August core CPI came in at +0.3% MoM and markets have now priced in nearly 90% chance of a 25 bp hike this week. I personally expect the Fed to deliver that hike. Inflation is still sticky enough that they can’t afford to stay on hold but I don’t see this as the start of a long aggressive hiking cycle. More like a one-and-done or maybe two moves total to keep credibility. If the hike lands here’s how I see the reaction: BTC – short-term volatility and possible dip, but medium-term I stay bullish. Higher rates usually hurt risk assets initially yet Bitcoin has already priced in a lot of the hawkishness. Once the dust settles liquidity flows and ETF demand should support it again. Tech stocks – clearly bearish in the short run. Higher discount rates hit growth names hard. Nasdaq will feel the pressure. Gold – mixed to mildly bullish. Rate hikes are dollar-positive but any risk-off move or geopolitical noise can still push gold higher. My own plan: I’m holding my long-term BTC bag and adding on any sharp dips. No fresh long on tech until we see the reaction. Gold I keep as a small hedge. What do you guys think — one-and-done or the start of something bigger? Drop your view and share your trades. #FedRateWatch
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#FedRateWatch – FOMC September: What’s the Fed’s Next Move? August core CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month, and the market is now pricing almost a 90% chance of a 25 bp rate hike this week. In my view, the Fed will deliver that hike. Inflation is still sticky in services and shelter, and the labour market, while cooling, is not weak enough for the Fed to pause.
I don’t see this as the start of a long hiking cycle. One more 25 bp move looks more like a “final tightening” to show the Fed is still serious, rather than the beginning of a multi-meeting path higher. After this, the bar for further hikes will be very high unless inflation re-accelerates sharply. If the 25 bp hike lands:
BTC: Short-term mildly bearish (liquidity squeeze + risk-off sentiment), but the medium-term outlook remains constructive as long as we don’t get a series of hikes. I expect a quick dip-and-recover pattern.
Tech stocks: More sensitive to higher rates. Growth names could see pressure, especially high-multiple stocks.
Gold: Usually benefits from rate-hike uncertainty and any sign of economic slowdown, so I lean mildly bullish on gold in the days after the decision.
My plan: I’m keeping my core BTC position intact and will look to add on any sharp post-FOMC dip. For gold I’m already holding a small position and may scale in if we see a clean break higher. Tech stocks I’m staying light – no aggressive new longs until the rate path becomes clearer. What’s your view? Are you positioning for a one-and-done hike or bracing for more? Share your BTC / gold / tech trades below! #FedRateWatch