两栖韭菜

The Nasdaq plunged 2.86% on Friday, but futures have steadied tonight, with the Nasdaq up about 0.8% and the S&P 500 up about 0.5%. Bitcoin is still hovering around $78,000, though, up only about 0.3% in the past 24 hours—it hasn’t followed stocks higher at all.

My stance is clear: if Bitcoin isn’t moving, neither am I. That little bump in futures isn’t enough to make me change course.

Which side are you on? A: Ride the rebound with stocks tonight—get in first and figure it out later; B: If Bitcoin isn’t moving, stay put and wait for it to actually turn higher before following along?

$BTC

Anthropic is really asking for a lot this time: the new shares are being sold only to Japanese investors, with up to $3.5 billion to be raised in one go—more than the $2.2 billion SpaceX previously raised in Japan. The use of proceeds is spelled out plainly: it’s all going toward operating and capital expenditures. In other words, they’ll keep burning cash to secure computing power. The AI race now comes down to who has the deeper pockets. With this much money going up in smoke, will they ever make it back? Which side do you think the market will believe first?

Everything got crushed on Friday; energy was the only sector in the green, up 1.9%, and Exxon’s profit doubled.
I woke up today to oil prices down 3% right off the bat 👇
Brent is back around $110, while WTI has fallen to around $101. Iran and Qatar have been in talks for three days, and the market has already priced out some of the supply disruption premium. OPEC+ also said on Sunday that its December production target would remain unchanged.
Futures did edge up overnight: Nasdaq futures rose about 0.9%, and S&P 500 futures gained around 0.5%. It looks like a reprieve, not a reversal.
Put simply, energy stocks rose on Friday because of refining margins and the war premium, not because of oil prices themselves. Now that oil has pulled back today, that equation needs to be recalculated.
ISM manufacturing data are due tonight at 11 p.m., and Apple and Palantir report after the close. Whether these modest futures gains hold depends on those two events.
When it comes to oil prices, one word at the negotiating table can matter more than an earnings report.
$XOM $CVX

The liveliest action on the plaza today wasn’t in Bitcoin, but in the comments section for Ethereum.
One person said that if it holds this time, we’ll never see ETH below $2,400 again. Someone else immediately pushed back, saying the $2,300–$2,310 range is packed with people who got stuck holding from last time, so breaking through won’t be easy. They’re arguing fiercely, but it all comes down to the same question: has ETH really moved past this level?

Let’s start with the facts. This morning, ETH touched $2,311 on Binance spot, up 1.47% for the day, with a 24-hour high of $2,317.84. As I write this, the price has slipped back to hover around $2,300. That tells us one thing: touching a level and holding above it are two different things. The former is sentiment; the latter takes time and volume.

I have a simple rule of thumb for these round-number levels: don’t ask whether the price touched them—ask whether it can stay above them for a few days, then ask whether volume is keeping pace as it climbs. Moves higher on declining volume usually don’t go far; when the broader market weakens, these freshly reclaimed levels are the first to go. What’s more, Ethereum ETFs saw $1.61 billion in outflows in October alone—the worst monthly figure since they launched in 2024. Confidence takes much longer to rebuild than it does to destroy.

So I’d rather call this a recovery than a reversal. A recovery can still bring gains, but the biggest risk is chasing it as if it were a reversal.

Do you think ETH can hold above $2,300 this time, or are we in for another wick?

#EthereumBreaksAbove$2300
$ETH $BTC

South Korea is really putting its money where its mouth is this time: 21.3 trillion won is going toward AI and data centers, including 4.6 trillion won earmarked specifically for developing a homegrown, cutting-edge large AI model. It’s also planning to build a semiconductor cluster. Think about it: this isn’t just talk—it’s using public funds as leverage to compete with the U.S. for a say in computing power. The investment may not pay off right away, but the direction is clear: in this AI race, whoever controls the computing power has the louder voice. Whether the semiconductor cluster can keep up depends on how well these plans are implemented.

