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#美军称霍尔木兹海峡开放 8July crude oil continues a two-day decline. The U.S. Central Command confirmed that the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz remains open to merchant ships. Combined with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks that an “opening agreement” could possibly be reached in the next two days, market concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern supply quickly cooled. The geopolitical risk premium was mostly unwound. NYMEX WTI (CL) for the September contract fell 5.7% on the day to $75.77. ICE Brent (BZ) for the October contract dropped 5.3% to $79.36. The cumulative two-day declines were both close to 10%. Shanghai crude oil (SC) followed the weaker overseas market.

Short term 📉 slightly bearish: Until the expectations for the agreement are fully disconfirmed, safe-haven buying continues to withdraw. CTA trend funds’ long positions have fallen from 73% to 36%, and technical selling pressure remains.

Medium to long term depends on supply-demand and negotiations: If the Strait fully resumes passage and Iran’s production increase returns, Brent could test the $60–65 range, 📉 slightly bearish. But if the agreement keeps running into setbacks, demining progress is obstructed, or OPEC+ deepens production cuts, the risk premium may reignite and oil prices 📈 may turn bullish. At present, SC, CL, and BZ are moving in sync. It’s recommended to treat them as trading within a range and consider selling at highs and buying at lows, until the Strait’s actual traffic volume substantially returns to pre-war levels.#原油延续两日跌势
$CL
$BZ

The U.S. says the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and the main reason is that, under Oman's mediation, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran around temporary navigation arrangements have made substantive progress: the U.S. has listed “restoring full navigation through the strait” as the top priority goal of the first phase. Draft agreements have been circulated among all parties. The southern route was already kept open and assisted by the U.S. military for more than a thousand vessels to pass through. At the same time, Iran and Oman reached an understanding on the new route—“enter the Persian Gulf via the northern line and exit the Arabian Sea via the southern line.” A temporary package that includes fee waivers for 60 days and mine-clearing for 30 days is close to being finalized. In other words, the restoration of navigation is the result of diplomatic negotiations and a trade of interests, not simply a victory of military deterrence.

The futures market reacted directly: after WTI crude CL plunged 5.7% on Tuesday, it made a slight rebound; Brent moved lower in tandem. The geopolitical risk premium was quickly unwound. Heating oil HO and Henry Hub natural gas NG also fell along with the energy complex.

In the short term, expectations of the agreement are suppressing the risk premium, so CL and BZ are both trending📉. However, the agreement has not yet been officially signed, actual navigation volumes are still far below pre-conflict levels, and Iran has explicitly said it “will never return to a wartime state.” Execution of the new route may still face uncertainties.

For the medium to long term, the assessment is that CL/BZ will remain choppy but weak📉, driven more by seasonal supply and demand than by unilateral chasing of short positions. #美军称霍尔木兹海峡开放
$CL
$BZ

The MSCI Asia Pacific index has recently hit a fresh high since mid-July, driven mainly by three forces: the U.S. June CPI year-over-year fell to 3.5% and the month-over-month figure turned negative for the first time in six years; expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes dropped sharply, prompting a broad repair across global risk assets; and strong AI chip earnings—shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix surged more than 25% in a single day, with South Korea’s KOSPI soaring 17% to lead the rally, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 4.3% on the day. At the same time, Japanese authorities stepped back into the FX market again, supporting the yen in the short term.

On the flows front, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) closely tracks Japan’s large-cap stocks, while the CME Nikkei 225 futures (NIY/NKD) also moved higher. South Korea’s KOSPI 200 futures rose by 5%, triggering the Sidecar mechanism.

Short term 📈: AI trading alerts have been lifted, short-covering and a rebound in chip demand have aligned, and Asia-Pacific risk appetite continues to recover.

Long term 📉: The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury is at its highest level since 2007. Foreign investors’ net selling of Asian stocks in May totaled $24.75 billion. Growth stocks in markets such as South Korea and Taiwan are highly sensitive to rising interest rates. Once the combination of "higher Treasury yields + the Fed tightening in a substantive way" is realized, the structural rally currently driven by AI and liquidity will face repricing. It is advisable to reduce exposure to overvalued chip-related names on strength and shift toward fundamentally resilient, cash-flow-stable targets.

