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Bitcoin, Trump, and the Art of Calling the Bottom. Coincidence or Signal?
This isn’t just any tweet. It’s a tweet from Donald J. Trump a former U.S. President publicly calling it a “great time to buy”… right as Bitcoin is bleeding.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes in uncomfortable ways.
Look closely at the chart:
• Loud optimism appears after heavy downside
• Public confidence spikes when fear is already priced in
• The message arrives when most participants are emotionally exhausted
This isn’t about Trump moving the market. It’s about timing and psychology.
When figures of this magnitude speak during moments of maximum stress, it often marks a transition not the end of pain, but the end of forced selling.
Capitulation doesn’t always look like panic. Sometimes it looks like confidence returning too early.
If this tweet becomes another historical marker, then what we’re seeing now isn’t the start of a bear market it’s the formation of a macro bottom.
Not a prediction.
Not advice.
Just a recurring pattern that has appeared more times than most are comfortable admitting.
So the real question is simple:
Is history about to repeat?
#TRUMP #BTC #bitcoin $BTC
History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes in uncomfortable ways.
Look closely at the chart:
• Loud optimism appears after heavy downside
• Public confidence spikes when fear is already priced in
• The message arrives when most participants are emotionally exhausted
This isn’t about Trump moving the market. It’s about timing and psychology.
When figures of this magnitude speak during moments of maximum stress, it often marks a transition not the end of pain, but the end of forced selling.
Capitulation doesn’t always look like panic. Sometimes it looks like confidence returning too early.
If this tweet becomes another historical marker, then what we’re seeing now isn’t the start of a bear market it’s the formation of a macro bottom.
Not a prediction.
Not advice.
Just a recurring pattern that has appeared more times than most are comfortable admitting.
So the real question is simple:
Is history about to repeat?
#TRUMP #BTC #bitcoin $BTC
Binance BiBi:
Hey there! That's a great question. My search suggests the tweets in that image may be used out of context or are digitally edited. For example, the 'great time to buy' tweet was reportedly about the stock market, not Bitcoin. It's always best to verify such claims through official sources yourself. Hope this helps
This Isn’t a Reversal — It’s Only Phase Two $BTC > 65k
Thank you for your attention! This is exactly what you've been hearing since September 2025. Next, we'll form the bottom, and reaccumulate until October.
A smart person told me to stop posting publicly. Make everything private, but I continue to publish my thoughts for you.
There are no entry points for positions here; my positions are elsewhere.
Right now, it’s still too early to talk about any meaningful reversal. We’re not in a recovery phase - we’re in phase two of the market cycle, and this phase tends to last longer than most expect. The structure is forming exactly as it should: slowly, unevenly, with pockets of stress that haven’t fully played out yet.
Bitcoin is dropping, but for me there’s nothing surprising in this move.
If you’ve been following my posts for a while, you know this scenario was not only possible
— it was highly probable. We’ve already reached the first target zones I highlighted earlier, and the market is now moving toward the deeper structural points that complete this segment of the cycle.
There are still shocks ahead, and the system hasn’t finished recalibrating.
This is not a trend market — this is a regime market. And regime markets demand patience, discipline, and the ability to read liquidity, not headlines.
2026: A Year of Market Regimes
2026 feels like a year defined by regimes, not direction.
This is a market that punishes overconfidence and rewards discipline: managing leverage, staying patient, and understanding liquidity matter more than any narrative.
Liquidity today behaves like a system of pipes. Sometimes the taps look wide open, yet the internal pressure shifts so fast that trends break long before the crowd can explain the move with headlines.
In these phases, Bitcoin behaves not like a “legend”, but like the most liquid proxy for risk:
under stress, it’s the first asset sold because reducing exposure through BTC is the easiest and fastest way.
This leads to a key insight:
Even during superficially “risk-on” news cycles, BTC can underperform when several forces align:
- rising demand for USD (dollar squeeze)
- carry trades unwinding
- capital rotating into leading sectors (metals, indices)
- portfolios cutting risk and closing leverage
Three Structural Scenarios for 2026
I avoid guessing levels; instead, I work with structural patterns. For 2026, I see three core possibilities:
1) Capitulation → Base Formation
A sharp washout, volatility climax, then a broad range and gradual base building.
2) Rallies Within a Larger Downtrend
Strong upside moves that turn into distribution.
The market gives hope — and takes it back on retests.
3) Macro Shock
An event in FX, rates, or liquidity triggers fast deleveraging.
Moves overshoot, correlations spike, and a violent mean reversion follows.
This is why my approach now is very simple:
fewer trades, higher quality.
I’m deliberately reducing the number of positions and focusing only on moments where structure provides a clear edge — because in years like this, capital is preserved not by activity, but by the right pauses.
About the Academy
In parallel, I’m updating my Academy in real time: weekly materials, market structure breakdowns, liquidity updates, USD dynamics, and risk indicators.
The access is open and free — anyone can stay aligned with the current regime without noise.
Current Market Structure
Looking at today’s structure, the market is forming precisely the segment I expected.
The key volume level ahead remains intact, and with high probability, price will break through it. Only after that expansion may we see the formation of the first real leg of the next cycle.
The conservative zones I mentioned earlier remain valid. More negative scenarios exist, yes — but the underlying logic does not change:
Accumulate gradually — on fear, liquidations, and liquidity distortions.
The main zone is very close, and that is where, in my view, the most interesting continuation setup will appear.
#BTC #TrendingTopic #bitcoin
A smart person told me to stop posting publicly. Make everything private, but I continue to publish my thoughts for you.
There are no entry points for positions here; my positions are elsewhere.
Right now, it’s still too early to talk about any meaningful reversal. We’re not in a recovery phase - we’re in phase two of the market cycle, and this phase tends to last longer than most expect. The structure is forming exactly as it should: slowly, unevenly, with pockets of stress that haven’t fully played out yet.
Bitcoin is dropping, but for me there’s nothing surprising in this move.
If you’ve been following my posts for a while, you know this scenario was not only possible
— it was highly probable. We’ve already reached the first target zones I highlighted earlier, and the market is now moving toward the deeper structural points that complete this segment of the cycle.
There are still shocks ahead, and the system hasn’t finished recalibrating.
This is not a trend market — this is a regime market. And regime markets demand patience, discipline, and the ability to read liquidity, not headlines.
2026: A Year of Market Regimes
2026 feels like a year defined by regimes, not direction.
This is a market that punishes overconfidence and rewards discipline: managing leverage, staying patient, and understanding liquidity matter more than any narrative.
Liquidity today behaves like a system of pipes. Sometimes the taps look wide open, yet the internal pressure shifts so fast that trends break long before the crowd can explain the move with headlines.
In these phases, Bitcoin behaves not like a “legend”, but like the most liquid proxy for risk:
under stress, it’s the first asset sold because reducing exposure through BTC is the easiest and fastest way.
This leads to a key insight:
Even during superficially “risk-on” news cycles, BTC can underperform when several forces align:
- rising demand for USD (dollar squeeze)
- carry trades unwinding
- capital rotating into leading sectors (metals, indices)
- portfolios cutting risk and closing leverage
Three Structural Scenarios for 2026
I avoid guessing levels; instead, I work with structural patterns. For 2026, I see three core possibilities:
1) Capitulation → Base Formation
A sharp washout, volatility climax, then a broad range and gradual base building.
2) Rallies Within a Larger Downtrend
Strong upside moves that turn into distribution.
The market gives hope — and takes it back on retests.
3) Macro Shock
An event in FX, rates, or liquidity triggers fast deleveraging.
Moves overshoot, correlations spike, and a violent mean reversion follows.
This is why my approach now is very simple:
fewer trades, higher quality.
I’m deliberately reducing the number of positions and focusing only on moments where structure provides a clear edge — because in years like this, capital is preserved not by activity, but by the right pauses.
About the Academy
In parallel, I’m updating my Academy in real time: weekly materials, market structure breakdowns, liquidity updates, USD dynamics, and risk indicators.
The access is open and free — anyone can stay aligned with the current regime without noise.
Current Market Structure
Looking at today’s structure, the market is forming precisely the segment I expected.
The key volume level ahead remains intact, and with high probability, price will break through it. Only after that expansion may we see the formation of the first real leg of the next cycle.
The conservative zones I mentioned earlier remain valid. More negative scenarios exist, yes — but the underlying logic does not change:
Accumulate gradually — on fear, liquidations, and liquidity distortions.