$EWY

Bitcoin climbed back to around 78,400 over the weekend, up a little over 1% in 24 hours. Ether also returned to around 2,290 👇
But look, a reversal is still a long way off: Friday just saw it hit a six-week low of a little over 76,000, and now it’s only crawled back about 3% from the bottom.
Leverage has gone completely quiet, though. Across the market, 24-hour liquidations on Sunday totaled just $64.2 million, with longs accounting for a little over half—nowhere near Friday’s massive volume.
I used to chase rallies on the very day they happened, and usually got hit with a second drop right after getting in.
There are two hurdles this week: Tuesday’s midterm elections and Friday’s jobs report. Let’s see if it can hold its ground first.

$BTC $ETH

The doors opened, and the first day’s numbers are in: over nine and a half hours, Binance processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals while taking in $1.01 billion in deposits, for a net outflow of $3.64 billion. Put simply, the numbers look alarming, but against its total assets of $171 billion, that’s just 2.1%. This isn’t a bank run; it’s a queue to withdraw money. Once the doors opened, those who wanted to leave went first, and after peaking, the volume has already started to fall.

What’s interesting is the other side of the equation: $1 billion was deposited that same day. Some withdrew their money, while others put theirs back in. Confidence has never been a one-way street. A third party put the figure at just over $4 billion using a 24-hour window. The windows are different, so don’t compare the figures directly.

One more thing to keep in mind: the denominator for that 2.1% is the proof of reserves from October 28, before the hack. An updated version is due out today, as planned, and the full verification won’t be ready until November 3. The books need to be checked line by line—there’s no need to rush to judgment.

The doors can open, money can move, and the books can be made public. Only when all three are in place have they passed the first test.

$BTC $BNB

Bitcoin spent all weekend hovering around $78,000 with no clear direction. The real action comes after the market closes tomorrow: Apple reports its Q4 earnings, with the market expecting EPS of about $1.99 and revenue of roughly $113.4 billion. It’ll also be the new CEO’s first earnings call. Put simply, meeting the numbers isn’t enough to win—if holiday-quarter guidance comes in low, the stock could still take a hit. I’d rather wait for the guidance before making a move; chasing the stock ahead of earnings is like providing exit liquidity for someone else. Time to pick a side: are you buying in before earnings, or waiting until guidance is out?

$AAPL $BTC

The national team is gearing up for another big move. Reports say a major state-owned bank plans to provide China Reform and China Chengtong with additional share buyback and stake-increase loan quotas worth hundreds of billions of yuan each, potentially as much as 100 billion yuan apiece—possibly exceeding the size of the first round in 2024. Put simply, this is ammunition for the market, except it’s money lent to the national team to buy shares. With the funds ready, will the market bite? $ASHR

The central bank switches its policy-rate anchor tomorrow, from the 7-day rate at 1.40% to the overnight rate at 1.25%. Put simply, the anchor is changing, but the price barely is: the October average for overnight DR001 was 1.2805%, close to the new anchor. This isn’t a rate cut; it’s correcting the clock to align with market rates. Don’t hear “anchor change” and immediately shout “liquidity flood”—first check whether money has actually become cheaper. $USDCNY

U.S. stocks are closed today, but something is happening in crypto. A quick update first. 👇
The first batch of Binance withdrawals will gradually reopen today from 2 to 5 p.m., starting with 15 networks. BTC is first, followed by ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, and DOGE, ordered by what people have been most eager to withdraw over the past week.
Put simply, replenishing funds to 95% is one thing; being able to withdraw them is another. This batch is here to test the latter—and with heavy traffic, you may have to wait in line.
Ten assets, including BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, and SOL, are said to be fully backed. The remaining 5% is mostly smaller coins that are harder to source; we’ll have to wait for the next batch to clear security checks. Before withdrawing, check the withdrawal page to see if your coin and network are included in the first batch. Don’t just click blindly.
Once the funds can move, that’s when this really starts to turn the page. Is your coin in the first batch?

$BTC $BNB

Just a couple of days ago, people were still arguing in the square: Was Binance’s $6 billion-plus loss an inside job or an outside attack? No need to argue now. On October 31, the FBI made it official: North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor stole more than $6 billion from Binance around October 29, making it the biggest heist in crypto history.

