Troy牧一

If the unemployment benefit comes out at 8:30 tonight and dips slightly by one tick, then I’ll go long…$ETH

Trading plan: let's take this long position up to around 1780, then flip to short for a 60 to 80 pip gain, and finally go long near 1665...$BTC

This is absolutely lit!

Got it covered, average price 1731, bros... Ethereum at 1717 is sitting on the lower edge of the major trendline. It's also a trading hotspot in the 15-minute microstructure and a parallel support level where resistance flips. Should be solid support, right? I've canceled the take profit at 1762, let's play it by ear for now. $ETH

The spot ETF's total holdings dropped to 5,485,579.05 ETH on June 18, with a net outflow of 14,113.80 ETH for the day. The main pressure came from BlackRock -7,546.85 ETH and DeFi -5,658.21 ETH. 21Shares led the inflow with +669.56 ETH. As of June 18, the cumulative net outflow reached 3,867.71 ETH, further widening from last week's net outflow of 1,925.66 ETH, indicating increased funding pressure of about 1,942.04 ETH. No wonder ETH has been so weak lately, but even so, the lack of a significant dump shows that a lot of folks still recognize the value at this price. $ETH #伊朗原油降价

I picked up some ETH, the price is at 1742, get in, bros. Lately, it's been a choppy market, so manage your positions wisely. I added to my stack at 1725; if it hits, I’ll lighten up around the average price. Then set a take profit at 1762. $ETH #伊朗原油降价

Breaking News
1. The first round of talks between the US and Iran has wrapped up, with both sides establishing a technical negotiation mechanism. Iran has released five key points from the agreement reached in the first round.
2. UK Prime Minister Starmer has announced his resignation. The nomination process for the new leader of the Labour Party will kick off on July 9, with the new leader set to take office in September.
3. Iran's Central Bank Governor Hemmati stated that there has been "significant progress" on the issue of unfreezing Iranian assets during recent negotiations, with relevant documents signed during this round of talks.
4. According to the US Treasury Department's website, a general license has been issued authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of crude oil, petrochemical products, and oil products sourced from Iran until August 21, 2026.
Stock News
1. Micron Technology (MU.O) shares jumped 5% in pre-market trading; the company has announced a strategic agreement with Anthropic to expand next-generation AI infrastructure.
2. SpaceX (SPCX.O) has initiated its first issuance of priority unsecured bonds, planning to use the net proceeds to pay off outstanding loans. Reports indicate that this issuance will raise at least $20 billion.
3. Microsoft (MSFT.O) has signed a 20-year power supply agreement with Chevron to provide natural gas-generated electricity for its Texas data center, which is expected to become one of the largest projects in the US.
4. Nvidia (NVDA.O) has launched "Halos for Robotics," the industry's first full-stack safety system for physical AI.
5. Apple (AAPL.O) is integrating Apple Intelligence into iOS 27 to take over users' daily experiences.
6. Meta Platforms (META.O) has appointed Kunal Shah from CRED as the new head of WhatsApp.
7. Market news: Google Cloud and Nokia (NOK.N) have announced a partnership to integrate Alphabet (GOOG.O)'s Gemini model into Nokia's security center.
8. S&P Dow Jones Indices previously announced that Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) and Flex will officially be included in the S&P 500 index on June 22.
9. Japan Oxygen has announced that starting July 2026, it will significantly raise the prices of all helium products in the Japanese market, including those used in critical areas such as semiconductor wafer cooling and medical-grade MRI equipment, with an average increase of over 30%. $BTC #SpaceX股价盘前跌4.6%

Tom Lee, the infinite bull, has flipped bearish. He believes we’re in a party before the big dip, and it’s still too early to short!

The real correction pain will hit in the second half of the year, with four major catalysts:

1⃣ Waller is currently pushing reforms at the Fed, and there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding their communication style. A major offensive could be launched in the second half of 2026, especially 1-2 months before the midterm elections to test the Fed.

2⃣ SpaceX currently has very few floating chips in the market (around $90 billion), but a phased unlocking could happen in the second half; coupled with the star IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI, the market is already pricing a trillion-dollar secondary market, which might suck up liquidity.

3⃣ Conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz will disrupt the global supply chain, and the ripple effects will become apparent in the second half.

4⃣ The most critical point is that as margin balances reach their peak, margin debt can't sustain itself, and the speculative bullets in the market will slowly run out, becoming the final straw that triggers selling pressure. $BTC #日本企业年金拟配1%加密资产

Tonight we have unemployment benefits dropping, and a few countries are holding their interest rate meetings.
Let's cut to the chase, brothers, I'm bearish tonight…$BTC #美联储维持利率3.5%-3.75%

Good news dropped, brothers! The hype around the war should chill out for a bit. Next up, we’re looking at interest rate cut expectations, so keep your eyes peeled on non-farm payrolls, unemployment claims, and PPI. Personally, I think we’re in for a long stretch of wide-ranging fluctuations. It’ll be a back-and-forth battle, and let's keep our long positions on ETH above 500 points and BTC above 10,000 points for some safety.
The timeline is likely to wrap up the last leg of this bear market around August. As we approach that month, we can't trade based on the fluctuation cycle anymore; there should be a significant drop coming. Everyone, stay sharp…$BTC #沃什聘保守派顾问促美联储改革

Overall, the dot plot is looking bearish...$BTC
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率