The main zone is very close, and that is where, in my view, the most interesting continuation setup will appear.
#BTC #TrendingTopic #bitcoin
Binance BiBi:
Hello! Your article analyzes that the market has not reversed but is in the 'phase two' of the cycle, expected to create a bottom and accumulate until October. You emphasize that the year 2026 requires patience, and your strategy is to trade less, focusing on accumulating BTC during the downturns. Hope this helps.
This Cycle Is Truly Different — And Ignoring That Is a Mistake
People love to say “every cycle feels different”.
This one actually is.
At this stage, the deviations are no longer debatable they’re structural.
Consider what has never happened before… until now:
First cycle to print an ATH before the halvingFirst cycle with no real expansion on the 2W Bollinger BandsFirst cycle with no 1M RSI expansionFirst cycle with no meaningful altcoin expansionFirst cycle ending with BTC dominance near 60%First cycle with no ATHs in TOTAL2, TOTAL3, or OTHERSFirst cycle to end with BTC/GOLD at cycle lowsFirst cycle where ATH occurred while ISM was in contraction
That’s not noise. That’s a pattern break.
So the real question becomes:
Is the cycle actually over… or did we just experience a mid-cycle top?
Why I Still Lean Toward a Mid-Cycle Top
Even after the recent liquidation cascade, my view hasn’t changed.
What we likely saw was:
A compressed expansionFollowed by a speed-run mini bearNot a full macro cycle completion
After the ~$60k low, the entire structure shifted. Short term? I’ll be honest the next few weeks are unclear.
But structurally, something stands out that I can’t ignore.
The Monthly RSI Tells a Rare Story
The 1M RSI has now tagged levels that historically marked:
2014 bear market bottom2018 bear market bottomVery close to the 2022 bottom
Here’s the key difference:
Those cycles fully expanded before collapsing.
This one didn’t. We never reached true HTF overbought conditions yet we’ve already retraced to bear-market RSI levels.
That implies this move was exceptionally deep relative to expansion, not the kind of action you expect at a final cycle high.
Expansion Determines Contraction
Markets obey symmetry. Assets tend to contract relative to how much they previously expanded.
Past bull markets expanded aggressively → 75–85% drawdowns followedThis cycle barely expanded → yet we’re already near a 50% macro drawdown
That math matters. A 75% drawdown requires excess. This cycle never had it.
Why This Still Looks Like 2019–2020
Despite the violence of the recent move, the structure continues to resemble:
Post-2019 mid-cycle resetLiquidity flush before continuationSentiment collapse without macro exhaustion
Emotionally, it feels like a bear market. Structurally, it doesn’t behave like one. This cycle must be analyzed through a different lens.
Old playbooks assume:
Full expansionFull euphoriaFull collapse
We didn’t get that. And markets don’t end cycles without first exhausting optimism.
The next few months will be uncomfortable, volatile, and confusing.
But I strongly believe one thing:
What comes next will not align with what the majority expects.
And that’s usually where opportunity is born.
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis $BTC
This one actually is.
At this stage, the deviations are no longer debatable they’re structural.
Consider what has never happened before… until now:
First cycle to print an ATH before the halvingFirst cycle with no real expansion on the 2W Bollinger BandsFirst cycle with no 1M RSI expansionFirst cycle with no meaningful altcoin expansionFirst cycle ending with BTC dominance near 60%First cycle with no ATHs in TOTAL2, TOTAL3, or OTHERSFirst cycle to end with BTC/GOLD at cycle lowsFirst cycle where ATH occurred while ISM was in contraction
That’s not noise. That’s a pattern break.
So the real question becomes:
Is the cycle actually over… or did we just experience a mid-cycle top?
Why I Still Lean Toward a Mid-Cycle Top
Even after the recent liquidation cascade, my view hasn’t changed.
What we likely saw was:
A compressed expansionFollowed by a speed-run mini bearNot a full macro cycle completion
After the ~$60k low, the entire structure shifted. Short term? I’ll be honest the next few weeks are unclear.
But structurally, something stands out that I can’t ignore.
The Monthly RSI Tells a Rare Story
The 1M RSI has now tagged levels that historically marked:
2014 bear market bottom2018 bear market bottomVery close to the 2022 bottom
Here’s the key difference:
Those cycles fully expanded before collapsing.
This one didn’t. We never reached true HTF overbought conditions yet we’ve already retraced to bear-market RSI levels.
That implies this move was exceptionally deep relative to expansion, not the kind of action you expect at a final cycle high.
Expansion Determines Contraction
Markets obey symmetry. Assets tend to contract relative to how much they previously expanded.
Past bull markets expanded aggressively → 75–85% drawdowns followedThis cycle barely expanded → yet we’re already near a 50% macro drawdown
That math matters. A 75% drawdown requires excess. This cycle never had it.
Why This Still Looks Like 2019–2020
Despite the violence of the recent move, the structure continues to resemble:
Post-2019 mid-cycle resetLiquidity flush before continuationSentiment collapse without macro exhaustion
Emotionally, it feels like a bear market. Structurally, it doesn’t behave like one. This cycle must be analyzed through a different lens.
Old playbooks assume:
Full expansionFull euphoriaFull collapse
We didn’t get that. And markets don’t end cycles without first exhausting optimism.
The next few months will be uncomfortable, volatile, and confusing.
But I strongly believe one thing:
What comes next will not align with what the majority expects.
And that’s usually where opportunity is born.
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis $BTC
Annalee Harns gt29:
The « gold mine » of the means as he said !
We are at the end of the cryptos story
Internet and epstein files have had reason of it
When Will Bitcoin Rebound? The Chart Is Already Telling Us the Answer
Bitcoin isn’t crashing randomly.
It’s following a script it has repeated multiple times before.
If you look closely at the chart, one thing becomes clear:
👉 Bitcoin always reacts to the same zones.
Step 1: Market Memory Is Real
The purple horizontal zone around $109,000 acted as:
Resistance first
Then a breakout level
then support
And finally… the level that failed and triggered the drop
Every major pump in this cycle started only after BTC broke and held this zone.
Once it failed, momentum flipped.
This isn’t fear.
This is structure.
📉 Step 2: Controlled Dump, Not Panic
Bitcoin moved inside clean trend channels on the way up.
Now it’s doing the same on the way down.
That steep drop you see?
It happened inside a descending channel, not a free fall.
This tells us:
Sellers are in control short term
But price is still respecting technical levels
That’s important.
Step 3: The REAL Support Zone
Right now, all eyes are on the $72,000–$75,000 zone.
Why this area matters:
Previous strong support
High volume accumulation zone
Point where buyers stepped in aggressively before
Bitcoin is literally asking one question here:
“Will buyers defend this level again?”
If this zone holds:
Sideways consolidation
Liquidity build-up
Then… trend reversal
If it breaks:
Short-term pain
Deeper wick
Faster recovery later
Either way — this is where rebounds are born, not at tops.
🚀 Step 4: How the Pump Actually Starts
Bitcoin never pumps from excitement.
It pumps from boredom and disbelief.
The pattern is clear:
Price holds key supportWeak hands exitVolatility compressesBreak above local resistanceMomentum returns FAST
That’s when everyone says:
“It moved so fast, I missed it.”
Final Take
Bitcoin doesn’t rebound when news turns bullish.
It rebounds when support is defended and sellers run out.
Watch the $72K–$75K zone
Reclaim above $90K–$98K confirms strength
Break and hold $109K = next leg unlocked
This isn’t the end of the cycle.
This is the reset before the next expansion.
#crypto #WhenWillBTCRebound #bitcoin #MarketCorrection $BTC
It’s following a script it has repeated multiple times before.
If you look closely at the chart, one thing becomes clear:
👉 Bitcoin always reacts to the same zones.
Step 1: Market Memory Is Real
The purple horizontal zone around $109,000 acted as:
Resistance first
Then a breakout level
then support
And finally… the level that failed and triggered the drop
Every major pump in this cycle started only after BTC broke and held this zone.
Once it failed, momentum flipped.
This isn’t fear.
This is structure.
📉 Step 2: Controlled Dump, Not Panic
Bitcoin moved inside clean trend channels on the way up.
Now it’s doing the same on the way down.
That steep drop you see?
It happened inside a descending channel, not a free fall.
This tells us:
Sellers are in control short term
But price is still respecting technical levels
That’s important.
Step 3: The REAL Support Zone
Right now, all eyes are on the $72,000–$75,000 zone.
