Let me share my take on the future of Bitcoin's price action: to cut to the chase, I don't think $59k is the bottom of this bear market.
While crypto is still a macro asset, it actually acts as a valve for excess liquidity, which flows in through three channels: stablecoins, ETFs, and DAT (Digital Asset Treasury). Right now, none of these aspects are showing signs of reversal. DAT-managed assets have dropped from about $220 billion to around $140 billion, and aside from Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new funding has basically dried up. ETFs just set the record for the longest outflow since their inception, and last week showed no signs of a turning point. Stablecoin liquidity is following the same outflow trend.
Looking back at how the last cycle actually kicked off, there was a bottom and a recovery, but the real action began in early 2024 when the ETFs got approved, which was front-run and brought in capital. If the argument is to bounce back to $100k, the question is where that capital will come from; currently, institutions are on the sidelines while retail traders are busy trading leveraged ETFs and individual stocks. Before this trend reverses, trying to catch the bottom feels a bit premature. We need to see structural momentum changes in stablecoin minting/redeeming, ETF flows, and/or DAT activity.
I've always followed a principle: don't just listen to what the big players are saying, but watch what they're doing. Right now, I don't see them massively bottoming out, so in the long run, I believe $59k isn't the bottom. $BTC
While crypto is still a macro asset, it actually acts as a valve for excess liquidity, which flows in through three channels: stablecoins, ETFs, and DAT (Digital Asset Treasury). Right now, none of these aspects are showing signs of reversal. DAT-managed assets have dropped from about $220 billion to around $140 billion, and aside from Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new funding has basically dried up. ETFs just set the record for the longest outflow since their inception, and last week showed no signs of a turning point. Stablecoin liquidity is following the same outflow trend.
Looking back at how the last cycle actually kicked off, there was a bottom and a recovery, but the real action began in early 2024 when the ETFs got approved, which was front-run and brought in capital. If the argument is to bounce back to $100k, the question is where that capital will come from; currently, institutions are on the sidelines while retail traders are busy trading leveraged ETFs and individual stocks. Before this trend reverses, trying to catch the bottom feels a bit premature. We need to see structural momentum changes in stablecoin minting/redeeming, ETF flows, and/or DAT activity.
I've always followed a principle: don't just listen to what the big players are saying, but watch what they're doing. Right now, I don't see them massively bottoming out, so in the long run, I believe $59k isn't the bottom. $BTC