Looking at the 15-minute candlestick for Bitcoin, the Vegas channel has held up three times already without an effective breakdown. But this doesn't mean a bullish outlook; rather, I think the good news has already been priced in, and the upcoming time will bring bearish signals, like Japan's interest rate hike adjusted to 1%. Although it aligns with expectations, a rate hike is a solid reality.
Today, we also have the US crude oil inventory data coming out. If the inventory is below expectations, it will be bearish, as this would cause oil prices to rise, negatively impacting Bitcoin and gold. However, I personally expect that at this critical juncture in US-Iran talks, they won’t release data showing oil inventories below expectations—even if they need to fake it, they'll make the data look decent.
So here's how I'm preparing for the upcoming market:
First, if the data exceeds expectations, oil will drop or consolidate. Bitcoin and gold will rise, then we can leverage the momentum from the talks to boost market sentiment, potentially pushing Bitcoin to form a double top. At that point, I'll look to short with a target around 68,000 to 69,000, not exceeding the 70,000 round number.
Second, if the data aligns with expectations, we might continue in a consolidation phase for a while. If there are no new bullish signals after the market settles, I will also consider shorting, but the exact levels will depend on how things unfold.
Third, on a short-term basis, if Bitcoin drops back to the 64,500 level, I might look to long, but I’ll only aim for a small gain of around a thousand points—no greed here.
Lastly, just a side note, Ethereum has been showing stronger momentum these past few days, so if you're leaning towards going long, prioritize Ethereum. $BTC
Today, we also have the US crude oil inventory data coming out. If the inventory is below expectations, it will be bearish, as this would cause oil prices to rise, negatively impacting Bitcoin and gold. However, I personally expect that at this critical juncture in US-Iran talks, they won’t release data showing oil inventories below expectations—even if they need to fake it, they'll make the data look decent.
So here's how I'm preparing for the upcoming market:
First, if the data exceeds expectations, oil will drop or consolidate. Bitcoin and gold will rise, then we can leverage the momentum from the talks to boost market sentiment, potentially pushing Bitcoin to form a double top. At that point, I'll look to short with a target around 68,000 to 69,000, not exceeding the 70,000 round number.
Second, if the data aligns with expectations, we might continue in a consolidation phase for a while. If there are no new bullish signals after the market settles, I will also consider shorting, but the exact levels will depend on how things unfold.
Third, on a short-term basis, if Bitcoin drops back to the 64,500 level, I might look to long, but I’ll only aim for a small gain of around a thousand points—no greed here.
Lastly, just a side note, Ethereum has been showing stronger momentum these past few days, so if you're leaning towards going long, prioritize Ethereum. $BTC
