The big coin has already reported 76,985.9, and Ethereum is also at 2,467.98, but the just-finished 4 hours did not close at any of these levels. The most worth paying attention to is this current rally: can it truly reclaim the overhead pressure that previously surged through but failed to hold? For now, I’m not chasing—both coins still haven’t confirmed any new 4-hour breakout.
Ethereum is more deserving of close scrutiny. The new candle’s low is 2,426.26, higher than the previous one’s 2,423.47; however, its high dropped from 2,454.88 down to 2,448.56, and the close slipped from 2,443.54 to 2,441.48. The up-and-down fluctuations have narrowed, which suggests the old pressure area still has bids absorbing—yet buyers haven’t pushed the price upward strongly enough to lift the lows, so you can’t just label it as a reversal.
The 2,429.99 level mentioned in the last post was broken through again during the session this time, but the price still closed back above it. That means the earlier assessment about support/absorption hasn’t been invalidated. Still, resistance above at 2,445.57 wasn’t reclaimed; afterwards there were two actual highs at 2,447.81 and 2,454.88. By complete closing prices, the first resistance is only about $4 away—roughly 0.10 times ATR14 (about 40.4). This kind of room isn’t worth taking risks for.
Volume hasn’t provided confidence to chase. Ethereum’s latest fully formed candle has only 0.49 times the average volume of the previous 20 candles, down from 0.53 times the previous one; and the ratio of the total volume of the recent 6 candles versus the prior 6 has fallen from 0.86 to 0.80. A low-volume consolidation can continue to be observed, but you can’t conclude from that alone that sellers’ supply has been exhausted. The close is still below the EMA20 (around 2,444), and EMA20 is still below EMA50 (around 2,464). RSI14 is about 47, and momentum is still not in a clearly bullish advantage state.
If I’m going to get long, I’ll wait for this intraday upswing to play out into a full close: first, see whether it can close back over these nearby resistance levels, then watch whether the pullback can hold. If it returns near 2,429.99, I’ll still wait for the selloff to stop dipping and for the price to reclaim—then reassess the upside room. If it closes back below that level again, I’ll abandon this support-holding thesis and won’t move the defensive level lower.
For the big coin, the new closing price is 76,448.2, which is $14.2 higher than the previous one. The latest high at 76,744.8 is slightly higher, but the close is still below the original observation resistance of 76,543.7 — about 0.11 ATR away. Just crossing intraday doesn’t mean it’s established. EMA20 is around 76,572, still below EMA50 around 77,172. RSI14 is about 46, and the rebound structure hasn’t changed materially.
The big coin’s single-candle volume ratio rebounded from 0.38 to 0.52, but the total volume over the last 6 candles is still only 0.69—there hasn’t been sustained expansion to push forward. First, wait for 76,543.7 to be reclaimed and for price to pull back and hold. Then we can look at 76,744.8—don’t jump directly to 77,493.8. Major support still continues to use 75,866; if it closes back below and breaks it again, I’ll temporarily not enter. The current quote looks stronger, but the conditions for going long still need to be confirmed by the close and a successful pullback.
$BTC $ETH
Ethereum is more deserving of close scrutiny. The new candle’s low is 2,426.26, higher than the previous one’s 2,423.47; however, its high dropped from 2,454.88 down to 2,448.56, and the close slipped from 2,443.54 to 2,441.48. The up-and-down fluctuations have narrowed, which suggests the old pressure area still has bids absorbing—yet buyers haven’t pushed the price upward strongly enough to lift the lows, so you can’t just label it as a reversal.
The 2,429.99 level mentioned in the last post was broken through again during the session this time, but the price still closed back above it. That means the earlier assessment about support/absorption hasn’t been invalidated. Still, resistance above at 2,445.57 wasn’t reclaimed; afterwards there were two actual highs at 2,447.81 and 2,454.88. By complete closing prices, the first resistance is only about $4 away—roughly 0.10 times ATR14 (about 40.4). This kind of room isn’t worth taking risks for.
Volume hasn’t provided confidence to chase. Ethereum’s latest fully formed candle has only 0.49 times the average volume of the previous 20 candles, down from 0.53 times the previous one; and the ratio of the total volume of the recent 6 candles versus the prior 6 has fallen from 0.86 to 0.80. A low-volume consolidation can continue to be observed, but you can’t conclude from that alone that sellers’ supply has been exhausted. The close is still below the EMA20 (around 2,444), and EMA20 is still below EMA50 (around 2,464). RSI14 is about 47, and momentum is still not in a clearly bullish advantage state.
If I’m going to get long, I’ll wait for this intraday upswing to play out into a full close: first, see whether it can close back over these nearby resistance levels, then watch whether the pullback can hold. If it returns near 2,429.99, I’ll still wait for the selloff to stop dipping and for the price to reclaim—then reassess the upside room. If it closes back below that level again, I’ll abandon this support-holding thesis and won’t move the defensive level lower.
For the big coin, the new closing price is 76,448.2, which is $14.2 higher than the previous one. The latest high at 76,744.8 is slightly higher, but the close is still below the original observation resistance of 76,543.7 — about 0.11 ATR away. Just crossing intraday doesn’t mean it’s established. EMA20 is around 76,572, still below EMA50 around 77,172. RSI14 is about 46, and the rebound structure hasn’t changed materially.
The big coin’s single-candle volume ratio rebounded from 0.38 to 0.52, but the total volume over the last 6 candles is still only 0.69—there hasn’t been sustained expansion to push forward. First, wait for 76,543.7 to be reclaimed and for price to pull back and hold. Then we can look at 76,744.8—don’t jump directly to 77,493.8. Major support still continues to use 75,866; if it closes back below and breaks it again, I’ll temporarily not enter. The current quote looks stronger, but the conditions for going long still need to be confirmed by the close and a successful pullback.
$BTC $ETH
