interest is about $1.96 billion, and longs aren’t crowded. At this level, the upside doesn’t face much pressure.
For resistance: the first level is 64.45k. After a breakout, look for 64.67k. Strong resistance remains at 65k.
For support: the first level is 64.0k to 63.7k. Strong support is at 63.5k.
My conclusion is to go long.
If you pull back to 64.0k–63.7k and it doesn’t break, you can continue to enter longs, with a stop-loss placed below 63.3k.
For targets: first look at 64.45k and 64.67k. If 65k can hold, then this bounce has a chance to continue higher.
