There’s no need to announce anything next week—we’re in the midst of the Super Central Bank week, and all eyes are on Powell.
The market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of the Fed rate hike on September 16. Traders are expecting it, but even so, nobody dares to say it for sure.
For example, in the July meeting, wasn’t it a 9-3 decision to hold steady?
Three dissenting votes were calling for a rate hike, right?
So this time, if a rate hike actually happens, you’d need that 9-3 to shift into the rate-hike camp—meaning you’d need four more votes. In fact, it still requires a certain number of people to change their minds. I think, yes, 90% is meant to reassure everyone, right? So the market won’t be afraid, right?
It’s that kind of tone—like, “Alright, good boy, don’t panic.” It’s basically telling you to note down the worst-case scenario first.
But if at the time it turns out he doesn’t hike—using various reasons, for instance if some Fed chairperson steps in from here and says a few words, then those expectations get corrected again.
That would mean a big rally. It’s just that even if there is a hike, people can still accept it right now—that’s basically the game, right? That’s how the Fed plays it. And even as of now, Goldman Sachs is still saying there could be a hike—“Highly unlikely.” They say it’s still possible to hike again by the end of the year in December; we’ll see then. In any case, it’s early Thursday morning.
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The market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of the Fed rate hike on September 16. Traders are expecting it, but even so, nobody dares to say it for sure.
For example, in the July meeting, wasn’t it a 9-3 decision to hold steady?
Three dissenting votes were calling for a rate hike, right?
So this time, if a rate hike actually happens, you’d need that 9-3 to shift into the rate-hike camp—meaning you’d need four more votes. In fact, it still requires a certain number of people to change their minds. I think, yes, 90% is meant to reassure everyone, right? So the market won’t be afraid, right?
It’s that kind of tone—like, “Alright, good boy, don’t panic.” It’s basically telling you to note down the worst-case scenario first.
But if at the time it turns out he doesn’t hike—using various reasons, for instance if some Fed chairperson steps in from here and says a few words, then those expectations get corrected again.
That would mean a big rally. It’s just that even if there is a hike, people can still accept it right now—that’s basically the game, right? That’s how the Fed plays it. And even as of now, Goldman Sachs is still saying there could be a hike—“Highly unlikely.” They say it’s still possible to hike again by the end of the year in December; we’ll see then. In any case, it’s early Thursday morning.
A way to save on trading fees!
Why link an invitation code? It’s simple—save money long-term.
Binance Wallet invitation code: 4040U, after linking, trading fees reduced by 30% or 点击这里一键绑定
