August core CPI came in at +0.3% MoM and markets have now priced in nearly 90% chance of a 25 bp hike this week. I personally expect the Fed to deliver that hike. Inflation is still sticky enough that they can’t afford to stay on hold but I don’t see this as the start of a long aggressive hiking cycle. More like a one-and-done or maybe two moves total to keep credibility. If the hike lands here’s how I see the reaction: BTC – short-term volatility and possible dip, but medium-term I stay bullish. Higher rates usually hurt risk assets initially yet Bitcoin has already priced in a lot of the hawkishness. Once the dust settles liquidity flows and ETF demand should support it again. Tech stocks – clearly bearish in the short run. Higher discount rates hit growth names hard. Nasdaq will feel the pressure. Gold – mixed to mildly bullish. Rate hikes are dollar-positive but any risk-off move or geopolitical noise can still push gold higher. My own plan: I’m holding my long-term BTC bag and adding on any sharp dips. No fresh long on tech until we see the reaction. Gold I keep as a small hedge. What do you guys think — one-and-done or the start of something bigger? Drop your view and share your trades. #FedRateWatch
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Early this morning, the Fed’s rate hike has landed: 25 basis points, 3.75%–4%, passed unanimously.
To be honest, the hike itself was already expected by the market, with a 93% probability—there wasn’t much suspense. But the truly surprising part was the dot plot—of the 18 officials, 16 believe there will be another rate hike this year. By the end of the year, the median rate hit 4.1%, and it stays at 4.1% in 2027. The message is very clear: rate hikes are not a one-off; high rates need to be maintained for a long time.
Earlier, the market was still fantasizing that after this round, they’d cut rates. Now that fantasy is shattered. When Waller (Wosh) stepped up, he went straight for the first fire—burning pretty intensely, leaving Trump with no face at all. Trump had previously said rates should be cut to below 1%, but the Fed directly raised rates, and also hinted that more hikes may follow.
Back to the crypto world: these past two days, the drop has been truly brutal. The Clear Act didn’t pass, and the Fed turned more hawkish again—double whammy. BTC fell from 79,000 to 75,000. ETH dropped even more, with 120,000 liquidations.
But I actually think this kind of concentrated release of bad news isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Everything that needed to drop has dropped; everything that needed to get liquidated has been liquidated. Once the market digests it, it should enter the next phase with a lighter load. Now BTC is holding around 75,000, which suggests there are buyers stepping in at this level.
Of course, I’m not saying a rally is coming immediately. Short-term pressure will definitely remain. The macro environment is poor, and regulation is still uncertain—so we may need to grind through the base for a while. But if you look further ahead, these are just interludes.
The rate-hike cycle will eventually end, and regulation will eventually become clear.
These things don’t change Bitcoin’s underlying value.
At 4 p.m., I’ll chat in the group about “After the rate hike lands, how do we go from here?”—I’ll share my outlook and my trading plan. If you’re interested, come join.
Thank you to all the fans who have walked with me every step of the way, thank you to all the Binance Square hosts I’ve met along the way, thank you for everything at the Binance Square... thank you. Zhouzhou 1688, Da Li 7613, Ying Hong, Long Xing Tianxia, Feng Dou 1688, Chao Ji Ba Dan, Tang Yuan, Ting Lan, Brother Ziyou, Help Help, Jing Jing, Myth... thank you $BNB ...
Will the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected this week? Wall Street is debating: will it end the U.S. stock bull market?
After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.
Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.
Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.
This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.
As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.
If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)
If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.
Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.
One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.
Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes! $BZ
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Small steps, disciplined trading. Good luck everyone! 🚀
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#FedRateWatch – FOMC September: What’s the Fed’s Next Move? August core CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month, and the market is now pricing almost a 90% chance of a 25 bp rate hike this week. In my view, the Fed will deliver that hike. Inflation is still sticky in services and shelter, and the labour market, while cooling, is not weak enough for the Fed to pause.
I don’t see this as the start of a long hiking cycle. One more 25 bp move looks more like a “final tightening” to show the Fed is still serious, rather than the beginning of a multi-meeting path higher. After this, the bar for further hikes will be very high unless inflation re-accelerates sharply. If the 25 bp hike lands:
BTC: Short-term mildly bearish (liquidity squeeze + risk-off sentiment), but the medium-term outlook remains constructive as long as we don’t get a series of hikes. I expect a quick dip-and-recover pattern.
Tech stocks: More sensitive to higher rates. Growth names could see pressure, especially high-multiple stocks.
Gold: Usually benefits from rate-hike uncertainty and any sign of economic slowdown, so I lean mildly bullish on gold in the days after the decision.
My plan: I’m keeping my core BTC position intact and will look to add on any sharp post-FOMC dip. For gold I’m already holding a small position and may scale in if we see a clean break higher. Tech stocks I’m staying light – no aggressive new longs until the rate path becomes clearer. What’s your view? Are you positioning for a one-and-done hike or bracing for more? Share your BTC / gold / tech trades below! #FedRateWatch
#cpiwatch Nonfarm payrolls just beat expectations again… and now everyone’s staring at the upcoming CPI print like it’s the final boss. 😅 Honestly, I’m leaning toward the Fed holding rates for now. The labor market is still solid but not overheating the way it was last year, and any surprise on the inflation side could still force them to stay cautious. A hike right after strong jobs data feels a bit aggressive unless CPI comes in really hot. Personally I’m slightly bullish on gold right now as a hedge, and I’ve been slowly adding to my BTC position on dips. Stocks look mixed — tech is still holding up but I’m not going all-in until we see how the Fed reacts. What’s your take? Hiking or holding? And are you more bullish or bearish heading into this CPI? #CPIWatch