Based on observations and summaries of the past few bull markets, the price of Bitcoin usually falls within 14 to 28 days before the halving.

In the 2016 halving cycle, Bitcoin experienced a 40% drop; and during the 2020 halving, the price also fell by 20%. As recently as late March 2024, the price of Bitcoin also experienced a 17% decline. Considering that there are about 18 days left until the next halving, we can't help but ask: Will there be another significant drop?

The recent sharp market decline was mainly driven by rising Treasury yields and growing inflation concerns. Investors began to feel less confident about the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, while demand for specialized exchange-traded funds also cooled, which was the main reason for the recent increase in selling pressure.

The current market situation is similar to the trend in June and July last year. The price first created a high point, then experienced a deep correction, and then tried to rise again and tested the previous support level. The difference is that last year's second high was a false breakthrough of the previous high, while this time it was a rebound and failed to break through the previous high and weakened.

The long structure is currently in a state of destruction. Previously, it was a process of pull-up-adjustment-secondary rush. When the price stabilized at 68,000, the market showed a bullish advantage and showed the need to continue to rush higher. However, after many days of wandering, it unexpectedly fell below the middle track, ending the trend of the secondary rush and ushering in a secondary test of the previous low. The previous order wall was at 59,000, which is also the position where the dealer may enter the market.

If the price can form a false break near $60,000 and successfully recover, and then maintain consolidation at the bottom, it will be a godsend opportunity and the best time to buy the bottom. Even on the weekly chart, even if there is a long lower shadow this week, it is a weak signal, which may mean that there will be a demand for bottoming out next week, so it is not advisable to enter the market blindly in the near future.

On the 4-hour chart, the price first fell below the lower rail of the ascending triangle, and then fell below the neckline of the W bottom, changing from strong strength to wide fluctuations. The price has now fallen back to 61.8% of the rise from $60,800. There is some support and there may be demand for a rebound in the short term. However, $68,500 has now become a strong resistance. Only after breaking through this level will there be room for growth.

In general, the general trend is still bullish, and we believe that the halving will come. But short-term adjustments also provide opportunities, especially in the spot market. This decline is very similar to the second decline last year, so if the price can form a false break near $60,000 and successfully recover, it will be the best opportunity for the spot market. There is no obvious stop-loss signal in the short term, and it can only be regarded as a small rebound. The previous order wall and key support are between $60,000 and $59,000, and above this area are healthy adjustment ranges.

Double benefits

Federal Reserve's Mester said that interest rate cuts might be initiated in June. This news is somewhat similar to the general environment of previous bull markets.

1. Bitcoin halving in April

2. Interest rates will be lowered in the second half of the year, and part of the US savings is expected to flow into BTC

Driven by the dual benefits, Bitcoin may usher in a unilateral rise, so we must cherish the callback before the halving.