August crude oil falls sharply for a second consecutive day. WTI’s September contract (CL) plunged 5.69% on August 4 to $75.77, while the Brent October contract (B) fell 5.26% to $79.36—both days’ cumulative losses are close to 10%.

The main driver is the rapid unwinding of the geopolitical premium: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that he is in active talks with Iran; Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “no later than tomorrow”; and Iran also made progress with Oman on safe navigation routes. Market panic over a potential supply disruption was concentrated and released. On top of that, OPEC’s July output increased by 1.16 million barrels per day month-on-month. CTA trend funds cut back on Brent longs, further amplifying the selloff.

📉 Short term (1–4 weeks): Negotiations over navigation through the strait may still see twists and turns. Iran denies any “restoration to the way it was.” Oil prices may trade in a weak, broad range of $73–85, with a bearish bias.

📉 Medium to long term: The two key factors—OPEC+ production increases being implemented and soft global demand—remain unchanged. Oil’s central tendency is under pressure. Unless the Middle East conflict escalates fully and triggers a pulse-like rebound 📈, it will be difficult to see sustained strong gains.

Crude oil futures CL/BZ, energy sector ETFs (XLE), U.S. oil fund USO. #原油延续两日跌势 $BZ
$CL
$USO.ETF

Gold rises for the third consecutive day: London gold spot prices have broken above the $4,100 per ounce level, climbing another ~1.17% on the day 📈. The key logic behind this surge is not safe-haven demand, but a chain reaction: "geopolitical easing → oil price plunges → cooling inflation expectations → Fed rate-hike expectations converge → US dollar weakens." Specifically, Iran–U.S. are nearing a temporary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude fell 6.08%; the pullback in energy prices eases inflation pressure; US Treasury yields and the US dollar decline in tandem; the cost of holding gold falls, and buy-side demand floods in.

In related assets, COMEX Gold front-month (XAU) 📈, the US stock SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) 📈, and Newmont Mining (NEM) 📈 all strengthen in sync.

Short term 📈: Technically, the RSI and MACD are biased bullish, and gold may test resistance at $4,135–$4,140. If the Hormuz deal is formally finalized and oil prices stabilize, a move above the $4,200 mark could be on the cards. However, note that gold has been trading in a range between $4,000 and $4,200 for more than a month; as long as it has not firmly broken above $4,200, it is still considered range-bound trading.

Longer term 📈 as the main theme, with hidden 📉 downside pressure: In Q2, global central banks net-bought 289 tonnes of gold, up 62% year over year. China has increased holdings for 20 straight months, and the Bank of Korea restarted gold purchases for the first time in 13 years.

The medium-to-long term pricing center of gravity is being supported 📈; but if US inflation data comes in hotter than expected and the Fed turns hawkish again, higher real yields would put pressure on non-yielding gold 📉. In terms of trading, it is advisable to buy on pullbacks and avoid chasing higher prices above $4,100. #黄金连涨第三日
$XAU
$XAG

SpaceX (SPCX) released its first quarterly earnings report after the close on August 4: Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year; adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion, up 191% year over year. Starlink users doubled to 12 million, and AI business revenue surged 247%—the fundamentals are nothing short of explosive 📈.

But after-hours, the stock price fell by more than 7% 📉, mainly because the cash burn is getting too intense: quarterly capital expenditures were $18.4 billion, up 550% year over year. Of that, 86%—about $15.8 billion—was poured into AI infrastructure, and management explicitly said Q3 and Q4 spending will remain at a similar level. On top of that, on August 6, about 910 million shares of internal stock will be unlocked, with an unlock size exceeding 1.4 times the float. The market is casting its vote with its feet 📉📉.

In the short to medium term, under the triple pressure of an overvalued multiple + massive cash burn + the unlocks, SPCX, the Nasdaq (QQQ), and Nvidia (NVDA) are all under pressure 📉. It’s recommended to watch for the first trading day after the earnings release to see the volume-driven direction and how the unlocks get digested.

However, the long-term thesis hasn’t been broken: Starlink generated $1.66 billion in quarterly operating profit, cash reserves are as high as $100 billion, and there are $47.5 billion in outstanding orders. Starship V3 has already completed two successful test flights. The payback period for AI compute contracts is less than a year, and real demand from the three engines—Starlink + AI + launches—is starting to materialize.