Hope the brothers all dodged this wave...$BTC #沃什首次FOMC维持利率

The world is closely watching Powell's words, tonight's speech will set the market
Hawkish tone pushes the dollar up, US bonds dive and stocks feel the chill
If he mentions tapering to fight inflation, gold gets pressured and funds scatter
If the tone is dovish, stocks and gold rise while the dollar weakens
Every word hides the market direction, positions need to be prepped in advance
$BTC $

Alright, fam, since 64500 didn’t hit, let’s just pass on that. After all, late love is worth less than grass. So, let’s drop it back to the breakout level, which is also where support and resistance flip. $BTC $BTC
#油轮转向中东待霍尔木兹重开

Looking at the 15-minute candlestick for Bitcoin, the Vegas channel has held up three times already without an effective breakdown. But this doesn't mean a bullish outlook; rather, I think the good news has already been priced in, and the upcoming time will bring bearish signals, like Japan's interest rate hike adjusted to 1%. Although it aligns with expectations, a rate hike is a solid reality.
Today, we also have the US crude oil inventory data coming out. If the inventory is below expectations, it will be bearish, as this would cause oil prices to rise, negatively impacting Bitcoin and gold. However, I personally expect that at this critical juncture in US-Iran talks, they won’t release data showing oil inventories below expectations—even if they need to fake it, they'll make the data look decent.
So here's how I'm preparing for the upcoming market:
First, if the data exceeds expectations, oil will drop or consolidate. Bitcoin and gold will rise, then we can leverage the momentum from the talks to boost market sentiment, potentially pushing Bitcoin to form a double top. At that point, I'll look to short with a target around 68,000 to 69,000, not exceeding the 70,000 round number.
Second, if the data aligns with expectations, we might continue in a consolidation phase for a while. If there are no new bullish signals after the market settles, I will also consider shorting, but the exact levels will depend on how things unfold.
Third, on a short-term basis, if Bitcoin drops back to the 64,500 level, I might look to long, but I’ll only aim for a small gain of around a thousand points—no greed here.
Lastly, just a side note, Ethereum has been showing stronger momentum these past few days, so if you're leaning towards going long, prioritize Ethereum. $BTC

Let me share my take on the future of Bitcoin's price action: to cut to the chase, I don't think $59k is the bottom of this bear market.
While crypto is still a macro asset, it actually acts as a valve for excess liquidity, which flows in through three channels: stablecoins, ETFs, and DAT (Digital Asset Treasury). Right now, none of these aspects are showing signs of reversal. DAT-managed assets have dropped from about $220 billion to around $140 billion, and aside from Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new funding has basically dried up. ETFs just set the record for the longest outflow since their inception, and last week showed no signs of a turning point. Stablecoin liquidity is following the same outflow trend.
Looking back at how the last cycle actually kicked off, there was a bottom and a recovery, but the real action began in early 2024 when the ETFs got approved, which was front-run and brought in capital. If the argument is to bounce back to $100k, the question is where that capital will come from; currently, institutions are on the sidelines while retail traders are busy trading leveraged ETFs and individual stocks. Before this trend reverses, trying to catch the bottom feels a bit premature. We need to see structural momentum changes in stablecoin minting/redeeming, ETF flows, and/or DAT activity.
I've always followed a principle: don't just listen to what the big players are saying, but watch what they're doing. Right now, I don't see them massively bottoming out, so in the long run, I believe $59k isn't the bottom. $BTC

In the past week, MSTR has once again scooped up $100 million worth of Bitcoin at a price of $63,000 each, acquiring a total of 1,587 BTC:native. As of now, MSTR holds a whopping 846,842 Bitcoins.
At the same time last week, MSTR also bolstered its cash reserves by another $100 million, bringing the total reserve amount to $1.1 billion, which means MSTR raised a cool $200 million last week.
Is this bullish? A lot of times, we only see what they want us to see. If you're a short-term speculator, their buys might not line your pockets. But if you're a long-term investor, rolling with them is definitely safer than going solo. $BTC

BTC bounced back 13.25% from a local low below $60K. The trigger was a preliminary ceasefire between the US and Iran, reigniting risk appetite in global markets.
This recovery pushed BTC back to around $67K on June 15. Underpinning this is a general relief for risk assets—easing geopolitical tensions have lowered oil prices, and market concerns over short-term inflation have also subsided.
Now, on the three-day candlestick chart, Bitcoin is flashing a potential double bottom reversal near the $60K support zone.
This is BTC's second time bouncing back from the $60K range in 2026. This same demand zone has held up during previous pullbacks, with buy pressure consistently defending here, making the double bottom logic more robust.
From a technical perspective, the weekly chart is forming a rare bullish divergence, which has only occurred three times historically, and each time it appeared, a trend reversal followed. Could this be the start of a bull market?
However, relying solely on technicals seems a bit shaky, and it indeed is, since the weekly divergence could continue to form. Simply put, if the market experiences a daily swing and breaks below $50K, returning to the weekly chart may very likely create a divergence similar to March’s action, so we shouldn't blindly chase longs based on this alone. But it has undoubtedly sent a signal that the market trend is slowly changing. The bottom is nearing formation, and a bull market is set to return soon…
$BTC #美国战略石油储备创1983年来新低

With expectations of interest rate hikes dwindling and positive vibes from peace talks, Bitcoin surged directly from a low of 59000 to a sweet 7000 points gain. If the peace talks finally materialize, we might see the upside capped. $BTC