Why this area matters:
Previous strong support
High volume accumulation zone
Point where buyers stepped in aggressively before
Bitcoin is literally asking one question here:
“Will buyers defend this level again?”
If this zone holds:
Sideways consolidation
Liquidity build-up
Then… trend reversal
If it breaks:
Short-term pain
Deeper wick
Faster recovery later
Either way — this is where rebounds are born, not at tops.
🚀 Step 4: How the Pump Actually Starts
Bitcoin never pumps from excitement.
It pumps from boredom and disbelief.
The pattern is clear:
Price holds key supportWeak hands exitVolatility compressesBreak above local resistanceMomentum returns FAST
That’s when everyone says:
“It moved so fast, I missed it.”
Final Take
Bitcoin doesn’t rebound when news turns bullish.
It rebounds when support is defended and sellers run out.
Watch the $72K–$75K zone
Reclaim above $90K–$98K confirms strength
Break and hold $109K = next leg unlocked
This isn’t the end of the cycle.
This is the reset before the next expansion.
#crypto #WhenWillBTCRebound #bitcoin #MarketCorrection $BTC
Just checked #bitcoin Chart📈
In 2014 it dropped 85%.
In 2018 it dropped 84%.
In 2022 it dropped 77%.
In 2026 50% down so far another 20% Drop I’ll buy $BTC on spot while the world panic🤷♂️.
BTC
70,017.26
+9.2%
$BTC
In 2014 it dropped 85%.
In 2018 it dropped 84%.
In 2022 it dropped 77%.
In 2026 50% down so far another 20% Drop I’ll buy $BTC on spot while the world panic🤷♂️.
BTC
70,017.26
+9.2%
$BTC
Annalee Harns gt29:
The « gold mine » of the means as he said !
We are at the end of the cryptos story
Internet and epstein files have had reason of it
The market is currently in a state of "Calculated Chaos." While a $60,000 Bitcoin $BTC might feel like a catastrophe to those who bought the $126,000 peak, the data suggests we are witnessing a classic liquidity flush rather than a total structural collapse.
Here is the breakdown of why this moment is a critical crossroads for the community:
1. The "Healthy" Reset Theory
From a technical standpoint, this correction was long overdue.
Flushing the Fever: The $2.65 billion in liquidations we saw today effectively "reset" the leverage in the market. We have moved from a market driven by greedy speculators to one driven by spot buyers.
The Miner’s Floor: As we analyzed, Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 30% below its production cost ($87k+). Historically, $BTC cannot stay below the "cost to create" for long without causing a supply shock. This makes the $60k zone a "mathematical bottom" for long-term holders.
2. The Challenges Ahead
It’s not all clear skies. We have two major "dark clouds" lingering:
The "L2 Crisis": As discussed earlier, Ethereum's fragmentation and the skepticism from its founder are creating a vacuum in the Altcoin sector. Investors are no longer blindly throwing money at every new chain; they are demanding real utility.
Macro Uncertainty: With the U.S. government shutdown delaying the NFP report and the Lunar New Year drying up Asian liquidity, we are in a "Data Dark Zone." This makes the market more susceptible to manipulation and wild wicks.
3. My Take: Buy or Wait?
For the Opportunist: This is a "DCA Dream." If you believe in the JP Morgan parity model ($266k target), buying $BTC at $60k is a massive gift. You aren't just buying Bitcoin; you're buying it at a discount compared to the energy used to mine it.
For the Conservative: Wait. The "Panic Bottom" may be in, but the "Duration Bottom" takes time. We likely need a few weeks of sideways movement to confirm that the $60k support is ironclad before the next leg up begins.
#marketcorrection #BTC #bitcoin
Here is the breakdown of why this moment is a critical crossroads for the community:
1. The "Healthy" Reset Theory
From a technical standpoint, this correction was long overdue.
Flushing the Fever: The $2.65 billion in liquidations we saw today effectively "reset" the leverage in the market. We have moved from a market driven by greedy speculators to one driven by spot buyers.
The Miner’s Floor: As we analyzed, Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 30% below its production cost ($87k+). Historically, $BTC cannot stay below the "cost to create" for long without causing a supply shock. This makes the $60k zone a "mathematical bottom" for long-term holders.
2. The Challenges Ahead
It’s not all clear skies. We have two major "dark clouds" lingering:
The "L2 Crisis": As discussed earlier, Ethereum's fragmentation and the skepticism from its founder are creating a vacuum in the Altcoin sector. Investors are no longer blindly throwing money at every new chain; they are demanding real utility.
Macro Uncertainty: With the U.S. government shutdown delaying the NFP report and the Lunar New Year drying up Asian liquidity, we are in a "Data Dark Zone." This makes the market more susceptible to manipulation and wild wicks.
3. My Take: Buy or Wait?
For the Opportunist: This is a "DCA Dream." If you believe in the JP Morgan parity model ($266k target), buying $BTC at $60k is a massive gift. You aren't just buying Bitcoin; you're buying it at a discount compared to the energy used to mine it.
For the Conservative: Wait. The "Panic Bottom" may be in, but the "Duration Bottom" takes time. We likely need a few weeks of sideways movement to confirm that the $60k support is ironclad before the next leg up begins.
#marketcorrection #BTC #bitcoin
Binance BiBi:
Chào bạn! Bài viết của bạn nhận định rất sâu sắc rằng việc BTC giảm về 60k$ là một đợt 'thanh lý lành mạnh', vì giá đang thấp hơn chi phí đào. Bạn xem đây là cơ hội DCA lý tưởng nhưng cũng khuyên nhà đầu tư thận trọng nên chờ xác nhận hỗ trợ do các yếu tố vĩ mô và L2 chưa chắc chắn.
Everyone's Calling $59K as Bitcoin's Bottom. Here's Why They're Probably Wrong.
$BTC is at $67,811, and suddenly, everyone's an expert on where the bottom is.
"$59K is the floor!" says one analyst, pointing to the 200-week moving average.
"$60K that's where we bounce!" claims another, referencing the 2021 cycle high.
Polymarket traders are 95% confident #bitcoin drops below $65K. Bernstein analysts say $60K is the bottom. Michael Burry's chart pattern suggests low $50Ks.
Everyone has A number. Nobody has THE number.
And here's the uncomfortable truth: calling bottoms is where portfolios go to die.
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating
Let me show you something that should make you very, very cautious about anyone confidently calling a bottom right now.
2018: "$6K is the Floor!"
December 2017: Bitcoin hits $20,000 all-time high.
Throughout 2018, as Bitcoin bleeds, analysts start calling levels:
"$15K is strong support!" (Lost)"$10K psychological level!" (Lost)"$6K is THE bottom!" (Consensus formed here)
Everyone agreed: $6K was the line. It had been tested multiple times. It was previous resistance-turned-support. The charts were screaming it.
Actual bottom: $3,122.
The consensus was wrong by 48%.
2022: "$20K is the Floor!"
November 2021: Bitcoin hits $69,000 all-time high.
Throughout 2022, the same playbook:
"$30K strong support!" (Lost)"$20K is THE floor!" (Everyone believed this)
$20K was the previous cycle high from 2017. It was a textbook support level. Every analyst had it marked. Retail bought aggressively there.
Actual bottom: $15,479.
The consensus was wrong by 23%.
2026: "$59K is the Floor!"
October 2025: Bitcoin hits $126,210 all-time high.
Now, February 2026, Bitcoin at $67,500. And here we go again:
Analysts: "$59K-$60K is the bottom!"Bears: "$50K worst case!"Extreme bears: "$40K possible!"
Actual bottom: ???
But if history rhymes and it usually does the consensus is early. Again.
Why $59K Sounds So Convincing (And Why That's Dangerous)
Let me be clear: $59K-$60K IS a significant level. The arguments for it aren't stupid.
Here's why people are calling it:
1. The 200-Week Moving Average
Sits around $58K-$60K. Historically, Bitcoin has bounced hard from this level in every bear market.
2. Previous Cycle High
$69K was the 2021 ATH. Bitcoin often finds support near old cycle highs.
3. Realized Price
The average cost basis of all Bitcoin is near $60K. "Long-term holders defend this," they say.
4. Psychological Level
Clean, round number. Feels right.
5. Bernstein's Call
Credible analysts at Bernstein explicitly said, "$60K is where we bottom." All of these are VALID technical reasons.