Short-term 📉 bearish on volatility, long-term 📈 bullish. The real line in the sand is: whether Starship can achieve “one launch per day on average” within a year, turning cash-burning assets into a printing machine.
$NVDA
$SPCX
$QQQ

Moody’s has upgraded SK hynix’s long-term issuer rating from “Baa1” to “A3” 📈. This is the first time it has received an A-grade since being incorporated into the SK Group in 2012, and it is the first among the three major international rating agencies to grant an A-grade. The main reason is that the expansion of AI infrastructure has triggered a surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server DRAM. In 2026 Q2, the company’s revenue reached 79.3 trillion won, up 257% year-over-year. HBM4 has already begun large-scale shipments. Net cash positions totaled 69.4 trillion won, with a significant improvement in profitability and cash-generating capacity, and sufficient buffers to withstand the cycle.

In the U.S. market, SKHY is up 8.17%, the semiconductor ETF SMH is up 5.55%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is up over 6% 📈—sector sentiment is hot.

Near term: bullish 📈. Moody’s expects the company’s profitability and cash flow to remain strong over the next 12 to 18 months, with an “stable” outlook, and given relatively tight HBM supply and demand, the stock price has support. Long term: more cautious 📉. Industry cycle volatility, Chinese manufacturers catching up, and large-scale capital expenditures remain key concerns. After 2027, the concentrated release of new capacity may lead to looser supply and pressure on profits; chasing the stock should be done with caution. #穆迪首予SK海力士A级评级
$SKHY
$SKHYNIX
$KORU

A Korean retail investor platform called ACT has recently urged Samsung Electronics to launch a stock buyback of about $32 billion (KRW 45.5 trillion), and to cap performance bonuses that are tied to operating profit, with its shots aimed squarely at the question: "Who exactly does the company belong to?"

The direct trigger was the stock price crash: since its June all-time high, Samsung has fallen by more than a third. Although AI memory demand is strong, deleveraging and market concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending have left this KOSPI heavyweight among the hardest hit, dragging down the KOSPI index and weighing on tech sentiment in the Nasdaq (QQQ) as well 📉.

The deeper cause is the eruption of governance conflicts. In May, Samsung agreed to use about 10.5% of semiconductor operating profit for stock-form performance bonuses, prompting retail investors to question, "Who has the authority to allocate future profits in advance?" ACT, taking Micron and Kioxia as benchmarks, calls on Samsung to use 50% to even 100% of free cash flow for share buybacks and cancellations, rather than hoarding roughly KRW 190 trillion in cash.

Near term 📈: the buyback proposal, mobilization by retail investors, and potential support from institutions such as the National Pension Service could form an event-driven positive catalyst, giving the stock room to rebound.

Long term 📉: a massive KRW 45.5 trillion buyback would squeeze semiconductor capex and potential deal-making ammunition, and if the AI memory cycle tops out, buybacks alone may not be enough to support the valuation. Samsung Electronics has not yet responded. The outcome of the collection process with a 3% shareholding threshold will be a key signpost. #ACT吁三星电子回购320亿美元
$SKHYNIX
$SAMSUNG
$KORU

On August 6, SpaceX (SPCX)’s first lock-up period expires. The underlying issue isn’t as simple as “the lock-up period is up.” Instead, its IPO adopted a phase-based, staggered release mechanism that’s completely different from the conventional 180-day unified unlock—this is a special structure tailored by the underwriters for the trillion-level company, aiming to expand the float while avoiding a sharp supply-demand shock 📉.

The first tranche of about 911.5 million shares (20% of the restricted pool) will become eligible for sale. At the current share price, the market value is about $116 billion—roughly doubling the existing float. In addition, the first quarterly report was just released on August 4, so supply shock and earnings validation are hitting at the same time. Short positions have already piled up to 30%–35% of tradable shares, with a notional short exposure of over $25 billion 📉.

Near-term bias: bearish 📉. Risk appetite for growth stocks has already been tightening. Once billion-level (i.e., large-cap) shares become eligible for selling, even if holders don’t sell immediately, psychological selling pressure can weigh on the stock price. Implied volatility in options in the pre-earnings period is around 15%.

