Let’s put the conclusion first: today was a day to catch our breath, not a day to turn things around. Bitcoin moved back and forth between $77,700 and $78,800 during the day, and was still just above $78,000 when this was written, with moves of less than 1% either way. ETH briefly touched $2,311 in the morning before returning to around $2,300. The Fear and Greed Index is at 37, still in fear territory. That’s a slight improvement from yesterday’s 34, but nowhere near the point where people can confidently declare victory.
The main story in crypto today is still the fallout from the Binance situation. Withdrawals have opened on the first 15 networks. According to the official figures for the first window: over nine and a half hours, $4.649 billion was withdrawn and $1.01 billion was deposited, for a net outflow of $3.64 billion—2.1% of total assets worth $171 billion. The amount withdrawn looks alarming, but compared with the overall pool, it’s only a drop in the bucket. More importantly, Binance itself said that once the initial rush to withdraw had passed, withdrawal volumes had fallen, while deposits remained substantial. The doors are open and funds can move—that step has gone smoothly.
But don’t take this to mean the story is over. The 10 largest coins are said to be fully covered, and the affected assets have been replenished to around 95% overall. The remaining 5% consists of smaller, less liquid coins that take longer to buy. The proof-of-reserves snapshot taken on October 31 is one thing; the full zero-knowledge proof won’t be released until November 3. Until then, it’s too early to treat the snapshot as final verification. Also, the dollar value of reserves reported by third-party trackers moves with coin prices, so don’t count that figure as the amount of money withdrawn.
On the ETF front, we only got the full picture of Friday’s flows today. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $643 million in outflows on Friday, their largest single-day outflow since June. That wiped out the $441 million in inflows accumulated from Monday to Thursday, leaving the week with net outflows of $203 million. ETH ETFs saw $156 million in outflows on Friday and $432 million for the week. October’s outflows totaled $1.61 billion, making it their worst month since launch. Put simply, it’s not that institutions have lost confidence; they’re reducing their risk exposure for now and waiting for things to settle. These figures explain why prices couldn’t gain traction over the weekend: buyers showed up in the spot market, but ETF investors were heading for the exits. The two sides offset each other, leaving prices range-bound.
First, a note on timing for U.S. stocks: after the switch to standard time, the U.S. market opens at 10:30 p.m. Beijing time. It hasn’t opened yet tonight as I write this, so this isn’t a recap of today’s close. What we can review is last Friday: the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580, the Nasdaq dropped 2.86% to 25,437, and the Dow declined 1.09% to 51,770. The catalyst was Intel: a weak outlook sent its shares down 28.6% in a single day, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 7.2%. The Nasdaq fell 5.3% for all of October, its worst month since March 2025, while the Dow actually gained 1.7%. In the same month, tech took a beating while traditional sectors held up. That was more or less the story behind last Friday’s market results.
There are two other developments from earlier today worth noting. Oil prices first fell about 3%, with Brent back near $110 and WTI near $101, cooling the energy sector, which was the only sector to finish in the green last Friday. South Korea was also in the spotlight today, with news about AI investment continuing to make waves. But that was covered in the midday segment, so I won’t go into it again here.
There’s a packed schedule of things to watch tonight and tomorrow. Here are three key items. First, at 11:00 p.m. Beijing time, the U.S. October ISM Manufacturing Index is due. The market expects it to come in around 54.6, versus 54.5 previously, keeping it above the expansion threshold. The prices component is worth watching more closely than the headline figure, as it could affect whether rate-cut expectations get pushed back again. Second, after the U.S. market closes, Apple and Palantir will report earnings. The market expects Apple revenue of around $113.3 billion and earnings per share of about $1.98, while Palantir revenue is expected to come in around $2.18 billion. The key things to watch are Apple’s guidance for the December quarter and its memory-cost outlook. The results won’t be out until around the early hours of Tuesday Beijing time, so we’ll cover them in detail in tomorrow morning’s segment; for now, these are just the expectations. Third, there are the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday local time and October’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Both will extend volatility through the week; this isn’t a story that can be wrapped up in a day.
The bottom line: crypto is waiting for trust to return, while U.S. stocks are waiting for earnings to show that all the money being poured into AI is paying off. Neither side is at a point where we can draw firm conclusions. Don’t be fooled by a single day of sideways trading, and don’t be spooked by a week of losses. Keep some powder dry and reassess after tonight’s data and earnings are out.
Focus on tonight’s data and earnings first; don’t rush to conclusions.