This time is different. Before, analytics firms made guesses based on on-chain traces. Now the FBI has issued a joint statement with the U.S. Secret Service and the IRS Criminal Investigation Division. The FBI also found that large amounts of the stolen funds are being converted into ETH, and will next be laundered through DeFi and instant exchanges. It also published a list of addresses: more than 600 ETH addresses, fewer than 20 BTC addresses, and one SOL address, calling on node operators, exchanges, and DeFi platforms to block them together.

Put simply, the official confirmation is just the beginning, not the end. The same group carried out a roughly $1.5 billion heist at Bybit last year, so they know the playbook well. Chainalysis also warned that the attackers have already used thousands of addresses and may split the funds across tens of thousands more in the coming weeks. The list may stop some of them, but not all.

Being visible on-chain doesn’t mean the funds can be frozen. Decentralization is usually about nobody being able to stop you. Now, with one word from the FBI, platforms have to choose sides: block the funds and put compliance controls in place, or refuse and go against law enforcement.

Knowing who did it is just the beginning. Whether the money can be stopped and whether platforms can prevent the next attack—that’s the real test.

#FBIConfirmsNorthKoreaResponsibleForBinanceTheft
$BTC $ETH $BNB

South Korea’s chip exports hit $56.4 billion in October, up 259% year over year, while total exports also rose 76.1% after adjusting for working days. Put simply, the AI chip shortage is real—it’s not just a story. But don’t take that 93.7% headline at face value: there were more working days, so the numbers naturally look better. The growth is real, but be cautious about chasing the rally. $EWY

The ETFs made the first move on Friday: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $643 million in a single day. BlackRock alone accounted for $234 million, and Fidelity for $201 million—wiping out the inflows from the previous four days in just one day 👇

Interestingly, the other side of the story is that the wave of liquidations has subsided. Friday’s liquidations of over $1.5 billion had fallen to around $400 million by Saturday, while Bitcoin’s own liquidation volume plunged by more than 80%.

Put simply, these weren’t the same group of people: leveraged traders were forced to sell by the market, while ETF investors chose to pull their money out. One was forced, the other voluntary—their levels of fear are completely different.

Bitcoin is still holding around $77,000. It dipped below $76,000, then climbed back up. Ethereum ETFs saw another $156 million in outflows on Friday, marking the fifth consecutive day.

When panic hits, the ones who run fastest aren’t always the ones who understand the most. Don’t you think?

$BTC $ETH

Bottom line first: Binance’s compensation effort has finally made visible progress as of this morning—the stolen assets have been replenished to 90%.

The 7,499 BTC from the SAFU fund arrived yesterday. It’s visible on-chain and worth about $581 million. Combined with the 80% already covered, the official figures say that the major coins—BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, and SOL—have been fully replenished. The remaining 10% consists of smaller, less liquid coins that are still being gradually sourced on and off the market.

Put simply, there are two sides to this: the funds have been replenished, but that doesn’t mean the matter is settled. Withdrawals are still unavailable. The official statement says they’ll resume in phases today, but there’s no firm word yet on exactly when or which coins will be included in each batch. A target is just a target—don’t assume withdrawals are available until they actually go live.

There’s another date worth noting: the October 31 proof-of-reserves snapshot has been taken, and the full proof will be released on November 3. Holders of those ten major coins will then be able to verify the 1:1 backing for themselves. Only once that checks out can we really call this settled.

The Fear and Greed Index is still at 35. It’s understandable to be nervous, but let’s get the numbers straight first.

$BTC $BNB

BTC is around 77.5k tonight. It dipped as low as 76.3k during the day, right around the 200-day moving average, then bounced back. Put simply, this line represents the average cost over most of the past six months: staying above it means the trend is still intact; break below it, and we’ll have to tell a different story. I’m leaning toward it holding. It’s bounced off this line plenty of times amid panic, but if it really breaks here, there won’t be much of a safety net below. Pick a side tonight: are you betting it holds the 200-day MA, or that it breaks by the weekend?

$BTC

AWS revenue rose 39% this quarter, its fastest growth in five years. The cloud business is really delivering. But over the past 12 months, free cash flow plunged to negative $42.4 billion, after being positive $14.8 billion a year ago. Put simply, the same company is making money and burning money at the same time. Even a good business can burn cash—the key is whether it has enough runway.
$AMZN