烤鸡翅

“The New Plaza Agreement” is no longer clickbait—it has gotten its first real-money installment.

The U.S. and Japan team up to buy yen, and the USD/JPY pair is smashed down from above 163 to around 155. Why did the U.S. step in? I think it’s not to save Japan, but to protect its own U.S. Treasury market.

If Tokyo were to defend the yen on its own, the most direct ammunition would be its dollar reserves. Once the market believes Japan will sell U.S. Treasuries to buy yen, yields on long-term U.S. debt could run out of control again. Washington would rather help buy yen now than deal with the U.S. Treasuries that Japan might dump later.

Even more dangerous is the yen carry trade. In the past, people who borrowed low-interest yen to buy U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC now face yen appreciation alongside asset declines at the same time. When margin is tightened, what gets sold is often not the yen itself, but the assets in hand that are easiest to liquidate.

I’m on the side of tightening liquidity. Once USD/JPY breaks below 155, deleveraging could accelerate; if it climbs back above 160, I’ll change my tune.

In this round, will the first thing to be dumped be U.S. Treasuries, tech stocks, or BTC? $BTC #Macro

Panic over yen appreciation has begun to hit global assets.

The US and Japan have already confirmed they will work together to buy yen, and the USD/JPY rate, which was above 163, briefly fell to around 155. The market has started calling it a “new version of the Plaza Accord.” The name may be dramatic, but the funding chain is very real.

Over the past decades, the cheapest global money has been: borrow yen, buy US stocks, buy US Treasuries, and hold dollar assets. Now Japan’s interest-rate center of gravity has shifted higher, and the yen has also been forcibly pushed up by official action. Carry trades are squeezed on both ends: the assets haven’t even fallen yet, but margin starts to hurt first; once there’s a concentrated unwinding of yen positions, global leverage has to contract.

What’s even more troublesome is that Japan’s large foreign-exchange reserves correspond to a large amount of US Treasuries. Tokyo may not immediately sell long-dated Treasuries—Japan’s Ministry of Finance says there is still cash, maturing funds, and interest available—but once the market starts pricing in “Japan might sell Treasuries to save the yen,” the long end of US Treasuries will become more fragile.

So I won’t rush to announce “Bretton Woods 2.0,” but I will watch 155 and 160: if 155 breaks again, carry-trade liquidations may accelerate; if 160 reclaims the level, the panic will count as cooling down.

For BTC, this isn’t just FX gossip—it’s a matter of tightening global US-dollar liquidity. $BTC #Macro

The condition I set this morning was: if it breaks below 63010, and the position is still rising, then risk will be upgraded.

The afternoon’s execution was very decisive. BTC’s low was 62300, down by about 1.1%; yet the open positions volume increased by 1.6%. The trouble with this kind of market is that the first round of decline hasn’t shaken everyone out.

If 62300 can’t hold, I’ll first look at the earlier 62275; if you want me to change my mind, at least reclaim 63010 first.$BTC #BTC

I made it very clear last night: only when 63634 holds is it considered strong—pushing down and continuing to hold long to make price rise is crowded.

As it happened, BTC’s high reached 63796, but I only captured a move of $162; then it fell back to 63200. Open interest actually increased by 0.38%, and the funding rate was raised to 0.01%.

I won’t chase this long upper wick. If 63634 can’t be reclaimed, then last night’s breakout can only be considered a test.$BTC #BTC

In the morning, I interpreted that drop as “first reduce leverage, then pull back.” During the day, I only accepted half of the data.

BTC pushed up to 63,634 but didn’t hold and fell back to around 63,200. What’s even more troublesome is that open interest increased by about 0.3% again, and the funding rate rose from 0.0049% to 0.0091%. The price hasn’t moved far, but the cost of going long has already gone up.