Medium- to long-term bias: bullish 📈. Musk has about 7.8 billion shares locked until June 2027, so there is no true near-term forced selling. If the Starlink cash-cow narrative plus the AI infrastructure story is validated by the earnings report, then after the 5.33 billion shares in float are gradually absorbed by December, the market focus will return to operational fundamentals 📈.

August 6 is only the beginning. In the following period, every 2–3 weeks there will be an additional unlock of roughly 7% of the shares in a relay fashion, meaning the real supply pressure will continue through December.#SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期
$SPCX
$QQQ
$SPY

Bitcoin (BTC) recaptures the $64,000 level, driven mainly by three forces: first, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have ended a streak of net outflows. On August 4, the single-day net inflow was about $170 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $111.4 million—institutions’ willingness to buy the dip is clearly evident; second, easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and improved expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil prices tumbling, with WTI dropping to around $80. Meanwhile, inflation and rate-hike expectations have cooled; third, short positions in the derivatives market are being squeezed. After leverage is liquidated, even a modest amount of buying pressure can lift prices.

📈 Slightly bullish in the short term: BTC holds above $64,000 as capital returns and macro liquidity expectations improve. Support is at 63,275, with resistance at 64,500/65,000.

Neutral-to-choppy in the medium to long term: the Fed’s hawkish message that “rate hikes are still on the table” has not been withdrawn. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4.7%, and with geopolitical factors still in flux, a true trend reversal still needs confirmation.

$64,000 is the checkpoint for sentiment repair, not a trumpet call for a bull market. Only if there is a convincing breakout above $65,000 accompanied by sustained net inflows into ETFs will the upside rebound have further room to open. If price falls back below $63,000, this round of recovery will be declared over.#比特币收复6.4万美元关口
$BTC
$ETH

DeepSeek restarts its second round of fundraising, plans to raise 50 billion yuan, and its pre-investment valuation has surged to 500 billion yuan—just two months away from the first round’s 50 billion yuan closing. Money isn’t meant to "patch holes"; the logic of AI competition has changed—an industry shift from "training-driven" to "inference-driven".

One week after the launch of DeepSeek V4-Flash, its calls topped OpenRouter. Tens of billions of inference requests per day continue to burn compute resources.

In the short term 📉: the Nasdaq QQQ has been experiencing fierce volatility. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 20.6% in July. Even though AMD’s after-hours results beat expectations, the stock still fell by more than 10%. The market is worried that cloud vendors’ capital expenditure returns may fall short of expectations. NVDA is also dragged down by doubts about AI capex.

In the long term 📈: inference demand is like "a steam engine that reduces fuel consumption but increases total coal usage." In DeepSeek’s first round, 60% to 70% of the funds (about 30—35 billion yuan) were投入 into a GW-level intelligent computing data center in Ulanqab, so this second round of 50 billion yuan is likely to continue the heavy-asset route.

On August 4, SK Hynix’s ADR rose 8.17% and Micron gained more than 7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.6%—the long-term thesis for AI storage and compute capacity has not been disproven. WTI crude oil CL00Y edged down to $75.11 per barrel, favorable for the energy-cost side of compute expansion.

The essence of capital rushing in is betting on DeepSeek’s irreplaceability in the domestic compute adaptation and technological sovereignty. The tug-of-war between short-term valuation exhaustion 📉 and long-term hard demand for compute 📈 will run through this AI infrastructure super-cycle.#DeepSeek重启二轮融资拟募500亿元
$MU
$SKHY
$QQQ

#AMD盘后跌8% AMD (AMD) August 4th, after-hours trading saw a brief drop of over 10%. As of 6:50 p.m. ET, the decline was 8.89% 📉, while during the regular trading session it closed up 7%. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC surged 2.59%📈 the same day, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX jumped 6.55%📈—amid the sector’s celebration, individual stocks plunged, and the contrast is especially striking.

The results themselves aren’t bad: Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year over year. The data center segment revenue was $6.718 billion, more than doubling year over year 📈. The Q3 guidance of $13.0 billion is also higher than the analysts’ consensus of $12.5 billion. But some buy-side institutions had previously bet on accelerating AI demand, pushing expectations up to $14.0 billion. In the case of AI-chip stocks that were priced perfectly for “slightly above expectations,” the outcome simply wasn’t good enough.

On top of that, Q2 capital expenditures of $808 million far exceeded the expected $299 million. Concerns about near-term margins and free cash flow were ignited, and profit-taking on the opportunity accelerated.