But here's the problem: They were ALL valid in 2018 and 2022, too.
In 2018, analysts had equally strong reasons for $6K:
Previous support tested multiple times ✓Psychological round number ✓"Whales defending this level" ✓
Result: Wrong by 48%.
In 2022, analysts had equally strong reasons for $20K:
Previous cycle high ✓Strong psychological level ✓"Institutions accumulating here" ✓
Result: Wrong by 23%.
Technical levels don't care about your analysis. They break when sellers overwhelm buyers. And in bear markets, that happens more than people expect.
The Full Spectrum of Predictions (Everyone Has a Price)
Let's look at who's calling what:
The Optimists ($70K-$75K):
Bit Mining's Youwei Yang: "$75K possible low"Some retail: "We already bottomed at $67K!"
The Consensus ($55K-$65K):
Bernstein: "$60K bottom, last cycle high"Many analysts: "$59K, the 200-week MA"Standard Chartered: "$55K worst-case scenario"Polymarket: 95% chance we go below $65K
The Bears ($45K-$55K):
Michael Burry: Pattern suggests low $50Ks10X Research: "$52K possible"Tyler Richey: "$50K-$57K in severe macro downturn"
The Extreme Bears ($40K and lower):
John Blank (Zacks): "$40K within 8 months"Perma-bears: "Going to zero!" (Always wrong, but loud)
Notice the problem?
The range is $40K to $75K. That's a 46% spread.
If "the bottom" can be anywhere in a 46% range, does anyone actually know?
No. They're all guessing with different levels of confidence.
What Actually Happens When You Call Bottoms Too Early
Here's the real cost of being wrong.
Scenario: You have $10,000 to invest.
You see Bitcoin at $85K and think, "This is it! The bottom!"
You buy $3,000 worth. Bitcoin drops to $75K.
"Okay, THIS is the real bottom!" You buy another $3,000.
Bitcoin drops to $67K. You buy another $2,000. Now you only have $2,000 left.
Bitcoin drops to $59K. You deploy your last $2,000.
Then Bitcoin hits the ACTUAL bottom at $52K.
You're out of money. You can't buy. You watch others accumulate at levels you'd LOVE to have, but you're tapped out.
This is the cost of calling bottoms early:
You run out of capitalYour average cost is higher than it needed to beYou feel psychological pain watching it drop furtherYou either panic sell (worst move) or sit paralyzed
The traders who waited? They have dry powder at $52K. They get the best price. They win.
The Four Mistakes Bottom Callers Make
Mistake #1: Confusing "Support" with "THE Bottom"
The trap: "This level has held before, so it MUST hold again!"
The reality: Support levels are probabilities, not guarantees. They hold until they don't.
In 2018, $6K held... until it didn't. Then it crashed to $3K.
In 2022, $20K held... until it didn't. Then it crashed to $15.5K.
Lesson: Support can become resistance. Nothing is a "floor" until price proves it by reversing.
Mistake #2: Anchoring to Round Numbers
The trap: "$60K feels right. It's a clean number."
The reality: Markets don't care about your round numbers. Bottoms often occur at ugly prices like $15,479 or $3,122 not $15,000 or $3,000.
Lesson: If everyone's watching the same round number, smart money will push it just past that to trigger stops and create panic.
Mistake #3: Ignoring Historical Precedent
The trap: "This time is different. We have ETFs now. Institutions are here."
The reality: Every cycle, people say "this time is different." And every cycle, bottoms are lower than the consensus predicted.
2018: "We have futures now!" (Still crashed)
2022: "We have institutional adoption!" (Still crashed)
2026: "We have spot ETFs!" (Still...)
Lesson: New infrastructure doesn't prevent bear markets. It just changes WHO is selling.
Mistake #4: Betting the Farm on One Level
The trap: "I KNOW $59K is the bottom, so I'm going all-in there!"
The reality: You don't know. Nobody knows. If you deploy 100% of capital at one level and it breaks, you're done.
Lesson: Layer your buys. Have a plan for IF your bottom call is wrong.
So What Should You Actually Do?
If calling bottoms is dangerous, what's the alternative?
Option 1: Wait for Confirmation
Don't try to catch the exact bottom. Let price PROVE it bottomed first.
How do you know it bottomed?
Price makes a higher lowVolume dries up on dumps, spikes on bouncesFear & Greed stays below 10 for weeks, then starts risingOn-chain: Long-term holders start accumulating aggressively
You'll "miss" 10-20% of the move. But you'll avoid catching falling knives.
Better to enter at $65K on the way UP than $59K on the way DOWN to $52K.
Option 2: Layer Your Entries (DCA on Steroids)
Don't go all-in at one level. Spread your buys across a range.
Example with $10,000:
$67K (current): $0 (wait)$65K: $1,000 (10%)$60K: $2,000 (20%)$55K: $3,000 (30%)$50K: $4,000 (40%)
This way:
If it bottoms at $60K, you got someIf it goes to $50K, you have the most at the best priceYou never run out of capital
Option 3: Set Conditions, Not Prices
Instead of "I'll buy at $59K," use conditions:
"I'll buy when Fear & Greed hits 5""I'll buy when RSI is oversold for 2+ weeks""I'll buy when long-term holder supply increases""I'll buy when we see capitulation wicks with immediate recovery"
Conditions are more flexible than rigid price targets.
My Personal Take (And What I'm Actually Doing)
Here's my honest position:
I'm not calling $59K the bottom.
Could it be? Sure. The technicals support it.
But I've seen this movie before. In 2022, I was convinced $20K would hold. It didn't. That experience cost me.
Here's what I'm doing instead:
Holding cash. I'm not deploying heavily until I see confirmation.Watching $66K, $60K, $52K. These are my levels of interest—NOT my "guaranteed bottom calls."Scaling in, not going all-in. If we hit $60K, I'll deploy 20-30%. If we hit $52K, I'll deploy more. If we bounce before that, I'll enter on confirmation.Monitoring signals:Long-term holder accumulation (on-chain data)Volume patterns (exhaustion)Sentiment extremes (Fear & Greed)Macro shifts (Fed, dollar, metals)Accepting I might be early OR late. I'm okay missing the exact bottom if it means I avoid the pain of being early.
The goal isn't to time the perfect bottom. The goal is to survive the bear market with capital intact so I can deploy when the odds shift in my favor.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Nobody and I mean NOBODY knows where Bitcoin will bottom in 2026.
Not Bernstein analysts.
Not Michael Burry.
Not the "experts" on Twitter.
Not me.
The only thing we know for sure is this:
Bottoms happen when sellers are exhausted, not when analysts say soHistorical bottom calls have been early by 20-50%Markets punish overconfidenceCash is a position (and often the best one in uncertainty)
$59K might be the bottom. It has all the technical hallmarks.
But $52K might be the bottom. Or $45K. Or $67.5K was it and we're already bouncing.
The point is: You don't have to know.
You just have to have a plan for multiple scenarios and the discipline not to blow all your capital chasing the first level that "looks like a bottom."
The Bottom Line (Pun Intended)
If you're reading this and thinking, "But I KNOW $59K is it!" I respect that conviction.
Just remember:
In 2018, people KNEW $6K was it. They were wrong.In 2022, people KNEW $20K was it. They were wrong.
You might be right. Or you might be wrong.
The best traders don't bet on being right. They plan for being wrong.
They layer entries. They keep dry powder. They wait for confirmation.
And when the dust settles and the bottom is actually in, they're still standing with capital to deploy.
That's how you survive bear markets.
Not by calling the bottom perfectly. But by not getting destroyed trying to.
What's your take are you buying now, waiting for $59K, or holding cash until you see confirmation? Let me know your strategy below.
#btc70k
"$59K is the floor!" says one analyst, pointing to the 200-week moving average.
"$60K that's where we bounce!" claims another, referencing the 2021 cycle high.
Polymarket traders are 95% confident #bitcoin drops below $65K. Bernstein analysts say $60K is the bottom. Michael Burry's chart pattern suggests low $50Ks.
Everyone has A number. Nobody has THE number.
And here's the uncomfortable truth: calling bottoms is where portfolios go to die.
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating
Let me show you something that should make you very, very cautious about anyone confidently calling a bottom right now.
2018: "$6K is the Floor!"
December 2017: Bitcoin hits $20,000 all-time high.