This isn’t yet a signal to flip short, but it’s no longer suitable to chase. Tonight I’m watching 63,634: only a volume-backed hold above it counts as real strength. If it keeps getting suppressed below and positions keep building, then leverage is squeezing back into a narrow alley. $BTC #BTC

Last night BTC really broke 62466, but the shorts didn’t get the result they wanted.

At dawn the low was 62275. Yet overnight open interest actually dropped by 0.37%, and the price climbed back to 63000. What I was worried about yesterday was “a breakdown followed by adding leverage.” What actually happened was the opposite: first leverage was being cleared, and then the price was reclaimed.

So I have to change my wording: right now it looks more like a leverage-clearing washout rather than an accelerating selloff. If 62275 is lost again, and open interest rises back up, that’s when I’ll raise the danger level again. $BTC #BTC

BTC is down 2%, and the real trouble hasn’t left yet.

$BTC has already returned to 63028. Over the past 4 hours, two moving averages are being capped around 63745 and 64184; however, the open interest in the futures market is still 3.2% higher than it was 7 days ago, and the funding rate is still positive.

In plain terms, the car is going downhill, but the people inside haven’t really gotten off.

If 62466 breaks again, and positions continue stacking up, I’ll first hedge against leverage getting squeezed. On the other hand, if BTC can reclaim and hold above 64200, then this concern can be dismissed even if I was wrong.

What the market fears most isn’t the drop—it’s what happens after the drop, when many people refuse to get off the train.#BTC

Actually, many altcoins have clearly shown increased volume at the bottom this time.
This phenomenon is worth paying attention to.
When people see increased volume, they often get scared, thinking someone is about to dump.
But volume in the bottom region often isn't just about offloading; it could also mean that the chips are being redistributed.
You can look back at $BTC when we were near 15800.
At that time, there was also a long period of high volume, and the price seemed stagnant, but in reality, the chips were quietly changing hands.
A real bull market often doesn't start when everyone is excited.
It usually begins in the most boring, doubtful, and disbelieving moments, as the bottom chips are slowly rotated out.
So if this bull market really kicks off, the altcoin rally might be bigger than many expect.
But the issue is, you can't just buy any altcoin and expect to profit.
If you don't know how to pick, it's better to stick with Ethereum.
Because once $ETH truly starts to reverse, it usually won't give too many people comfortable entry opportunities.
Right now, many are still hesitating, waiting for lower prices, or complaining that the market hasn't confirmed.
But the harsh reality of the market is this:
By the time you understand what's happening, the price is often no longer where it used to be.
So my current thought is simple:
Increased volume at the bottom is worth noting.
Altcoins can start being seriously filtered.
If you can't filter, don't pretend to be clever; just stick to ETH, the core asset.

Heads up, heads up!!

I took a look at last year's bear market structure today and found something that looks pretty similar.

Back then, BTC also climbed above EMA150, touched that line, then started to rebound, pushing up near the previous highs but never really breaking through, then it went back down.

And the current state is somewhat similar.

Just like it rebounded after hitting key support, it's also failed to effectively break through the previous highs; if it continues to drop from here, I can't keep telling myself it's just a 'normal pullback'.

The market won't simply copy itself, but it often brings out similar props.

That's what I'm most cautious about right now.

If BTC really breaks below key support and the rebound doesn't reclaim that level, then it's time for me to exit my longs, and I'll start to defend my spot positions.
Especially with altcoins.
Coins like TAO and VIRTUAL that have already seen significant gains, once BTC's structure deteriorates, they won't care about your feelings.
At that point, it's not about believing in a bull market; it's about having risk management.

BTC is at 81000, and those old altcoins like $XRP $SOL and $VIRTUAL Ai are still just gathering dust in their territory. So in the crypto space, if you're bullish on BTC, that's where to focus. Altcoins really don't matter; when they drop, they crash harder than each other, and when they pump, they still can't keep up with the big dog, Bitcoin.

Don't short here, take a look at this segment; there's still acceleration to come, and we haven't hit the shorting zone yet.