Short term 📉: Valuation is already running ahead of earnings. The after-hours pullback is a “sell the news” move, and with Nvidia’s earnings report approaching, volatility is likely to be amplified.

Long term 📈: Lisa Su has made it clear that data center sales will further accelerate in the second half of 2026 and double in 2027. The Helios rack system has already shipped to Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle, and by 2030 the scale of AI accelerators will reach $1.4 trillion. —the underlying trend hasn’t reversed; the pullback looks more like a breather within a bull market rather than a turning point.
$META
$AMD
$OPENAI

#SpaceXAI支出拖累首份财报 SpaceX（SPCX）posts its first earnings report after going public, delivering a split narrative of "revenue 📈, stock price 📉": Q2 revenue was USD 7.814 billion, up 📈 92% year over year; adjusted EBITDA rose 📈 191% to USD 3.538 billion, beating expectations comprehensively. However, capital expenditures surged to about USD 18.4 billion, including USD 15.83 billion poured into AI infrastructure, plus the potential selling pressure from the release of about 911 million shares on August 6. After-hours, the stock price plunged by nearly 9%.

Core contradiction: AI business revenue hit USD 2.56 billion, up 📈 247% year over year, and it achieved adjusted EBITDA profitability for the first time—showing the direction is right. But management explicitly said capital expenditures for the third and fourth quarters will remain at the same level, and the claim that the payback period is "less than a year" lacks accounting details to support it. Against the backdrop of the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) rising 📈 2.38% overall, the market chose with its feet.

Near term 📉: the wave of share unlocks + USD 18.4 billion quarterly cash burn + no performance guidance—SPCX will be tested at the prior low near USD 115. In line with sector sentiment that saw AMD drop more than 10% after earnings, IXIC and NDX may also be dragged down indirectly.

Long term 📈: Starlink users doubled to 12 million, outstanding orders stand at USD 47.5 billion, and Musk brought the trillion-dollar revenue target forward to 2030. Fundamentals have not deteriorated. If the selling pressure from the unlock clears out, SPCX may replicate the re-rating path seen in ORCL—"AI capital expenditure delivered." $SPCX $QQQ

#原油价格跌至三周低点 Global oil prices have recently kept falling. WTI crude oil futures (CL) 📉 briefly dropped below $70 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures (BZ) 📉 fell to around $73, both hitting the lowest levels since March and erasing all gains since the Iran–US conflict.

Key driver: The rapid clearing of the geopolitical risk premium. After the signing of a temporary Iran–US agreement, the Strait of Hormuz resumed operations—over the past 24 hours, more than 72 vessels, about 20 million barrels of crude oil, passed through the strait. Tankers that had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for more than three months have started to sail away. The market’s narrative of “Iran–US ceasefire → strait reopening → Iran’s crude oil returning” has shifted from expectations to reality. The earlier $20–$25 per barrel geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, and the B-W spread narrowed to nearly flat.

Cross-asset linkage: The U.S. dollar index (DXY) 📈 is slightly strong in the short term. On the surface, “oil prices fall, the dollar should weaken,” but in reality DXY did not fall—it rose instead and hit a 13-month high. According to CICC Forex, commodity markets first priced in the decline in geopolitical risk premia, while FX markets are still pricing the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance. Resilient May retail and employment data, together with increased uncertainty about the policy path after Waller took over, give the dollar an “uncertainty premium.”

Underlying linkage: Upstream energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) 📉 move with weaker oil prices, putting relative pressure on the energy sector versus the broader market.

Short term 📉 bearish; medium term still range-bound with a bearish tilt 📉. In the short run, normalization of strait transit plus expectations of Iran’s crude oil returning will continue to weigh on oil prices, and the risk premium clearing is not yet complete.