Throughout 2018, as Bitcoin bleeds, analysts start calling levels:
"$15K is strong support!" (Lost)"$10K psychological level!" (Lost)"$6K is THE bottom!" (Consensus formed here)
Everyone agreed: $6K was the line. It had been tested multiple times. It was previous resistance-turned-support. The charts were screaming it.
Actual bottom: $3,122.
The consensus was wrong by 48%.
2022: "$20K is the Floor!"
November 2021: Bitcoin hits $69,000 all-time high.
Throughout 2022, the same playbook:
"$30K strong support!" (Lost)"$20K is THE floor!" (Everyone believed this)
$20K was the previous cycle high from 2017. It was a textbook support level. Every analyst had it marked. Retail bought aggressively there.
Actual bottom: $15,479.
The consensus was wrong by 23%.
2026: "$59K is the Floor!"
October 2025: Bitcoin hits $126,210 all-time high.
Now, February 2026, Bitcoin at $67,500. And here we go again:
Analysts: "$59K-$60K is the bottom!"Bears: "$50K worst case!"Extreme bears: "$40K possible!"
Actual bottom: ???
But if history rhymes and it usually does the consensus is early. Again.
Why $59K Sounds So Convincing (And Why That's Dangerous)
Let me be clear: $59K-$60K IS a significant level. The arguments for it aren't stupid.
Here's why people are calling it:
1. The 200-Week Moving Average
Sits around $58K-$60K. Historically, Bitcoin has bounced hard from this level in every bear market.
2. Previous Cycle High
$69K was the 2021 ATH. Bitcoin often finds support near old cycle highs.
3. Realized Price
The average cost basis of all Bitcoin is near $60K. "Long-term holders defend this," they say.
4. Psychological Level
Clean, round number. Feels right.
5. Bernstein's Call
Credible analysts at Bernstein explicitly said, "$60K is where we bottom." All of these are VALID technical reasons.
But here's the problem: They were ALL valid in 2018 and 2022, too.
In 2018, analysts had equally strong reasons for $6K:
Previous support tested multiple times ✓Psychological round number ✓"Whales defending this level" ✓
Result: Wrong by 48%.
In 2022, analysts had equally strong reasons for $20K:
Previous cycle high ✓Strong psychological level ✓"Institutions accumulating here" ✓
Result: Wrong by 23%.
Technical levels don't care about your analysis. They break when sellers overwhelm buyers. And in bear markets, that happens more than people expect.
The Full Spectrum of Predictions (Everyone Has a Price)
Let's look at who's calling what:
The Optimists ($70K-$75K):
Bit Mining's Youwei Yang: "$75K possible low"Some retail: "We already bottomed at $67K!"
The Consensus ($55K-$65K):
Bernstein: "$60K bottom, last cycle high"Many analysts: "$59K, the 200-week MA"Standard Chartered: "$55K worst-case scenario"Polymarket: 95% chance we go below $65K
The Bears ($45K-$55K):
Michael Burry: Pattern suggests low $50Ks10X Research: "$52K possible"Tyler Richey: "$50K-$57K in severe macro downturn"
The Extreme Bears ($40K and lower):
John Blank (Zacks): "$40K within 8 months"Perma-bears: "Going to zero!" (Always wrong, but loud)
Notice the problem?
The range is $40K to $75K. That's a 46% spread.
If "the bottom" can be anywhere in a 46% range, does anyone actually know?
No. They're all guessing with different levels of confidence.
What Actually Happens When You Call Bottoms Too Early
Here's the real cost of being wrong.
Scenario: You have $10,000 to invest.
You see Bitcoin at $85K and think, "This is it! The bottom!"
You buy $3,000 worth. Bitcoin drops to $75K.
"Okay, THIS is the real bottom!" You buy another $3,000.
Bitcoin drops to $67K. You buy another $2,000. Now you only have $2,000 left.
Bitcoin drops to $59K. You deploy your last $2,000.
Then Bitcoin hits the ACTUAL bottom at $52K.
You're out of money. You can't buy. You watch others accumulate at levels you'd LOVE to have, but you're tapped out.
This is the cost of calling bottoms early:
You run out of capitalYour average cost is higher than it needed to beYou feel psychological pain watching it drop furtherYou either panic sell (worst move) or sit paralyzed
The traders who waited? They have dry powder at $52K. They get the best price. They win.
The Four Mistakes Bottom Callers Make
Mistake #1: Confusing "Support" with "THE Bottom"
The trap: "This level has held before, so it MUST hold again!"
The reality: Support levels are probabilities, not guarantees. They hold until they don't.
In 2018, $6K held... until it didn't. Then it crashed to $3K.
In 2022, $20K held... until it didn't. Then it crashed to $15.5K.
Lesson: Support can become resistance. Nothing is a "floor" until price proves it by reversing.
Mistake #2: Anchoring to Round Numbers
The trap: "$60K feels right. It's a clean number."
The reality: Markets don't care about your round numbers. Bottoms often occur at ugly prices like $15,479 or $3,122 not $15,000 or $3,000.
Lesson: If everyone's watching the same round number, smart money will push it just past that to trigger stops and create panic.
Mistake #3: Ignoring Historical Precedent
The trap: "This time is different. We have ETFs now. Institutions are here."
The reality: Every cycle, people say "this time is different." And every cycle, bottoms are lower than the consensus predicted.
2018: "We have futures now!" (Still crashed)
2022: "We have institutional adoption!" (Still crashed)
2026: "We have spot ETFs!" (Still...)
Lesson: New infrastructure doesn't prevent bear markets. It just changes WHO is selling.
Mistake #4: Betting the Farm on One Level
The trap: "I KNOW $59K is the bottom, so I'm going all-in there!"
The reality: You don't know. Nobody knows. If you deploy 100% of capital at one level and it breaks, you're done.
Lesson: Layer your buys. Have a plan for IF your bottom call is wrong.
So What Should You Actually Do?
If calling bottoms is dangerous, what's the alternative?
Option 1: Wait for Confirmation
Don't try to catch the exact bottom. Let price PROVE it bottomed first.
How do you know it bottomed?
Price makes a higher lowVolume dries up on dumps, spikes on bouncesFear & Greed stays below 10 for weeks, then starts risingOn-chain: Long-term holders start accumulating aggressively
You'll "miss" 10-20% of the move. But you'll avoid catching falling knives.
Better to enter at $65K on the way UP than $59K on the way DOWN to $52K.
Option 2: Layer Your Entries (DCA on Steroids)
Don't go all-in at one level. Spread your buys across a range.
Example with $10,000:
$67K (current): $0 (wait)$65K: $1,000 (10%)$60K: $2,000 (20%)$55K: $3,000 (30%)$50K: $4,000 (40%)
This way:
If it bottoms at $60K, you got someIf it goes to $50K, you have the most at the best priceYou never run out of capital
Option 3: Set Conditions, Not Prices
Instead of "I'll buy at $59K," use conditions:
"I'll buy when Fear & Greed hits 5""I'll buy when RSI is oversold for 2+ weeks""I'll buy when long-term holder supply increases""I'll buy when we see capitulation wicks with immediate recovery"
Conditions are more flexible than rigid price targets.
My Personal Take (And What I'm Actually Doing)
Here's my honest position:
I'm not calling $59K the bottom.
Could it be? Sure. The technicals support it.
But I've seen this movie before. In 2022, I was convinced $20K would hold. It didn't. That experience cost me.
Here's what I'm doing instead:
Holding cash. I'm not deploying heavily until I see confirmation.Watching $66K, $60K, $52K. These are my levels of interest—NOT my "guaranteed bottom calls."Scaling in, not going all-in. If we hit $60K, I'll deploy 20-30%. If we hit $52K, I'll deploy more. If we bounce before that, I'll enter on confirmation.Monitoring signals:Long-term holder accumulation (on-chain data)Volume patterns (exhaustion)Sentiment extremes (Fear & Greed)Macro shifts (Fed, dollar, metals)Accepting I might be early OR late. I'm okay missing the exact bottom if it means I avoid the pain of being early.
The goal isn't to time the perfect bottom. The goal is to survive the bear market with capital intact so I can deploy when the odds shift in my favor.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Nobody and I mean NOBODY knows where Bitcoin will bottom in 2026.
Not Bernstein analysts.
Not Michael Burry.
Not the "experts" on Twitter.
Not me.
The only thing we know for sure is this:
Bottoms happen when sellers are exhausted, not when analysts say soHistorical bottom calls have been early by 20-50%Markets punish overconfidenceCash is a position (and often the best one in uncertainty)
$59K might be the bottom. It has all the technical hallmarks.