Right now, at this level for Bitcoin, I prefer to view it as the early stages of a minor bullish structure.
On the hourly chart, let's see if we can break through 78900 with some volume; the key is not just a quick spike, but whether we can close above it on the 4-hour candle.
If we manage to hold above that and the body of the candle doesn't break below 78200 on a retracement, then this structure remains intact, and the bulls have a chance to push higher.
I'm eyeing the range between 81200 and 82000 up top.
However, the real frustrating part here isn't the levels but the timing.
Before the breakout, many people hesitate to enter.
Once it breaks out, they're scared of chasing the price.
When it retraces, they doubt it's not a false breakout. As long as you keep a solid stop loss and have a plan, it's a meaningful trade.
In the end, if the market really goes bullish, the first ones to get left behind are usually those waiting for the 'perfect confirmation.'
So my thoughts are straightforward:
Before we hold above 78900, no reckless entries.
Once we hold above that, as long as 78200 holds, don't get easily scared off by a retracement.

After climbing out of that pit at 75000, BTC is now hovering around the 78k mark.
But to be honest, price isn't my main concern.

What I'm really focused on is who’s selling and who’s holding after we dipped to that level.

A few numbers are quite interesting.
The total BTC in exchanges is at a multi-year low. The implication is simple:
When the price crashed, the whales weren't in a rush to move their coins to exchanges to dump.
The same goes for the US spot ETF.
Institutions aren't just talking about allocation; they're genuinely holding BTC in custody. BlackRock's IBIT has seen strong inflows lately, which at least proves one thing: this cash isn't just here to shout slogans.
The most ironic part is that retail traders are fixated on the price.
At 78k now, we’re still far from the previous high, so many think the market lacks momentum, feel the need to wait, and are even hoping for lower prices.
But often, the market doesn’t reveal answers through price first.
It’s the chips that tell you first.
Price can be frustrating, candlesticks can deceive, and sentiment can change three times a day.
But if on-chain data shows that coins aren't flooding back to exchanges and the ETF is still accumulating, that at least indicates this doesn't look like a real top.
Of course, the macro situation isn't that rosy either.
Easing tariffs is a positive, and employment data looks decent; but rate cuts haven’t come, and GDP isn’t looking great. So, we find ourselves in this tight spot: unable to move up, yet not dropping significantly.
This is the most tormenting phase.
Retail is fixated on price, feeling it's not strong enough.
Institutions are focused on the chips, gradually taking their positions.

What's interesting right now is that a lot of folks are waiting for a "proper retest."
People keep saying it needs to dip back around 2050 at least to be healthy.
No pullbacks feel uncomfortable; it’s unreasonable not to get a chance.
But when has the market ever been about what's "reasonable"?
Think back—during a downturn, it often just tanks without giving you a bounce or a comfortable exit.
So why should an uptrend have to give you a perfect retrace to hop on board?
Many people’s so-called "waiting for a retest" is essentially just a mental comfort for not having entered.
The issue is, when this expectation starts to become a consensus, the market is more likely to take the opposite route:
No looking back, just pushing forward.
What will happen then?
Those waiting for a dip might never get it,
and in the meantime, they can’t resist chasing,
and once they chase, it triggers a shakeout,
and then it heads up.
It’s not that a retrace can’t happen; it’s just that—
the pullback may not occur at the price point you’re ready for.

So rather than fixating on a specific level, think about this:
If it really doesn’t give you that retest, will you just watch it rise? $BTC

First, wait for $DOGE to stay above the moving average and then pull back to the moving average. After that, we should see a big trend. For spot trading, don't make frequent moves; play the swings, or you might miss out. The moving averages are starting to converge, with EMA21 and EMA60 coming together. We need to wait for a strong bullish candle to break through EMA150, which is around 0.0118, then pull back to around 0.011 before pushing up again.

