Hey, welcome to this dramatic ETF final battle!
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around 45,500. The market fluctuated sideways last night. However, the sudden "fake news" in the early morning caused the market to experience a sharp rise and fall in a short period of time. Although the SEC chairman later came out to clarify that the SEC's Twitter was hacked, the market sentiment was obviously affected, and intraday traders turned their attention to Ethereum. Interestingly, Asian and American traders showed different confidence in choosing trading products, indicating that the market may have completely different trends in the future.
Let’s first look at the technical analysis of Bitcoin:
The 1-hour chart shows that the current trend has already broken down, there is no sign of stopping the decline in the short term, and there is no divergence on the technical side.
The 4-hour Bollinger Band has a large amplitude, and the price is running on the upper track of the Bollinger Band. The mid-line serves as support for rebound. The current effective support is around 45,500. If this support is not broken, the short-term downward trend may be stopped.
The daily Bollinger Bands show that the price has returned to the operating track. The current price is running above the Bollinger Bands. There is no sustained downward trend in the short term. The support of the MA7 moving average has not yet been in place. The current daily support is around 45,000.
Although there is a short-term decline, and there is still no stop-loss signal at the 1-hour level, the support at the 4-hour and daily levels is still strong, especially the 4-hour support has been tested by two obvious rebounds, showing its effectiveness. The key to the current short-term market is support, and only when the support is broken will there be more risk of decline. Based on the current market sentiment, if the ETF is not implemented, the market may continue to be sluggish and volatile.
Next, let’s look at market dynamics and capital changes:
The current market value is 1.789 trillion, and the total market value has dropped by 0.3% in 24 hours. Yesterday, the market value was close to 1.8 trillion, but the sharp rise and fall in the early morning caused the market value to decline rapidly.
The total transaction volume of the entire network was 136 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for 50%, a significant decrease from yesterday, while Ethereum accounted for 16.2% of the market, a significant increase today.
The total market value of stablecoins is 134.6 billion, accounting for 7.54%.
Market data clearly shows that the decline of Bitcoin has led to a shrinkage in market value overall, but the market has not collapsed. On the contrary, Ethereum's strong performance has filled the gap in market value to a certain extent. Bitcoin's current market value is 892.4 billion, with a 24-hour market value shrinkage of 2.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%. The current trading volume is 38.5 billion.
Funding:
USDT's current market value is 94.4 billion, with a 24-hour market value increase of 0.28%, a 24-hour fund increase of 260 million, and a further increase in trading volume, with the current trading volume at 62.1 billion. Asian funds are still flowing in normally.
USDC's current market value is 25.1 billion, with a 24-hour market value decrease of 0.62%, a 24-hour fund decrease of 155 million, and a 24-hour trading volume increase of 11%. The current trading volume is 7.9 billion. US funds experienced a significant outflow at 21:50 last night. Although there was a return, the overall outflow was still in a state of outflow.
The overall market dynamics and capital changes show that the decline of Bitcoin has led to a shrinking market value, but the rise of Ethereum has made up for this loss. Although the market value and trading volume of Bitcoin have declined, funds have not directly flowed out and are still in an inflow state. This reflects the change in market sentiment.
Macroeconomics and news:
In terms of macroeconomics, the core inflation data of the United States, CPI, was released this week, and there was little change in the international risk market, US stocks and US bonds. Although the Federal Reserve is worried that the rise in risk markets will lead to a rebound in inflationary pressure, it is not in the interests of the United States to weaken the US stock market directly. The best result is to maintain the high volatility of the US stock market through the "expected economic" data, ensure that the US index and US bonds maintain their ability to attract money, and maintain the downward trend of inflation. The US economy has not declined significantly under high interest rates, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is small.
On the news front, the ETF results will be the focus tonight. The SEC may release a decision between 20:00 and 5:00 Beijing time, with the Ark ETF being the core. The result will affect the subsequent applications of institutions such as BlackRock and Citadel. Although the false news in the early morning caused market fluctuations, the market is still optimistic about the approval of the ETF. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the uncertainty of the market, especially the selling pressure that may be generated after the ETF is approved, which will take time to digest.
Finally, market summary and trading strategy:
The core of tonight is to wait for the ETF results. Whether it is passed or not, the market may face a certain degree of selling pressure. Market sentiment will determine the outcome of the long-short game. It is recommended that everyone wait patiently and avoid over-trading. Market sentiment is optimistic, but we need to be vigilant about uncertainty and do a good job of risk management. Regardless of the result, the passage of ETFs may mark the arrival of the institutional era, and the survival of retail investors will depend on cognition and ability. Let us wait for market sentiment, stay vigilant, do a good job of risk control, and come on!
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