But $52K might be the bottom. Or $45K. Or $67.5K was it and we're already bouncing.
The point is: You don't have to know.
You just have to have a plan for multiple scenarios and the discipline not to blow all your capital chasing the first level that "looks like a bottom."
The Bottom Line (Pun Intended)
If you're reading this and thinking, "But I KNOW $59K is it!" I respect that conviction.
Just remember:
In 2018, people KNEW $6K was it. They were wrong.In 2022, people KNEW $20K was it. They were wrong.
You might be right. Or you might be wrong.
The best traders don't bet on being right. They plan for being wrong.
They layer entries. They keep dry powder. They wait for confirmation.
And when the dust settles and the bottom is actually in, they're still standing with capital to deploy.
That's how you survive bear markets.
Not by calling the bottom perfectly. But by not getting destroyed trying to.
What's your take are you buying now, waiting for $59K, or holding cash until you see confirmation? Let me know your strategy below.
#btc70k
🔥 BULLISH: 🇺🇸 ERIC TRUMP SIGNALS GOLD → BITCOIN ROTATION $BTC
Eric Trump says profits from gold are likely to rotate into Bitcoin soon, pointing to BTC as the next major beneficiary of capital flows as investors rebalance out of traditional safe havens. $NEAR
MARKET READ:
With gold near record highs, expectations are building that risk-adjusted gains shift toward Bitcoin, reinforcing the digital gold narrative.$XRP
#EricTrump #bitcoin #ADPDataDisappoints
Eric Trump says profits from gold are likely to rotate into Bitcoin soon, pointing to BTC as the next major beneficiary of capital flows as investors rebalance out of traditional safe havens. $NEAR
MARKET READ:
With gold near record highs, expectations are building that risk-adjusted gains shift toward Bitcoin, reinforcing the digital gold narrative.$XRP
#EricTrump #bitcoin #ADPDataDisappoints
Annalee Harns gt29:
Money for pedocriminals and their beloved « bitcoin » 👏
We are at the end of the cryptos story
Internet and epstein files have had reason of it
Bitcoin Deep Dive Feb 2026
Is the market resetting, or already rebuilding?
Bitcoin has gone from the euphoria of Oct 2025’s all-time highs around $126k to a sharp, volatility-heavy correction. Over the past few weeks, price slid into the low $60ks before rebounding into the mid-$60ks to $78k range, depending on timeframe and exchange.
This isn’t a routine pullback. The speed and structure of the move point to forced deleveraging, ETF-driven reallocations, and a reshuffling of who actually holds risk here.
Executive summary
The data lines up around a structural reset, not a breakdown.
Leverage got flushed. ETF flows flipped negative. On-chain activity didn’t collapse. Exchange reserves didn’t spike into panic territory. That combination matters. It suggests messy reallocation, not systemic failure.
The market needs confirmation before a new trend forms. The clean signals to watch are simple:
ETF flows stabilising and turning positiveA sustained reclaim of $80k–$85k with volumeOr, on the downside, a decisive break below the ~$60k structural zone
Until then, this is a fragile, range-driven market.
What the key data is actually saying
1) Price action: sharp drawdown, uneven bounce
Intra-week lows tagged the ~$60k area. Since then, price has bounced, but unevenly, with different exchanges showing highs anywhere from mid-$60ks to the high-$70ks. The weekly drawdown was one of the largest since 2022 in several datasets.
That kind of move resets market structure. Relief rallies can happen, but until Bitcoin puts in higher highs and holds them, the bias stays corrective.
Takeaway: Bounces are tradable, but the trend isn’t repaired until $80k–$85k is reclaimed on real volume.
2) ETF flows: institutions are a headwind for now
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged multiple days of heavy net outflows, including roughly $272M on Feb 3 alone. January, in aggregate, showed multi-billion dollar net outflows across products.
This doesn’t mean institutions are gone forever. It means they’re reducing exposure or assign, and that creates mechanical sell pressure.
Takeaway: A sustainable upside move needs ETF flows to flatten out first, then flip positive.
3) On-chain fundamentals: selective accumulation, not panic
Realized Price, which reflects the average cost basis of current holders, sits in the mid-$50ks based on Glassnode data. With spot trading not far above that, unrealized profit and loss is mixed.
Active addresses and transfer volume have stabilised rather than collapsed. That’s important. It suggests buyers are still present, just more selective and price-sensitive.
Takeaway: Network usage isn’t evaporating. Accumulation can happen quietly while price chops.
4) Exchange reserves: pressure without capitulation
Long-term, #BTC exchange reserves continue their multi-year decline. Short-term spikes do happen during panic, but current data doesn’t show a dramatic surge of coins rushing back to exchanges.
That reduces the odds of forced, systemic selling, even if price remains volatile.
Takeaway: Structural supply pressure is lower than in past cycles, but short-term flows still matter.
5) Derivatives: leverage already got cleaned out
Funding rates across major perpetual markets dipped negative at points, and open interest fell alongside price. That’s textbook deleveraging.
This lowers near-term blow-up risk. It also means upside moves tend to be slower until leverage rebuilds.
Takeaway: The market is less fragile now, but also less explosive.
6) Profitability metrics: edging toward stress, not capitulation
Realized profit and loss metrics, especially on the 30- to 90-day window, have been trending down. One commonly cited ratio sits near ~1.5 and falling.
Historically, readings closer to 1 or below line up with broader capitulation. We’re not there yet, but the direction matters.
Takeaway: Risk is elevated, but this doesn’t scream “final bottom” yet.
7) Rotation and macro pressure
Bitcoin dominance has stayed relatively elevated, but during this correction some capital rotated into select alt exposures while $BTC ETFs saw outflows. At the same time, broader macro risk, including equity weakness, amplified volatility across crypto.
Takeaway: Bitcoin can consolidate while rotation plays out elsewhere.
Scenario map: how this likely resolves
Bull case
What needs to happen:
ETF flows stabilise and turn positive over multiple daysFunding rates return to neutral or mildly positivePrice reclaims and holds $80k–$85k with volume
What improves first:
Active addresses and transfer volumes trend higherExchange reserves continue drifting lowerRealized P/L metrics stabilise
Neutral case (most likely near-term)
What it looks like:
Mixed ETF flowsFlat fundingVolatile range between ~$60k and ~$85k
This is where accumulation tends to happen quietly and patience matters.
Bear case
What breaks the setup:
A sharp spike in ETF outflows or custodial inflows to exchangesExchange reserves rising quicklyA decisive break below ~$58k–$60k with increasing open interest
That would open the door to lower structural supports and a real sentiment shift.
Bottom line:
This looks like a reset, not a collapse. The excess got flushed, but the foundation didn’t crack. #bitcoin can rebuild from here, but it’ll need confirmation from flows and structure. Until then, respect the range, manage risk, and don’t confuse volatility with direction.
Bitcoin has gone from the euphoria of Oct 2025’s all-time highs around $126k to a sharp, volatility-heavy correction. Over the past few weeks, price slid into the low $60ks before rebounding into the mid-$60ks to $78k range, depending on timeframe and exchange.
This isn’t a routine pullback. The speed and structure of the move point to forced deleveraging, ETF-driven reallocations, and a reshuffling of who actually holds risk here.
Executive summary
The data lines up around a structural reset, not a breakdown.
Leverage got flushed. ETF flows flipped negative. On-chain activity didn’t collapse. Exchange reserves didn’t spike into panic territory. That combination matters. It suggests messy reallocation, not systemic failure.
The market needs confirmation before a new trend forms. The clean signals to watch are simple:
ETF flows stabilising and turning positiveA sustained reclaim of $80k–$85k with volumeOr, on the downside, a decisive break below the ~$60k structural zone
Until then, this is a fragile, range-driven market.
What the key data is actually saying
1) Price action: sharp drawdown, uneven bounce
Intra-week lows tagged the ~$60k area. Since then, price has bounced, but unevenly, with different exchanges showing highs anywhere from mid-$60ks to the high-$70ks. The weekly drawdown was one of the largest since 2022 in several datasets.
That kind of move resets market structure. Relief rallies can happen, but until Bitcoin puts in higher highs and holds them, the bias stays corrective.
Takeaway: Bounces are tradable, but the trend isn’t repaired until $80k–$85k is reclaimed on real volume.