Right now, this structure looks more like it's building momentum. The short-term moving averages are clustering together, which usually indicates that the direction hasn't been chosen yet, but it's about to move.
The ideal scenario is:
First, have a decisive upward move that breaks through that key moving average, confirming to the market that 'someone is buying';
Then, provide a pullback, giving those who hesitated a chance to jump in;
And then make a second move.
But here's the issue. Many people either didn't buy during the first move or got shaken out before the second move.
Either they left early because they thought it wasn't moving;
Or they sold too soon after a small rally, thinking it was enough;
Then when the trend really starts, they can’t resist chasing at higher prices.

In the crypto space, if you only know Bitcoin and Ethereum, it's really not a big deal.
In fact, many times, that’s already enough.
No matter how pretty the altcoin's candlestick patterns are or how sexy the story sounds, I find it hard to get excited. Because the real challenge with altcoins isn't buying in; it's figuring out when the narrative ends, when to bounce, and when it’s just a scheme painted by the whales. (Though I did pick up some Form, Doge, Tao, Virtual)
The average trader often overestimates their ability to pick the strongest altcoin from the pile.
But the reality is:
When prices are climbing, they hesitate to chase; when prices drop, they hesitate to average down; when it finally pumps, they can’t hold on. In the end, after all that hustle, it’s better to just stick with core assets.
What’s with the 800, 500, 1000? Sounds smart, but when it comes down to it, you might not even dare to buy.
Because what you’re really waiting for isn’t the price.
You’re waiting for a position that doesn’t scare you at all.
But when has the market ever given you that kind of position?
Too many smart traders often miss out on big gains.
Because they always want to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
In the end, they’re too scared to buy low and too reluctant to sell high.

Here's an interesting angle.

Have you noticed that the new candlestick charts on Binance don't look as 'wild' as before?
The same price movement, when you check it out on the current chart, seems pretty tame.
But if you switched back to the old ratios, it would probably look like an insane rally.
This is actually quite intriguing.
It's not that the market has cooled off; rather—
the volatility you're seeing has been 'squashed.'
The result is that people might underestimate the market action.
When prices rise, it feels manageable, not too crazy.
A little pullback makes folks start to doubt.
But by the time you catch on, the price is already at a higher level.
Many think they're waiting for a more comfortable entry,
but in reality, they're being lulled into complacency by this 'not-so-dramatic price action.'
So the issue isn't whether the main bullish wave has arrived.
If the market truly starts to move, you might not even feel how strong it is.

What a joke, it shot up in a day, and then in just one 4H candlestick it dropped straight down. Sure, in the crypto world you can long or short and make or lose money, but let's be real, the vibe when it’s crashing is never as good as when it’s pumping!!!

Honestly, what I'm really worried about isn't just the Bitcoin pullback itself.

It's if Bitcoin starts to correct on the daily chart and the Nasdaq also spikes and pulls back at the same time, that would be pretty rough.

Because once these two start to weaken together, it's no longer just a crypto issue.
You can really feel the money getting cautious.

At that point, Bitcoin might not crash suddenly, but it will be a real grind.
There will definitely be some bounces, but those bounces might not hold, just like the last couple of days where it pops up and then people bail out. As for altcoins, forget it—once liquidity gets pulled, it’s tough for everyone.

So I think right now, don’t just focus on one price point, like 65000, 75000, or 76000.
The real problem is if this wave down breaks the market sentiment, the crypto ecosystem will get worse.

You’ll see many coins not just plummet in a day but bounce back with no buyers, while they drop with sellers piling in, slowly grinding people down to the point where they don’t even want to check the charts.

That’s the most frustrating part.

It’s not just about a dip being scary,
It’s when you think it’s going to bounce at $BTC , and it just gets pushed back down.

So moving forward, I'll be keeping a close eye on two things:

Can Bitcoin hold its ground?
And will the Nasdaq spike and then pull back?

If both have issues, this won’t just be a regular pullback.
It could easily turn into a market that feels completely barren. #BTC跌破$77K