FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that if Bitcoin falls below $60,000 in the coming days, the market is likely to experience panic selling. Cryptocurrency traders are currently focused on whether Bitcoin can break above $65,000, a price target that would suggest market sentiment has turned bullish.

Bitcoin rose 2.4% in early Asian trading on Tuesday, and was trading at US$62,424 at the time of writing. Since breaking away from the weekend slump yesterday (13th), Bitcoin has challenged the US$63,000 level several times, but all failed.

In fact, Bitcoin has been trading between $60,000 and $70,000 since March, with profit-taking selling pressure immediately following the much-anticipated April halving event amid a general lack of catalysts in the market. After the market was released, the entire market was in a "Sell the news" (sell on the news) profit-exhausting mode. In addition, the gold-absorbing power of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly weakened in the past few weeks, which has also intensified the market's bearish sentiment.

Alex Kuptsikevich said the current price trend is characterized by "lower lows" and "lower highs," indicating that investors tend to "sell on price rebounds," and that this pressure is likely to come from Miners are selling off Bitcoin, as evidenced by a drop in mining difficulty after the halving, and concerns about authorities tightening regulations on cryptocurrencies. He added:

A drop below $60,000 could trigger panic selling. But in our view, the main scenario would be optimistic, with Bitcoin rising above $65,000, pinning the price at the 50-day moving average and reversal zone in early May.

Short-term holders may influence drawdowns

On the other hand, analysts from cryptocurrency investment company Ryze Labs said in a report that the behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders (holding coins for less than 155 days) will largely affect the market in the next few months. towards.

Ryze Labs stated that Bitcoin has experienced three times in its history when "94% of long-term and short-term holders are in profit": from mid-November 2017 to mid-April 2017; from mid-February 2021 to April 2021. mid-month; the latest time was from the end of February to early April 2024.

Historically, short- and long-term investor behavior precedes market movements. (Ryze Labs)

The peak value of Bitcoin held by short-term investors reached $117.8 billion in 2017 and later reached $289.9 billion in 2021. During these periods, Bitcoins from long-term holders and miners typically flow to short-term holders.

However, after these peaks, short-term holders' losses will rapidly increase, causing the cycle to reverse, with short-term sellers eventually selling their Bitcoin to long-term holders. The Ryze Labs team has observed that this shift has historically caused Bitcoin to plunge into significant retracements lasting 4 to 6 months. Analysts said:

During the most recent cycle, the value of Bitcoin held by short-term investors was $218.9 billion. While most people initially made profits, they have started selling aggressively. Approximately a month into this period, Bitcoin’s largest decline from the period’s high was around -6%.

〈Failed to challenge $63,000 several times! Analyst: If Bitcoin falls below 60,000, it may trigger panic selling> This article was first published on "Block Guest".