2) ETF flows: institutions are a headwind for now
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged multiple days of heavy net outflows, including roughly $272M on Feb 3 alone. January, in aggregate, showed multi-billion dollar net outflows across products.
This doesn’t mean institutions are gone forever. It means they’re reducing exposure or assign, and that creates mechanical sell pressure.
Takeaway: A sustainable upside move needs ETF flows to flatten out first, then flip positive.
3) On-chain fundamentals: selective accumulation, not panic
Realized Price, which reflects the average cost basis of current holders, sits in the mid-$50ks based on Glassnode data. With spot trading not far above that, unrealized profit and loss is mixed.
Active addresses and transfer volume have stabilised rather than collapsed. That’s important. It suggests buyers are still present, just more selective and price-sensitive.
Takeaway: Network usage isn’t evaporating. Accumulation can happen quietly while price chops.
4) Exchange reserves: pressure without capitulation
Long-term, #BTC exchange reserves continue their multi-year decline. Short-term spikes do happen during panic, but current data doesn’t show a dramatic surge of coins rushing back to exchanges.
That reduces the odds of forced, systemic selling, even if price remains volatile.
Takeaway: Structural supply pressure is lower than in past cycles, but short-term flows still matter.
5) Derivatives: leverage already got cleaned out
Funding rates across major perpetual markets dipped negative at points, and open interest fell alongside price. That’s textbook deleveraging.
This lowers near-term blow-up risk. It also means upside moves tend to be slower until leverage rebuilds.
Takeaway: The market is less fragile now, but also less explosive.
6) Profitability metrics: edging toward stress, not capitulation
Realized profit and loss metrics, especially on the 30- to 90-day window, have been trending down. One commonly cited ratio sits near ~1.5 and falling.
Historically, readings closer to 1 or below line up with broader capitulation. We’re not there yet, but the direction matters.
Takeaway: Risk is elevated, but this doesn’t scream “final bottom” yet.
7) Rotation and macro pressure
Bitcoin dominance has stayed relatively elevated, but during this correction some capital rotated into select alt exposures while $BTC ETFs saw outflows. At the same time, broader macro risk, including equity weakness, amplified volatility across crypto.
Takeaway: Bitcoin can consolidate while rotation plays out elsewhere.
Scenario map: how this likely resolves
Bull case
What needs to happen:
ETF flows stabilise and turn positive over multiple daysFunding rates return to neutral or mildly positivePrice reclaims and holds $80k–$85k with volume
What improves first:
Active addresses and transfer volumes trend higherExchange reserves continue drifting lowerRealized P/L metrics stabilise
Neutral case (most likely near-term)
What it looks like:
Mixed ETF flowsFlat fundingVolatile range between ~$60k and ~$85k
This is where accumulation tends to happen quietly and patience matters.
Bear case
What breaks the setup:
A sharp spike in ETF outflows or custodial inflows to exchangesExchange reserves rising quicklyA decisive break below ~$58k–$60k with increasing open interest
That would open the door to lower structural supports and a real sentiment shift.
Bottom line:
This looks like a reset, not a collapse. The excess got flushed, but the foundation didn’t crack. #bitcoin can rebuild from here, but it’ll need confirmation from flows and structure. Until then, respect the range, manage risk, and don’t confuse volatility with direction.
I Just Checked the #Bitcoin Chart 📈 — History Is Loud
$BTC Bitcoin has done this before. Over and over.
• 2014: −85%
• 2018: −84%
• 2022: −77%
Every major cycle crushed sentiment before the real opportunity appeared.
Now look at 2026:
$BTC is already down ~50% from the highs.
If we get one more 20% drop, I’m not panicking —
I’m buying spot.
This is how Bitcoin has always transferred wealth:
from fear → to patience.
When the world panics,$BTC history says that’s when long-term conviction is rewarded.
Not financial advice. Just data, cycles, and discipline.
#BTC #bitcoin #Crypto #MarketCycles
• 2014: −85%
• 2018: −84%
• 2022: −77%
Every major cycle crushed sentiment before the real opportunity appeared.
Now look at 2026:
$BTC is already down ~50% from the highs.
If we get one more 20% drop, I’m not panicking —
I’m buying spot.
This is how Bitcoin has always transferred wealth:
from fear → to patience.
When the world panics,$BTC history says that’s when long-term conviction is rewarded.
Not financial advice. Just data, cycles, and discipline.
#BTC #bitcoin #Crypto #MarketCycles
Bitcoin Bounced From 60K Now the Market Is Watching 78K
Bitcoin already showed its hand From the sixty thousand zone price did not just bounce. It moved with strength. In a very short time Bitcoin pushed all the way to seventy one thousand. That kind of move does not happen by accident. It happens when selling pressure is done and buyers step in with confidence.
Most people completely missed this. When price was near sixty thousand the timeline was quiet. Fear was loud but conviction was missing. No one wanted to talk about a bounce. Now that Bitcoin has already moved to seventy one thousand people suddenly feel late again. This pattern never changes.
This is exactly how markets trap the majority. When price is dropping people wait for lower. When price reverses people wait for a pullback that never comes. When price pumps they complain that the move is over. Then when price dumps again they call crypto a scam. This emotional loop is why most participants never build consistency.
Looking at the chart structure the message is simple. Bitcoin defended the sixty thousand zone and moved away from it with speed. That tells us buyers were ready there. After the rebound price did not collapse back. Instead it accepted higher levels and continued upward to seventy one thousand. Acceptance matters more than prediction.
Now the context has changed. Sixty thousand is no longer a panic level. It has become a reference. As long as price stays above it the short term bias remains constructive. This does not mean the market will only go up. It means sellers have lost control for now.
With seventy one thousand already tagged the next important area sits higher. The zone around seventy eight thousand and above becomes relevant if momentum continues. That area acted as resistance before and markets usually test such zones again. Zones are areas not exact numbers.
The real lesson here is not whether sixty thousand was the final bottom. The lesson is timing and behavior. Opportunities appear when fear is highest and attention is lowest. By the time everyone agrees the move has already happened.
Bitcoin has done this many times before. It moves first. Opinions follow later. Right now the market has spoken through price. Anyone serious should listen to that instead of noise.
$BTC
#WhenWillBTCRebound #bitcoin #BTC
Most people completely missed this. When price was near sixty thousand the timeline was quiet. Fear was loud but conviction was missing. No one wanted to talk about a bounce. Now that Bitcoin has already moved to seventy one thousand people suddenly feel late again. This pattern never changes.
This is exactly how markets trap the majority. When price is dropping people wait for lower. When price reverses people wait for a pullback that never comes. When price pumps they complain that the move is over. Then when price dumps again they call crypto a scam. This emotional loop is why most participants never build consistency.
Looking at the chart structure the message is simple. Bitcoin defended the sixty thousand zone and moved away from it with speed. That tells us buyers were ready there. After the rebound price did not collapse back. Instead it accepted higher levels and continued upward to seventy one thousand. Acceptance matters more than prediction.
Now the context has changed. Sixty thousand is no longer a panic level. It has become a reference. As long as price stays above it the short term bias remains constructive. This does not mean the market will only go up. It means sellers have lost control for now.
With seventy one thousand already tagged the next important area sits higher. The zone around seventy eight thousand and above becomes relevant if momentum continues. That area acted as resistance before and markets usually test such zones again. Zones are areas not exact numbers.
The real lesson here is not whether sixty thousand was the final bottom. The lesson is timing and behavior. Opportunities appear when fear is highest and attention is lowest. By the time everyone agrees the move has already happened.
Bitcoin has done this many times before. It moves first. Opinions follow later. Right now the market has spoken through price. Anyone serious should listen to that instead of noise.
$BTC
#WhenWillBTCRebound #bitcoin #BTC
$BTC Shorts became aggressive around the Level from $68k to $70k. The funding spiked negative with a high amount of Open Interest falling apart. $LA $API3
In the last 2 days, Market makers rekt a longs as well as shorts. Market kept bleeding and just as I said "It is becoming too easy to short." Everyone is shorting it.
The volume since the 60k bottom has been negligible and isn't supporting the price increse until now. If it gets volume, and breaks above $72k, we can talk some small timeframe bullish PA but until then this bounce is just a typical bear market bounce or shall I say "dead cat bounce".
Typically funding turning negative meanwhile we are in a macro bullish structure is a bullish thing but when macro uptrend is broekn?
No it isn't telling anything. In a bear market at most bounces you'll see funding negative and still prices go down.