In the medium run, if the oil-price decline in June–July feeds through into gasoline and core inflation, and the market unwinds the Fed’s “higher for longer” rate pricing, then the dollar may actually trade weaker in the medium term. However, oil prices themselves will still be dominated by global supply–demand conditions. What to watch is that the current ceasefire is closer to a tactical pause, and both Hormuz transit and the nuclear issue have not been fully resolved. Any back-and-forth in negotiations could trigger a rebound led by short-covering 📈. Therefore, over the medium to long term, it is not advisable to chase shorts in a one-direction bet; instead, treat it as a range.
$CL
$BZ

#SpaceX财报前涨9.8% SPCX（SpaceX）On August 4, during the trading session, the stock surged over 10% at one point, and still closed up 9.43%. After hours, however, it suddenly plunged nearly 9%. The main reasons were: "good news already priced in + capital expenditure shock." The earnings report showed that Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year over year 📈, and adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.538 billion, beating expectations across the board; however, capital expenditures in Q2 reached $18.369 billion, far above the expected $13.2 billion. Of that, $15.8 billion was poured into AI infrastructure, and the CFO explicitly said there will be no contraction in the second half. Meanwhile, about 911.5 million shares held by insiders will be unblocked on August 6, theoretically expanding the float to 2.43 times the original. Combined with SPCX’s current valuation implying an EV/EBITDA of nearly 192x, the market’s tolerance for the "cash-burning pace" dropped sharply—so after the earnings release, the move flipped from 📈 to 📉.

In the short term, 📉—the unlocked supply shock + high-pressure capital expenditure + sentiment resonance with the Nasdaq QQQ could keep the stock under pressure and force it to test the prior low near $115.

In the medium term, 📈—Starlink users have surpassed 12 million, the AI segment achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA for the first time, and the company has $47.5 billion in orders on hand. The fundamentals have not deteriorated. If the unblocking plays out in a controlled way and the selling pressure is manageable, referencing past cases like AI infrastructure stocks such as ORCL, SpaceX could enter a repair window of "negative news already out of the way."

With the three factors—overvaluation + high capital expenditures + a massive share unblocking—stacking together, volatility is set to be extremely high, and the short-term trading risk is very elevated.
$SPCX
$QQQ

#AMD盘后跌8% AMD (AMD) Tuesday’s regular trading session surged 7%, but after-hours it plunged nearly 8.82% 📉, at one point falling more than 10%. On the surface, it looks like “good news has already been priced in,” but at the root, expectations were simply too high.

The latest Q2 report is actually quite impressive: revenue was $11.536 billion year over year +50%. The data center segment’s revenue was $6.718 billion, up 107% YoY. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 beat expectations. However, the company’s Q3 revenue guidance is about $13.0 billion—higher than the Street’s average estimate of $12.5 billion, but it failed to satisfy some institutions that had bet on a bigger number, expecting AI demand to accelerate even faster.

What makes the bulls hesitate even more is that Q2 capital expenditures reached $808 million, far above the prior figure—market worries that AI capacity expansion is consuming near-term free cash flow. Coupled with chip stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) also chopping at high levels, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the long-term trend of the Nasdaq (QQQ) 📈 haven’t broken, but short-term valuation digestion pressure is concentrated and being released.

In the short term 📉 sentiment is bearish: with the earnings threshold “priced perfectly,” profit-taking will likely cause stock volatility.

In the mid-to-long term 📈 I still lean bullish. The data center half-year report is accelerating, Helios rack platform shipments are ramping, and the 2028 AI accelerator market opportunity has been raised to $1.4 trillion—the fundamental engine hasn’t sputtered out. What’s happening now is more like “valuation rebalancing during a growth-rate transition period,” not a rupture in the AI narrative.
$AMD
$NVDA
$QQQ

#SpaceXAI支出拖累首份财报 SpaceX (SPCX) delivers its first earnings report after going public, achieving a score of “revenue nearly doubling and losses clearly narrowing,” but it still suffered a nearly 9% drop after hours due to a sharp surge in AI spending, marking yet another milestone event in the U.S. stock market’s AI capital expenditure narrative 📉.

In Q2, SPCX revenue came in at $7.814 billion, up 92% year over year and well above the market’s $6.9 billion expectation. Net loss narrowed from $1.0 billion in the same period last year to $541 million. Starlink subscriptions surpassed 12 million, and the connectivity business contributed $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, remaining the only consistently profitable cash cow.

But what truly ignited the selloff was capital expenditures: in Q2, overall Capex surged to $18.369 billion, nearly 6 times year over year, with $15.83 billion poured into AI infrastructure. Although AI business revenue jumped 247% year over year to $2.56 billion, the quarterly operating loss in the segment was still $1.26 billion. The market’s concern is this: with a “burn rate of $45 billion+ per year,” when will the spending translate into free cash flow that matches it?