At this time, if you ask me for a miracle event that can save Bitcoin, it is to have a canon event, news that can bring sufficient volume for us to break that $89k region and reclaim it.
What do you guys think?
#BTC #BTCUSDT #bitcoin
In the last 2 days, Market makers rekt a longs as well as shorts. Market kept bleeding and just as I said "It is becoming too easy to short." Everyone is shorting it.
The volume since the 60k bottom has been negligible and isn't supporting the price increse until now. If it gets volume, and breaks above $72k, we can talk some small timeframe bullish PA but until then this bounce is just a typical bear market bounce or shall I say "dead cat bounce".
Typically funding turning negative meanwhile we are in a macro bullish structure is a bullish thing but when macro uptrend is broekn?
No it isn't telling anything. In a bear market at most bounces you'll see funding negative and still prices go down.
At this time, if you ask me for a miracle event that can save Bitcoin, it is to have a canon event, news that can bring sufficient volume for us to break that $89k region and reclaim it.
What do you guys think?
#BTC #BTCUSDT #bitcoin
$BTC Title: BTC Update: Bitcoin is Bullish Again! 🚀
Short Analysis:
Bitcoin recently touched $60,000 and jumped back up very quickly. This shows that buyers are very strong at lower prices. Right now, BTC is trading near $70,000.
What to expect next?
Upward Target: If Bitcoin stays above $70,000, it can go to $72,000 or even $74,000 very soon.
Support Level: If the price drops, $66,500 is a strong area where it might stop falling.
My Opinion: The market looks healthy. It is a good time to watch the charts closely. Don't FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), wait for clear moves!
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #trading #BinanceSqure
Short Analysis:
Bitcoin recently touched $60,000 and jumped back up very quickly. This shows that buyers are very strong at lower prices. Right now, BTC is trading near $70,000.
What to expect next?
Upward Target: If Bitcoin stays above $70,000, it can go to $72,000 or even $74,000 very soon.
Support Level: If the price drops, $66,500 is a strong area where it might stop falling.
My Opinion: The market looks healthy. It is a good time to watch the charts closely. Don't FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), wait for clear moves!
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #trading #BinanceSqure
Yesterday Guys, Bitcoin lost $10K. Today, it gained $10K.
Think about it - 8 years to reach $10K.
Now it jumps $10K in a single day, sometimes over and over.
One day, a $70K move in 24 hours won’t even raise eyebrows-$930K to $1M could happen in a blink.
#bitcoin #MarketRally
Think about it - 8 years to reach $10K.
Now it jumps $10K in a single day, sometimes over and over.
One day, a $70K move in 24 hours won’t even raise eyebrows-$930K to $1M could happen in a blink.
#bitcoin #MarketRally
Bitcoin hits bottom at $60,000 —RSI hits lowest since March 2020
Bitcoin's daily RSI just hit the lowest point since March 2020. Needless to say, this is an extremely powerful reversal signal. This signal alone can mean that the bottom is in. This signal reveals a true overextended bearish move.
One more signal for your entertainment.
In August 2024 $BTC produced a major flush. The day that produced the highest bearish volume was also the day the flush ended. The same happened today.
5th February 2026 Bitcoin hits bottom and produces the highest volume since 5-August 2024. This also reveals the bottom is in.
Additionally, we have the hyper mega strong support zone being challenged, the one I mentioned recently on several articles. We can also see price action reversing above $57,772, that major fib. retracement level mentioned recently as well.
#BTC #bitcoin #WhenWillBTCRebound
Bitcoin's daily RSI just hit the lowest point since March 2020. Needless to say, this is an extremely powerful reversal signal. This signal alone can mean that the bottom is in. This signal reveals a true overextended bearish move.
One more signal for your entertainment.
In August 2024 $BTC produced a major flush. The day that produced the highest bearish volume was also the day the flush ended. The same happened today.
5th February 2026 Bitcoin hits bottom and produces the highest volume since 5-August 2024. This also reveals the bottom is in.
Additionally, we have the hyper mega strong support zone being challenged, the one I mentioned recently on several articles. We can also see price action reversing above $57,772, that major fib. retracement level mentioned recently as well.
#BTC #bitcoin #WhenWillBTCRebound
Michael Saylor’s 100x Bitcoin Warning 🚀
Michael Saylor says Bitcoin could reach $13 million by 2045.
With only 21 million coins ever to exist, scarcity is the game.
His message is clear:
> “Every #bitcoin you don’t buy costs you $13 million.”
Bitcoin isn’t about quick flips — it’s about time, patience, and conviction.
The biggest risk? Staying out.
#MichaelSaylor #MichaelSaylorBTC
$BERA $BIRB $SKR
Michael Saylor says Bitcoin could reach $13 million by 2045.
With only 21 million coins ever to exist, scarcity is the game.
His message is clear:
> “Every #bitcoin you don’t buy costs you $13 million.”
Bitcoin isn’t about quick flips — it’s about time, patience, and conviction.
The biggest risk? Staying out.
#MichaelSaylor #MichaelSaylorBTC
$BERA $BIRB $SKR
$BTC Alright 🔥 Bitcoin sitting at $70,371.57 — that’s a serious level. Here’s a clean, strong English post you can use:
🚀 Bitcoin Update – $70,371.57!
Bitcoin is holding strong above the $70K mark, showing solid momentum in the crypto market. Bulls are clearly defending this zone, and investor confidence looks steady.
If BTC maintains support above $70,000, we could see another push toward the next resistance level soon. However, traders should always watch for short-term pullbacks and manage risk wisely.
Market sentiment remains optimistic, and volatility is creating opportunities for smart investors.
Are we preparing for the next breakout? 👀
#bitcoin #BTC走势分析 #CryptoMarket #CryptoNews #bullish
🚀 Bitcoin Update – $70,371.57!
Bitcoin is holding strong above the $70K mark, showing solid momentum in the crypto market. Bulls are clearly defending this zone, and investor confidence looks steady.
If BTC maintains support above $70,000, we could see another push toward the next resistance level soon. However, traders should always watch for short-term pullbacks and manage risk wisely.
Market sentiment remains optimistic, and volatility is creating opportunities for smart investors.
Are we preparing for the next breakout? 👀
#bitcoin #BTC走势分析 #CryptoMarket #CryptoNews #bullish
Big Bitcoin holders are quietly stepping back — and that’s raising eyebrows.
According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 $BTC now control the lowest share of Bitcoin supply in 9 months, right as price slid hard. In just the past 8 days, this group dumped over 81,000 BTC, while $BTC fell roughly 27% from ~$90K to the mid-$60Ks.
That’s not random.
Historically, this exact setup — whales selling while retail aggressively buys — has often shown up during early bear-cycle phases. Santiment even called it out directly: this transfer of supply from strong hands to weak hands tends to end badly more often than not.
Sentiment across the market reflects that stress.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index just printed 9/100, its lowest since the 2022 collapse.
• CryptoQuant’s CEO noted that nearly everyone has turned bearish.
At the same time, smaller holders are doing the opposite. Wallets holding less than 0.1 $BTC are at a 20-month high, showing retail is stepping in aggressively — very similar to mid-2024, right before another sharp drop.
None of this guarantees immediate downside. But it does suggest caution.
When whales distribute into retail panic buys, price often needs time — and lower levels — to reset before a real recovery can start. For now, this looks less like smart accumulation… and more like risk being passed downstream.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 $BTC now control the lowest share of Bitcoin supply in 9 months, right as price slid hard. In just the past 8 days, this group dumped over 81,000 BTC, while $BTC fell roughly 27% from ~$90K to the mid-$60Ks.
That’s not random.
Historically, this exact setup — whales selling while retail aggressively buys — has often shown up during early bear-cycle phases. Santiment even called it out directly: this transfer of supply from strong hands to weak hands tends to end badly more often than not.
Sentiment across the market reflects that stress.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index just printed 9/100, its lowest since the 2022 collapse.
• CryptoQuant’s CEO noted that nearly everyone has turned bearish.
At the same time, smaller holders are doing the opposite. Wallets holding less than 0.1 $BTC are at a 20-month high, showing retail is stepping in aggressively — very similar to mid-2024, right before another sharp drop.
None of this guarantees immediate downside. But it does suggest caution.
When whales distribute into retail panic buys, price often needs time — and lower levels — to reset before a real recovery can start. For now, this looks less like smart accumulation… and more like risk being passed downstream.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
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