SPCX’s sharp volatility also weighed on the after-hours performance of the Nasdaq (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY), as the AI capex narrative once again became a core variable in tech stock valuations. To make matters worse, on August 6, SPCX will face a large-scale internal share unlock, and the potential overhang of supply may lead short-term funds to step back first 📉.

Near term 📉: Capex spiraling out of control + an unlock wave + negative free cash flow—valuation digestion will take time, and the stock price will most likely remain highly volatile.

Long term 📈: Starlink’s dominant, quasi-monopolistic position + the locking-in of a $14.1 billion contract sales for AI compute protocols + building trackside data centers in partnership with NVIDIA. If the pace of AI commercialization aligns with management’s “break even within a year” guidance, SPCX still has a fundamental basis to potentially run back to a bull trend.
$QQQ
$SPY
$SPCX

#金价维持4000美元上方 Massive commodity markets are showing a reverse trend where “oil falls and gold rises.” WTI crude oil (CL) plunged 5.7% in a single day to $75.77 per barrel, while Brent crude oil (BZ) fell 5.3% to $79.36 per barrel 📉. COMEX gold (XAU) moved higher against the tide and broke above $4,114 per ounce 📈.

The key lies in a switch in the transmission chain: the U.S. and Iran have sent major signals of easing, and the market expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen soon, causing the crude oil geopolitical risk premium to be quickly squeezed out. This is compounded by OPEC+ and seven major oil-producing countries officially announcing an additional 188,000 barrels per day in output in September—expectations of a looser supply-demand balance weigh on oil prices 📉. Meanwhile, as crude oil is the world’s key barometer for inflation, its sharp drop directly eases upward pressure from energy inflation. Market pricing for a September rate hike by the Fed fell from 67.2% to 56.9%, U.S. real yields declined, and holding non-yielding gold became cheaper—supporting gold prices 📈.

Near term: oil 📉, gold 📈. Easing geopolitics plus output increases being delivered hit oil prices from two angles; easing inflation pressure and rising expectations for rate cuts support gold.

Long term: oil remains high-volatility 📉 (Middle East developments keep flipping, plus internal OPEC+ dynamics); gold is likely to trade in a broad range with a moderately bullish bias 📈 (central bank gold purchases and turning-point expectations for interest rates are the main drivers, but the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance still limits upside room).
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On August 5, #ACT吁三星电子回购320亿美元 8, the Korean KOSPI index opened sharply higher, up nearly 3.85% to 6603.48 points. Intraday gains once widened to more than 4%📈, but it then faced profit-taking pressure, showing a typical pattern of opening high and moving lower.

Core driver: spillover effect from the overnight surge in U.S. technology stocks. On Tuesday Eastern Time, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hit record highs, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 7%, SK Hynix’s U.S. ADR climbed over 8%, and Intel and SanDisk jumped more than 10%📈. This strong sentiment was directly transmitted to Asia-Pacific: Samsung Electronics opened up more than 5%, SK Hynix rose over 6%📈, and the two heavyweight stocks together account for about 50% of the KOSPI, becoming the core engine of the morning rally.

Concern behind the high-open, low-close move: proactive cooling by regulators. South Korea’s finance minister clearly stated that measures will be taken to curb stock market volatility, including restrictions on single-stock leveraged ETFs heavily speculated in by retail investors — the plan is to cap such products at within 20% of an individual's total investment assets. Since the initial controls introduced early last week, the daily trading volume of the TIGER SK Hynix single-stock leveraged ETF has fallen from 482 billion won to 291 billion won📉. The retreat of leveraged funds, combined with profit-taking, is the key reason the index came under pressure after opening higher.

Short term📉: regulatory pressure on leveraged speculation plus margin balances have already fallen from the June peak of 38.6 trillion won to 32.2 trillion won. The correction pressure has not yet fully played out, and the KOSPI is likely to remain volatile at high levels with a bearish bias.

Medium to long term📈: with AI memory demand improving, new technology routes such as zHBM advancing, and the fundamentals of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix still supported, the outlook remains bullish on a medium-term basis after any pullback.#穆迪首予SK海力士A级评级 #韩国股票杠杆ETF交易量骤降
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